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    SRE
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    SEMPRA Q1 FY26 earnings call SRE

    May 7, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Sempra Q1 FY26 — Strong Start with Key Regulatory Wins and Affirmed Outlook

    Sempra delivered solid first-quarter results, driven by significant regulatory approvals for Oncor and SDG&E that enhance financial returns and reduce lag. The company affirmed its full-year and long-term EPS guidance, supported by a robust capital plan and strategic simplification efforts. Management is focused on executing its capital recycling program and reinvesting in its U.S. utility businesses, particularly in Texas, while addressing California's wildfire liability framework.

    Highlights

    5
    • Sempra deployed $3 billion of investment capital in Q1 FY26, on track for its annual target.

    • Oncor received PUCT approval for its base rate review settlement, increasing authorized equity layer to 43.5%, ROE to 9.75%, and cost of debt to 4.94%.

    • Oncor submitted its inaugural UTM filing to incorporate $4.4 billion of T&D assets into rates, expected to reduce regulatory lag.

    • SDG&E filed an uncontested settlement for its TO6 proceeding with FERC, which would increase authorized base ROE to 10.28% with a 54% equity layer, retroactive to June 1, 2025.

    • The company affirmed its full-year 2026 adjusted EPS guidance of $4.80-$5.30, 2027 EPS guidance of $5.10-$5.70, and long-term EPS growth rate of 7%-9%.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Annual investment capital
    $13 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EPS
    $4.80 to $5.30
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EPS
    $5.10 to $5.70
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term EPS growth rate
    7% to 9%
    high materiality
    High
    Utility rate base growth
    roughly 11% annually
    high materiality
    High
    Total capital plan
    $65 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Incremental capital opportunities
    approximately $9 billion
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Texas rate base concentration
    almost 60%
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    19
    GAAP Earnings
    $1.37 billionvs $906 million in Q1 FY25
    Q1 FY26

    Reported first quarter 2026 GAAP earnings.

    GAAP EPS
    $1.58vs $1.39 in Q1 FY25
    Q1 FY26

    Reported first quarter 2026 GAAP EPS.

    Adjusted Earnings
    $991 millionincrease from $942 million in Q1 FY25
    Q1 FY26

    Adjusted first quarter 2026 earnings.

    Adjusted EPS
    $1.51increase from $1.44 in Q1 FY25
    Q1 FY26

    Adjusted first quarter 2026 EPS.

    Investment capital deployed
    $3 billionon track for annual target
    Q1 FY26

    Sempra deployed this amount in the first quarter, keeping it on track for its annual target.

    Oncor T&D assets incorporated into rates via UTM
    $4.4 billion
    Since Jan 1, 2025

    Oncor submitted its inaugural UTM filing to incorporate these assets into rates.

    Oncor Authorized Equity Layer
    43.5%
    Current

    Approved by PUCT as part of the base rate review settlement.

    Oncor Authorized ROE
    9.75%
    Current

    Approved by PUCT as part of the base rate review settlement.

    Oncor Authorized Cost of Debt
    4.94%
    Current

    Approved by PUCT as part of the base rate review settlement.

    SDG&E Authorized Base ROE (TO6)
    10.28%
    Current

    Proposed in the uncontested offer of settlement with FERC, retroactive to June 1, 2025.

    SDG&E Hypothetical Capital Structure Equity (TO6)
    54%
    Current

    Proposed in the uncontested offer of settlement with FERC.

    SoCalGas & SDG&E Avoided Energy Cost (Winter Storm Fern)
    $120 million
    January

    Avoided by customers due to effective use of natural gas storage facilities during Winter Storm Fern.

    Oncor Earned ROE (prior forecast)
    just below 8%
    18 months ago

    Forecasted earned ROE for Oncor just over 18 months ago, prior to recent regulatory improvements.

    Oncor Earnings Growth
    30% annually
    Through mid-2027 guidance

    Oncor is growing earnings at this rate through the midpoint of its 2027 guidance.

    Oncor Capital Plan
    $47.5 billion
    Multi-year

    Oncor's solid capital plan, largely indifferent to data center growth.

    ERCOT Total Queue Generation
    450 gigawatts
    Current

    Total generation capacity somewhere in the ERCOT queue.

    Oncor Connected Generation
    164 gigawatts
    Current

    Generation capacity trying to connect to Oncor's system.

    LNG Trade Volume
    60 million tons per annum or about 60 Bcf annually
    Current

    Current global LNG trade volume, attempting to balance supply and demand.

    Oncor Contract Labor Increase
    almost tripled
    Over the years

    Increase in contract labor at Oncor to support construction and capital deployment.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Multi year capital plan$65 billionUSD
    Regulatory rate base growthroughly 11%% annually
    Adjusted EPS dividend growth$4.80-$5.30 (FY26), $5.10-$5.70 (FY27), 7%-9% (long-term growth)per share, %
    Lng capital allocation pivotreducing capital allocation to the LNG space
    Lng export segment disclosureECA LNG Phase 1: first LNG next month, substantial completion this summer; Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 & 2: on time and on budget
    Major regulated project construction progress$2.9 billionUSD
    Allowed ROE equity layer rate case calendar by j9.75% ROE, 43.5% equity layer, 4.94% cost of debt%

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    KKRDivestiture

    Sempra is selling a stake in Sempra Infrastructure. Received FERC and antitrust approvals (Korea, Mexico), HSR period ended, and majority of third-party consents received. Working with Cameron partners and Japanese export credit agencies for remaining consents.

    nullDivestiture

    The previously announced EcoGas sale remains on track to close, contributing to Sempra's business simplification efforts.

    Capital programs

    1
    South Dallas T&D Projects (ERCOT released)released$2.9 billion

    Benefit: 4 gigawatts

    ERCOT released these projects approximately two weeks prior to the call. The majority are in South Dallas, where Oncor serves, and are part of Oncor's incremental opportunities bucket.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Inquired about the quality of the 127 GW load compared to the prior 39 GW, potential rule changes, and timeline for CapEx conversion, specifically if it's within or beyond the 5-year plan.

    Jeff Martin and Allen Nye confirmed the 127 GW load is solid and meets SB 6 requirements, emphasizing Texas as "ground zero" for AI infrastructure. They detailed ERCOT's Batch Zero process and RTP timeline, noting that $2.9 billion in South Dallas projects (part of the $10 billion incremental CapEx) were recently released. They clarified that the 127 GW represents "incremental to the incremental" opportunities beyond the base plan and $10 billion incremental CapEx.

    My starting point here Constantine is, I think the terminology I've heard a lot in our industry is the United States really is in the middle of an arms race.

    asked by Constantine Lednev · answered by Jeffery Martin

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Oncor Regulatory Progress

    Oncor secured PUCT approval for its base rate review, increasing authorized equity layer to 43.5%, ROE to 9.75%, and cost of debt to 4.94%. This decision, along with the inaugural UTM filing for $4.4 billion of T&D assets, is expected to reduce regulatory lag and align rates with current costs, supporting financial strength during elevated capital investment. The UTM filing, which can be made every 365 days, is expected to result in a final order and updated rates in H2 2026, with interim rates possible by October 4.

    02

    SDG&E Regulatory Progress

    SDG&E filed an uncontested offer of settlement in its TO6 proceeding with FERC. If approved, this settlement would increase SDG&E's authorized base ROE to 10.28% with a hypothetical capital structure of 54% equity, retroactive to June 1, 2025. FERC approval is anticipated in the second half of this year, further improving financial returns.

    03

    Sempra Infrastructure Project Updates

    Cimarron wind declared Commercial Operation Date (COD) during the quarter. At ECA LNG Phase 1, feed gas was introduced from the GRO pipeline, initiating the start-up process. First LNG production is expected next month, with substantial completion targeted for summer, leading to revenue recognition from long-term contracted sales. Port Arthur LNG Phase 1 and Phase 2 construction projects continue to progress on time and on budget.

    04

    Strategic Simplification and Capital Recycling

    Sempra is advancing its capital recycling program, including the SI Partners transaction and the EcoGas sale, both expected to close in Q2 or Q3 2026. Proceeds from these divestitures will be reinvested in utility businesses, supporting a strategy to concentrate future investments on U.S. utilities and simplify the business model. This will also strengthen the balance sheet through parent debt paydown and deconsolidation of SI Partners, improving the credit profile.

    05

    Texas Large Load & Capital Opportunities

    Oncor's 2026 RTP filing included 122 GW of large load (75 MW or higher) and 5.2 GW of medium load (25-75 MW), totaling 127.2 GW of substantiated load. This substantial pipeline, with 271 GW of the total 289 GW queue being data center related, represents significant upside beyond the existing $65 billion capital plan and $9 billion incremental capital, potentially leading to

    06

    California Wildfire Liability & Affordability

    Management expressed reasonable confidence in legislative progress on wildfire liability (SB 254) this session, citing the CEA's report framing wildfire risk as a "whole of society problem" and acknowledging the current framework's inadequacy. Priorities include putting wildfire victims first, implementing a coordinated statewide risk mitigation approach, and making meaningful progress this legislative session to improve affordability and safety. Informational hearings are scheduled to begin next week.

    07

    Supply Chain and Labor Management

    Oncor has proactively managed its supply chain, diversifying its base, securing labor and materials, and expanding logistics. This proactive planning, supported by the Board, has created a competitive advantage, securing needs for the first three years of the base plan and line of sight for the outer two. The large and consistent future flow of work at Oncor is attractive to contract labor, helping to mitigate potential labor constraints, with contract labor having almost tripled over the years.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.