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    SCCO
    Earnings call· Jun 2025(Q2 FY25)

    SOUTHERN COPPER CORP/ Q2 FY25 earnings call SCCO

    Jul 30, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Southern Copper Corporation Q2 FY25 — Strong By-product Performance and Project Advancement

    Southern Copper reported mixed Q2 FY25 results, showcasing robust by-product performance in zinc and silver, which helped offset a slight decline in copper production and overall sales. The company is actively progressing major Peruvian projects like Tia Maria and Los Chancas, while also navigating the complex landscape of potential US copper tariffs and evaluating significant Mexican investments. Management emphasized a strategic focus on value maximization from its operations and maintaining a competitive cost structure amidst market fluctuations.

    Highlights

    5
    • Mine zinc production increased 56% quarter-on-quarter, driven by a 126% increase at the new Buenavista zinc concentrator.

    • Mine silver production increased 15% year-over-year, with refined silver production up 1% quarter-over-quarter.

    • Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 59% in Q2 FY25, up from 58% in Q2 FY24.

    • Operating cash cost, including by-product credits, decreased 18% quarter-on-quarter to $0.63 per pound.

    • Net income increased 2% year-over-year to $973 million, with a net income margin of 32%.

    Concerns

    5
    • Copper production registered a slight decrease of 1.4% year-over-year, totaling 238,980 tons.

    • Total sales were $3.1 billion, a 2% decrease year-over-year, primarily due to lower copper sales value and volume.

    • Molybdenum prices averaged $20.57 per pound, representing a 5% decrease compared to Q2 FY24.

    • Operating cash cost per pound of copper before by-product credits increased 3% quarter-on-quarter to $2.11 per pound.

    • The potential for a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and an intense commercial war between the U.S. and China could impact global copper demand.

    Guidance & targets

    14
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Copper production
    965,300 tons
    high materiality
    High
    Molybdenum production
    28,700 tons
    medium materiality
    High
    Silver production
    22.8 million ounces
    medium materiality
    High
    Zinc production
    173,400 tons
    medium materiality
    High
    Zinc production from Buenavista zinc concentrator
    110,700 tons
    medium materiality
    High
    Tia Maria project operations start
    Initiate tests and some production in H1 2027
    high materiality
    High
    Total Capital Expenditure
    $1.6 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Copper production
    A little bit north of 900,000 tons
    high materiality
    Medium
    Copper production
    950,000 tons
    high materiality
    High
    Copper production
    1,021,000 tons
    high materiality
    High
    Copper production
    1,070,000 tons
    high materiality
    High
    Copper production
    1,070,000 tons
    high materiality
    High
    Copper production
    1.6 million tons
    high materiality
    High
    Zinc production from Buenavista zinc concentrator
    94,000 tons
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Copper
    Production decreased 1.4% year-over-year. Mexico operations saw a 2.5% drop in production, mainly from Buenavista and La Caridad mines. Peruvian operations were slightly lower quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to Cuajone mine. These declines were partially offset by increased production at Toquepala and IMMSA mines.
    Production: 238,980 tonsSales contribution: 74% of total sales
    -1.4%
    Molybdenum
    Production increased 3.5% year-over-year, driven by higher production at all mines except La Caridad. Average prices decreased 5% compared to Q2 2024.
    Average price: $20.57 per pound (down 5% YoY from $21.69)Sales contribution: 12% of total sales
    3.5%
    Silver
    Mine production increased 15% year-over-year, with higher production across all mines except Toquepala. Refined silver production increased 1% quarter-over-quarter, driven by Caridad refinery, partially offset by Ilo.
    Average price: $33.62 per ounce (up 17% YoY)Sales contribution: 7% of total sales
    Mine production: 15%Refined production: 1%
    Zinc
    Mine production increased 56% quarter-on-quarter, primarily due to a 126% increase in production at the new Buenavista zinc concentrator, which is operating at full speed. Average prices decreased 7% compared to Q2 2024.
    Average price: $1.20 per pound (down 7% YoY from $1.29)Mine production: 45,899 tonsBuenavista zinc concentrator production increase: 126%Sales contribution: 4% of total sales
    Mine production: 56%

    Operational metrics

    26
    Copper inventories worldwide
    450,000 tonsdown 28% from 627,000 tons (end of March 2025)
    Q2 FY25

    Sum of London Metal Exchange, COMEX, Shanghai warehouses, and bonded warehouses.

    Copper inventories coverage
    6 days
    Q2 FY25

    Estimated coverage of global demand.

    COMEX copper price premium over LME
    $1.19 per pound27% above LME
    July 11, 2025

    Peak arbitrage difference between COMEX and London Metal Exchange prices.

    Sales
    $3.1 billiondown 2% YoY ($67 million)
    Q2 FY25

    Total sales for the quarter.

    LME copper price change
    -2.3%
    Q2 FY25

    Decrease in LME prices.

    COMEX copper price change
    3.7%
    Q2 FY25

    Increase in COMEX prices.

    Copper sales value change
    -5%
    Q2 FY25

    Drop in copper sales value.

    Copper sales volume change
    -3%
    Q2 FY25

    Fall in copper sales volume.

    Zinc sales growth
    7%
    Q2 FY25

    Growth in zinc sales.

    Silver sales growth
    28%
    Q2 FY25

    Growth in silver sales.

    Molybdenum sales drop
    -7%
    Q2 FY25

    Drop in molybdenum sales.

    Total operating cost and expenses
    $47 milliondown 3% YoY
    Q2 FY25

    Decrease in total operating cost and expenses.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $1,791 milliondown 0.3% YoY from $1,797 million
    Q2 FY25

    Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter.

    Adjusted EBITDA margin
    59%vs 58% in Q2 FY24
    Q2 FY25

    Adjusted EBITDA margin for the quarter.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $3,537 million10% higher than 2024
    YTD FY25

    Adjusted EBITDA for the first six months of the year.

    Operating cash cost per pound of copper before by-product credits
    $2.11up $0.06 or 3% QoQ from $2.05 (Q1 FY25)
    Q2 FY25

    Operating cash cost before by-product credits.

    Operating cash cost per pound of copper including by-product credits
    $0.63down $0.13 or 18% QoQ from $0.77 (Q1 FY25)
    Q2 FY25

    Operating cash cost including the benefit of by-product credits.

    Total by-product credits
    $756 millionup 15% QoQ from $659 million
    Q2 FY25

    Total credits from by-products, increased for all by-products.

    Net income
    $973 millionup 2% YoY from $950 million
    Q2 FY25

    Net income for the quarter.

    Net income margin
    32%vs 31% in Q2 FY24
    Q2 FY25

    Net income margin for the quarter.

    Net income
    14% higherYoY
    YTD FY25

    Year-to-date net income, due to higher net sales.

    Lost time injury frequency rate reduction
    24%
    Since 2023

    Reduction in LTIFR as part of ESG efforts.

    Renewable energy consumption
    39%
    2024

    Percentage of electricity consumption sourced from renewable energy.

    FTSE Russell nonferrous metals subsector score
    60% above average
    Q2 FY25

    Southern Copper's score relative to the subsector average in FTSE Russell sustainability indices.

    Quarterly cash dividend
    $0.80
    Q2 FY25

    Declared quarterly cash dividend.

    Stock dividend
    0.0101 shares
    Q2 FY25

    Declared stock dividend per share of common stock.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Safety24%%
    Unit cash cost$2.11USD/lb
    By product credits$756 millionUSD
    Growth project CAPEX first production
    Ore grade recovery drilling by deposit146,000 metersmeters
    Production sales volume by metal and by mine238,980 tonstons

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Tiaparo Peasant CommunityFramework agreement for the development of the Los Chancas mining projectThroughout construction and operation phases of the project

    Agreement signed on June 6, 2025, for the Los Chancas project in Apurimac.

    Capital programs

    8
    Peruvian projects (general)underway>$10.3 billion

    Investments in Peruvian projects that are being built or for which basic/detailed engineering is being conducted.

    Tia Maria projectunderway

    Benefit: 3,500 jobs during construction; 764 direct and 5,900 indirect jobs upon operation

    Located in Arequipa region. Access roads and platforms 90% complete. 59 kilometers of live fence installed. Expecting much higher expenditures in H2 2025.

    Los Chancas projectunderway

    Located in Apurimac. Framework agreement signed with Tiaparo Peasant Community for development throughout construction and operation phases.

    Michiquillay projectunderway
    Spent to date: 45% total progress (exploration)

    Located in Cajamarca. Drilling program completed (146,000 meters, 59,100 core samples). Geometallurgical study completed. Hydrological, geological, and geotechnical studies about to begin.

    Mexican projects (general)paused~$10.2 billion

    Investments put on hold by the previous government. Conducting talks with current administration to continue rolling out.

    Minera Mexico 2025 investmentunderway>$600 million
    Period spend: >$600 million
    Start: FY25

    Benefit: Modernization and updating assets, improvements in water usage and tailings management, optimization and growth

    Half of the investment for long-term operations viability, remaining for environmental and efficiency improvements.

    El Arco projectunderway

    World-class copper deposit in Baja California. Detailed engineering underway for concentrator, SX-EW plant, water desalinization, logistics infrastructure, and power delivery.

    El Pilar projectunderway

    Benefit: 36,000 tons of copper cathodes annually

    Low capital intensity copper greenfield project in Sonora, Mexico. Will operate as a conventional open pit mine using SX-EW technology.

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    Potential 50% tariff on U.S. copper importsNear-term

    COMEX price $1.19/lb or 27% above LME at peak (July 11)

    Mitigation: Monitoring developments, no specific mitigation stated beyond general positive long-term outlook for copper.

    Intense commercial war between U.S. and ChinaOngoing

    Will affect economic growth worldwide, consequently impacting copper demand

    Mitigation: None explicitly stated, but implies monitoring global economic conditions.

    Lower LME copper pricesQ2 FY25

    Decreased by 2.3% in Q2 FY25

    Mitigation: Partially offset by higher COMEX prices and strong by-product performance.

    Lower Molybdenum pricesQ2 FY25

    Averaged $20.57 per pound in Q2 FY25, a decrease of 5% YoY

    Mitigation: Partially offset by an increase in molybdenum volume of 3%.

    Higher operating cash cost per pound of copper before by-product creditsQ2 FY25

    Increased $0.06 or 3% QoQ to $2.11 per pound

    Mitigation: Partially offset by significantly lower treatment and refining costs (positive variance over 650%) and strong by-product credits.

    Water availability for Cuajone expansionOngoing

    Concern regarding sourcing necessary water

    Mitigation: Working on different initiatives, including testing dry tailings in Cuajone deposit and exploring other options.

    Permits and licenses for Mexican projects on holdOngoing

    Affecting ~$10.2 billion in investments

    Mitigation: Conducting talks with the current administration to secure necessary approvals.

    What to watch in Q3 FY25

    5

    Tia Maria project progress and production estimates

    Next quarterly report or 2026 budget
    CurrentAccess roads/platforms 90% complete; tests/some production expected H1 2027
    TargetUpdated production profile for 2027-2028 and further construction milestones

    Why it matters

    This is a key growth project for future copper production and its progress is vital for the company's long-term outlook.

    We are currently reviewing the information regarding what could be the production at that time in 2027. So we will have more color on this. And we are -- for now, we are not moving our estimates. We want to update them very possibly on the next meeting in the next quarterly report or by -- when we have the new budget for 2026.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    How much of the COMEX premium is being realized, what percentage of sales are COMEX-derived, and the impact of potential US copper tariffs? Also, what are the cash cost expectations before by-product credits, the benefit from lower TC/RCs, and the strategic rationale for investing in the Empalme smelter given current low TC/RCs?

    Management declined to comment on sales composition or COMEX premium realization due to confidentiality. They noted uncertainty regarding tariff levels and acknowledged that higher by-product credits, particularly from silver, are significantly helping to lower cash costs. Regarding the Empalme smelter, they stated that extremely low TC/RCs currently make new smelter investments economically unattractive, but strategically, it remains a possibility for the Americas, and they possess the skills to build and operate one competitively.

    Let me first mention that we are not making any comments on our sales composition or the impact that this price -- huge price arbitrage as we pointed out, it's affecting us and how it is affecting us. This is something that is handled by our commercial team, and we want to maintain some -- maintain this confidential for now.

    asked by Jonathan Brandt · answered by Raul Jacob

    3 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Copper Market Dynamics and Potential Tariffs

    Global copper inventories saw a significant 28% drop from 627,000 tons at the end of March to 450,000 tons by the end of June 2025, now covering approximately 6 days of global demand. The market experienced a substantial arbitrage difference, with COMEX prices peaking at $1.19 per pound (27%) above LME prices, reflecting the strong possibility of a 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports. Management expressed concern that an intense commercial war between the U.S. and China could negatively impact global economic growth and copper demand, despite a positive long-term outlook for the metal.

    02

    Peruvian Project Development and Investment Program

    Southern Copper's investment in Peruvian projects, including those under construction or engineering, is projected to exceed $10.3 billion over the next decade. The Tia Maria project, located in Arequipa, has already generated 1,376 jobs (802 local) and is expected to create 3,500 jobs during construction, followed by 764 direct and 5,900 indirect jobs upon operation. Progress on access roads and platforms for Tia Maria stands at 90%. For the Los Chancas project, a framework agreement was signed with the Tiaparo Peasant Community, marking a key milestone. The Michiquillay project's exploration is 45% complete, with drilling and geometallurgical studies finalized.

    03

    Mexican Project Pipeline and Strategic Investments

    The company is actively engaging with the current Mexican administration to secure permits and licenses for approximately $10.2 billion in Mexican investments that were previously on hold. Minera Mexico plans to invest over $600 million in 2025, with half dedicated to modernizing assets for long-term operational viability and the remainder targeting improvements in water usage, tailings management, optimization, and growth. Detailed engineering for the world-class El Arco copper deposit is underway, and the low-capital El Pilar project is expected to produce 36,000 tons of copper cathodes annually using SX-EW technology. Other pipeline projects like Angangueo, Chalchihuites, and the Empalme Smelter aim to bolster Southern Copper's position as a fully integrated copper producer.

    04

    ESG and Sustainability Achievements

    Southern Copper demonstrated its commitment to sustainability and transparency, with its sustainable development report independently verified. Key achievements include a 24% reduction in the lost time injury frequency rate since 2023 and sourcing 39% of its electricity from renewable energy in 2024. All open pit operations received Copper Mark Certification. The company's inclusion in FTSE Russell's sustainability indices, scoring 60% above the nonferrous metals subsector average, and receiving a Tandem Global Award for Mexican Gray Wolf conservation, highlight its strong ESG performance and dedication to biodiversity protection.

    05

    Strategic Zinc Production at Buenavista

    A strategic decision was made to dedicate the Buenavista zinc concentrator fully to zinc production, particularly in areas with high zinc content. This prioritization, which sacrifices approximately 10,000 tons of potential copper production from this specific facility, is driven by value maximization, as producing zinc in these areas is currently much more profitable. This decision is reflected in the company's 2025 copper guidance and the significant increase in reported zinc sales, with expectations for continued high zinc output from this concentrator in 2025 and 2026.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.