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    USB
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    US BANCORP DE USB

    Jan 16, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    U.S. Bancorp Q4 FY24 — Strong Revenue Growth and Operating Leverage

    U.S. Bancorp delivered a strong fourth quarter, marked by top-line revenue growth and disciplined expense management, resulting in significant positive operating leverage. The company's diversified fee businesses and effective balance sheet management contributed to these results, despite some headwinds in payments and a slight decline in asset yields. Management expressed confidence in continuing this momentum into 2025, projecting further revenue growth and operating leverage, while maintaining a neutral stance on interest rate risk and focusing on organic growth opportunities.

    Highlights

    5
    • Adjusted diluted EPS of $1.07, exceeding reported EPS of $1.01.

    • Achieved 190 basis points of positive operating leverage on an adjusted basis year-over-year in Q4.

    • Net revenue totaled $7 billion for the quarter, with full-year net revenue reaching $27.5 billion.

    • CET1 capital ratio increased 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 10.6%.

    • Tangible book value per share grew 10.4% year-over-year to $24.63 at December 31.

    Concerns

    4
    • Notable expense items totaled $109 million in Q4, including $60 million for operational efficiency initiatives and $49 million for real estate restructuring.

    • Investment portfolio and loan book saw a slight decline in average yield due to variable rates offsetting fixed asset repricing.

    • Prepaid card revenue was negatively impacted by 4 percentage points in Q4 due to exiting certain businesses, with continued impact expected in Q1 FY25.

    • Merchant acquiring yield contracted 70 basis points year-over-year in Q4, driven by growth in high-volume, lower-margin clients.

    Guidance & targets

    9
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Net Interest Income (NII)
    relatively stable to Q4 2024, excluding impact of fewer days
    high materiality
    High
    Total Noninterest Expense (adjusted)
    relatively stable to Q4 level
    medium materiality
    High
    Positive Operating Leverage
    200 basis points or more
    high materiality
    High
    Total Revenue Growth (adjusted)
    3% to 5%
    high materiality
    High
    Positive Operating Leverage
    greater than 200 basis points
    high materiality
    High
    Fee Growth
    mid-single digits
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Loan and Deposit Growth
    modest
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Rate Cut Assumptions
    2 rate cuts
    high materiality
    High
    10-year Treasury Rate Assumption
    4.65%
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    21
    Notable Expense Items
    $109 million
    Q4 FY24

    These are one-time charges impacting reported EPS.

    Noninterest Income Growth (excluding security losses)
    3.9%YoY
    FY24

    Consistent with 2024 guidance, benefiting from diversified business mix.

    Noninterest Expense (adjusted)
    $16.79 billionbelow $16.8 billion guidance
    FY24

    Reflects prudent expense management and operational efficiencies.

    Investment Portfolio Repricing
    $3 billion
    per quarter

    Amount of investment portfolio that runs off and can be replaced at a higher spread.

    Other Fixed Rate Assets Repricing
    $5 billion to $7 billion
    per quarter

    Amount of other fixed-rate assets that reprice quarterly at favorable spreads, assuming today's rates.

    Other Revenue
    $125 million to $150 million
    average per quarter

    Expected range for this revenue category.

    Prepaid Revenue Impact
    4 percentage pointshurt total revenue
    Q4 FY24

    Due to exiting some prepaid revenue businesses.

    Merchant Acquiring Yield Contraction
    70 basis pointsYoY
    Q4 FY24

    Driven by growth in high-volume, lower-margin clients.

    Cumulative Deposit Beta
    38%
    through Q4 FY24

    Spot through-the-cycle beta.

    Expected Deposit Beta
    mid- to high 40s
    Q1 FY25

    Anticipated beta for the first quarter.

    Through-the-Cycle Deposit Beta
    50%+
    through-the-cycle

    Expected migration with additional rate cuts.

    Average Earning Assets Growth
    1.2%linked quarter
    Q4 FY24

    Driven by higher on-balance sheet liquidity.

    Average Deposits Growth
    0.7%linked quarter
    Q4 FY24

    Reflects prioritization of relationship-based deposits and pricing discipline.

    Average Loans Growth
    0.4%linked quarter
    Q4 FY24

    Driven by commercial lending, slower paydowns, residential mortgages, and seasonal credit card spend.

    Retail Card Sales Growth
    nearly 6%
    Q4 FY24

    Strong sales on the credit card side.

    Commercial Products New Product Growth
    20%
    FY24

    Growth from new products like ABS desks, syndication desks, and commodities.

    Noninterest-Bearing Deposits to Total Deposits
    stabilized
    Q4 FY24

    Stabilized in line with earlier expectations after accounting for institutional deposit seasonality.

    Investment Portfolio Ending Balance
    $171 billionincreased slightly from prior quarter
    December 31

    From opportunistic repurchases of securities.

    Payments Business Revenue Contribution
    25%
    current

    Of total company revenue.

    Core Credit Card Business Contribution to Payments Revenue
    2/3
    current

    Of total payments revenue.

    Tech-Led Merchant Business Contribution
    1/3
    current

    Of total merchant business.

    Industry KPIs

    13
    MetricValueDetails
    Loans$376 billionUSD
    Deposits$512 billionUSD
    Rotce ROE18.3%%
    Cet1 ratio10.6%%
    Capital returns$100 millionUSD
    Fee income lines>40%%
    Allowance reserves$7.9 billionUSD
    Net interest income$4.18 billionUSD
    Net interest margin
    Net charge offs npls0.60%%
    Total operating expenses$4.2 billionUSD
    Provision for credit losses
    Efficiency ratio operating leverage59.9%%

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    Macroeconomic Uncertainty and Rate VolatilityOngoing

    Not quantified

    Mitigation: Effective balance sheet management, financial discipline, and expanding interconnectedness across the franchise.

    Political and Regulatory HeadwindsOngoing

    Not quantified

    Mitigation: Not explicitly stated, but implies careful navigation of the environment.

    Prepaid Card Revenue HeadwindsQ4 FY24, Q1 FY25

    4 percentage points negative impact on Q4 FY24 card revenue

    Mitigation: Headwinds are expected to abate, fully lapped in Q2 FY25.

    ATM Exit and Freight Headwinds in PaymentsFY24

    Not quantified, but noted as headwinds

    Mitigation: These headwinds have abated or will abate, allowing core momentum to drive growth.

    Mortgage Volume WeaknessFY25

    Hard to see volumes stronger than prior year

    Mitigation: Gain on sale is expected to be stable, focus on other fee income drivers.

    Merchant Acquiring Yield CompressionQ4 FY24, potentially ongoing

    70 basis points contraction YoY in Q4 FY24

    Mitigation: Focus on tech-led initiatives and higher-margin clients, while acknowledging persistence of high-volume, lower-margin clients.

    Inverted Yield CurvePast, potential future

    Not quantified, but noted as pressure on NII

    Mitigation: Company aims to be neutral to short-end rate movements; a steeper curve is more favorable.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Q1 FY25 Net Interest Income

    Q1 FY25
    Current$4.18 billion (Q4 FY24 FTE)
    TargetStable (excluding day count) / ~$4.14 billion (reported)

    Why it matters

    NII is a primary driver of bank profitability, and its stability (or slight decline due to day count) will indicate the effectiveness of balance sheet management and rate assumptions.

    Net interest income is expected to be relatively stable to the fourth quarter of 2024, excluding the impact of fewer days. As a reminder, the first quarter has 2 fewer days than the fourth quarter.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    Could you elaborate on the drivers for the 3% to 5% FY25 revenue growth, specifically the split between NII and fees? Also, clarify if the Q1 NII guidance of 'stable excluding day count' means a marginal reported decrease.

    John Stern confirmed that Q1 NII would be down marginally (approx. $40M) on a reported basis due to fewer days. He detailed fee growth expectations of mid-single digits, driven by trust, payments, treasury management, and capital markets, with mortgage volumes stable. For NII, key drivers are better asset mix, deposit normalization, and fixed asset repricing, with significant quarterly repricing of investment portfolio and other fixed-rate assets at favorable spreads.

    We expect fees to grow. We have strong momentum, and we think that is -- that mid-single digit is a reasonable place for us to begin. As we think about net interest income, again, well positioned. The balance sheet is in a great spot.

    asked by Robert Siefers · answered by John Stern

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q4 Performance and FY24 Highlights

    U.S. Bancorp reported Q4 FY24 adjusted diluted EPS of $1.07, with net revenue reaching $7 billion for the quarter and $27.5 billion for the full year. The quarter was characterized by positive operating leverage of 190 basis points year-over-year on an adjusted basis, driven by effective balance sheet management, earning asset repricing, and a diversified fee business. Full-year noninterest income, excluding security losses, increased 3.9%, consistent with prior guidance, while adjusted noninterest expense of $16.79 billion was below the $16.8 billion guidance.

    02

    Balance Sheet and Capital Management

    The company achieved slight balance sheet growth in Q4, with average earning assets increasing 1.2% and average deposits up 0.7% linked-quarter to $512 billion. Average loans increased modestly by 0.4% to $376 billion. The CET1 capital ratio improved by 10 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 10.6%, and tangible book value per share rose 10.4% year-over-year to $24.63. The company initiated $100 million in share repurchases during the quarter, balancing capital accretion with distributions.

    03

    Net Interest Income and Margin Trajectory

    Net interest income (FTE) was stable at $4.18 billion in Q4, with full-year NII slightly exceeding the $16.4 billion guidance. Management anticipates NII to be relatively stable in Q1 FY25 (excluding day count impact) and expects NIM to follow NII directionally, increasing over time. Key drivers for NII growth in FY25 include improved asset mix, deposit normalization (slowing noninterest-bearing rotation), and fixed asset repricing, with $3 billion of the investment portfolio and $5 billion to $7 billion of other fixed-rate assets repricing quarterly at favorable spreads.

    04

    Fee Income Performance and Outlook

    Fee income represented over 40% of total net revenue in Q4, with double-digit year-over-year growth in commercial products, trust and investment management, and investment product revenues. Despite headwinds in prepaid cards and freight, the company expects mid-single-digit fee growth in FY25, driven by strong momentum in trust, payments, treasury management, and capital markets. Mortgage volumes are expected to remain stable due to higher rates, while 'other revenue' is projected to be $125 million to $150 million per quarter.

    05

    Expense Discipline and Operating Leverage

    U.S. Bancorp has maintained a relatively flat expense base for five consecutive quarters, enabling the delivery of positive operating leverage. For FY25, the company guides for greater than 200 basis points of positive operating leverage. Expense management levers include real estate optimization, procurement and third-party spend actions, organizational simplicity, automation of processes, and the stabilization of digital investment costs, which are now bending the cost curve.

    06

    Payments Business Strategy and Performance

    The payments franchise is considered a strategic asset, with a recent reorganization to better align with consumer and institutional segments. While the tech-led merchant processing segment shows strong growth, the overall merchant acquiring yield contracted 70 basis points year-over-year in Q4 due to an increase in high-volume, lower-margin clients. The company sees strong momentum in core payments, with retail card expecting mid-single-digit growth and corporate payment solutions (CPS) anticipating high single-digit growth, benefiting from Union Bank penetration.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.