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    TRGP
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    Targa Resources Corp. TRGP

    Feb 20, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Targa Resources Corp. Q4 FY24 — Record Volumes and Strong Growth Outlook

    Targa Resources delivered a record-setting Q4 FY24, driven by exceptional Permian volume growth that outpaced initial expectations and fueled strong downstream performance. The company is accelerating significant capital investments into 2025 and beyond to support continued robust organic growth, particularly in the Permian Basin, while maintaining a strong balance sheet and committing to increasing shareholder returns.

    Highlights

    5
    • Record adjusted EBITDA of $4.1 billion in 2024, representing a 17% year-over-year increase.

    • Permian G&P volumes grew 14% year-over-year in 2024, with an incremental 709 million cubic feet per day.

    • Record NGL transportation volumes averaged 872,000 barrels per day and fractionation volumes averaged 1.1 million barrels per day during Q4.

    • Announced 3 new projects (Delaware Express, Train 12, LPG export expansion) and 4 new Permian G&P plants for 2026.

    • Increased 2024 common dividend by 50% year-over-year and repurchased $755 million in common shares.

    Concerns

    3
    • Q1 2025 was impacted by freezing weather, affecting Permian and NGL volumes.

    • Higher capital spend is expected over the next few years due to accelerated growth and downstream projects.

    • Steel price increases and potential tariffs are a modest headwind on capital costs for projects.

    Guidance & targets

    12
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $4.65 billion to $4.85 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA growth
    over $600 million
    high materiality
    High
    Growth capital spending
    $2.6 billion to $2.8 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Net maintenance capital spending
    $250 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Common dividend per share increase
    33% year-over-year increase
    high materiality
    High
    Net consolidated leverage ratio
    comfortably within 3 to 4x
    high materiality
    High
    Commodity price assumption (Waha natural gas)
    $1.55 per MMBtu
    medium materiality
    High
    Commodity price assumption (weighted average NGL barrel)
    $0.65 per gallon
    medium materiality
    High
    Commodity price assumption (WTI crude)
    $70 a barrel
    medium materiality
    High
    Project build multiple
    around 5.5x or better
    medium materiality
    High
    Tax status
    Subject to federal minimum tax
    medium materiality
    High
    Tax status
    Full cash taxpayer
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Permian G&P
    Volume outperformance in 2024 driven by dedicated acreage, lower declines, increased producer activity, higher gas-to-oil ratios, and commercial success. Expects more second-half weighted growth in 2025 and stronger growth in 2026.
    Incremental volume: 709 MMcf/d (2024)
    14%
    Logistics & Transportation
    Benefited from Daytona NGL Pipeline (late August) and Train 10 fractionator (late October) coming into service. Saw 29% volume growth from Q4 2023 to Q4 2024.
    NGL Pipeline transportation volumes: 872,000 bbl/d (Q4 FY24)Fractionation volumes: 1.1 million bbl/d (Q4 FY24)LPG export loadings: 14 million bbl/month (Q4 FY24)

    Operational metrics

    19
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $4.1 billion
    FY24

    Record adjusted EBITDA for the full year 2024.

    Adjusted EBITDA growth
    17%YoY
    FY24

    Year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA for 2024.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $1.122 billion5% increase over Q3
    Q4 FY24

    Sequential increase attributable to higher Permian volumes and integrated NGL business.

    ROIC
    21%
    Past 5 years

    Strong return on invested capital, despite major projects coming online and only partially contributing in 2024.

    Common share repurchases
    $755 millionSubstantial increase over $347 million in FY23
    FY24

    Record repurchases executed during the year.

    Net consolidated leverage ratio
    3.4x
    End FY24

    Below the midpoint of the long-term target range of 3 to 4x.

    Available liquidity
    $2.8 billion
    End Q4 FY24

    Enhanced liquidity position and flexibility.

    Optimization opportunities
    $100 million
    FY24

    Benefit from stronger-than-expected natural gas and NGL marketing opportunities, not included in original guidance.

    EBITDA sensitivity to commodity prices (30% increase)
    $130 million
    FY25

    Estimated increase in full year adjusted EBITDA for a 30% move higher in commodity prices.

    EBITDA sensitivity to commodity prices (30% decrease)
    $80 million
    FY25

    Estimated reduction in full year adjusted EBITDA for a 30% decrease in commodity prices.

    Badlands preferred equity annual cash savings
    $80 million
    Annual

    Expected cash savings from refinancing the low double-digit cost preferred equity.

    Badlands preferred equity incremental EBITDA
    $180 million
    FY25

    Resulting from owning 100% of Badlands for all of 2025 after the repurchase.

    Permian G&P volume growth
    277 millionQoQ increase from Q1 FY24
    Q2 FY24

    Sequential volume increase.

    Permian G&P volume growth
    311 millionQoQ increase from Q2 FY24
    Q3 FY24

    Sequential volume increase.

    Permian G&P volume growth
    83 millionQoQ increase from Q3 FY24
    Q4 FY24

    Sequential volume increase, impacted by a low margin contract rollover.

    US LPG market share
    46%Up from 29%
    Current

    Market share of U.S. in the global LPG market.

    US LPG market growth
    2.5 to 3x
    Less than 10 years

    Growth in the overall LPG market from the U.S.

    Cedar Bayou fractionators interest acquired
    12%
    Q4 FY24

    Acquisition of BP's remaining interest, resulting in 100% ownership.

    Cedar Bayou fractionators acquisition cost
    $111 million
    Q4 FY24

    Net cash consideration for the 12% interest.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Pipeline throughput storage872,000bbl/d
    Realized price differential$1.55/MMBtu (Waha natural gas), $0.65/gallon (weighted average NGL barrel), $70/barrel (WTI crude)USD
    Sanctioned expansion backlog5 Permian processing plants, Train 11, Train 12, Delaware Express, Galena Park LPG export expansion
    Basin level production volume14%%
    FCF shareholder distributions42%%
    Take or pay contract structure>90%%
    Weather event volume earnings impactImpacted

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    BPAcquisition of remaining 12% interest in Cedar Bayou fractionators (CBF)$111 million

    Targa now owns 100% of CBF, simplifying operational structure at an attractive return.

    BlackstoneRepurchase of all outstanding preferred equity in Targa Badlands LLC$1.8 billion

    Effective date of January 1. Refinancing low double-digit cost preferred equity with lower cost debt. Targa will own 100% of Badlands again.

    WhiteWater and BlackcombPartnership for Permian gas egress pipeline (Blackcomb)

    Targa invested 17.5% in the Blackcomb pipeline, expected online in 2026.

    Capital programs

    10
    Delaware Express NGL Pipelineannounced

    Benefit: Additional NGL capacity in the Delaware

    A 100-mile, 30-inch diameter intra-Delaware Basin pipeline expansion of Grand Prix. Needed to accommodate incremental NGL volumes from 5 Permian processing plants currently under construction.

    Train 12 NGL Fractionatorannounced

    Benefit: 150,000 bbl/d

    Next NGL fractionator in Mont Belvieu, expected to be much needed at startup.

    Galena Park LPG Export Expansionannouncedless than $400 million

    Benefit: Increase effective export capacity to 19 million bbl/month

    Includes a new pipeline between Mont Belvieu and Galena Park and another refrigeration unit. Significantly increases loading rates and enhances facility flexibility. Expected to be much needed due to fractionation expansions and continued strength in global demand for U.S.-sourced LPGs.

    Bull Moose II Plantunder construction

    Located in the Delaware Basin, expected to be in great position to handle customer volume growth.

    Falcon II Plantunder construction

    Located in the Delaware Basin, expected to be in great position to handle customer volume growth.

    Pembrook II Plantunder construction

    Located in the Midland Basin, one of 3 additional plants under construction in the Midland Basin.

    East Pembrook Plantunder construction

    Located in the Midland Basin, one of 3 additional plants under construction in the Midland Basin.

    East Driver Plantunder construction

    Located in the Midland Basin, one of 3 additional plants under construction in the Midland Basin.

    Train 11 NGL Fractionatorunderway

    Located in Mont Belvieu, remains on track and expected to be much needed at startup.

    Blackcomb Permian Gas Egress Pipelineunderway
    Funding: Targa 17.5% investment

    Partnership with WhiteWater and Blackcomb. Expected to be much needed when it comes online.

    Risks & headwinds

    2
    Freezing weather impacting Permian and NGL volumesQ1 2025

    Impacted Q1 2025 volumes

    Mitigation: Not stated

    Capital cost inflation from steel prices and potential tariffsOngoing

    Modest headwind

    Mitigation: Procurement group managing, working with U.S. steel suppliers.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Permian G&P volume growth

    Next quarter / H1 2025
    Current14% YoY in 2024
    TargetMore second-half weighted growth in 2025

    Why it matters

    Permian volume growth is a primary driver of EBITDA and downstream asset utilization, impacting overall financial performance.

    While we expect to continue to benefit from similar trends in 2025, we currently estimate that our Permian G&P volume growth will be more second half weighted⚖️.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    How should we think about the trajectory of EBITDA growth across 2025 (back-half weighted) and into 2026, given accelerated projects? Also, is 2024's optimization upside likely to recur in 2025?

    Management confirmed a strong multiyear growth outlook, with 2026 potentially being even stronger than 2025 due to 4 plants coming online. They noted 2025 is back-half weighted due to commercial deals. Optimization opportunities are not baked into guidance but are expected to present themselves as potential upside.

    The growth outlook, I'd say, for us, is really strong relative to where we were sitting last year at this time. I'd say the multiyear growth outlook has improved really for every year. As we look at this year specifically, we're pointing to more back half growth.

    asked by Jeremy Tonet · answered by Matt Meloy

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Permian Growth Drivers and Outlook

    Targa's Permian G&P volume outperformance in 2024, with 14% YoY growth and an incremental 709 MMcf/d, was driven by dedicated acreage on prime rock in the Midland and Delaware Basins, lower declines on existing volumes, increased producer activity, higher gas-to-oil ratios, and commercial success. The company expects similar trends in 2025, with growth more second-half weighted⚖️, and anticipates even stronger volume growth in 2026 due to new commercial deals and 4 new Permian G&P plants coming online.

    02

    New Infrastructure Projects Announced

    Targa announced three new critical projects: the Delaware Express, a 100-mile 30-inch diameter intra-Delaware Basin NGL pipeline expansion of Grand Prix; Train 12, its next 150,000 bbl/d NGL fractionator in Mont Belvieu; and a new LPG export expansion at Galena Park, increasing effective capacity to 19 million bbl/month. These projects are essential to accommodate incremental NGL volumes from the 5 Permian processing plants currently under construction and are expected to deliver attractive returns on invested capital.

    03

    Strategic Repurchase of Badlands LLC Preferred Equity

    Targa entered a definitive agreement to repurchase all outstanding preferred equity in Targa Badlands LLC for approximately $1.8 billion, effective January 1, 2025. This strategic move is expected to generate over $80 million in annual cash savings by refinancing low double-digit cost preferred equity with lower cost debt, and will contribute approximately $180 million of incremental EBITDA in 2025. The company will now fully own the fee-based, free cash flow generating Badlands asset.

    04

    Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    The company achieved a 21% ROIC over the past 5 years and returned 42% of its adjusted cash flow from operations to shareholders in 2024, exceeding initial expectations. Targa maintains an 'all-of-the-above' capital allocation strategy, balancing investments in high-return organic growth opportunities with increasing capital returns to shareholders, including opportunistic common share repurchases and a planned 33% increase to the 2025 common dividend.

    05

    NGL Export Market Dynamics and Expansion

    The U.S. LPG market share has grown significantly from 29% to 46% in less than 10 years, with the overall market expanding 2.5 to 3 times. Targa expects this trend to continue, driven by robust global demand for U.S.-sourced LPGs. The Galena Park LPG export expansion, a brownfield project costing less than $400 million, includes a new pipeline and refrigeration unit, enhancing loading rates and facility flexibility to meet this growing demand.

    06

    Permian Gas Egress and M&A Posture

    Targa is a 17.5% partner in the Blackcomb Permian gas egress pipeline, expected online in 2026, and is actively exploring further opportunities for Permian gas takeaway solutions, including potential investments in other pipelines and repurposing existing NGL lines for residue gas service. The company maintains a high bar for M&A, prioritizing its strong organic growth pipeline, and will only pursue bolt-on transactions that meet its stringent criteria.

    07

    Capital Program Inflation Management

    While steel price increases and potential tariffs are noted as headwinds, Targa views their impact on overall capital costs as modest and manageable. Steel costs represent a small portion of total project budgets, and the company's procurement group is actively managing these costs, including working with U.S. steel suppliers to mitigate tariff exposure, ensuring projects continue to deliver attractive returns.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.