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    VG
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    Venture Global, Inc. VG

    Nov 10, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Venture Global Q3 FY25 — Strong Project Advancement and Financial Growth Amidst Arbitration Updates

    Venture Global delivered strong Q3 FY25 results, driven by rapid project execution and significant financial growth. The company continues to advance its large-scale LNG projects, securing substantial financing and new long-term contracts, positioning itself as a major global producer. Despite ongoing arbitration proceedings and market fluctuations, management remains confident in its strategic growth trajectory and ability to deliver low-cost LNG.

    Highlights

    5
    • Revenue increased by 260% year-over-year to $3.3 billion in Q3 2025.

    • Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA grew by 439% year-over-year to $1.5 billion in Q3 2025.

    • The company exported 100 cargos in a single quarter and shipped its 500th cargo from Calcasieu Pass.

    • Approximately $30 billion in financing was raised year-to-date, including $15.1 billion for CP2 Phase 1 FID.

    • Venture Global signed 5.25 MTPA of new 20-year SPAs in the second half of 2025.

    Concerns

    3
    • 2025 consolidated Adjusted EBITDA guidance was marginally reduced and tightened to $6.35 billion to $6.5 billion due to lower liquefaction spreads and arbitration reserves.

    • A partial final decision was reached against Calcasieu Pass in the BP arbitration, though overall remedies sought were reduced to $4.8 billion to $5.5 billion.

    • Calcasieu Pass production was slightly down quarter-over-quarter due to longer than scheduled routine power island maintenance.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA
    $6.35 billion to $6.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Forecasted Fixed Liquefaction Fee for Available Cargos
    $4.50 to $5.50 per MMBtu
    medium materiality
    High
    Calcasieu Pass Cargos Exported
    148 cargos
    medium materiality
    High
    Plaquemines Cargos Exported
    234 to 238 cargos
    medium materiality
    High
    CP2 Phase 2 Final Investment Decision (FID)
    First half of 2026
    high materiality
    High
    Plaquemines Phase 1 Commercial Operation Date (COD)
    Q4 2026
    high materiality
    High
    Plaquemines Phase 2 Commercial Operation Date (COD)
    Mid 2027
    high materiality
    High
    CP2 Phase 1 Engineering Completion
    99% complete
    medium materiality
    High
    CP2 Phase 1 Permanent Plant Equipment Procurement
    over 98% procured
    medium materiality
    High
    CP2 Phase 1 Underground and Foundation Scopes FERC Approval
    97% approved
    medium materiality
    High
    CP2 Production Capacity
    up to 30 MTPA
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Calcasieu Pass
    Q3 cargos were in line with expectations but slightly down from Q2 due to longer than scheduled routine power island maintenance. The Q3 fixed liquefaction fee includes a noncash $27 million arbitration-related reserve. Q4 forecast includes an adjustment for arbitration reserves.
    Cargos exported Q3 2025: 36 cargosWeighted average fixed liquefaction fee Q3 2025: $1.76 per MMBtuWeighted average fixed liquefaction fee Q4 2025 forecast: $2.14 per MMBtuCargos exported FY25 forecast: 148 cargos
    Plaquemines
    Construction and commissioning are progressing on schedule, with 34 of 36 liquefaction trains started up. The facility exported 64 commissioning cargos in Q3, hitting the high end of projections. The company injected $3.3 billion of additional equity to maintain the Q4 2026 COD schedule for Phase 1 and mid-2027 for Phase 2.
    Commissioning cargos exported Q3 2025: 64 cargosWeighted average fixed liquefaction fee Q3 2025: $6.79 per MMBtuContracted cargos Q4 2025: 79 cargos (84% of potential)Weighted average fixed liquefaction fee Q4 2025 contracted: $6.41 per MMBtuCargos exported FY25 forecast: 234 to 238 cargosContribution to incremental global LNG supply this year: 82%
    25% increase
    CP2
    Site work for CP2 Phase 1 commenced following FERC approval, with FID announced on July 28. Construction is on schedule, incorporating learnings from previous projects for efficiency. Phase 2 FID is targeted for H1 2026, with over $1 billion equity already invested.
    Phase 1 engineering completion: 99%Phase 1 permanent plant equipment procured: >98%Civil site prep and soil improvement completion: 98% (across 700 acres)Piles installed: >10,000 (1/3 of total 32,000)Dredging completed: ~2 million cubic yardsPerimeter wall installed: ~5,000 feet (of 22,000 feet)

    Operational metrics

    48
    Revenue
    $3.3 billionup 260% from $0.9 billion Q3 2024
    Q3 2025

    Driven by higher sales volumes, primarily at Plaquemines, partially offset by lower net rates at Calcasieu Pass.

    Income from operations
    $1.3 billionup $1.1 billion from $189 million Q3 2024
    Q3 2025

    Primarily driven by higher sales volumes and greater total margin for LNG sold.

    Net income attributable to common stockholders
    $429 millionup $776 million from loss of $347 million Q3 2024
    Q3 2025

    Negatively impacted by $144 million from interest rate swaps and a $100 million accounting charge related to Plaquemines term loan prepayment.

    Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA
    $1.5 billionup $1.2 billion or 439% from $283 million Q3 2024
    Q3 2025

    Chiefly driven by higher sales volumes, with 100 cargos exported in Q3 2025 compared to 31 cargos in Q3 2024.

    Total cargos exported
    100vs 31 cargos Q3 2024
    Q3 2025

    Combined total from Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines.

    Volumes reflected in results
    372 TBtumore than tripling production vs 110 TBtu Q3 2024
    Q3 2025

    Reflects increased production from projects.

    Operating costs increase
    $102 millionQoQ increase
    Q3 2025

    In support of ramp-up of LNG production at Plaquemines and operating LNG tankers.

    G&A expenses increase
    $28 millionQoQ increase
    Q3 2025

    Higher G&A expenses.

    Depreciation expenses increase
    $129 millionQoQ increase
    Q3 2025

    Higher depreciation expenses.

    Development expenses reduction
    $103 millionQoQ reduction
    Q3 2025

    Many costs associated with CP2 projects were capitalized.

    Interest rate swaps impact
    -$144 millionvs -$480 million Q3 2024
    Q3 2025

    Negative impact on Q3 results.

    Plaquemines term loan accounting charge
    -$100 million
    Q3 2025

    Unfavorably impacted Q3 2025 net income, related to partial voluntary prepayment.

    Arbitration-related noncash reserve
    $27 million
    Q3 2025

    For the period from April 15 COD until the end of Q3, reflecting best estimate of award outcomes.

    Estimated quarterly noncash reserve for arbitrations
    $14 million to $15 million
    per quarter

    Estimated impact for BP and 4 remaining arbitrations, reducing Calcasieu Pass revenue and flowing through EBITDA.

    Market sensitivity to $1/MMBtu change in liquefaction fees
    $50 million to $60 millionreduced from $230 million to $240 million
    Q4 2025

    Expected change in consolidated adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025, reflecting reduced sensitivity due to contracting executed in Q3 and Q4.

    Total production capacity (in operation or under construction)
    67 MTPA
    current

    Positioned to be one of the largest LNG producers in the world.

    Target production capacity (with brownfield expansions)
    over 100 MTPA
    future

    With additional brownfield expansions.

    Total financing raised year-to-date
    approximately $30 billion
    YTD 2025

    Closed 8 separate billion-dollar-plus transactions.

    Cash and restricted cash
    over $3.5 billion
    end of Q3 2025

    Following Blackfin Pipeline financing and return of capital.

    Total reportable incident rate
    10x bettervs industry average
    current

    Despite speed of construction and development.

    CP2 site personnel
    over 3,500
    current

    On site for construction.

    CP2 construction equipment
    over 1,700
    current

    Major pieces of construction equipment on site.

    CP2 soil moved
    2 million cubic yards
    current

    Part of civil site prep and soil improvement work.

    CP2 soil stabilized
    over 6 million cubic yards
    current

    Utilizing over 580,000 tons of cement.

    CP2 cement utilized
    over 580,000 tons
    current

    For soil stabilization.

    CP2 piles installed
    over 10,0001/3 of 32,000 total required
    current

    Piling work has commenced.

    CP2 aggregate base installed
    over 1.2 million tons
    current

    To create roads and access support.

    CP2 dredging completed
    nearly 2 million cubic yards
    current

    For marine terminal work.

    CP2 perimeter wall installed
    nearly 5,000 feetof 22,000-foot total
    current

    Nearly a mile completed.

    CP2 liquefaction trains completed by Baker Hughes
    first 8
    current

    Currently being stored at fabrication facility in Italy.

    CP2 net cost (after construction/commissioning cash flow)
    approximately $21 billion
    project life

    Reduced from initial cost by estimated $8 billion of cash flow during construction.

    CP2 estimated construction/commissioning pre-COD cargo sale EBITDA proceeds
    $8 billion
    during construction

    Based on forward Henry Hub and TTF curves, reducing CP2's net cost.

    CP2 estimated annual consolidated adjusted EBITDA (post-COD, $4/MMBtu for excess)
    $4 billion
    annual

    Assuming a $4 fixed liquefaction fee for 9-11 million tons of available excess production.

    CP2 estimated annual consolidated adjusted EBITDA (post-COD, $6/MMBtu for excess)
    $5.2 billion
    annual

    Assuming a $6 fixed liquefaction fee for 9-11 million tons of available excess production.

    CP2 estimated project-level return on equity
    >30%
    project life

    Illustrative results, assuming 50% leverage or extra equity, while providing lowest price SPAs.

    Plaquemines liquefaction trains started up
    34 of 36
    current

    Safely started up despite relying on temporary power.

    Plaquemines additional equity capital injected to hold COD schedule
    approximately $3.3 billion
    over several years

    Incremental project investments to address EPC delays and deliver low-cost LNG faster.

    Plaquemines construction timeline
    54 months
    project duration

    Among the industry's best for a project of its scale.

    Plaquemines contracted cargos
    7984% of potential
    Q4 2025

    Contracted for export in Q4 2025.

    Worldwide LNG production increase
    more than 4%
    this year

    Plaquemines accounts for 82% of this incremental capacity.

    European LNG demand increase
    more than 33%
    first 10 months of the year

    As the continent seeks to move away from Russian gas.

    Calcasieu Pass contracted cargos
    11989% of total Q4 production
    Q4 2025

    Contracted for export in Q4 2025, out of a potential 134 cargos.

    LNG demand growth (historical)
    5% to 6%
    per year

    Historically observed growth rate.

    LNG demand growth (conservative estimate)
    3%
    per year

    Even at a more conservative rate, current projects are insufficient.

    Calcasieu Pass data points streamed
    222,000
    current

    Streamed every 10 seconds, contributing to data science operations.

    Total assets
    over $50 billion
    Q3 2025

    Reflects strong ownership position of valuable liquid assets.

    Ownership of CP1
    approximately 77%
    current

    Part of the company's strong ownership position.

    Ownership of VG and CP2
    100%
    current

    Part of the company's strong ownership position.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Realized price differential$1.76 per MMBtuUSD/MMBtu
    Sanctioned expansion backlog$15.1 billionUSD
    Basin level production volume67 MTPAMTPA
    Cost of supply unit cash costjust above $1,000USD/ton
    FCF shareholder distributions$889 millionUSD
    Take or pay contract structure20-yearyears

    Orderbook & backlog

    5
    New 20-year SPAs signed5.25 MTPAH2 2025

    Added in the second half of 2025, reflecting strong commercial momentum.

    Total long-term contracts45 MTPAQ3 2025

    Out of 67 MTPA total capacity in operation or under construction.

    CP2 Phase 2 equity investedover $1 billionQ3 2025

    Significant equity already invested, reducing need for many more 20-year SPAs for FID.

    CP2 Phase 1 engineering completion99%Q3 2025

    Enabling procurement of permanent plant equipment.

    CP2 Phase 1 permanent plant equipment procurementover 98%Q3 2025

    Procured for Phase 1.

    Deals & partnerships

    4
    Naturgy of SpainLong-term LNG supply agreement1 MTPA20-year

    Agreement for Phase 2 of CP2, expanding an existing long-term partnership.

    Atlantic-SEE LNG (AKTOR and DEPA, Greece)Long-term LNG supply agreementminimum 0.5 MTPA20-year

    Greece's first-ever long-term LNG supply agreement with a U.S. exporter, in combination with capacity at Alexandroupolis LNG regasification terminal.

    Blackfin joint ventureFinancing for pipeline infrastructure$1.575 billion

    Financing raised for the Blackfin Pipeline.

    a dozen banksNew revolving credit facility$2 billion

    Secured subsequent to the end of the quarter.

    Capital programs

    4
    CP2 Phase 1 Project Financingunderway$15.1 billion
    Start: July 28, 2025 (FID announced)

    Final Investment Decision (FID) project financing announced.

    Blackfin Pipeline Financingclosed$1.575 billion

    Joint venture financing which enabled an $889 million return of capital to Venture Global.

    Plaquemines Project Equity Injectioncompleted
    Period spend: approximately $3.3 billion
    Funding: equity capital
    Start: over past several years

    Benefit: maintain COD schedule

    Incremental project investments made to address EPC delays and hold the COD schedule for Phase 1 (Q4 2026) and Phase 2 (mid-2027).

    CP2 Phase 2 Equity Investmentunderway
    Spent to date: over $1 billion
    Funding: equity

    Significant equity already invested in Phase 2 of the project, reducing the need for many more 20-year SPAs to reach FID.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Calcasieu Pass arbitration proceedingsOver the course of the next few years for remaining proceedings

    Partial final decision against Calcasieu Pass in BP arbitration. Remedies sought by customers (including BP) reduced to $4.8 billion to $5.5 billion (from $6.7 billion to $7.4 billion). Aggregate liability cap for 4 remaining arbitrations (excluding BP) is $765 million. Estimated noncash reserve of $14 million to $15 million per quarter.

    Mitigation: Strong current cash position, over $50 billion in assets, earnings over next few years, and unencumbered assets provide liquidity to manage potential damages. Company strongly disagrees with BP award and expects favorable outcomes for remaining cases.

    Compression of winter liquefaction spreadsQ4 2025

    Forecasted $4.50 to $5.50 per MMBtu fixed liquefaction fee range for available cargos in Q4 2025. Reduced market sensitivity to $1/MMBtu change in liquefaction fees to $50 million to $60 million change in EBITDA (from $230 million to $240 million).

    Mitigation: Company has contracted additional projected output, reducing market sensitivity. Expects prices to remain supportive beyond 2028 due to underlying demand growth.

    Timing of DES cargo loadingsQ4 2025 impact on 2025 results

    2 DES cargos exported in 2025 will deliver in 2026.

    Mitigation: Factored into the marginally reduced and tightened 2025 EBITDA guidance range.

    Calcasieu Pass power island maintenanceQ3 2025

    Production down slightly from Q2 2025, 36 cargos exported in Q3 2025.

    Mitigation: Competitive advantage of mid-scale modular approach allows significant maintenance with modest production impacts, translating to smoother production profiles and lower operating costs.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    2026 Guidance for Consolidated Adjusted EBITDA

    Next quarter
    CurrentNot yet provided
    TargetFull year 2026 guidance

    Why it matters

    Provides forward-looking financial expectations for the company, crucial for investment thesis.

    We anticipate updating the market with full year 2026 guidance next quarter.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    How does Venture Global plan to fund a worst-case scenario for the remaining arbitrations, and can you elaborate on the calculation of the $14 million to $15 million quarterly reserve?

    The company is in a strong cash position with over $50 billion in assets, and potential damages from remaining arbitrations would be spread over several years, providing ample liquidity. The $14 million to $15 million per quarter is an accounting estimate based on the 'best estimate of award outcomes' for the remaining arbitrations, including BP, and is not a cash charge at this point.

    So in addition to current cash and the earnings that we'll achieve over the next couple of years, plus the large amount of [ unencumbered ] assets that we have. We have plenty of liquidity and time to smoothly manage exposure to any future potential damages there.

    asked by John Mackay · answered by Michael Sabel

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Project Execution & Growth Strategy

    Venture Global is rapidly expanding its LNG production capacity, aiming to become one of the largest global producers. With 67 MTPA in operation or under construction, and a target of over 100 MTPA with brownfield expansions, the company emphasizes its low-cost LNG production strategy. This approach, combined with swift execution, allows it to pass value to customers and achieve strong financial returns.

    02

    Financial Performance & Capital Structure

    The third quarter of 2025 demonstrated significant financial growth, with revenue reaching $3.3 billion and consolidated adjusted EBITDA hitting $1.5 billion. Year-to-date, Venture Global has raised approximately $30 billion in financing, including a $1.575 billion Blackfin JV financing and a new $2 billion revolving credit facility, substantially enhancing its liquidity and capital flexibility.

    03

    CP2 Project Development

    Construction at CP2 Phase 1 is progressing on schedule, with 99% of engineering complete and over 98% of permanent plant equipment procured. Over 3,500 personnel are on site, and significant civil work, piling, and foundation activities are underway. The company is incorporating lessons learned from previous projects to optimize construction speed and efficiency, including increased modularization and internalizing construction scope.

    04

    Plaquemines Project Ramp-up and COD

    Plaquemines continues its commissioning and construction, with 34 of 36 liquefaction trains safely started up. The facility exported 64 commissioning cargos in Q3, a 25% increase quarter-over-quarter. Venture Global affirmed its expected COD schedule of Q4 2026 for Phase 1 and mid-2027 for Phase 2, having injected approximately $3.3 billion of additional equity to maintain this aggressive 54-month construction timeline.

    05

    Calcasieu Pass Operations and Arbitration Update

    Calcasieu Pass exported 36 cargos in Q3, slightly below Q2 due to extended power island maintenance. The company provided an update on its arbitration proceedings, noting a partial final decision against it in the BP arbitration. However, the total remedies sought by customers have been reduced to $4.8 billion to $5.5 billion, and a noncash reserve of $14 million to $15 million per quarter is estimated for the remaining four arbitrations.

    06

    LNG Market Outlook and Demand Drivers

    Despite some softening in winter 2026 LNG spreads, demand remains robust, and margins are healthy. Venture Global anticipates supportive prices through 2028 and beyond, driven by increasing global electricity consumption, a rising middle class, industrialization, and the growing power demands of AI and data centers. The company believes historical LNG demand growth rates will continue, necessitating significant infrastructure expansion.

    07

    Data Science and Operational Excellence

    Venture Global leverages advanced data science, collecting 222,000 data points every 10 seconds at Calcasieu Pass, to optimize operations and inform design changes. This data-driven approach has contributed to the remarkable performance at Plaquemines and is expected to enable CP2 to potentially exceed its initial production targets, possibly reaching 30 MTPA.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.