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    WEC
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    WEC ENERGY GROUP, INC. WEC

    Feb 4, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    WEC Energy Group Q4 FY24 — Strong Performance Driven by Data Center Demand and Robust Capital Plan

    WEC Energy Group reported solid Q4 FY24 results, achieving adjusted EPS near the top of its guidance despite significant weather headwinds, which were offset by operational efficiencies. The company is experiencing robust economic growth, particularly from large data center developments like Microsoft and Cloverleaf, driving a record $28 billion 5-year capital plan. Management reaffirmed its 2025 EPS guidance and long-term growth rate, emphasizing its commitment to infrastructure investment and shareholder returns through consistent dividend increases, while navigating regulatory proceedings and potential tariff impacts.

    Highlights

    5
    • Delivered 2024 adjusted earnings of $4.88 per share, near the top end of guidance.

    • Reaffirmed 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.17 to $5.27 per share and long-term CAGR of 6.5% to 7%.

    • Announced a $3 billion expansion by Eli Lilly and Microsoft's continued commitment, including an additional 240 acres for data center development.

    • Cloverleaf announced plans for a 1 gigawatt data center campus in Port Washington, incremental to current plans.

    • Increased dividend by 6.9% to an annualized $3.57 per share, marking the 22nd consecutive year of increases.

    Concerns

    3
    • Experienced a $0.25 per share weather headwind in 2024, offset by O&M and financing initiatives.

    • Microsoft paused construction on two areas of its data center complex for design review, with one area resuming and the third still under review.

    • O&M for 2025 is projected to grow 8% to 10% year-over-year compared to 2024 actuals due to restoration of run rate, new projects, and increased reliability spending.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EPS
    $5.17 to $5.27 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term compound annual growth rate
    6.5% to 7%
    high materiality
    High
    Projected EPS
    $2.13 per share to $2.23 per share
    medium materiality
    High
    Common equity issuance
    $700 million to $800 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Total common equity financing
    $2.7 billion and $3.2 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Incremental capital funding equity content
    50%
    medium materiality
    High
    Weather-normal retail electric sales growth
    0.7%
    medium materiality
    High
    Weather-normal retail gas sales growth
    1.9%
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    4
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Utility Operations
    Weather, depreciation, O&M, and interest expense headwinds were more than offset by positive variances from rate base growth, fuel, tax, and other items.
    Weather impact: -$0.05 per shareDepreciation & Amortization impact: -$0.38 per shareO&M impact: -$0.38 per shareInterest Expense impact: -$0.38 per shareRate Base Growth impact: +$0.49 per shareFuel impact: +$0.49 per shareTax impact: +$0.49 per shareOther impact: +$0.49 per share
    grew $0.06 year-over-year
    American Transmission Company (ATC)
    Earnings growth driven by a FERC order resolving MISO ROE complaints and continued capital investment.
    FERC ROE order impact: +$0.05 per shareCapital investment impact: +$0.02 per shareROE: 10.48%
    increased $0.07
    Energy Infrastructure
    Growth driven by additional investment in Power the Future plans and WEC Infrastructure projects.
    Power the Future plans investment impact: +$0.03 per shareWEC Infrastructure impact: +$0.10 per share
    grew $0.13
    Corporate and Other
    Higher interest expense was largely offset by tax and other items.
    Higher interest expense: substantially offset by tax and other items
    decreased to $0.01

    Operational metrics

    17
    Adjusted EPS
    $4.88increased $0.25 per share over 2023
    FY24

    near the top end of the earnings guidance

    Weather headwind impact on EPS
    -$0.25compared to normal conditions
    FY24

    experienced the warmest winter on record

    O&M and fuel management savings
    offset $0.25
    FY24

    offset weather headwind

    Total company day-to-day O&M increase
    2%over 2023
    FY24

    considerably lower than original guidance of 6% to 7% increase

    Weather-normal retail electric sales growth
    0.7%from 2024 level
    2025

    projected

    Weather-normal retail gas sales growth
    1.9%from 2024 level
    2025

    projected

    External funding
    $4.5 billion
    2024

    successfully executed

    Common equity issued
    $200 million
    2024

    part of external funding

    Illinois Safety Modernization Program annual capital
    $90 million
    annually

    currently in plan to support facility relocates and reliability/safety issues

    Illinois Safety Modernization Program potential annual capital
    $300 million to $350 million
    annually

    to reach staff recommendation, would require ramping up spending

    Data center development timeline
    3 to 4 years
    future

    from farm field to energy flow, including transmission and generation

    O&M growth year-over-year
    8% to 10%compared to 2024 actuals
    2025

    driven by restoring run rate, new projects, and commission-approved reliability spending

    Retail electric sales growth (LC&I)
    1.9%
    2025

    embedded in 0.7% total growth

    Retail electric sales sectors with positive/flat growth
    11 of 16
    2024

    tracked sectors

    Point Beach first lease end
    2030
    future

    contracted

    Point Beach second PPA end
    2033
    future

    contracted

    Debt extinguishment gain
    December 2024

    realized some gain, neutral for 2025, used opportunistically as a tool for flexibility

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Adjusted operating EPS$4.88per share
    Multi year capital plan$28 billionUSD
    Dividend per share growth$3.57per share
    Regulatory rate base growth
    Allowed ROE equity layer rate cases9.8% ROE, 53% equity layer%
    Combined electric gas framework mandates
    Major regulated project construction progress180 megawattssolar capacity

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Cloverleaf Data Center Campus1 GWQ4 FY24

    incremental to current plan

    Initial announcement, 1,700 acres, construction could start this fall, energy flow 3-4 years (2028-2029 timeframe)

    Microsoft Data Center Complex$3.3 billion investmentQ4 FY24

    additional 240 acres purchased

    Investment by end of 2026; one paused area resumed, third area still under design review for closed-loop water system; plans unaffected by design changes

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    Eli LillyExpansion of existing pharmaceutical facility$3 billion

    Less than a year after acquiring a facility in Pleasant Prairie, announced expansion plans.

    MicrosoftPurchase of additional land for data center development

    Purchased an additional 240 acres of land just last week for another data center development.

    CloverleafDevelopment of a large data center campus

    Announced plans to develop approximately 1,700 acres in Port Washington, construction could start this fall.

    Capital programs

    8
    5-year Capital Planunderway$28 billion

    Largest in company history, updated in October

    Renewable Investment Planunderway$9.1 billion

    Benefit: 4,300 megawatts

    Part of the 5-year capital plan

    Paris Solar Parkcompleted$319 million

    Benefit: 180 megawatts

    Brought into service in 2024 for Wisconsin utility customers

    Darian Solar Parkunderway

    Benefit: 225 megawatts

    Expected to go into service in 2025

    Natural Gas Generation Projectspending regulatory approval

    Benefit: 1,200 megawatts efficient natural gas generation, 33-mile lateral, 2 Bcf LNG storage

    Wisconsin Commission rulings expected throughout the year

    Delilah I and Maple Flats Solar Projects (WEC Infrastructure)completed$890 million

    Benefit: 550 megawatts (90% ownership)

    Went online at the end of 2024

    Harden 3 Project (WEC Infrastructure)nearing completion$407 million

    Benefit: 250 megawatts (90% ownership)

    Expected to close in Q1 2025, fulfills 5-year planned investment at WEC Infrastructure

    MISO Tranche 2.1 Transmission Investments (ATC)announced$2 billion

    ATC expected to be assigned approximately $2 billion; additional opportunity of $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion through ROFR or competitive bid

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Warmest winter on recordFY24

    $0.25 per share negative impact on 2024 adjusted earnings

    Mitigation: Offset by O&M and fuel management, tax, and financing activities

    Pause in construction for design review on Microsoft data center complexOngoing, decision expected in next couple of months for third area

    One area paused, now resumed; third area still under review for potential closed-loop water system

    Mitigation: Microsoft's plans to invest $3.3 billion by end of 2026 and WEC's capital plan/demand growth projections over next 5 years are not anticipated to be impacted.

    Higher O&M growth year-over-yearFY25

    8% to 10% growth in 2025 compared to 2024 actuals

    Mitigation: Driven by restoration of run rate, new projects, and commission-approved reliability spending (e.g., vegetation management).

    Regulatory uncertainty regarding the future of natural gas in IllinoisExtending into 2026

    Proceeding scheduled to extend into 2026

    Mitigation: Actively engaged in proceedings; decision on Safety Modernization Program expected this quarter.

    Potential tariffs on solar projects (China) and gas (Canada/Mexico)Ongoing

    China tariffs could affect solar projects, but manageable; 10% gas tariff would move gas cost from $3 to $3.30, small portion of supply

    Mitigation: Watching closely; gas price movements from weather are faster than tariff impacts; believe it will be manageable.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Microsoft Data Center Design Review

    next couple of months
    CurrentThird area still under design review for potential closed-loop water system
    TargetDecision on design for third area

    Why it matters

    Clarifies the full scope and timeline of Microsoft's significant data center investment, impacting WEC's demand growth projections.

    Microsoft is still reviewing designs for the third area. ... So that we expect to get more information on that in the next couple of months.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    Seeking clarification on the size, timing, and whether the Cloverleaf project is incremental to the existing capital plan.

    Scott Lauber confirmed the 1,700-acre site and initial 1 GW load are incremental to the current plan. Construction could start this fall, with energy flow taking 3-4 years (2028-2029 timeframe).

    And right now, the initial look -- and in their initial announcement, they talked about a gigawatt of additional, which would be all incremental to our plan.

    asked by Shahriar Pourreza · answered by Scott Lauber

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Economic Development and Data Centers

    WEC Energy Group is experiencing significant economic growth in its service territory, particularly along the I-94 corridor between Milwaukee and Chicago. Eli Lilly announced a $3 billion expansion, adding 750 highly skilled jobs. Microsoft is progressing on its large data center complex, investing $3.3 billion by the end of 2026, and recently purchased an additional 240 acres. Cloverleaf announced plans for a 1,700-acre data center campus in Port Washington, projecting a 1 gigawatt load, which is incremental to current plans.

    02

    Capital Investment Plan

    The company's updated $28 billion 5-year capital plan is its largest ever, driven by the need to serve the growing economy. This includes $9.1 billion for 4,300 megawatts of renewable energy over the next 5 years, with Paris Solar Park (180 MW, $319M investment) brought online in 2024 and Darian Solar Park (225 MW) expected in 2025. Natural gas generation is also critical, with 1,200 MW of efficient natural gas generation, a 33-mile lateral, and 2 Bcf of LNG storage awaiting Wisconsin Commission rulings.

    03

    WEC Infrastructure and Transmission

    The WEC Infrastructure business completed investments in Delilah I and Maple Flats Solar projects (550 MW, $890M for 90% ownership) and expects to close on the Harden 3 project (250 MW, $407M for 90% ownership) in Q1. This fulfills their 5-year planned investment in WEC Infrastructure. MISO's Tranche 2.1 capital investments are expected to assign ATC (60% owned by WEC) approximately $2 billion, with an additional opportunity of up to $1.5 billion to $1.8 billion through ROFR or competitive bid.

    04

    Regulatory Environment

    WEC currently has no planned or active rate cases. The Wisconsin Commission maintained a 53% financial equity layer and a 9.8% return on equity for Wisconsin utilities for test years 2025 and 2026. In Illinois, two proceedings are ongoing: one evaluating the future of natural gas (extending into 2026) and a review of the Safety Modernization Program, with a decision expected this quarter.

    05

    Financial Performance and Outlook

    WEC reported 2024 adjusted earnings of $4.88 per share, overcoming a $0.25 per share weather headwind🌐 through O&M and financing initiatives. Utility operations grew $0.06 year-over-year, ATC earnings increased $0.07 (including $0.05 from a FERC ROE order), and Energy Infrastructure grew $0.13. The company reaffirmed its 2025 adjusted EPS guidance of $5.17 to $5.27 per share and a long-term EPS CAGR of 6.5% to 7%.

    06

    Financing and Shareholder Returns

    In 2024, WEC executed over $4.5 billion in external funding, including nearly $200 million in common equity. For 2025, they expect to issue $700 million to $800 million of common equity via ATM and other plans, with total common equity financing of $2.7 billion to $3.2 billion over the next 5 years. The Board increased the dividend by 6.9% to an annualized $3.57 per share, consistent with its 65% to 70% payout policy and marking 22 consecutive years of increases.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.