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    ROST
    Earnings call· Apr 2025(Q1 FY26)

    ROSS STORES Q1 FY26 earnings call ROST

    May 22, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Ross Stores Q1 FY26 — Strong Sequential Sales Improvement Despite Tariff Headwinds

    Ross Stores delivered Q1 FY26 results at the high end of expectations, driven by strong sequential sales improvement throughout the quarter. Despite initial tariff impacts and broader macroeconomic uncertainty, the company is leveraging its flexible off-price model and inventory strategies. Management withdrew full-year guidance due to limited visibility, but remains focused on maintaining value and navigating a volatile environment.

    Highlights

    5
    • Total sales grew 3% to $5 billion, meeting the high end of expectations.

    • Earnings per share were $1.47, meeting the high end of expectations.

    • Monthly sales performance improved sharply month after month for the balance of the quarter, with April showing solid comp growth across transactions, AUR, and units per transaction.

    • dd's DISCOUNT brand continued strong momentum with solid sales and operating profits, comp-enhancing for the quarter.

    • Cosmetics was the strongest merchandise area, and the Ladies business performed in line with the chain average.

    Concerns

    5
    • Comparable store sales were flat for the quarter, with a slight decline in traffic particularly early in the quarter.

    • Merchandise margin declined 45 basis points mainly due to higher ocean freight costs and the initial impact of tariffs.

    • Q2 EPS guidance of $1.40 to $1.55 includes a cost impact of $0.11 to $0.16 from announced tariffs.

    • Q2 operating margin is projected to be 10.7% to 11.4%, including a 90 to 120 basis point negative impact from tariffs.

    • Annual guidance was withdrawn due to limited visibility on customer demand, prolonged inflation, deteriorating consumer sentiment, and potentially fluctuating tariff levels.

    Guidance & targets

    10
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Comparable store sales
    flat to up 3%
    high materiality
    Medium
    Earnings per share
    $1.40 to $1.55
    high materiality
    Medium
    Total sales growth
    2% to 6%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Operating margin
    10.7% to 11.4%
    high materiality
    Medium
    Tax rate
    24% to 25%
    low materiality
    High
    Diluted shares outstanding
    approximately $325 million
    low materiality
    High
    Net interest income
    approximately $29 million
    low materiality
    High
    New store openings
    approximately 90 new stores
    medium materiality
    High
    Share buyback program
    $1.05 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Annual guidance
    Withdrawn
    high materiality
    Low

    Segment performance

    1
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    dd's DISCOUNT
    Continued its strong momentum from 2024 with another quarter of solid sales and operating profits. Business continues to perform well and was comp-enhancing for the quarter.
    Comp-enhancing for the quarter
    solid operating profits

    Operational metrics

    18
    Total sales growth
    3%YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Total sales grew to $5 billion, performing at the high end of expectations.

    Earnings per share
    $1.47vs $1.46 last year
    Q1 FY26

    Performed at the high end of expectations.

    Net income
    $479 millionvs $488 million for the same period in 2024
    Q1 FY26
    Operating margin
    12.2%flat year-over-year
    Q1 FY26
    Merchandise margin
    declined 45 basis pointsYoY
    Q1 FY26

    A portion of this tariff impact was caused by purchase orders for goods that were on the water when tariffs were increased.

    Occupancy costs
    rose by 20 basis pointsYoY
    Q1 FY26
    Distribution costs
    rose by 5 basis pointsYoY
    Q1 FY26
    Buying costs
    declined by 50 basis pointsYoY
    Q1 FY26
    Domestic freight leverage
    20 basis points
    Q1 FY26
    SG&A
    flatyear-over-year
    Q1 FY26
    Shares repurchased
    2 million
    Q1 FY26

    Under the company's 2-year $2.1 billion authorization.

    Store openings
    31
    Q2 FY26
    Tariff cost impact on EPS
    $0.11 to $0.16
    Q2 FY26

    Included in Q2 EPS guidance.

    Tariff cost impact on operating margin
    90 to 120 basis pointsnegative impact
    Q2 FY26

    Included in Q2 operating margin guidance. Estimate based on current tariff levels, but recognizes wide range of outcomes. Excluding tariff impact, merchandise margin would be similar to prior year.

    Distribution center openings
    1
    Q2 FY26

    Expected to cause higher distribution costs, partially offset by lower incentives.

    Comp sales needed to leverage SG&A
    3% to 4%
    annual period or longer term

    Excluding the impact of tariffs, this can vary quarter-to-quarter. In Q1, they held EBIT margins at flat comp.

    Merchandise originating in China
    more than half
    current

    Refers to total merchandise sold, not just direct imports. Direct imports from China are mainly in home and shoes.

    Packaway merchandise
    41%similar to last year
    Q1 FY26 end

    Believed to be well positioned as it arrived prior to tariffs and is unburdened by them.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Sg a OPEX ratioflat%
    Comparable salesflat%
    Store count growth19stores
    Gross margin driversdeclined 45 basis pointsbps
    Share buyback capital return$263 millionUSD
    Inventory position markdown riskup 8%%
    Same sku like for like inflationmodest but broad-based inflationary pressure
    Distribution supply chain cost economicsrose by 5 basis pointsbps

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Tariff Impact on ProfitabilityShort-term pressure on profitability possible; Q2 FY26

    Q1 merchandise margin declined 45 basis points due to higher ocean freight costs and initial tariff impact. Q2 operating margin projected to have 90 to 120 basis point negative impact from announced tariffs, mostly in merchandise margin. Q2 EPS includes $0.11 to $0.16 cost impact from tariffs.

    Mitigation: Working with vendors for better costing, selective price increases while maintaining value umbrella, leveraging closeouts already in the country, utilizing packaway merchandise, and exploring shifts in country of origin (longer-term).

    Limited Visibility for Second HalfSecond half of the fiscal year

    Too many unknown variables limiting visibility.

    Mitigation: Seasoned executive team, flexible off-price business model, strong financial foundation.

    Prolonged Inflation and Deteriorating Consumer SentimentBalance of the year; late June/July

    Inflation has been going on a long time, impacting core customer. Expected tariff impact to start hitting customers in late June/July.

    Mitigation: Maintaining substantial pricing umbrella below traditional retailers to deliver bargains; off-price sector historically benefits from supply chain disruptions.

    Volatile and Uncertain External EnvironmentOngoing

    Unpredictable trade policy, potentially fluctuating tariff levels.

    Mitigation: Making necessary adjustments to best position the company; leveraging flexible off-price model.

    Negative Impact from Border Store PerformanceQ1 FY26

    Texas border stores well below chain average, slightly negative impact to overall chain. Northern border stores also negatively impacted.

    Mitigation: Attributed to long delays for cross-border traffic.

    What to watch in Q2 FY26

    5

    Q2 Comparable Store Sales

    Q2 FY26
    CurrentFlat in Q1 FY26
    TargetFlat to up 3%

    Why it matters

    This will indicate whether the sequential improvement seen in Q1 continued and if consumer demand held up despite inflation and initial tariff impact🌐s.

    For the 13 weeks ending August 2, 2025, comparable store sales are projected to be flat to up 3%.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    Asked for more detail on the sharp sequential improvement in Q1 comps and what's implied in the Q2 guidance. Also asked about strategies to mitigate tariffs in the back half.

    Jim Conroy stated Q1 improvement was broad-based across merchandise, with April performing nicely. Q2 guidance (flat to +3%) reflects their current view. Michael Hartshorn outlined 3 mitigation strategies: better vendor costing, selective price increases (while maintaining value gap), and leveraging closeouts/packaway. Shifting country of origin is a longer-term solution.

    There's 3 very obvious ways to mitigate the cost. The first of which is to work with our vendors and get better costing, which we've done at this point, even in the second quarter. There is, you can pass along the price, but we want to be very careful with price increases, and we want to make sure that we keep our value or pricing umbrella versus mainstream retail.

    asked by Matthew Boss · answered by Michael Hartshorn

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q1 Performance and Sequential Improvement

    Ross Stores reported Q1 FY26 total sales growth of 3% to $5 billion and EPS of $1.47, both at the high end of expectations. Despite a slow start in February, monthly sales performance improved sharply through March and April. The April business showed solid comparable sales growth driven by increases in transactions, average unit retail, and units per transaction, indicating a healthy exit from the quarter.

    02

    Tariff Impact and Mitigation Strategies

    The company is facing significant headwinds from tariffs, with over half of its merchandise originating in China. Q1 merchandise margin declined 45 basis points due to higher ocean freight and initial tariff impact🌐s, including costs for goods already in transit. For Q2, tariffs are expected to negatively impact operating margin by 90 to 120 basis points. Mitigation strategies include negotiating better costing with vendors, selectively passing on price increases while maintaining a value gap, leveraging closeouts already in the country, utilizing packaway merchandise, and exploring shifts in country of origin for future sourcing.

    03

    Withdrawal of Annual Guidance

    Citing limited visibility into the second half of the fiscal year, management prudently withdrew its previously provided annual guidance. Key factors include prolonged inflation, deteriorating consumer sentiment, and the uncertain and potentially fluctuating levels of tariffs. The company noted that the off-price sector historically benefits from supply chain disruption🌐s, which may provide opportunistic buys.

    04

    Strategic Initiatives and Brand Evolution

    CEO Jim Conroy reiterated the long-term vision to contemporize the Ross brand experience through merchandising, marketing, and store environment enhancements. These initiatives are planned as evolutionary changes, not revolutionary, and will be pursued in an expense-neutral manner without significant new investments this year. The branded strategy, particularly in the Ladies business, has been successfully executed, repositioning the assortment to offer true branded value to consumers.

    05

    Consumer Behavior and Category Trends

    While overall comparable store sales were flat, the company observed broad-based performance across income bands, with no significant shift in customer behavior towards functional versus discretionary items. Cosmetics was highlighted as the strongest merchandise area, driven by strong execution and specific brand trends. The Ladies business showed improvement, performing in line with the chain average. dd's DISCOUNT continued its strong momentum, contributing positively to comparable sales.

    06

    Geographic Performance

    The Southeast region was the strongest performer in Q1. Major markets like California, Florida, and Texas performed in line with the chain average, though Texas border stores were notably below average due to long delays for cross-border traffic. Northern border stores also saw a negative impact, but with minimal overall chain effect due to fewer locations.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.