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    VG
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    Venture Global Q1 FY26 earnings call VG

    May 12, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Venture Global, Inc. Q1 FY26 — Guidance Raise & CP2 Phase II FID

    Venture Global reported strong Q1 FY26 results, driven by increased sales volumes and strategic project advancements, including the FID of CP2 Phase II. The company significantly raised its 2026 EBITDA guidance and continued to expand its contracted capacity, demonstrating robust operational execution and market positioning despite some prior market disruptions. Management remains focused on capital-efficient growth and debt reduction, aiming for investment-grade ratings across its portfolio.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved Final Investment Decision (FID) for CP2 Phase II with an $8.6 billion project financing.

    • Increased 2026 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance to $8.2 billion-$8.5 billion from $5.2 billion-$5.8 billion.

    • Exported a record 130 cargoes in Q1 FY26, contributing to a 2026 contracted position of 84%, up from 69%.

    • Refinanced a $1.6 billion redeemable preferred security and repaid a $750 million construction loan, reducing annual interest expense by approximately $100 million.

    • Secured new offtake agreements, including an upsized 5-year deal with Vitol to 1.7 MTPA and a new 5-year deal with Total Energies for 0.85 MTPA.

    Concerns

    3
    • Experienced impact from winter storm burn and market disruptions in late 2025, though revenue and income still grew year-over-year.

    • Global LNG market faces uncertainty from the Strait of Hormuz closure and damage to Qatari liquefaction trains, with approximately 13 million tons (3% of global production) likely offline for several years.

    • Qatar's 49 million-ton Northfield expansion is delayed, with potential for further delays due to supply chain disruptions and skilled labor availability.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA
    $8.2 billion to $8.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Liquefaction Fee Assumption
    $9.50 to $10.50 per MBtu
    medium materiality
    High
    EBITDA Sensitivity to Liquefaction Fee
    $300 million to $350 million
    medium materiality
    High
    CP2 First LNG
    Second half of next year
    high materiality
    High
    North America LNG Producer Ranking
    Largest
    high materiality
    High
    Annual Production
    Over 100 million tonnes
    high materiality
    Medium
    Exported Cargoes Growth
    Another 130%
    high materiality
    High
    Online Capacity
    85 MTPA
    high materiality
    High
    CP2 Expansion Development
    Move forward by early next year
    medium materiality
    High
    Plaquemines Expansion Development
    Move forward by mid next year
    medium materiality
    High
    OpEx per Ton
    Continue to go down
    low materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    34
    Total assets
    $56 billionUp $11 billion YoY
    Q1 FY26

    At the end of the first quarter.

    Revenue backlog
    $137 billion
    Current

    Total revenue backlog from long- and medium-term contracts.

    Cargoes exported
    130Record
    Q1 FY26

    New record for cargoes exported in the quarter.

    Contracted position
    84%Up from 69% in Q4 2025
    2026 portfolio

    Increased contracted position for the 2026 portfolio.

    Contracted cargoes exported
    Over 150
    Since Calcasieu Pass COD

    No missed scheduled cargoes since COD at Calcasieu Pass.

    CP2 construction activity
    Over $12 billion
    Current

    Total construction activity at CP2 since FID.

    CP2 perimeter wall
    21,842 linear feetComplete
    Current

    Perimeter wall completed, making the facility watertight.

    CP2 liquefaction trains on foundations
    12
    Current

    Liquefaction trains delivered and on foundations at CP2 site.

    CP2 gas turbines on foundations
    3
    Current

    Gas turbines for the power plant delivered and on foundations at CP2 site.

    Cargoes exported growth
    166%
    Past 2 years

    Growth in the number of cargoes exported.

    Available capacity to contract
    33 MTPA
    Next several years

    Available capacity for contracting with the addition of first two bolt-ons.

    Global LNG capacity offline
    Approximately 20%
    Current

    Capacity offline in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.

    Global production offline
    Approximately 13 million tons3% of global production
    Several years

    Production likely to remain offline due to damaged Qatari liquefaction trains.

    US LNG infrastructure feed gas
    19 Bcf per day
    Current

    Growth of US LNG infrastructure.

    Revenue increase from higher sales volumes
    $3.1 billion
    Q1 FY26

    Driver for the increase in total revenue.

    Revenue offset from lower net LNG sales prices
    $1.4 billion
    Q1 FY26

    Offset to revenue increase due to lower LNG sales prices at Plaquemines and Calcasieu Pass.

    Income from operations increase
    $71 millionYoY
    Q1 FY26

    Increase from $1.1 billion in Q1 FY25 to $1.2 billion in Q1 FY26.

    Net income increase
    $92 millionYoY
    Q1 FY26

    Increase from $396 million in Q1 FY25 to $488 million in Q1 FY26.

    Consolidated adjusted EBITDA increase
    $26 million2% YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Increase from $1.3 billion in Q1 2021 (likely ASR error for Q1 2025) to $1.4 billion in Q1 FY26.

    EBITDA margin
    30%
    Q1 FY26

    Achieved despite challenging market conditions.

    Term Loan B refinancing
    $1.75 billion
    Subsequent to Q1 FY26

    Raised in the Term Loan B market by Capture Pass Funding LLC.

    Calcasieu Pass notes issuance
    $750 million
    Subsequent to Q1 FY26

    Issued to repay construction loan.

    Total debt reduction
    More than $900 million
    Current

    Debt outstanding reduced at project level.

    CP2 bridge loan repaid
    Over $500 million
    Since January

    Repayment of the bridge loan at CP2.

    LNG liquefaction fee
    $0.45 to $0.50
    Current

    Cost per unit at Calcasieu Pass, expected to decrease at full capacity.

    LNG liquefaction fee
    $0.44
    Current

    Cost per unit at Plaquemines, expected to decrease at full capacity.

    Data collection points
    800,000 plus to 1 million
    Current

    Data streamed every 10 seconds used for optimization.

    Total cargoes
    Over 900
    Cumulative

    Cumulative cargoes loaded.

    Ships loaded per month
    Approximately 43
    Today

    Current pace of ship loading.

    Ships loaded per month
    90s
    By 2029

    Expected pace of ship loading by early 2029.

    LNG liquefaction fee as electricity cost
    Approximately $0.06
    Current

    Equivalent cost of fuel in Europe coming out of the power plant.

    5-year deals pricing
    Roughly double20-year pricing
    Current

    Pricing achieved for 5-year offtake agreements compared to long-term 20-year contracts.

    20-year contract haven
    49.5 million tons
    Current

    Volume of 20-year contracts out of approximately 50 million tons.

    Total capital raised
    Over $11 billion
    2026 YTD

    Capital raised in support of development and to refinance existing debt.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Pipeline throughput storage
    Realized price differentiallowprices
    Sanctioned expansion backlog$8.6 billionUSD
    Basin level production volume19 Bcf/dayBcf/day
    Cost of supply unit cash cost$0.45-$0.50per MMBtu
    FCF shareholder distributions
    Take or pay contract structure52 MTPAMTPA
    Weather event volume earnings impact

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    LNG long- and medium-term contracts52 MTPAQ1 FY26

    Totaling approximately $137 billion of revenue backlog.

    Available capacity to contract33 MTPANext several years

    Excluding commissioning cargoes, with the addition of the first two bolt-ons.

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    Vitolofftake agreement5 years

    Upsized from 1.5 MTPA to approximately 1.7 MTPA.

    Hanwha Aerospaceofftake agreement20 years

    Finalized in the first quarter.

    Total Energiesofftake agreementApproximately 5 years

    New agreement for 0.85 MTPA.

    Capital programs

    3
    CP2 Phase II Project Financingclosed$8.6 billion

    Part of the final investment decision for CP2 Phase II, bringing total project financing at CP2 to $20.7 billion.

    CP2 Full Expansionplanned

    Benefit: 10 MTPA

    Includes 12 trains, a pretreatment plant, and extra turbines in the power plant. Expected to move forward by early next year (2027).

    Plaquemines Expansionplanned

    Benefit: 6.4 MTPA

    Includes 8 trains. Expected to move forward by mid next year (2027). Plans remain unchanged.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Impact of winter storm burn and market disruptionsLate 2025 and Q1 FY26

    Affected revenue and income, though still grew YoY

    Mitigation: Strong operational performance and contracting pace.

    Global LNG production offline due to Middle East conflictSeveral years

    Approximately 13 million tons (3% of global production) likely offline for several years

    Mitigation: Leveraging US low-cost natural gas and expanding production capacity.

    Delay in Qatar's Northfield expansionOngoing

    49 million-ton expansion already delayed, potential for further delays

    Mitigation: Focus on own project execution and market share growth.

    Historically low EU gas inventory levelsBefore next winter

    Near multiyear lows following cold winter temperatures

    Mitigation: Increased contracting and reliable supply from Venture Global.

    Volatility and uncertainty in global gas marketsShort to medium term

    Leads to pause in purchasing decisions, impacting short- and medium-term activity

    Mitigation: Offering a blend of short, medium, and long-term contracts; maintaining competitive pricing.

    Q&A highlights

    9

    How did the new contracts with Vitol and Total Energies come together, and will Venture Global continue to secure more orders due to its cost advantage?

    Venture Global is very active in short, medium, and long-term contracting, with good line of sight for future deals. The 5-year deals are particularly exciting as they blend risk with higher pricing (roughly double 20-year prices) and will initially be serviced by Plaquemines, then by CP2 commissioning cargoes.

    We're achieving roughly double our long-term contract prices a little bit better.

    asked by Manav Gupta · answered by Michael Sabel

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Growth & Capital Structure Optimization

    Venture Global achieved FID for CP2 Phase II with an $8.6 billion project financing, contributing to a total of $20.7 billion in project financing for CP2. The company has also actively simplified its capital structure by refinancing a $1.6 billion redeemable preferred security at Calcasieu Pass Funding LLC and repaying a $750 million construction loan. These actions are expected to reduce annual interest expense by approximately $100 million and accelerate the path to investment-grade ratings across all entities.

    02

    Operational Excellence & Contracting Momentum

    The company demonstrated robust operational performance by exporting a record 130 cargoes in Q1 FY26 and maintaining a perfect delivery record of over 150 contracted cargoes since Calcasieu Pass achieved COD. Commercial momentum continued with new 5-year offtake agreements with Vitol (upsized to 1.7 MTPA) and Total Energies (0.85 MTPA), alongside a 20-year agreement with Hanwha Aerospace. This increased the 2026 contracted position to 84% of the portfolio, up from 69% reported in Q4 2025.

    03

    Rapid CP2 Construction Progress

    CP2 construction is advancing at an accelerated pace, with over $12 billion in construction activity completed just 10 months from FID. Key milestones include the completion of 21,842 linear feet of perimeter wall, ensuring the facility is watertight, and the delivery and placement of 12 liquefaction trains and 3 gas turbines on foundations. The project remains on track for first LNG in the second half of 2027 and is anticipated to be the fastest from FID to first LNG in the LNG industry's history, with pre-COD cargoes expected to earn back nearly all project equity.

    04

    Leveraging US Natural Gas Advantage

    Despite global LNG market volatility🌐, including disruptions in the Middle East, U.S. natural gas prices remain low due to abundant reserves and increased associated gas production. Venture Global capitalizes on this 'VG advantage' through its unique infrastructure, including large-scale nitrogen removal units and direct pipeline interconnects to the Waha hub via its 90-mile CPX lateral. This allows the company to efficiently process Permian gas, maintaining a significant cost advantage in the global market.

    05

    Aggressive Bolt-on Expansion Strategy

    Venture Global is updating its near-term development plan to include a full 10 MTPA expansion of CP2 (12 trains) and an unchanged 6.4 MTPA expansion at Plaquemines (8 trains). These bolt-on expansions are designed to come online in a fraction of the time of traditional LNG projects, leveraging standardized designs and existing infrastructure. The company expects these expansions to provide significant operational leverage, further reducing OpEx per ton and enhancing overall margins.

    06

    Data-Driven Operational Optimization

    The company utilizes extensive data collection, with 800,000 to 1 million data points streamed every 10 seconds across its facilities, and employs AI tools to optimize production and manage data storage costs. This data-driven approach has enabled production capacity growth above nameplate at Calcasieu Pass and informed design changes for CP2 and future bolt-ons. The accumulated data from over 900 total cargoes allows for sophisticated modeling and simulations, leading to continuous operational improvements and optimizations.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.