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    SO
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    SOUTHERN Q4 FY25 earnings call SO

    Feb 19, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Southern Company Q4 FY25 — Strengthened Outlook Driven by Robust Large Load Growth

    Southern Company delivered strong Q4 FY25 results, achieving the top end of its adjusted EPS guidance, driven by robust retail sales growth, particularly from large load customers. The company significantly strengthened its long-term outlook, raising EPS growth expectations and increasing its capital investment plan to serve accelerating demand. Management emphasized a disciplined approach to contracting and financing, aiming for rate stability and credit quality amidst unprecedented growth opportunities.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved adjusted EPS of $4.30 for 2025, at the very top of guidance range, representing 6% growth from prior year.

    • Weather-normalized total retail electricity sales for 2025 were up 1.7% year-over-year, more than double the cumulative growth over the last decade.

    • Commercial sales, led by data centers, were up 17% year-over-year for the second year in a row.

    • Long-term adjusted EPS growth target increased to 8% from 2026 midpoint to 2030, with 8-9% growth expected from 2026-2028.

    • Total large load pipeline increased to over 75 GW, with 26 signed contracts representing 10 GW of fully contracted electric service agreements.

    Concerns

    1
    • Higher operations and maintenance expenses, depreciation and amortization, and interest costs partially offset positive drivers in 2025.

    Guidance & targets

    17
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EPS
    $4.50 to $4.60 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EPS
    $1.20
    medium materiality
    High
    Adjusted EPS Growth Rate
    8% to 9%
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EPS
    $4.85 to $4.95
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EPS
    $5.25 and $5.45
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EPS Growth Rate
    7% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    Average Annual Adjusted EPS Growth
    8%
    high materiality
    High
    Retail Electric Sales Growth
    at least 3%
    medium materiality
    High
    Annual Electricity Sales Growth
    10%
    high materiality
    High
    Georgia Power Retail Electric Sales Growth
    approximately 13%
    medium materiality
    High
    Commercial Sales Growth
    roughly 20% annually
    medium materiality
    High
    State-Regulated Average Annual Rate Base Growth
    approximately 9%
    high materiality
    High
    Remaining Equity or Equity Equivalents Need
    approximately $2 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    FFO to Debt
    approximately 17%
    high materiality
    High
    Equity or Equity Equivalents for Incremental Capital
    approximately 40%
    medium materiality
    High
    Dividend Payout Ratio
    low to mid-60% range
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Dividend Growth Pace
    potentially increasing the rate
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Southern Company Gas (LDCs)
    The 4 state-regulated LDCs have continued to work constructively to make significant investments in safety-related pipeline replacements and other modernization efforts, which have combined to triple their authorized rate base since the acquisition while increasing customer value.
    Authorized rate base: tripled since acquisition
    Southern Power
    Southern Power's portfolio has over 13 gigawatts of capacity across 55 generating facilities in 15 states, including over 7 gigawatts of natural gas generation in the Southeast. Substantially all its assets are under long-term contracts with creditworthy counterparties, and we don't take meaningful commodity risk in these contracts.
    Total capacity: over 13 GWNumber of generating facilities: 55States of operation: 15Natural gas generation in Southeast: over 7 GW

    Operational metrics

    13
    Adjusted EPS
    $4.306% growth from prior year
    FY25

    Achieved at the very top of 2025 guidance range.

    Residential electric customer additions
    39,000
    2025
    Natural gas distribution customer additions
    25,000
    2025
    Industrial sales growth
    1.4%YoY
    2025
    Dividend track record
    78 consecutive years
    current

    Dividend greater than or equal to previous year for 78 consecutive years, with increases every year for the past 24 years.

    Equity needs addressed
    $9 billion
    2025

    Proactively addressed in 2025. Nearly all expected to be issued or settled by 2028.

    FFO to debt
    roughly 15%
    through 2027

    Current credit metric profile.

    Natural gas generation capacity remarketing opportunity
    approximately 1,000 MW
    by 2030

    For Southern Power's natural gas fleet as contracts come up for renewal.

    Natural gas fleet uprates discussion
    up to an additional 700 MW
    future

    Southern Power in late-stage discussions for uprates of legacy natural gas fleet.

    Customer benefits from large load contracts
    approximately $1.7 billion
    2029 through 2031

    Quantified by Georgia Power as part of its certification process for new generation, helping to lower cost to serve existing customers.

    Winter peak electric load served
    over 39,000 MWsecond highest winter peak
    Winter Storm Fern (January)

    Demonstrates value of vertically integrated system.

    Estimated cost per GW of incremental generation
    approximately $2 billion
    future

    Rough rule of thumb for new build generation.

    Recontracted capacity price
    $20 to $252 to 3x higher than current
    future

    Market examples for similar capacity recontracting.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debtroughly 15%%
    Retail sales growth1.7%%
    Regulatory rate base growthapproximately 9%%
    New gas generation builds upgrades
    Recontracted capacity price uplift
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas10 GWGW

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Total large load pipelineover 75 GWQ4 FY25
    Fully contracted electric service agreements10 GWQ4 FY25

    2 GW higher than last quarter; 4 GW higher than a year ago

    Represents 26 signed contracts, nearly all under construction. Load ramps totaling 8 GW by end of 5-year planning horizon, ultimately ramping to 10 GW beyond 2030.

    Late-stage discussions for load10 GWQ4 FY25

    3 GW of which are working through final reviews and are highly likely to progress to an executed contract in the near term.

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Southern CompanyAcquisition

    Acquisition of what is now called Southern Company Gas, marking its 10-year anniversary this summer.

    Capital programs

    1
    Base Capital Investment Planunderway$81 billion

    Represents an $18 billion or approximately 30% increase from forecast 1 year ago. 95% is at state-regulated utilities. Main drivers are new generation facilities, existing infrastructure investments (uprates for gas/nuclear, hydro modernization). Roughly $42 billion (over half) expected to be invested through 2030.

    Risks & headwinds

    2
    Higher operating costs2025

    Higher operations and maintenance expenses, depreciation and amortization, and interest costs

    Data center siting and zoning concernsOngoing

    Legislation introduced on moratoriums or other regulations

    Mitigation: Company emphasizes benefits to existing customers, community involvement of data center partners, and continued project advancement across states.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Inquiring about the confidence in the new 7-8% long-term EPS growth rate beyond 2028, especially considering Southern Power repricing opportunities, and what factors could lead to higher or lower outcomes.

    Management expressed high confidence in the updated outlook, citing the execution around 10 GW of signed projects, 3 GW in final stages, 7 GW in late stages, and a 75 GW pipeline. They highlighted economic expansion, 120 new companies, 21,000 jobs, and 17% year-over-year data center growth. David Poroch added that they aim for the top end of the range and see opportunities for upside.

    we put guidance expectations out there, and they're a target for us to go get. And we'd be pretty disappointed if we didn't achieve near the top end of that. Now 2028 is a long way out, but we do see opportunities out there that provide upside and there's potential to be higher.

    asked by Nicholas Campanella · answered by David Poroch

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Economic Development and Customer Growth

    Southern Company's service territories experienced robust economic development in 2025, with over 120 companies establishing or expanding operations, creating more than 21,000 new jobs. This growth spans manufacturing, automotive, aerospace, and metals industries, alongside significant investments from hyperscalers. The company's vertically integrated model in Alabama, Georgia, and Mississippi Power allows for comprehensive service delivery, supporting this expansion while ensuring regulatory stability and customer benefits.

    02

    Large Load Strategy and Contracts

    The company's large load pipeline has expanded to over 75 GW, with 26 signed contracts representing 10 GW of fully contracted electric service agreements, an increase of 2 GW from last quarter. These projects, mostly under construction, include load ramps totaling 8 GW by the end of the 5-year planning horizon, ultimately reaching 10 GW beyond 2030. An additional 10 GW are in late-stage discussions, with 3 GW highly likely to be executed soon. The regulatory framework allows for bilaterally negotiated contracts with minimum terms of at least 15 years, including take-or-pay structures covering 100% of incremental costs and significant collateral requirements to protect existing customers and investors.

    03

    Southern Power Opportunities

    Southern Power, with its 13 GW capacity across 55 facilities, presents significant growth opportunities. Contracts on its natural gas fleet, particularly from the early to mid-2030s, are expected to reprice at 2-3x higher rates due to increased market demand, with approximately 1,000 MW available for remarketing by 2030. Additionally, Southern Power is in late-stage discussions to uprate its legacy natural gas fleet by up to 700 MW and is exploring new natural gas generation at existing sites and other markets to serve large load customers, all while maintaining its creditworthy counterparty, long-term contract model.

    04

    Accelerated Capital Investment Plan

    Southern Company's base capital investment forecast for the next 5 years is $81 billion, a $18 billion (30%) increase from a year ago, with 95% allocated to state-regulated utilities. This plan is driven by new generation facilities and approved Integrated Resource Plans, including uprates for existing natural gas and nuclear facilities and hydroelectric dam modernization. Roughly $42 billion, over half the total plan, is dedicated to serving projected growth through new generation and transmission expansions through 2030. The plan does not include placeholders for potential capital investments subject to regulatory processes or Southern Power opportunities.

    05

    Proactive Financing Strategy and Credit Metrics

    The company's updated financing plan supports its capital investments and aims to preserve strong investment-grade credit ratings. In 2025, Southern Company proactively addressed $9 billion of equity needs, including $4 billion through ATM forward contracts settling through 2026 and $2 billion from mandatory convertible equity units settling in 2028. A remaining need of approximately $2 billion in equity or equivalents is projected through 2030. The company targets maintaining FFO to debt of roughly 15% through 2027, improving to approximately 17% by 2029, and plans to finance incremental capital with 40% equity.

    06

    Constructive Regulatory Framework and Customer Benefits

    The company's regulatory frameworks in its electric jurisdictions allow for bilaterally negotiated contracts for large load customers, ensuring appropriate pricing to cover incremental costs and benefit existing customers. Georgia Power and Alabama Power implemented multiyear rate stabilization agreements, and Georgia Power quantified approximately $1.7 billion in benefits from 2029-2031 for existing customers due to its large load contracting approach. Recent filings for storm and fuel cost recoveries in Georgia Power are expected to collectively lower rates for customers starting this summer, demonstrating the mutual benefits of this strategy.

    07

    Operational Excellence and Innovation

    Southern Company emphasizes operational excellence, leveraging experience from large construction projects like Plant Vogtle Units 3 and 4. The company has secured labor and equipment through early EPC agreements and reservation payments for upcoming projects. Its teams demonstrated exceptional performance during extreme weather events like Winter Storm Fern, serving a peak electric load of over 39,000 MW. Innovations such as AI tools for crew prepositioning and self-healing networks enhance reliability and accelerate restoration efforts, contributing to the company's recognition as the #1 electric and gas utility in Fortune Magazine's Most Admired Companies for 2026.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.