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    SIGI
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC SIGI

    Jul 24, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Selective Insurance Group Q2 FY26 — Strong Underwriting Profitability and Investment Income

    Selective Insurance Group delivered strong Q2 FY26 results with double-digit operating ROE and an improved combined ratio, driven by excellent investment income and disciplined underwriting. The company is actively managing its portfolio mix, particularly in Standard Commercial Lines, to enhance profitability and diversify its business, even as this leads to a temporary decline in net premiums written. Management remains focused on leveraging data and technology to drive efficiency and underwriting outcomes.

    Highlights

    5
    • Operating ROE of 13.7% marked the eighth consecutive quarter with double-digit operating ROE.

    • After-tax net investment income grew 18% year-over-year to $119 million.

    • GAAP combined ratio improved 2.2 points from a year ago to 98.0%.

    • Personal Lines combined ratio of 94.1% for H1 FY26 is ahead of the 95% target.

    • E&S segment delivered a strong 91.8% combined ratio.

    Concerns

    4
    • Net premiums written declined 5% for the quarter, with Standard Commercial Lines new business down 22%.

    • Standard Commercial Lines combined ratio was 99.7%, indicating a need for margin improvement.

    • Personal Lines net premiums written declined 8%, with new business down 36% due to competitive auto market and New Jersey restrictions.

    • Observed higher-than-expected frequency in commercial auto liability in H1 FY26, leading to adjusted current year loss ratios.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    GAAP combined ratio
    between 96.5% and 97.5%
    high materiality
    High
    Catastrophe losses assumption
    6 points
    medium materiality
    High
    After-tax net investment income
    $480 million
    high materiality
    High
    Effective tax rate
    21.5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Fully weighted average share count
    $60.2 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Expense ratio
    approximately 31.5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Personal Lines combined ratio target
    95%
    medium materiality
    High
    Capital return through dividends
    20% to 25% of earnings
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Standard Commercial Lines
    Net premiums written declined 5% for the quarter. Decline driven by 3 percentage points from lower new business and 3 percentage points from actions on renewal portfolio, specifically in worst-performing cohorts. Focus on improving margins and diversifying business mix.
    New business premium decline: 22% (Q2)Contractors as % of commercial lines premiums: 43% (2025)Contractors as % of new business: 33% (H1 FY26)Retention in best-performing renewal cohort: 89% (Q2)Retention in worst-performing renewal cohort: 55% (Q2, down from 81%)Renewal rate in worst-performing renewal cohort: 18% (Q2, up from 11.5%)Contractors retention decline: ~2 points YoY
    -5%99.7% combined ratio
    E&S
    Strong quarter with disciplined underwriting. Increased competition and disciplined approach contributed to premium decline. E&S market seeing more capacity.
    Renewal pure price increase: 3.4%Casualty rate momentum: continuedProperty pricing: slightly negative
    -2%91.8% combined ratio
    Personal Lines
    Profitability continues to improve despite higher non-catastrophe property losses in Q2. Results stronger outside of New Jersey. New business impacted by competitive auto market and New Jersey exposure restrictions.
    Target business decline: 2%New business decrease: 36% (Q2)Homeowners premium: relatively flatAverage new business home values: >$1 million (H1 FY26)Target market business as % of homeowners premium: ~70%Renewal pure price increase: 8.9%
    -8%95.5% combined ratio (Q2); 94.1% combined ratio (YTD H1 FY26)

    Operational metrics

    20
    Operating ROE
    13.7%
    Q2 FY26

    Eighth consecutive quarter with double-digit operating ROE.

    ROE
    14.8%
    Q2 FY26
    Operating ROE
    12.8%ahead of our 12% target
    YTD H1 FY26
    ROE
    13%
    YTD H1 FY26
    After-tax net investment income
    $119 millionup 18% year-over-year
    Q2 FY26
    Average credit quality (investment portfolio)
    A+
    Q2 FY26
    Duration (investment portfolio)
    4.3 years
    Q2 FY26
    Share repurchases
    $32 million
    Q2 FY26

    Returned nearly 50% of after-tax net income to shareholders through regular dividends and share repurchases.

    Remaining share repurchase authorization
    $108 million
    Q2 FY26
    Expense ratio
    31.5%consistent with our expectation
    FY26
    Casualty excess of loss treaty protection
    $87 million
    effective July 1
    Property per risk treaty coverage
    $115 millionup $20 million from expiring program
    effective July 1

    Reflects continued business growth and higher insured values.

    Prior year casualty reserve development
    no
    Q2 FY26

    No prior year casualty reserve development at the segment or line of business level.

    Commercial auto underlying loss ratio
    69.7%up modestly compared to full year 2025
    YTD H1 FY26

    Includes current accident year frequency adjusted and previously contemplated severity growth pressures, partially offset by earned renewal pure price.

    General liability underlying loss ratio
    0.8 points highercompared to full year 2025
    YTD H1 FY26

    Reflecting elevated severity trends embedded in current accident year planning.

    Renewal pure price increase (ex-workers' comp)
    7.4%
    Q2 FY26
    General liability pricing increase
    8.7%
    Q2 FY26
    Commercial auto pricing increase
    9.3%up 20 basis points sequentially
    Q2 FY26
    Auto liability pricing increase
    approached 13%
    Q2 FY26

    Demonstrating ability to deliver rate increases where most needed.

    Property renewal premium increase
    7.7%
    Q2 FY26

    Industry KPIs

    9
    MetricValueDetails
    Combined ratio98.0% (GAAP); 95.5% (Personal Lines Q2); 94.1% (Personal Lines YTD H1); 91.8% (E&S); 99.7% (Standard Commercial Lines)%
    Capital returns$32 million (share repurchases); $108 million (remaining authorization)USD
    ROE operating ROE13.7% (operating ROE); 14.8% (ROE)%
    Catastrophe losses5.6 pointspoints
    Net investment income$119 millionUSD
    Retention persistency89% (best-performing cohort); 55% (worst-performing cohort); approximately 2 points (contractors decline)%
    Net premiums written earned-5% (total); -8% (Personal Lines); -2% (E&S)%
    Renewal rate change pricing7.4% (ex-workers' comp); 8.7% (general liability); 9.3% (commercial auto); approached 13% (auto liability); 8.9% (Personal Lines)%
    Prior year reserve developmentno

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Montana and WyomingGeographic expansion by opening for business in new states.

    Opened for business in Montana and Wyoming on July 1, pleased with early traction and agency engagement.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Elevated commercial casualty loss trends (general liability and commercial auto liability)Ongoing

    Industry generating underwriting loss in GL and commercial auto liability. GL adverse development of >$10B in CY24 and >$8B in CY25.

    Mitigation: Disciplined pricing, portfolio mix improvement, focus on individual risk selection, and advocacy for tort reform.

    Increased competition in E&S marketCurrent quarter

    Contributed to 2% premium decline in E&S.

    Mitigation: Leveraging strong margins, 50-state footprint, and expanded distribution channel to support profitable growth and diversification.

    Competitive auto market and exposure management in New Jersey impacting Personal Lines new businessCurrent quarter

    Personal Lines new business decreased 36% in Q2.

    Mitigation: Focus on growth in target market (average new business home values >$1M, ~70% of homeowners premium) where rates are adequate, and continued refinement of segmentation strategy.

    Higher-than-expected frequency in commercial auto liabilityH1 FY26

    Commercial auto underlying loss ratio up modestly YTD H1 FY26 compared to FY25.

    Mitigation: Adjusted current year loss ratios accordingly; prudent reaction to data.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    4

    Standard Commercial Lines Net Premiums Written Growth

    Next quarter / H2 FY26
    Current-5% (Q2 FY26)
    TargetImprovement from current decline as mix improvement actions earn through.

    Why it matters

    Indicates the effectiveness of portfolio rebalancing strategy and potential for future profitable growth.

    While these actions take time to earn through the portfolio, we believe they position us for improved underlying margins and more attractive risk-adjusted returns.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Inquired about the drivers of the 5% premium decline in commercial lines, specifically if the actions taken this quarter were more aggressive than prior quarters, and the impact of new business decline.

    John Marchioni stated that the pricing stance and new business decline are consistent with prior quarters. He noted pressure on hit ratios (down to low 30s from mid-30s) due to competitive market and the need for pricing to reflect loss trends in GL. He emphasized proactive efforts to find high-quality accounts despite market conditions.

    The decline in new business in Q1 was pretty consistent with what we saw in Q2. I think there's a market dynamic here that will certainly drive that. And we've seen pressure on hit ratios in Commercial Lines where our traditional hit ratios would have been in the mid-30s, and I would say they're probably down into the low 30s at this point.

    asked by Michael Phillips · answered by John J. Marchioni

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Milestones and Expansion

    Selective celebrated its 100th anniversary and 50th year as a public company, marked by ringing the NASDAQ closing bell. The company opened a new corporate headquarters in Short Hills, NJ, to broaden access to talent and improve connectivity. Additionally, Selective expanded its geographic footprint by opening for business in Montana and Wyoming on July 1, noting early positive traction and agency engagement, reflecting a commitment to disciplined growth.

    02

    Portfolio Mix Improvement Strategy

    The company is actively managing its Standard Commercial Lines portfolio, accepting a 5% decline in net premiums written for the quarter to enhance long-term returns. This strategy involves maintaining high retention (89%) in best-performing cohorts while significantly reducing retention (from 81% to 55%) in underperforming cohorts, where renewal rates increased from 11.5% to 18%. These actions are intended to improve portfolio economics and diversify the business mix over time.

    03

    Commercial Auto and General Liability Trends

    Management observed higher-than-expected frequency in commercial auto liability during H1 FY26, leading to adjustments in current year loss ratios. The industry continues to face underwriting losses in general liability and commercial auto liability, with significant adverse development in GL in prior years. Despite competitive pressures, Selective maintains conviction in its pricing stance, believing that tempering margins in other profitable lines will eventually force broader pricing discipline in casualty lines.

    04

    Reinsurance Treaty Renewals

    Effective July 1, Selective renewed its casualty excess of loss treaty, which now provides $87 million of protection in excess of a $3 million retention, with reduced co-participation in the first layer from 20% to 8%. The property per risk treaty was also renewed, increasing coverage to $115 million in excess of a $5 million retention, reflecting continued business growth and higher insured values across the portfolio.

    05

    Capital Management and Shareholder Returns

    In Q2, Selective returned nearly 50% of its after-tax net income to shareholders through regular dividends and $32 million in share repurchases. The company maintains a long-term target of returning 20% to 25% of earnings through dividends and will opportunistically repurchase shares. This approach prioritizes supporting profitable growth while ensuring consistent returns on equity.

    06

    Headquarters Relocation Impact

    The relocation of corporate functions to a new headquarters in Short Hills, NJ, is not expected to significantly impact top-line growth or underwriting operations, as underwriting is decentralized across regional offices. While acknowledging the inherent disruption of such a move, management noted it affects less than 20% of the workforce over an extended period, and the company will maintain a strong presence in its founding location of Branchville, NJ.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.