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    VG
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    Venture Global, Inc. VG

    Mar 6, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Venture Global Q4 FY24 — Strong EBITDA, Plaquemines Ramp-up, and CP2 Progress

    Venture Global reported strong Q4 FY24 results, highlighted by the rapid commissioning and first cargo export from its Plaquemines LNG facility, which is demonstrating production significantly above nameplate capacity. The company provided robust 2025 EBITDA guidance, reflecting continued growth and strategic investments in its CP2 project and a newly announced Plaquemines expansion. Despite some revenue and net income declines year-over-year due to market price stabilization and increased development costs, the company emphasizes its competitive advantage in low-cost, rapid LNG liquefaction and aims to displace more expensive projects in the market.

    Highlights

    5
    • Generated $1.5 billion revenue, $871 million net income, and $688 million consolidated adjusted EBITDA in Q4 FY24.

    • Achieved first LNG production at Plaquemines on December 13, 2024, and first cargo export on December 26, 2024, only 31 months after Phase 1 FID.

    • Plaquemines liquefaction trains consistently demonstrate pro rata production levels equivalent to approximately 140% of nameplate capacity.

    • Expected 2025 consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance of $6.8 billion to $7.4 billion, reflecting significant growth.

    • CP2 project has deployed over $4 billion with suppliers and is ready for construction upon regulatory approvals, targeting first production in mid-2027.

    Concerns

    4
    • Revenue decreased by 7% in Q4 FY24 and 37% for full year 2024 compared to 2023, driven by lower weighted average fixed liquefaction fees ($7.28/MMBtu vs $12.23/MMBtu) and lower natural gas commodity fees.

    • Net income for full year 2024 decreased by $1.2 billion compared to 2023, primarily due to stabilization of international LNG prices and higher costs for Calcasieu Pass remediation and CP2 development.

    • Consolidated adjusted EBITDA decreased by 15% in Q4 FY24 and 59% for full year 2024 compared to 2023, mainly due to stabilized international LNG prices and higher O&M, G&A, and development expenses.

    • Achieving rapid construction speed at Plaquemines came at an increased cost, with approximately $2.8 billion of incremental equity invested to mitigate delays, particularly with the power island.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
    $6.8 billion to $7.4 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Calcasieu Pass cargoes exported
    140 to 148 cargoes
    medium materiality
    High
    Plaquemines cargoes exported
    219 to 239 cargoes
    medium materiality
    High
    CP2 first production of LNG
    mid-2027
    high materiality
    High
    Plaquemines Phase 3 expansion FID
    mid-'27
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    45
    Revenue
    $1.5 billiondecreased 7% from $1.6 billion in Q4 FY23
    Q4 FY24

    Our top line revenue was $1.5 billion for the fourth quarter of 2024... a $108 million and a 7% decline, respectively, from $1.6 billion... during the equivalent periods in 2023.

    Revenue
    $5 billiondecreased 37% from $7.9 billion in FY23
    FY24

    bringing our full year 2024 revenue... totals to $5 billion... a $2.9 billion decrease or a 37% decline, respectively, from... $7.9 billion during the equivalent periods in 2023.

    Net income attributable to common stockholders
    $871 millionincreased $921 million from a loss of $50 million in Q4 FY23
    Q4 FY24

    Our net income attributable to common stockholders was $871 million for the fourth quarter of 2024... a $921 million increase... from a loss of $50 million... during the fourth quarter... of 2023

    Net income attributable to common stockholders
    $1.5 billiondecreased $1.2 billion from $2.7 billion in FY23
    FY24

    Our net income attributable to common stockholders was... $1.5 billion for the full year... a $1.2 billion decrease from... $2.7 billion during the... full year of 2023

    Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
    $688 milliondecreased 15% from $813 million in Q4 FY23
    Q4 FY24

    consolidated adjusted EBITDA... $688 million... a $125 million and 15% decline, respectively, from $813 million... during the equivalent period in 2023.

    Consolidated adjusted EBITDA
    $2.1 billiondecreased 59% from $5.2 billion in FY23
    FY24

    consolidated adjusted EBITDA... $2.1 billion for the full year, a $3.1 billion decrease or a 59% decline, respectively, from... $5.2 billion during the equivalent period in 2023.

    Assets on balance sheet
    $43 billion
    FY24

    finished 2024 with over $43 billion of assets on our balance sheet

    Return on equity
    41.3%
    FY24

    realized a return on equity of 41.3%.

    Calcasieu Pass commissioning cargoes exported
    32
    Q4 FY24

    At Calcasieu Pass, we exported 32 commissioning cargoes during the fourth quarter

    Calcasieu Pass commissioning cargoes exported
    140
    FY24

    resulting in 140 commissioning cargoes in total for 2024

    Plaquemines liquefaction trains producing during construction
    16
    Q4 FY24

    another 16 trains producing during construction at Plaquemines

    Plaquemines liquefaction trains installed
    16
    Q4 FY24

    we have installed 16 more trains on their foundations at Plaquemines

    CP2 liquefaction trains with purchase orders
    36
    Q4 FY24

    we have executed purchase orders for another 36 trains, of which 12 are already being fabricated

    Total liquefaction trains (commissioned or producing during construction)
    54from 18 trains currently
    end of 2025

    by the end of 2025, we expect to have 54 trains either commissioned at Calcasieu Pass or producing during construction at Plaquemines

    Total liquefaction trains (fabricated and ready for installation)
    16
    end of 2025

    with another 16 trains fabricated and ready for installation at CP2 subject to FERC authorization

    Total aggregate liquefaction trains
    70from 18 trains
    end of 2025

    capping off a rapid expansion from 18 trains to 70 trains in aggregate over the course of just 29 months.

    Calcasieu Pass weighted average fixed liquefaction fee
    $8.79
    Q4 FY24

    We realized a weighted average fixed liquefaction fee of $8.79 per MMBtu for cargoes in the fourth quarter

    Calcasieu Pass weighted average fixed liquefaction fee
    $7.28
    FY24

    and $7.28 per MMBtu across the entire year.

    Calcasieu Pass anticipated fully weighted average liquefaction fee
    $3.85
    FY25

    For 2025, based on liquefaction fees achieved via cargoes sold on a forward basis today, we anticipate capturing a fully weighted average liquefaction fee of $3.85 per MMBtu across all forward-sold Calcasieu Pass production.

    Calcasieu Pass Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR)
    0.10outperforming national industry average of 1.9
    to date

    To date, approximately 25 million work hours have been completed at Calcasieu Pass with only 13 recordable incidents sustained. This performance has produced a total recordable incident rate, TRIR, of 0.10, far outperforming the national industry average of 1.9.

    Plaquemines liquefaction trains delivered
    34
    to date

    We have delivered 34 liquefaction trains to the site

    Plaquemines liquefaction trains producing LNG during construction
    16
    to date

    and produced LNG from 16 trains during construction to date

    Plaquemines production level vs nameplate capacity
    140%of nameplate capacity
    to date

    each of our 16 trains has regularly demonstrated pro rata production levels that equate to approximately 140% of the nameplate capacity of the facility based on aggregate outflow from [ regas ].

    Incremental equity invested for Plaquemines construction
    $2.8 billion
    over course of construction

    Over the course of construction, we have invested approximately $2.8 billion of incremental equity to fund these expanded work fronts and mitigate delays.

    Plaquemines cargoes contracted
    78
    FY25

    and have contracted 78 of these cargoes thus far

    Plaquemines weighted average fixed liquefaction fee (contracted)
    $7.94
    FY25

    capturing a weighted average fixed liquefaction fee of $7.94 per MMBtu.

    Plaquemines Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR)
    0.20roughly 1/10 of national average TRIR of 1.9
    to date

    To date, over 50 million work hours have been completed at the project with a TRIR of only 0.20, roughly 1/10 of the national average TRIR of 1.9.

    CP2 nameplate capacity
    20
    projected

    CP2 is a 20 million tonne per annum nameplate capacity facility consisting of 36 of our factory-built liquefaction trains.

    CP2 expected production capacity
    28at least
    projected

    we believe CP2 will produce at least 28 MTPA.

    CP2 estimated commissioning cargoes exported
    550
    during construction

    we currently estimate approximately 550 cargoes will be exported during the construction of the facility across the commissioning programs of the project's 2 phases

    Capital deployed for CP2
    $4 billion
    thus far

    We have deployed over $4 billion thus far with our key equipment suppliers and contractors for CP2

    Plaquemines Phase 3 expansion export capacity
    18.6
    projected

    Phase 3 expansion configuration consisting of 24 liquefaction trains and related infrastructure, which we expect to provide 18.6 MTPA of export capacity.

    Contracted nameplate production capacity
    100%
    current

    100% of the nameplate production capacity of Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines is contracted.

    Contracted nameplate capacity across first 3 projects
    39.25out of 50 MTPA total
    current

    Including CP2, 39.25 of 50 MTPA of the nameplate capacity of our first 3 projects is contracted at an average tenor of slightly under 20 years

    Illustrative total contracted revenue
    $100 billion
    long-term

    representing over $100 billion of illustrative total contracted revenue.

    Revenue decrease driver - lower fees (liquefaction and commodity)
    $2.8 billiondecrease
    FY24

    This decrease in revenue year-over-year was driven by: one, lower weighted average fixed liquefaction fees of $7.28 per MMBtu versus $12.23 per MMBtu and lower natural gas commodity fees of $2.61 per MMBtu versus $3.20 per MMBtu, resulting in a decrease of $2.8 billion

    Revenue decrease driver - lower LNG sales volumes
    $139 milliondecrease
    FY24

    two, lower LNG sales volumes of 501 TBtus versus 510 TBtus, resulting in an additional decrease of $139 million.

    Commissioning cargoes exported
    33declined from 40 in Q4 2023
    Q4

    we exported a total of 33 commissioning cargoes in Q4... which declined from 40... compared with the same periods in 2023.

    Commissioning cargoes exported
    141declined from 143 in FY23
    FY24

    and 141 commissioning cargoes over the entire year, which declined from... 143, respectively, compared with the same periods in 2023.

    LNG sales volumes reflected in results
    128
    Q4 FY24

    Of these cargoes, 128 TBtu of volumes are reflected in our results for Q4

    LNG sales volumes reflected in results
    501
    FY24

    and 501 TBtu of volumes are reflected in the full year 2024 figures.

    Consolidated adjusted EBITDA sensitivity to liquefaction fee
    $625 million to $675 millionper $1/MMBtu change
    FY25

    On average, if fixed liquefaction fees over 2025 increased or decreased by $1 per MMBtu, we expect our consolidated adjusted EBITDA range to adjust accordingly by between $625 million and $675 million.

    O&M cost per MMBtu
    $0.50 to $0.70
    ongoing

    O&M, which is generally $0.50 to $0.70 per MMBtu depending on the facility.

    Contribution margin per MMBtu
    $7.50 to $7.70
    current market

    contribution margin between $7.50 to $7.70. And that's ultimately what is factored into our EBITDA guidance.

    Calcasieu Pass weighted average fixed liquefaction fee
    $8.97
    FY25 YTD

    For 2025, thus far there, we've achieved $8.97 per MMBtu margins with the initiation of first LNG and then the ramp-up

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    Sanctioned expansion backlog$4 billionUSD
    Take or pay contract structure39.25MTPA

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Long-term SPA customersNotice of Commercial Operations Date (COD) for Calcasieu Pass project.largely 20-year tenders

    Venture Global gave notice to its long-term SPA customers that the COD for Calcasieu Pass will occur on April 15, 2025.

    Capital programs

    4
    Calcasieu Pass Projectnearing completion

    Benefit: 10 MTPA nameplate capacity

    At Calcasieu Pass, we exported 32 commissioning cargoes during the fourth quarter... and we recently gave notice to our long-term SPA customers that the commercial operations date, or COD for the project will occur on April 15, 2025.

    Plaquemines LNG Project Phase 1underway
    Period spend: $2.8 billion
    Spent to date: $2.8 billion
    Funding: incremental equity
    Start: Phase 1 FID 31 months prior to Dec 2024

    Benefit: 20 MTPA nameplate project

    At Plaquemines, we achieved first production of LNG on December 13, 2024... This approach allows us to progress commissioning efforts and recoup project costs through the sale of commissioning cargoes while we complete the construction of our combined cycle power plants... Over the course of construction, we have invested approximately $2.8 billion of incremental equity to fund these expanded work fronts and mitigate delays.

    CP2 Projectunderway
    Period spend: $4 billion
    Spent to date: $4 billion

    Benefit: 20 million tonne per annum nameplate capacity

    CP2 is a 20 million tonne per annum nameplate capacity facility consisting of 36 of our factory-built liquefaction trains... We have deployed over $4 billion thus far with our key equipment suppliers and contractors for CP2... targeting first production of LNG in mid-2027.

    Plaquemines Phase 3 Expansionannounced
    Start: prefiling process at FERC begun

    Benefit: 18.6 MTPA of export capacity

    We have begun the prefiling process at FERC for a brownfield expansion, Phase 3 expansion configuration consisting of 24 liquefaction trains and related infrastructure, which we expect to provide 18.6 MTPA of export capacity.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Lower weighted average fixed liquefaction fees and natural gas commodity feesFY24 vs FY23

    Revenue decrease of $2.8 billion (combined with commodity fees) for FY24; fixed liquefaction fees of $7.28/MMBtu in FY24 vs $12.23/MMBtu in FY23; natural gas commodity fees of $2.61/MMBtu in FY24 vs $3.20/MMBtu in FY23.

    Mitigation: Company is continuously seeking to lock in advantageous fixed liquefaction fees for commissioning cargoes and plans to contract uncontracted capacity with a blend of 3- to 20-year tenors to build a balanced portfolio.

    Stabilization of international LNG pricesFY24 vs FY23

    Led to a $1.2 billion decrease in net income for FY24 compared to FY23, and a $3.1 billion decrease in consolidated adjusted EBITDA for FY24 compared to FY23.

    Mitigation: Company focuses on being a low-cost producer and systematically layering on contracts incrementally over time to manage price volatility. They believe their cost structure allows attractive returns even in lower price markets.

    Higher costs to remediate and commission Calcasieu Pass, personnel expenses, and CP2 development costsFY24

    Contributed to the $1.2 billion decrease in net income for FY24 and $3.1 billion decrease in consolidated adjusted EBITDA for FY24.

    Mitigation: The 2025 EBITDA forecast assumes the conclusion of one-time rectification O&M spend at Calcasieu Pass and includes over $500 million for expense development spending primarily for CP2.

    Increased cost for rapid construction speed at PlaqueminesOver the course of construction

    Approximately $2.8 billion of incremental equity invested.

    Mitigation: This investment allowed the company to pull forward LNG production by months and recoup project costs through commissioning cargo sales, mitigating contractor delays, particularly with the power island.

    Potential Russia-Ukraine peace leading to Russian pipeline flows returning to EuropeNear and medium term

    Could materially bring down global LNG prices.

    Mitigation: Management believes short-term impacts would be temporary, citing strong demand for low-cost electricity. They emphasize their ability to achieve attractive IRRs even at much lower prices ($3 net spread) and can modulate growth plans based on market behavior.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Calcasieu Pass Commercial Operations Date (COD)

    Q2 FY25
    CurrentNotice given for April 15, 2025
    TargetAchievement of COD

    Why it matters

    Marks the transition from commissioning to full commercial operation, enabling servicing of long-term SPA contracts.

    we recently gave notice to our long-term SPA customers that the commercial operations date, or COD for the project will occur on April 15, 2025.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Seeking more detail on assumptions for the 2025 EBITDA guide, particularly regarding margin assumptions and the impact of the rapid Plaquemines ramp-up.

    Management explained the EBITDA forecast is sensitive to the forward curve for LNG prices (TTF, JKM vs Henry Hub), which has compressed. CFO Jack Thayer provided a detailed walk-through of how fixed liquefaction fees are calculated from net spreads, factoring in shipping, regasification, and Henry Hub costs, and how this translates to the $7-$8/MMBtu fee range in the guidance. Mike Sabel highlighted the "spectacular" performance of Plaquemines trains, consistently exceeding nameplate capacity, which is incorporated into the cargo count.

    in the guidance, we provided a range of effectively $7 to $8 of fixed liquefaction fee in our EBITDA forecast.

    asked by John Mackay · answered by Michael Sabel

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q4 and Full Year 2024 Performance Highlights

    Venture Global reported Q4 FY24 revenue of $1.5 billion, net income of $871 million, and consolidated adjusted EBITDA of $688 million. For the full year 2024, revenue reached $5 billion, net income $1.5 billion, and consolidated adjusted EBITDA $2.1 billion. The company ended 2024 with over $43 billion in assets and a return on equity of 41.3%, demonstrating strong financial health despite year-over-year revenue and EBITDA declines driven by stabilized LNG prices.

    02

    Calcasieu Pass Project Update

    The Calcasieu Pass project exported 32 commissioning cargoes in Q4, totaling 140 for FY24. The Commercial Operations Date (COD) is set for April 15, 2025, just 68 months after FID. The project realized a weighted average fixed liquefaction fee of $8.79 per MMBtu in Q4 and $7.28 per MMBtu for the full year. For 2025, the anticipated weighted average liquefaction fee for forward-sold production is $3.85 per MMBtu. The project boasts an exceptional safety record with a Total Recordable Incident Rate (TRIR) of 0.10 over 25 million work hours.

    03

    Plaquemines LNG Project Progress

    Plaquemines achieved first LNG production on December 13, 2024, and exported its first cargo 13 days later, 31 months after Phase 1 FID. The facility has 16 trains producing during construction, consistently demonstrating pro rata production levels equivalent to approximately 140% of nameplate capacity, enabled by engineering improvements. The company has invested approximately $2.8 billion of incremental equity to accelerate construction and mitigate delays, particularly with the power island, leading to an anticipated Phase 1 COD approximately 54 months post-FID.

    04

    CP2 Project Development and Regulatory Environment

    CP2, a 20 MTPA nameplate capacity facility (expected to produce at least 28 MTPA), has deployed over $4 billion with suppliers and targets first production in mid-2027. The company anticipates receiving non-FTA export approval from the DOE soon, following the Trump administration's reversal of the pause. FERC's supplemental environmental impact statement reiterated no significant emissions impacts, and the company is awaiting a notice to proceed. The current regulatory environment is viewed as highly supportive of the U.S. LNG industry.

    05

    Plaquemines Phase 3 Expansion Plans

    Venture Global announced plans for a brownfield expansion at Plaquemines, a Phase 3 configuration consisting of 24 liquefaction trains, expected to provide 18.6 MTPA of export capacity. The company has begun the pre-filing process at FERC and is targeting FID in mid-2027, after CP2's first production. This expansion aims to leverage existing infrastructure for highly accretive, economically efficient capacity, positioning the company to offer lower long-term LNG prices and capture market share.

    06

    Contracting Strategy and Market Position

    The company clarified that 100% of Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines nameplate capacity is contracted. Including CP2, 39.25 of 50 MTPA of nameplate capacity across its first three projects is contracted for an average of nearly 20 years, representing over $100 billion in illustrative total contracted revenue. For commissioning cargoes, the company seeks advantageous fixed liquefaction fees and plans to contract uncontracted CP2 capacity and Plaquemines expansion capacity with a blend of 3- to 20-year tenors, aiming for a balanced portfolio and increased earnings.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.