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WEC Energy Group (WEC) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Utilities· May 5, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

WEC Energy Group Q1 FY26 — EPS up $0.18 as VLC tariff approval unlocks multi-gigawatt data center pipeline

A quarter defined less by the earnings growth than by regulatory de-risking: Wisconsin's verbal approval of the very-large-customer tariff converts a multi-gigawatt hyperscaler pipeline into a ratable, cost-protected framework, and management signaled the capital plan will grow again this fall. The watch items — twin rate cases in Wisconsin and Illinois and secular gas-delivery softness — are regulatory and demand-mix issues, not execution ones.

Highlights

5
  • Q1 EPS of $2.45, up $0.18 YoY, driven by a $0.17 rate base growth contribution (including $0.09 of incremental AFUDC equity)

  • Wisconsin PSC verbally approved the very-large-customer (VLC) tariff on April 24 with a 10.48%–10.98% authorized ROE range and 57% equity ratio

  • 3.9 GW of data center demand (Microsoft + Vantage) already in the 5-year plan, with already-approved sites able to support another 4–5 GW of capacity

  • Weather-normalized retail electric deliveries grew 1.3% YoY (large commercial & industrial +3%), in line with forecast; FY26 EPS guidance of $5.51–$5.61 reaffirmed

  • ~$455M of common equity locked in during Q1 — almost half of expected 2026 equity needs

Concerns

4
  • Weather-adjusted natural gas deliveries fell 2.1% YoY, modestly worse than the decline the company had forecast

  • Roughly $0.03 of the quarter's $0.05 O&M favorability is maintenance/benefit-cost timing management expects to reverse over the rest of 2026

  • Local data center opposition emerging — a Port Washington TIF-district referendum and ~1-year data-center review moratoria in a couple of Wisconsin areas (management sees no impact on the site's up-to-3.5 GW potential)

  • Point Beach nuclear PPAs (~1 GW across two units) roll off in 2030/2033 at high prices, requiring a $2B–$2.5B replacement build

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Long-term EPS compound annual growth rate
7% to 8% per year on a compound annual basis, 2026 through 2030
high materiality
High
EPS growth-rate acceleration within the long-term range
Growth rate to accelerate to the upper half of the 7%–8% range starting in 2028
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 EPS guidance
$5.51 to $5.61 per share (reaffirmed)
high materiality
High
Q2 2026 EPS guidance
$0.76 to $0.82 per share
medium materiality
High
2026 day-to-day O&M growth
Increase of 3% to 5% versus 2025 actuals
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 retail electric sales growth
Around 1.5% growth
medium materiality
High
2026 common equity issuance
Up to $1.1 billion of common equity this year
medium materiality
High
Equity content of incremental capital beyond the current plan
50% equity content
medium materiality
High
Dividend growth plan
Grow the dividend at 6.5% to 7%
medium materiality
High
Share of asset base attributable to very large customers
Approximately 15% of asset base by end of 2030
high materiality
High
Wisconsin rate case timeline (non-VLC customers)
Final orders by end of 2026; new rates effective January 2027 and January 2028
medium materiality
High
Illinois rate case decision timeline
ICC decision expected by end of 2026
medium materiality
High
Incremental data-center load addition at Q3 plan update
An increment of data-center load to be added at the Q3 update, with a possible new customer announcement
high materiality
Medium
Vantage-serving transmission line regulatory approval
Commission approval expected in fall 2026
medium materiality
High
Point Beach replacement inclusion in 5-year plan
Replacement generation (most likely gas, perhaps a combined cycle) to be added to the 5-year plan this fall
high materiality
High

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Utility operations
Rate base growth was the largest driver of the segment's improvement (captured under subsector KPIs); the non-asset-sale portion of O&M favorability is timing of maintenance and benefit costs expected to reverse over the rest of 2026.
Weather impact: -$0.02 EPS YoY (Q1 FY26 ~$0.01 below normal vs ~$0.01 above normal in Q1 FY25)Day-to-day O&M favorability: +$0.05 EPS, including a $0.02 gain on a planned Illinois asset sale
———Earnings contribution +$0.17 per share YoY
American Transmission Company (equity investment)
Increase driven by continued capital investment at ATC.
———Earnings contribution +$0.01 per share YoY
Energy Infrastructure
Driven largely by higher operating income at WEC Infrastructure, plus a full quarter of the Harden 3 solar projects acquired in February 2025.
———Earnings contribution +$0.04 per share YoY
Corporate and Other
Improvement driven by favorable tax timing.
———Earnings contribution +$0.03 per share YoY

Deals & partnerships

Vantage Data Centers Hyperscale data center large-load customer (Port Washington site) $15B expected investment by Vantage to complete this phase

First facility could come online late 2027, with the phase completed in 2028. WEC holds biweekly meetings with the site and sees no slippage; a transmission line to serve the site awaits commission approval expected fall 2026.

Microsoft Hyperscale data center large-load customer (Mount Pleasant, southeastern Wisconsin)

A potential option to purchase land near the Oak Creek plant for a Microsoft expansion is no longer moving forward, but Microsoft still holds about 2,200 acres by the Oak Creek site — a location management called ideal given minimal transmission needs next to a power plant.

NextEra Energy (Point Beach nuclear plant) Power purchase agreement (expiring) Not stated (prices characterized as 'pretty high') First unit PPA ends ~2030; second unit ends 2033

Management declined to speculate on NextEra's alternatives for the asset (possibly a financial transaction), directing that question to NextEra.

Harden 3 solar projects (seller not stated) Acquisition (closed)

Cited as a driver of the segment's higher earnings alongside WEC Infrastructure operating income.

Capital programs

5-year capital plan (2026–2030) underway $37.5B
Funding: Up to $1.1B of common equity in 2026 (ATM forwards + employee benefit plan issuance); incremental capital beyond the plan funded with 50% equity content
Start: 2026

Benefit:System capacity and reliability investment, with a good portion dedicated to very large (data center) customers

Described as based on low-risk, highly executable projects. Plan expected to grow this fall with Point Beach replacement generation and incremental data-center load.

Paris and Oak Creek natural gas generation underway
Start: Under construction

Benefit:New dispatchable gas capacity (Paris units and Oak Creek combustion turbines) replacing retiring coal dispatch

Labor force and supply chain lined up to deliver on schedule. Verbatim timeline sentence is ASR-garbled ('Paris Race units in the Yield Creek combustion turbines') — Paris and Oak Creek intended.

Newly approved solar and battery storage projects announced ~$730M
Start: Approved by Wisconsin Commission (recently)

Benefit:Three additional solar projects plus one battery storage project

Purchases approved by the Wisconsin Commission; part of the regulated renewables buildout.

Solar facility placed in service (March 2026) completed ~$225M
Spent to date: 100% (in service)

Benefit:Regulated solar generation

Completed during the quarter as part of the capital plan execution.

Illinois pipe retirement/replacement program (Chicago) underway
Period spend: ~$200M in 2026
Funding: Recovery sought through the pending Illinois rate case (test year 2027)
Start: Ramping up in 2026

Benefit:Gas distribution safety/modernization via pipe retirement in Chicago

Spend ramps further in 2027 and 2028. WEC is following the ICC order's direction — workshops, program transparency, and coordination with the safety monitor.

Point Beach PPA replacement generation planned $2B–$2.5B (planning assumption, across two units of ~500 MW each)
Start: To be added to the 5-year plan in fall 2026

Benefit:~1 GW replacement capacity — most likely gas, perhaps a combined cycle; potential bill headroom vs high-priced PPAs

First unit expected fully in this fall's plan, with possible long-lead-time equipment dollars for the 2033 unit. Verbatim quote garbles the total as '$2 million to $2.5 million' — context makes $2B–$2.5B certain.

Risks & headwinds

Local opposition to data center development (Port Washington referendum) Near term

Referendum tied to the TIF district; management says it should not affect the site's build-out up to 3.5 GW, but could affect general economic development requiring TIF in that county

Mitigation:Tariff transparency showing large loads pay their full share; community benefits (property taxes) cited; no similar referenda seen elsewhere

Data center review moratoria in parts of Wisconsin ~1 year

A couple of areas across the state imposed ~1-year moratoria on reviewing data centers

Mitigation:Management views these as fact-finding pauses, not opposition to its announced pipeline

Secular natural gas delivery decline Ongoing

Weather-adjusted deliveries -2.1% YoY in Q1, slightly worse than forecast; concentrated in metropolitan areas

Mitigation:Expected decline embedded in the Wisconsin 2027–2028 test-year rate filing to true up sales

O&M favorability reversal Remainder of 2026

Portion of the $0.05 Q1 O&M benefit (excluding the $0.02 Illinois asset-sale gain) is timing of maintenance and benefit costs

Mitigation:Full-year O&M growth guidance of 3%–5% vs 2025 actuals maintained

Point Beach PPA expiration at high replacement cost 2030–2033

~1 GW rolls off (units ~2030 and 2033); replacement planning assumption $2B–$2.5B

Mitigation:Replacement (likely gas/combined cycle) to be added to the 5-year plan this fall; management sees potential bill headroom vs current PPA pricing

Illinois regulatory risk Decision expected by end of 2026

Rate case pending (test year 2027) with pipe retirement program as key driver; Illinois historically difficult to settle

Mitigation:Settlement filed resolving ~12 legacy dockets (uncollectibles/QIP) with AG, ICC staff, and Citizens Utility Board support; workshops and safety-monitor transparency on the pipe program

Weather Quarterly variability

-$0.02 EPS YoY impact in Q1; ~$0.01 below normal conditions

Mitigation:Guidance assumes normal weather for the rest of 2026; Q2 guide already reflects actual April weather

EPA rules and coal fleet compliance Ongoing

Unquantified — remaining coal units require compliance with current EPA rules

Mitigation:Plan to convert remaining coal units to natural gas; Oak Creek 7 & 8 extension bridges reliability until new gas capacity arrives late 2027

Q&A highlights

Is WEC seeing additional hyperscaler interest in Wisconsin, and how does local opposition affect confidence in attracting new customers?

Scott Lauber quantified the opportunity: about 3.9 GW across Microsoft and Vantage is in the 5-year plan, and back-of-the-envelope math on already-approved acreage suggests those sites alone could add another 4–5 GW. WEC is in discussions with a few other data center customers, and with the VLC tariff finalized he expects more information — and hopefully another announcement — on the Q3 call.

“you could see how these sites which have already been approved and have the ability to put data centers on could add another 4 to 5 gigawatts of capacity on those sites alone.”

asked by Alex (for Shar Purreza), Wells Fargo · answered by Scott Lauber

4 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

VLC tariff: design principles and finalization

The Wisconsin PSC's verbal approval of the very-large-customer tariff on April 24 was the quarter's pivotal regulatory event, with the written order expected within weeks. Management deliberately filed it as a transparent tariff so that other VLC customers, the public, and communities can see large loads paying their full share.

The structure balances four goals: reliable service to very large customers with a predictable cost profile, protection of other customers from any cost to serve those loads, protection of the company's financial health, and support for regional economic development. Transmission for these customers will be charged on a nominated basis so buildout is not subsidized by other ratepayers, and management said early customer feedback on the commission's modifications surfaced nothing major.

Data center momentum and Wisconsin economic development

Management framed the hyperscaler opportunity as sites already approved and under construction rather than speculative interest, with discussions underway with a few additional data center operators now that tariff clarity exists. Beyond data centers, the service territory is seeing broader growth: Milwaukee Tool announced a further campus expansion including a new research and development facility, Waukesha Engine is expanding its local operations and employee base, and realtor.com named Racine County — home of the Microsoft site — one of the nation's hottest housing markets.

Management also argued communities increasingly see property-tax and affordability benefits from hosting data centers, citing Port Washington and Mount Pleasant as examples.

Generation fleet transition and reliability planning

WEC extended the lives of Oak Creek coal units 7 and 8 to preserve dispatchable capacity until the new Paris and Oak Creek gas units begin coming online in late 2027, stressing the units run only on high-need days, required no significant incremental capital, and serve reliability and affordability.

For the remaining coal fleet, the plan is conversion to natural gas while complying with EPA rules as they evolve. On Point Beach, management is running its annual summer generation-planning process weighing native load plus very-large-customer growth, and characterized the replacement approach as 'all of the above' — renewables and combustion turbines, but possibly a combined cycle given its energy contribution — while noting replacement could also create bill headroom versus the high-priced PPAs in the 2030–2033 timeframe.

Regulatory calendar: Wisconsin GRC and Illinois progress

The Wisconsin rate case filed April 1 was described as balanced and modest — a mix of some new generation, transmission, distribution reliability, general inflation, and sales true-ups, with no single large initiative — and management emphasized that very large customers are paying a significant share of capital additions rather than non-VLC customers.

A settlement window could open after the summer staff audit, noting the commission settled cases with other Wisconsin utilities last year. In Illinois, the newly filed settlement — signed with support of the Attorney General, ICC staff, and the Citizens Utility Board — resolves roughly 12 long-running dockets on uncollectibles and the prior QIP rider.

Management called Illinois historically hard to settle on rate cases, expects first intervenor testimony imminently, and anticipates moving to an annual rate-case cadence as the pipe retirement rider ramps, while running the mandated workshops with transparency and a safety monitor.

Q1 earnings drivers and financing execution

The year-over-year earnings improvement was led by utility operations, with rate base growth as the dominant driver, partially offset by unfavorable weather; O&M favorability was flagged as largely timing (plus an Illinois asset-sale gain) that reverses over the year. American Transmission Company and the Energy Infrastructure segment both contributed growth, the latter helped by higher WEC Infrastructure operating income and a full quarter of the Harden 3 solar projects.

On financing, the company front-loaded its equity program via ATM forward contracts, giving it flexibility on settlement timing while covering nearly half of the year's needs in one quarter.

Nonregulated renewables: repowering and recontracting optionality

With early production tax credits beginning to roll off the nonregulated renewables fleet, WEC safe-harbored materials last year so it can repower units and qualify for a further decade of PTCs, with an evaluation update promised on the third-quarter call.

Management also sees recontracting upside: renewable energy and capacity are more valuable today than when the original contracts were struck, though contract expirations do not coincide with PTC roll-off dates, so the two benefits arrive on different timelines.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.