How will Visa manage fraud risk in agentic commerce within its 4-party network, especially given American Express's approach to taking on risk?

Management stated that Visa cardholders will always be protected from fraud, consistent with its long-standing promise. They anticipate that agentic commerce will involve more transactions initiated from authenticated tokens, which will help reduce fraud. Additionally, issuers and merchants will have more data (user intent, dispute processes) to manage risk. Visa will evolve its rules with full ecosystem buy-in as the use cases mature. “If a Visa cardholder experiences fraud, they're going to be protected. That's been part of the promise for Visa cardholders for a very, very long time. I would add to that, in agentic commerce, we're going to have more transactions that are initiated from authenticated tokens, which is good. Will further reduce fraud, will further protect the ecosystem.”

Are the unit economics of stablecoin and agentic transactions accretive, dilutive, or neutral to Visa's business model?

Management clarified that Visa positions itself as a 'hyperscaling bridge layer' between stablecoin infrastructure and real-world solutions. By investing in this bridge, Visa delivers real-world utility for buyers and sellers, and the economics of stablecoin-linked card products are very similar to those of traditional Visa products, implying they are accretive or neutral, not dilutive. “So if you're an average Visa employee in Argentina and you're holding $1,000 in stablecoins in your wallet... The economics of those products look just like our normal products. So by investing in building this hyperscaling bridge layer, we're providing real-world utility for buyers and sellers, and we're doing that in the context of similar economics to what we deliver today.”

What capabilities does Visa offer for agent-to-agent micro-transactions, particularly regarding trust, and how will this contribute to volume growth?

Visa is well-positioned to win in agentic commerce due to its network, security, and trust. Management emphasized that trust is the limiting factor for agentic commerce, and users will rely on payment methods they trust. Visa cards offer ease of use, broad acceptance, privacy, security protections, and rewards, making them a preferred choice for agents, whether for macro, average, or micro transactions, ultimately driving more volume. “I think the limiting factor for agentic commerce is trust. I think when we all think about ourselves as buyers and we all think about ourselves having agents go out and transact on our behalf, we are going to fall back on payment methods that we, as users, trust.”

Visa (V) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Q: What were the biggest factors driving the significant revenue upside in Q2, and how do these factors influence the second half outlook?

Management attributed Q2's strong performance to higher-than-expected volatility, robust growth in value-added services (VAS) driven by demand for network products and marketing services, and lower-than-expected client incentives due to deal timing and performance adjustments. These trends, particularly volatility and VAS strength, are expected to continue into Q3, contributing to a strong outlook. “The things that I would call out, again, are volatility. It was very low, if you recall, at the start of January when we set the guide and then it rose higher throughout the course of the quarter. It was still a drag year-over-year, but it was better than we anticipated. Secondly is our VAS business. We had strong growth again across all our portfolios.”

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q2 FY26)· Financials· Apr 28, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Visa Inc. Q2 FY26 — Strong Revenue and EPS Growth Driven by VAS and CMS

Visa delivered robust Q2 FY26 results, driven by strong performance in value-added services and commercial solutions, alongside consistent consumer payments growth. The company is strategically focused on expanding its addressable market through AI, agentic commerce, and stablecoin initiatives, while navigating regional geopolitical headwinds. Management raised its full-year revenue and EPS guidance, reflecting confidence in its diversified business model and execution.

Highlights

Net revenue increased 17% year-over-year to $11.2 billion, marking the strongest growth since 2022.
Diluted EPS grew 20% year-over-year, outperforming expectations.
Value-added services revenue surged 27% year-over-year in constant dollars to $3.3 billion.
Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew 24% in constant dollars.
The company executed its highest quarterly stock buyback in history, repurchasing $7.9 billion in stock.

Concerns

Payments volume growth in CEMEA stepped down by approximately 2.5 points from Q1 due to the Middle East conflict.
Cross-border travel-related volume in April was impacted by the Middle East conflict and Ramadan timing.
Non-operating expense of $45 million was above expectations, primarily due to lower cash balances and higher debt levels and interest rates.

Guidance & targets

Category	Target	Timeline	Confidence
Full-year net revenue growth	low double-digit to low teens high materiality	Full-year FY26	High
Full-year operating expense growth	low double-digit to low teens medium materiality	Full-year FY26	High
Full-year non-operating expense	approximately $150 million medium materiality	Full-year FY26	High
Full-year tax rate	between 18% and 18.5% medium materiality	Full-year FY26	High
Full-year adjusted EPS growth	low teens high materiality	Full-year FY26	High
Q3 net revenue growth	low double digits medium materiality	Q3 · FY26	High
Q3 operating expense growth	low teens medium materiality	Q3 · FY26	High
Q3 non-operating expense	about $55 million medium materiality	Q3 · FY26	High
Q3 tax rate	around 18.5% medium materiality	Q3 · FY26	High
Q3 EPS growth	mid- to high single digits high materiality	Q3 · FY26	High
Acquisition impact on full-year net revenue growth	approximately 1 point low materiality	Full-year FY26	High
Acquisition impact on full-year operating expense growth	approximately 1.5 points low materiality	Full-year FY26	High
Acquisition impact on full-year EPS growth	approximately 0.5 point low materiality	Full-year FY26	High
Acquisition impact on Q3 net revenue growth	approximately 1.5 points low materiality	Q3 · FY26	High
Acquisition impact on Q3 operating expense growth	approximately 2 points low materiality	Q3 · FY26	High
Acquisition impact on Q3 EPS growth	approximately 0.5 point low materiality	Q3 · FY26	High

Segment performance

Segment	Revenue	YoY	QoQ	Margin
U.S. Payments Volume Up almost 1.5 points from Q1, reflecting resilience in consumer spending, with e-commerce outpacing face-to-face spend.	—	8%	—	—
U.S. Debit Payments Volume Up almost 1 point from Q1, with broad-based spend improvement.	—	7%	—	—
U.S. Credit Payments Volume Up more than 2 points from Q1, with strong travel spend in both consumer and commercial.	—	10%	—	—
International Payments Volume Year-over-year in constant dollars, generally consistent with growth over the past several quarters.	—	10%	—	—
CEMEA Payments Volume From Q1 in constant dollars, primarily due to the conflict in the Middle East. CEMEA generally represents about 6% of total payments volume.	—	step down of about 2.5 points	—	—
Commercial Payments Volume In constant dollars, up more than 1 point from Q1 and faster than Visa's overall payments volume growth, driven by new wins and continued cross-border strength.	—	11%	—	—

V operating KPIs by quarter

V operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPI	Dec 2024 Q1 FY25	Mar 2025 Q2 FY25	Jun 2025 Q3 FY25	Sep 2025 Q4 FY25	Dec 2025 Q1 FY26	This call Mar 2026 Q2 FY26	Jun 2026 Q3 FY26	Change vs prior quarter
Visa Direct transactions	<3B Visa Direct has now crossed the $10 billion transaction mark over the last 12 months with nearly 3 billion transactions this quarter. Source: earnings call transcript	3B Commercial and money movement solutions revenue grew 13% year-over-year in constant dollars driven by commercial payment volume growth of 6% year-over-year in constant dollars, consistent with last quarter; and Visa Direct transaction growth of 28% year-over-year to 3 billion transactions, below Q1 growth primarily due to the lapping of our initial ramp in Latin America for interoperability among P2P apps and the lapping of leap year. Source: earnings call transcript	3.3B Visa Direct transactions grew 25% year-over-year to 3.3 billion transactions with strength in both domestic and cross-border P2P. Source: earnings call transcript	3.4B Visa Direct transactions grew 23% to 3.4 billion transactions with strength in both domestic and cross-border. Source: earnings call transcript	3.7B Visa Direct transactions grew 23% to 3.7 billion transactions, with strength in both domestic and cross-border. Source: earnings call transcript	3.7B In Q2, we had 3.7 billion transactions, up 23% year-over-year. Source: earnings call transcript	4B In money movement, Visa Direct transactions grew 21% year-over-year this quarter to $4 billion. Source: earnings call transcript	+8.1%
Employees	—	31.6K+ For the rest of the year and beyond, what I, our leadership team, and our more than 31,600 employees are focused on is serving our clients and capturing the enormous opportunities ahead. Source: earnings call transcript	—	34K+ I want to thank our more than 34,000 employees around the world who will continue to obsess about our clients and work tirelessly in 2026 and beyond to deliver value through the Visa as a Service stack to our clients and across our partner ecosystem. Source: earnings call transcript	—	—	—	—
Tokens	—	—	—	16B+ We now have over 16 billion Visa tokens, up from 10 billion just in May of 2024. Source: earnings call transcript	17.5B+ We have more than 17.5 billion tokens globally, over 3x the number of physical cards, which means that the solution has been embraced broadly across the ecosystem. Source: earnings call transcript	—	—	—
Processed transactions	—	—	—	—	—	66B Payments volume grew 9% year-over-year in constant dollars to $3.7 trillion and processed transactions grew 9% year-over-year to $66 billion. Source: earnings call transcript	72B Quarterly payments volume grew 10% year-over-year in constant dollars to cross $4 trillion, the first time in Visa's history, and processed transactions grew 10% year-over-year to $72 billion, reflecting strong and resilient consumer spending. Source: earnings call transcript	+9.1%

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Product announcements

Product	Type	Timeline
TikTok Creator Card	launch	last week
PayPay Collaboration	expansion	—
X Money	launch	soon
UnionPay International / Moneyexpress Integration	expansion	—
Intelligent Commerce Connect	launch	—
Visa CLI	launch	—
Stablecoin Settlement Blockchains	expansion	—
Machine Payments Protocol Card Specification	launch	—
Visa Large Transaction Model	launch	—
AI-enabled dispute resolution capabilities	launch	—
Prisma and Newpay Acquisition	expansion	—

Deals & partnerships

Highnote partnership

Expanded agreement with fintech issuer processor Highnote to enable their 8 OTA platforms with Visa Commercial Choice for Travel, including flexible interchange, automation, controls, and reconciliation.

Westpac partnership

Signed a new agreement expanding their partnership, demonstrating Pismo's potential for commercial card modernization and securing Westpac's commercial card portfolios (credit and debit for small business).

Scotiabank partnership

Created a new strategic agreement across 11 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean, consolidating their relationship and expanding into new areas of issuance focused on affluent and small businesses.

Wells Fargo customer contract over the coming years

Entered into an agreement to migrate to Pismo's core account ledger as part of its core banking modernization, reflecting the strength of the partnership between Wells Fargo and Visa.

Prisma acquisition

Acquisition of Prisma, a credit, debit and prepaid issuer processor in Argentina.

Newpay acquisition

Acquisition of Newpay, a real-time payment services, bill pay and an ATM network in Argentina.

Risks & headwinds

Middle East conflict impact on payments volume Q2 FY26, near-term

CEMEA payments volume growth stepped down about 2.5 points from Q1 in constant dollars. Cross-border travel-related volume was most pronounced in March.

Mitigation:Visa's diversified business model and strength in other regions, along with continued growth in cross-border eCommerce, help offset regional impacts. Expecting improvements in U.S. and Latin America inbound travel due to FIFA.

Ramadan timing impact on cross-border volume April 2026

Impacted April cross-border volume growth.

Mitigation:When normalized for Ramadan timing, total April cross-border volume growth was in line with February levels, indicating a temporary effect.

Volatility impact on international transaction revenue Q2 FY26

Volatility was below last year's levels, causing offsetting impacts on international transaction revenue despite favorable FX.

Mitigation:Volatility was better than expected for the quarter, and assumptions are being brought back up to original guidance levels for Q3 and Q4.

Q&A highlights

What were the biggest factors driving the significant revenue upside in Q2, and how do these factors influence the second half outlook?

Management attributed Q2's strong performance to higher-than-expected volatility, robust growth in value-added services (VAS) driven by demand for network products and marketing services, and lower-than-expected client incentives due to deal timing and performance adjustments. These trends, particularly volatility and VAS strength, are expected to continue into Q3, contributing to a strong outlook.

“The things that I would call out, again, are volatility. It was very low, if you recall, at the start of January when we set the guide and then it rose higher throughout the course of the quarter. It was still a drag year-over-year, but it was better than we anticipated. Secondly is our VAS business. We had strong growth again across all our portfolios.”

asked by Tien-Tsin Huang · answered by Christopher Suh

2 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Strategic Growth Pillars and Momentum

Visa's strategy is centered on four key drivers: winning in consumer, commercial, and money movement payments; expanding the addressable market through AI and agentic commerce; leveraging stablecoins and blockchain as an interoperability layer; and growing value-added services. The company reported strong momentum across these areas, with net revenue up 17% and EPS up 20% year-over-year, reflecting successful execution of its long-term growth strategy and investments in innovation.

AI and Agentic Commerce Expansion

AI and agentic commerce are anticipated to significantly expand Visa's addressable market by accelerating the digitization of commerce, increasing transaction volumes through micro-transactions, and automating B2B payments. Visa is well-positioned to capitalize on this trend due to its extensive network, robust security, and established trust.

The company has launched initiatives like Intelligent Commerce Connect and Visa CLI as proofs of concept, demonstrating its commitment to enabling secure and widely accepted payments in the evolving agentic ecosystem.

Stablecoins and On-Chain Payments Strategy

Visa is establishing itself as a critical bridge between stablecoins and real-world applications. This includes providing on-ramps and off-ramps via stablecoin-linked Visa cards, with over 160 programs globally and payment volume growing nearly 200% year-over-year in Q2. Visa is also enabling its financial institution partners to settle with it using stablecoins, achieving a $7 billion annual run rate, and is actively participating in blockchain infrastructure as a validator on networks like Tempo and Canton.

Value-Added Services (VAS) Outperformance

Value-added services revenue grew 27% year-over-year in constant dollars, now representing 30% of net revenue. This growth is fueled by the inextricable link between VAS and Visa's network business, enhanced by AI. The new Visa Large Transaction Model, a foundational AI model for payments, has shown up to a 5x increase in fraud value capture.

Client adoption of AI-embedded services like Smarter Stand-In Processing and Visa Provisioning Intelligence has been rapid, further driving VAS growth.

Pismo and Strategic Acquisitions

Pismo, Visa's cloud-native issuer processing platform, continues its global expansion, reaching 15 new countries since its acquisition and securing a significant agreement with Wells Fargo for core banking modernization. Additionally, Visa recently announced the acquisitions of Prisma and Newpay in Argentina, aiming to accelerate the deployment of advanced technologies like tokenization and biometric authentication, and to grow both carded and non-carded businesses in the region.

Payments Nationalism and Global Engagement

Visa acknowledges and actively manages payments nationalism and sovereignty concerns globally, operating with local teams and infrastructure in key markets like Europe. Despite ongoing initiatives for local payment solutions, Visa maintains a strong competitive position, adding nearly 30 million cards in Europe in the past year and expecting another 30 million from closed deals, underscoring the value of its network, brand, and trust to buyers and sellers.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.