Uber (UBER) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

How will AV ramps from Tesla or Waymo in major cities impact Uber's market share and profitability, especially given 30% of bookings from major cities?

Dara stated AVs are a net positive, driving overall market growth, with Uber's platform showing higher AV utilization. He highlighted partnerships and the expectation of being in 15 cities by year-end. Balaji added that 70% of the U.S. market and 75% of U.S. profits come from outside top cities, which AVs are unlikely to address soon. Dara also noted 60% of mobility gross bookings are international.

“AVs in the marketplace whether they're competitive in SF or whether they're on our platforms like Austin and Atlanta are turning out to be net positives in growing the overall economic pie or the economic pie available to boom in, so to speak.”

asked by Justin Post · answered by Dara Khosrowshahi

What are the strategic priorities for maintaining customer growth momentum, and how will Uber One evolve the customer lifetime relationship?

Dara outlined strategies including new products (Moto, Reserve), new use cases (Reserve for reliability), targeting demographics (women preferred, teens, older), and international expansion, especially in less dense markets. Balaji added that MAPC growth accelerated from 14% to 18% YoY in 2025, with new cohorts showing stronger retention, and 40% of Q4 consumers using multiple products. Uber One membership is growing 55% YoY and supercharges cohort retention.

“We started the year with MAPC growth at about 14% year-on-year. We ended the year with MAPC growth at 18% year-on-year, which is a very, very strong step up.”

asked by Eric Sheridan · answered by Balaji Krishnamurthy

Why won't AVs lead to a winner-take-most scenario given safety importance? And is the 50% free cash flow commitment to shareholders still valid for 2026?

Dara argued that hardware (AVs) differs from software platforms, expecting many suppliers as L3/L4 software becomes standard, with NVIDIA setting an industry standard. Balaji stated capital allocation prioritizes reinvestment in core business, AV strategy, and M&A, but significant free cash flow allows aggressive share buybacks, confirming continued commitment to shareholder returns.

“I think hardware is fundamentally different in that if you look at the OEM industry, there are many, many car manufacturers, manufacturing is local, you have local champions, et cetera. And if you look at the trend as it relates to AV, it looks more and more like our vision of the future, which is 10 years from now, every single car -- a new car sold, is going to have L4 or L3, full L3 and L4 software attached with it.”

asked by Brian Nowak · answered by Dara Khosrowshahi

What are the biggest reasons for confidence in U.S. trip and gross bookings acceleration? Any changes in thinking about capital intensity for the AV business?

Balaji attributed U.S. acceleration to price consistency, insurance reform, the barbell strategy, and expansion into sparser markets. Dara explained that Uber invests in AV software players (e.g., Waabi, with exclusive vehicle commitments) to guarantee supply. He also highlighted discussions with financial institutions for fleet financing, comparing it to Marriott's asset-light model for hotels, expecting a similar financialization for AV fleets.

“We are putting our capital up in order to guarantee supply going forward. And as I said, much of that supply is going to be on profitable economics, which is terrific.”

asked by Mark Mahaney · answered by Dara Khosrowshahi

How do data and simulation accelerate AV path to market? What are the key unlocks/hurdles for deploying AVs in 15 cities by year-end?

Dara emphasized the role of advanced simulation capabilities and Uber's partnership with NVIDIA to collect over 3 million hours of real-world AV data, democratizing it for the ecosystem. Hurdles for the 15-city deployment include striking deals, securing capital for vehicles, setting up depots, charging infrastructure, regulatory work, and ensuring safety, typically starting with a driver in the vehicle.

“We're partnering with NVIDIA to kind of build a real-world data collection factory that's looking to collect over 3 million hours of real-world specific data to passenger AV, pickups, drop offs, all of the things that Uber drivers have to -- all the complexity that Uber drivers have to deal with.”

asked by Douglas Anmuth · answered by Dara Khosrowshahi

Can you discuss the different stages and duration of AV deployment, and how Uber plans to scale to tens of thousands of AVs?

Balaji explained the initial stage focuses on providing baseload supply from AVs to meet demand during off-peak hours, leveraging Uber's consistent demand. Future stages involve lowering vehicle platform costs to expand TAM and eventually having AVs as a majority of supply in certain markets, contingent on OEM production ramps. Dara highlighted Uber's structural advantage in utilizing AVs in troughs for delivery and freight, leading to higher overall utilization than competitors.

“What we are going to be solving for initially is to get baseload supply from AVs to meet the demand at the trough of the weeks demand curve.”

asked by Michael Morton · answered by Balaji Krishnamurthy

Update on long-term potential of delivery advertising and key growth opportunities? What are the drivers of accelerating delivery growth and its sustainability?

Balaji noted that delivery ad penetration exceeding 2% suggests a much larger opportunity, with enterprise advertising catching up to SMBs and new opportunities in grocery, retail, and mobility. Dara outlined five drivers for delivery growth: expanding selection, growth in less dense areas, newer products (grocery/retail), Uber One membership, and international expansion, all contributing to healthy top-line growth and margin improvement.

“Our selection still in many countries is 30%, 40% of the addressable market. Our selection in the U.S., especially in less dense markets, in small and medium businesses is not where we want to be.”

asked by John Colantuoni · answered by Dara Khosrowshahi