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    SO
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    SOUTHERN Q1 FY25 earnings call SO

    May 1, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    The Southern Company Q1 FY25 — Strong Start with Robust Large Load Pipeline and Dividend Increase

    Southern Company reported a strong Q1 FY25, exceeding estimates, driven by utility investments and favorable weather. The company highlighted robust economic development and a growing large load pipeline, particularly from data centers, which supports potential re-evaluation of long-term EPS growth. Management addressed tariff implications, expecting no material impact, and reiterated commitment to affordability and reliability, while also increasing its annual dividend for the 24th consecutive year.

    Highlights

    5
    • Adjusted EPS of $1.23 per share, $0.03 above estimate and $0.20 higher than Q1 2024.

    • Weather-related impacts added $0.08 year-over-year to EPS.

    • Data center sales were up 11% year-over-year.

    • Economic development activity robust with over $11 billion of capital investment and more than 4,000 new jobs announced.

    • Board approved an $0.08 per share increase in annual common dividend, raising annualized rate to $2.96 per share, marking 24th consecutive annual increase.

    Concerns

    5
    • Weather-normal retail electricity sales to all classes were 0.3% lower than Q1 2024, driven by residential usage impacts.

    • Q1 2024 had an extra day, negatively impacting year-over-year comparisons by approximately 1%.

    • Higher operating costs and depreciation and amortization partially offset Q1 EPS performance.

    • Potential cost increases of 1% to 3% due to tariffs, though not expected to materially impact forecast.

    • Q2 FY25 adjusted EPS estimate of $0.85 per share represents a sizable downside relative to Q2 FY24 due to weather and timing of transactions.

    Guidance & targets

    3
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EPS
    $0.85 per share
    medium materiality
    High
    Long-term EPS growth re-evaluation
    Potential reevaluation of the base for long-term EPS growth
    high materiality
    Medium
    Annual Common Dividend
    $2.96 per share
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    16
    Adjusted EPS
    $1.23up $0.20 YoY
    Q1 FY25

    Adjusted earnings results for the first quarter above estimate, with year-over-year growth reflected across all major businesses.

    Weather-normal retail electricity sales growth
    -0.3%YoY
    Q1 FY25

    Lower sales driven largely by usage impacts on residential customer class, partially offset by customer additions.

    Data center sales growth
    11%YoY
    Q1 FY25

    Continued strength in data center sales.

    Office buildings sales growth
    4%YoY
    Q1 FY25

    Continued strength in office buildings sales.

    Transportation sector sales growth
    4%YoY
    Q1 FY25

    Primarily driven by the Hyundai Mega plant in Southeast Georgia.

    Economic development capital investment
    $11 billion
    Q1 FY25

    Announcements totaling over $11 billion of capital investment in electric service territories.

    Economic development new jobs
    4,000
    Q1 FY25

    More than 4,000 new jobs announced in electric service territories.

    Long-term debt issued by state-regulated electric subsidiaries
    $2.2 billion
    YTD FY25

    Issued year-to-date, covering nearly half of 2025's projected financing needs for those entities in the base plan.

    Junior subordinated notes issued by parent company
    $2.4 billion
    YTD FY25

    Issued year-to-date, receiving 50% equity treatment from rating agencies.

    Common stock sales via ATM program
    $1 billion
    YTD FY25

    Entered into forward contracts for the sale of additional common stock.

    Equity and equity equivalents
    $2.2 billion
    YTD FY25

    Collectively, the ATM and JSNs equate to this amount.

    Annual equity issuances forecast
    $350 million
    Annual

    Forecasted through internal plans.

    Total 5-year equity needs
    $4 billion
    5-year

    Fully addressed by current financing activities.

    Tariff cost increase estimate
    1% to 3%
    current

    Current estimate for potential cost increases due to tariffs.

    Dividend increase
    $0.08
    annual

    Approved by the Board of Directors, raising the annualized rate to $2.96 per share.

    Regulatory assets rolling off
    $2 billion
    short term

    Debt associated with these assets rolling off is a big driver of FFO to debt improvement.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debt17%%
    Retail sales growth-0.3%%
    Regulatory rate base growth
    New gas generation builds upgrades
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas4GW
    Nuclear capacity factor gas forced outage factor

    Orderbook & backlog

    5
    Large load pipeline50 GWQ1 FY25

    grew quarter-over-quarter

    potential incremental load by mid-2030s across all three electric service territories; includes some degree of double counting and speculative projects

    Georgia Power large load pipeline52 GWQ1 FY25

    potential incremental load by mid-2030s in Georgia alone

    Georgia Power contracted large load4 GWQ1 FY25

    fully contracted portion of the Georgia pipeline

    Georgia Power committed large load8 GWQ1 FY25

    committed portion of the Georgia pipeline

    Georgia Power near-term pipeline (2028-2029)moving upQ1 FY25

    increased

    shift forward in interest for near-term projects

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    HyundaiMega plant production activities

    Hyundai Mega plant in Southeast Georgia began production activities several months ago.

    Capital programs

    3
    Base Capital Planunderway
    Funding: debt, equity, equity equivalents

    Potential cost increases of 1% to 3% due to tariffs, but no material impact to forecast expected. Financing plan in place to address $4 billion, 5-year equity needs.

    Georgia Power 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)underway

    Benefit: continued investment in existing fleet, plant life extensions, upgrades for more capacity at existing nuclear and natural gas facilities, modernization of hydro facilities

    Filed earlier this year, includes planning resources to economically and reliably serve customers for the long term.

    New energy resources via competitive RFPs (Georgia)underway

    Benefit: 13 GW total, including 8.5 GW of all source or technology-agnostic energy resources

    Successful bidders for a substantial portion of these RFPs expected to be notified in coming months. Georgia Power expects to file for certification of awarded projects in July.

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    Tariff cost increases

    1% to 3% potential cost increases

    Mitigation: Large portfolio of suppliers, strong vendor relationships, existing project contingencies, contractual provisions, potential regulatory approaches, options to deploy alternative resources. Not expected to materially impact forecast.

    Higher operating costs and depreciation and amortizationQ1 FY25

    partially offset Q1 EPS performance

    Negative impact of extra day in prior yearQ1 FY25

    approximately 1% year-over-year negative impact

    Usage impacts on residential customer classQ1 FY25

    driving 0.3% lower weather-normal retail electricity sales

    Return to office trends and customer energy managementQ1 FY25

    factors impacting usage per customer trends

    Industrial outages / project delaysQ1 FY25

    delay in a steel manufacturer expected to come on in Q1

    Mitigation: Baked into full-year numbers, expected in next several months.

    IRA policy uncertainty

    no specific quantification, but discussed as political uncertainty

    Mitigation: Engaging with policymakers to express value and benefits of credits to customers.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    2025 IRP Resolution

    mid-July
    CurrentOngoing
    TargetResolution expected

    Why it matters

    The resolution of the IRP will provide clarity on future resource planning and investments, impacting capital expenditure outlook.

    Resolution of the 2025 IRP is expected in mid-July.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Why is the Q2 EPS guide of $0.85 significantly lower than Q2 FY24, despite a strong Q1?

    The lower Q2 EPS estimate is primarily due to a substantial year-over-year weather differential (milder Q1 2024 vs. slightly colder Q1 2025) and the timing of recurring normal-course transactions within the Georgia transmission system, specifically a sizable asset ownership transfer that occurred in Q2 2024 but is not anticipated in Q2 2025.

    So there's two big factors in there, really. One is weather. Year-over-year, there's a pretty substantial weather differential... And then the other one is really just what I'd characterize as timing.

    asked by Carly Davenport · answered by Daniel Tucker

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q1 Performance and Drivers

    Southern Company reported adjusted EPS of $1.23 per share for Q1 2025, exceeding its estimate by $0.03 and growing $0.20 year-over-year. This performance was primarily driven by investments in state-regulated utilities and favorable weather, which contributed $0.08 to EPS. However, higher operating costs and depreciation partially offset these gains, and the prior year's extra day negatively impacted year-over-year comparisons.

    02

    Economic Development and Large Load Pipeline

    The Southeast region continues to experience robust economic development, with over $11 billion in capital investment and more than 4,000 new jobs announced in Q1 2025. The large load pipeline across electric subsidiaries, including data centers and large manufacturers, totals over 50 GW of potential incremental load by the mid-2030s, with 10 GW in project commitments. Data center sales specifically grew 11% year-over-year.

    03

    Tariff Implications and Mitigation

    The company estimates a potential 1% to 3% cost increase for its base capital plan due to tariffs, with the higher end reflecting recent tariff changes. Southern Company leverages its scale, diverse supplier portfolio, and strong vendor relationships to navigate these challenges. Mitigation strategies include existing project contingencies, contractual provisions, potential regulatory approaches, and deploying alternative resources, with no material impact to the financial forecast expected.

    04

    Financing Activities and Equity Needs

    Southern Company's state-regulated electric subsidiaries issued $2.2 billion in long-term debt year-to-date, covering nearly half of 2025's projected financing needs. The parent company issued $2.4 billion in junior subordinated notes (JSNs) and entered into forward contracts for an additional $1 billion of common stock via an at-the-market (ATM) program. These actions, combined with annual equity issuances, provide a clear path to fully address the $4 billion, 5-year equity needs in the base plan, supporting strong investment-grade credit ratings and the journey to 17% FFO to debt.

    05

    Regulatory Processes in Georgia

    Georgia Power's 2025 Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) includes continued investment in existing fleet, life extensions, and capacity upgrades, with resolution expected by mid-July. The regulatory process for 13 GW of new energy resources via competitive RFPs is ongoing, with successful bidders for 8.5 GW of all-source resources expected to be notified soon. Georgia Power plans to file for certification of awarded projects with the Georgia Public Service Commission in July, which will inform updates to the capital expenditure outlook and financing plan.

    06

    Dividend Policy and Track Record

    The Board of Directors approved an $0.08 per share increase in the annual common dividend, raising the annualized rate to $2.96 per share. This marks the 24th consecutive annual increase and 78 consecutive years of paying a dividend equal to or greater than the previous year, underscoring the company's commitment to shareholder value and predictable adjusted results.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.