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    TMUS
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    T-Mobile US, Inc. TMUS

    Apr 24, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    T-Mobile Q1 FY25 — Record Postpaid Net Adds and Strong Financial Growth

    T-Mobile delivered a record-setting Q1 FY25, driven by strong customer growth across postpaid and broadband, and robust financial performance. The company emphasized its durable advantages in network, value, and execution, while also expanding its T-Fiber initiative and launching 5G Advanced nationwide. Management remains confident in its multi-year growth strategy and capital return framework, despite an evolving competitive and macro environment.

    Highlights

    6
    • Set a new record for total postpaid net additions in Q1, exceeding last year's growth.

    • Led the industry in postpaid phone net additions with 495,000.

    • Achieved postpaid ARPA growth of nearly 4%, marking the highest Q1 in 8 years.

    • Led the broadband industry for the 13th consecutive quarter with 424,000 5G broadband net additions.

    • Core adjusted EBITDA grew 8% year-over-year, double the average of wireless peers.

    • Delivered $4.4 billion in adjusted free cash flow, a new Q1 record.

    Concerns

    3
    • Wholesale and other service revenue impacted by expected declines from DISH and TracFone.

    • Potential for higher handset prices and dampened upgrade rates due to tariffs, with costs likely borne by customers.

    • Industry-wide churn was slightly elevated due to macro factors and competitive dynamics.

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Total postpaid net customer additions
    between 5.5 million and 6 million
    high materiality
    High
    Postpaid phone net additions
    approximately half of total postpaid net additions
    high materiality
    High
    Postpaid ARPA growth
    at least 3.5%
    high materiality
    High
    Postpaid phone ARPU growth
    1.5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Core adjusted EBITDA
    between $33.2 billion and $33.7 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Cash CapEx
    approximately $9.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted free cash flow
    in the range of $17.5 billion to $18 billion
    high materiality
    High
    T-Fiber (Lumos acquisition) financial impact
    slightly accretive to service revenues and neutral to adjusted EBITDA and adjusted free cash flow
    medium materiality
    High
    T-Satellite pricing
    $10 a month
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    20
    Postpaid gross additions
    Q1 recordup year-over-year
    Q1 FY25

    Record Q1 for total postpaid, phones, non-phones, and 5G broadband.

    Premium plan load on new accounts
    60%double that of current base
    Q1 FY25

    Percentage of lines on new accounts loading onto premium plans.

    5G broadband churn
    lowest ever
    Q1 FY25

    Achieved lowest 5G broadband churn ever.

    Business high-speed Internet net adds
    highest ever Q1
    Q1 FY25

    Highest ever Q1 net business high-speed Internet customers.

    Broadband ARPU growth
    highest ever Q1
    Q1 FY25

    Highest ever Q1 ARPU growth in broadband.

    Digital postpaid phone upgrades
    nearly doubledvs. last quarter
    Q1 FY25

    Percentage of postpaid phone upgrades completed digitally.

    Postpaid service revenues growth
    8%year-over-year
    Q1 FY25

    Industry-leading growth.

    Overall service revenues growth
    5%year-over-year
    Q1 FY25

    Rate is more than triple that of next closest competitor.

    Core adjusted EBITDA growth
    8%year-over-year
    Q1 FY25

    Double the average of wireless peer group.

    Adjusted free cash flow conversion from service revenues
    26%new Q1 record
    Q1 FY25

    About double that of closest competitor.

    5G Advanced download speed
    6.3 gigabits per secondrecord
    recent test

    Achieved in a recent real-world field test.

    T-Priority funnels
    50%year-over-year
    Q1 FY25

    Growth in funnels for first responders.

    Metro by T-Mobile prepaid customers
    nearly 25.5 million
    Q1 FY25

    Total prepaid customers served by Metro by T-Mobile brand.

    Metro by T-Mobile prepaid net adds
    350,000
    last 4 quarters

    Net additions over the last four quarters.

    Metro by T-Mobile prepaid net adds
    nearly 50,000
    Q1 FY25

    Net additions for the current quarter.

    Metro by T-Mobile prepaid churn reduction
    7year-over-year
    Q1 FY25

    Churn reduced on a year-over-year basis.

    Wholesale and other service revenue
    2.9 billion
    Full Year FY25

    Anticipated full year range, including underlying wholesale growth (excluding DISH and TracFone) and T-Ads (including Blis and Vistar).

    Industry overall cash flows
    50%higher than 2022 levels
    past 12 months

    Industry overall cash flows compared to three years prior.

    Wireless data usage
    3x more
    past 5 years

    Customers experiencing more data for the same spend.

    Wireless speeds
    4x better
    past 5 years

    Customers experiencing better speeds for the same spend.

    Industry KPIs

    10
    MetricValueDetails
    Postpaid arpa vs ARPUARPA: nearly 4%; ARPU: 1.5%%
    Free cash flow FCF guidance$4.4 billion; $17.5 billion to $18 billionUSD
    Service revenue growth ratePostpaid: 8%; Overall: 5%%
    Postpaid switching win sharegaining share
    Fiber jv cost synergy programsin excess of 20%%
    Postpaid net account additionsRecord Q1; 495,000net additions
    Share buyback capital returned
    Postpaid phone vs account churnlowest ever (broadband); reduced by 7 bps (prepaid)% / bps
    Spectrum position network benchmarks6.3 gigabits per secondGbps
    Fwa subscriber base and capacity model424,000net additions

    Product announcements

    5
    ProductTypeDetails
    Experience More and Experience Beyond planslaunch
    5G Advanced nationwide rolloutmilestone
    T-Satellite commercial servicelaunch
    T-Life digital platformmilestone
    IntentCX AI features (with OpenAI)milestone

    Deals & partnerships

    4
    LumosAcquisition of Lumos, forming a fiber joint venture (JV).

    Transaction completed on April 1. T-Mobile fully owns the consumer experience and retail business and shares 50% of the JV economics. Acquired customers will be treated as a base adjustment in Q2 results.

    MetronetAcquisition of Metronet to further expand T-Fiber.

    Expected to close soon, will further expand T-Fiber and bring more broadband choices. A comprehensive update will be provided after closing.

    UScellularPotential acquisition of UScellular assets.

    Mentioned as a future M&A opportunity; updates to initial figures will be given as and when the transaction closes.

    Disney StudiosProvided private 5G and network security slice for remote broadcasting.

    Interaction where T-Mobile provided private 5G and a network security slice for Disney Studios to broadcast from remote locations to their studios real time, specifically for Lilo & Stitch.

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Tariffs on Handsets

    Potential for higher handset prices and dampened upgrade rates.

    Mitigation: Management currently sees no material impact to business or guidance. Costs would likely be borne by customers, leading to a slowdown in upgrade rates.

    Elevated Industry ChurnQ1 FY25

    Churn was a little elevated across the industry.

    Mitigation: Attributed to macro questions and pull-forward dynamics; T-Mobile's record Q1 results indicate continued ability to take share despite this.

    Wholesale Revenue DeclinesOngoing

    Expected declines from DISH and TracFone.

    Mitigation: Underlying wholesale business (excluding DISH and TracFone) is growing, and Q1 is believed to be the low point for wholesale and other service revenue, with growth anticipated throughout the year to ~$2.9 billion.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    T-Fiber commercial launch and initial performance

    Later this quarter (Q2 FY25)
    CurrentPilot phase, Lumos acquisition closed April 1.
    TargetOfficial launch later this quarter, initial customer acquisition.

    Why it matters

    Key step in T-Mobile's broadband expansion strategy and leveraging its fixed wireless waitlist.

    With the completion of our transaction on April 1 for Lumos, we're now set to officially launch T-Fiber later this quarter, something that's been in pilot for the last 2-plus years.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    What are the biggest opportunities for T-Mobile, especially for new COO Srini Gopalan? Can you provide more details on the T-Fiber go-to-market strategy after the Lumos closing?

    Srini Gopalan highlighted the opportunity to combine T-Mobile's culture of solving customer problems with its best network and world-class digital capabilities. Mike Katz explained that T-Fiber's go-to-market will leverage T-Mobile's brand, national advertising, retail distribution, and its existing 1M+ fixed wireless waitlist, particularly in Lumos markets.

    The big opportunity we have is taking that culture and putting that together with what we have now as easily the best network in this industry along with the huge strides that we've made in our digital capabilities.

    asked by Ben Swinburne · answered by Srinivasan Gopalan

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Record Customer Growth & Market Share Gains

    T-Mobile achieved its best-ever Q1 for total postpaid net additions and postpaid gross additions, exceeding last year's growth. The company added 495,000 postpaid phone net additions and continued to lead the industry in T-Mobile for Business total postpaid and postpaid phone net additions, including a record quarter for enterprise customer additions. Market share gains were observed across all market types, including the top 100 markets, demonstrating broad-based momentum.

    02

    Value Proposition & ARPA Growth

    The company's industry-leading value proposition continues to encourage customers to self-select into premium plans, with 60% of lines on new accounts loading onto these higher-tier offerings. This trend contributed to a postpaid ARPA growth of nearly 4%, marking T-Mobile's highest Q1 ARPA growth in eight years. T-Mobile also unveiled new 'Experience More' and 'Experience Beyond' plans, designed to simplify choices and highlight the superior value proposition for customers.

    03

    Broadband Expansion (5G & Fiber)

    T-Mobile maintained its leadership in the broadband industry for the 13th consecutive quarter, adding 424,000 5G broadband net additions. The company achieved its lowest 5G broadband churn ever and its highest Q1 ARPU growth in broadband. Following the completion of the Lumos acquisition on April 1, T-Mobile is set to officially launch T-Fiber later this quarter, with plans to further expand through the Metronet transaction. This strategy leverages T-Mobile's existing fixed wireless waitlist of over 1 million customers and its go-to-market strengths.

    04

    Network Leadership & Innovation

    T-Mobile announced it is the first and only carrier in the country to roll out 5G Advanced nationwide, enabled by its 5G stand-alone core. This advancement offers faster, more dynamic, and more efficient service, with a record 6.3 gigabits per second download speed achieved in a recent field test. The enhanced capabilities, including improved slicing and lower latency, are expected to better serve business and government customers. The company's network leadership continues to be affirmed by third-party awards from OpenSignal and RootMetrics.

    05

    T-Satellite Launch & Digital/AI Transformation

    The beta program for T-Satellite has garnered hundreds of thousands of active users, with commercial service slated to begin in July at a price of $10 per month, or free for customers on Experience Beyond and Go5G Next plans. T-Mobile is also advancing its digital transformation efforts, with its T-Life platform nearly doubling the percentage of digital postpaid phone upgrades. New IntentCX AI features, pioneered with OpenAI, are significantly reducing the need for customers to contact care teams, indicating strong progress towards multi-year AI goals.

    06

    Financial Performance & Capital Allocation

    T-Mobile reported strong financial growth in Q1, with postpaid service revenues increasing 8% year-over-year and overall service revenues growing 5%. Core adjusted EBITDA also saw an 8% year-over-year increase. The company generated $4.4 billion in adjusted free cash flow, a new Q1 record, translating to an industry-leading 26% conversion from service revenues. T-Mobile's M&A strategy, including the Lumos and upcoming Metronet transactions, is focused on value-accretive growth and long-term shareholder returns, with anticipated IRRs exceeding 20% for these fiber JVs.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.