Inve US ▾
SRSRE

Sempra (SRE) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Utilities· May 7, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Sempra Q1 FY26 — Strong Start with Key Regulatory Wins and Affirmed Outlook

Sempra delivered solid first-quarter results, driven by significant regulatory approvals for Oncor and SDG&E that enhance financial returns and reduce lag. The company affirmed its full-year and long-term EPS guidance, supported by a robust capital plan and strategic simplification efforts. Management is focused on executing its capital recycling program and reinvesting in its U.S. utility businesses, particularly in Texas, while addressing California's wildfire liability framework.

Highlights

5
  • Sempra deployed $3 billion of investment capital in Q1 FY26, on track for its annual target.

  • Oncor received PUCT approval for its base rate review settlement, increasing authorized equity layer to 43.5%, ROE to 9.75%, and cost of debt to 4.94%.

  • Oncor submitted its inaugural UTM filing to incorporate $4.4 billion of T&D assets into rates, expected to reduce regulatory lag.

  • SDG&E filed an uncontested settlement for its TO6 proceeding with FERC, which would increase authorized base ROE to 10.28% with a 54% equity layer, retroactive to June 1, 2025.

  • The company affirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.80-$5.30, 2027 EPS guidance of $5.10-$5.70, and long-term EPS growth rate of 7%-9%.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Annual investment capital
$13 billion
high materiality
High
Adjusted EPS
$4.80 to $5.30
high materiality
High
Adjusted EPS
$5.10 to $5.70
high materiality
High
Long-term EPS growth rate
7% to 9%
high materiality
High
Utility rate base growth
roughly 11% annually
high materiality
High
Total capital plan
$65 billion
high materiality
High
Incremental capital opportunities
approximately $9 billion
medium materiality
Medium
Texas rate base concentration
almost 60%
high materiality
High

Deals & partnerships

KKR Divestiture

Sempra is selling a stake in Sempra Infrastructure. Received FERC and antitrust approvals (Korea, Mexico), HSR period ended, and majority of third-party consents received. Working with Cameron partners and Japanese export credit agencies for remaining consents.

null Divestiture

The previously announced EcoGas sale remains on track to close, contributing to Sempra's business simplification efforts.

Capital programs

South Dallas T&D Projects (ERCOT released) released $2.9 billion

Benefit:4 gigawatts

ERCOT released these projects approximately two weeks prior to the call. The majority are in South Dallas, where Oncor serves, and are part of Oncor's incremental opportunities bucket.

Q&A highlights

Inquired about the quality of the 127 GW load compared to the prior 39 GW, potential rule changes, and timeline for CapEx conversion, specifically if it's within or beyond the 5-year plan.

Jeff Martin and Allen Nye confirmed the 127 GW load is solid and meets SB 6 requirements, emphasizing Texas as "ground zero" for AI infrastructure. They detailed ERCOT's Batch Zero process and RTP timeline, noting that $2.9 billion in South Dallas projects (part of the $10 billion incremental CapEx) were recently released. They clarified that the 127 GW represents "incremental to the incremental" opportunities beyond the base plan and $10 billion incremental CapEx.

“My starting point here Constantine is, I think the terminology I've heard a lot in our industry is the United States really is in the middle of an arms race.”

asked by Constantine Lednev · answered by Jeffery Martin

3 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Oncor Regulatory Progress

Oncor secured PUCT approval for its base rate review, increasing authorized equity layer to 43.5%, ROE to 9.75%, and cost of debt to 4.94%. This decision, along with the inaugural UTM filing for $4.4 billion of T&D assets, is expected to reduce regulatory lag and align rates with current costs, supporting financial strength during elevated capital investment.

The UTM filing, which can be made every 365 days, is expected to result in a final order and updated rates in H2 2026, with interim rates possible by October 4.

SDG&E Regulatory Progress

SDG&E filed an uncontested offer of settlement in its TO6 proceeding with FERC. If approved, this settlement would increase SDG&E's authorized base ROE to 10.28% with a hypothetical capital structure of 54% equity, retroactive to June 1, 2025. FERC approval is anticipated in the second half of this year, further improving financial returns.

Sempra Infrastructure Project Updates

Cimarron wind declared Commercial Operation Date (COD) during the quarter. At ECA LNG Phase 1, feed gas was introduced from the GRO pipeline, initiating the start-up process. First LNG production is expected next month, with substantial completion targeted for summer, leading to revenue recognition from long-term contracted sales.

Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 and Phase 2 construction projects continue to progress on time and on budget.

Strategic Simplification and Capital Recycling

Sempra is advancing its capital recycling program, including the SI Partners transaction and the EcoGas sale, both expected to close in Q2 or Q3 2026. Proceeds from these divestitures will be reinvested in utility businesses, supporting a strategy to concentrate future investments on U.S. utilities and simplify the business model.

This will also strengthen the balance sheet through parent debt paydown and deconsolidation of SI Partners, improving the credit profile.

Texas Large Load & Capital Opportunities

Oncor's 2026 RTP filing included 122 GW of large load (75 MW or higher) and 5.2 GW of medium load (25-75 MW), totaling 127.2 GW of substantiated load. This substantial pipeline, with 271 GW of the total 289 GW queue being data center related, represents significant upside beyond the existing $65 billion capital plan and $9 billion incremental capital, potentially leading to

California Wildfire Liability & Affordability

Management expressed reasonable confidence in legislative progress on wildfire liability (SB 254) this session, citing the CEA's report framing wildfire risk as a "whole of society problem" and acknowledging the current framework's inadequacy. Priorities include putting wildfire victims first, implementing a coordinated statewide risk mitigation approach, and making meaningful progress this legislative session to improve affordability and safety.

Informational hearings are scheduled to begin next week.

Supply Chain and Labor Management

Oncor has proactively managed its supply chain, diversifying its base, securing labor and materials, and expanding logistics. This proactive planning, supported by the Board, has created a competitive advantage, securing needs for the first three years of the base plan and line of sight for the outer two.

The large and consistent future flow of work at Oncor is attractive to contract labor, helping to mitigate potential labor constraints, with contract labor having almost tripled over the years.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.