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WEC Energy Group (WEC) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Dec 2025 (Q4 FY25)· Utilities· Feb 5, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

WEC Energy Group Q4 FY25 — Data Center Growth Drives Expanded Capital Plan and Reaffirmed Long-Term EPS Growth

WEC Energy Group concluded FY25 with strong adjusted earnings, driven by robust economic growth and significant data center demand in its service territory. This growth has led to a substantial increase in the multi-year capital plan, reinforcing the company's confidence in its long-term EPS growth trajectory. Management is actively navigating regulatory matters in Illinois and Wisconsin, while strategically investing in generation and infrastructure to meet evolving energy needs.

Highlights

5
  • Delivered full year 2025 adjusted EPS of $5.27, an 8% increase year-over-year.

  • Expanded 5-year capital plan by $1 billion to $37.5 billion, driven by 3.9 GW of new electric demand from data centers.

  • Reaffirmed long-term EPS growth target of 7% to 8% CAGR, with acceleration to the upper half of the range starting in 2028.

  • Increased dividend by 6.7% to an annualized $3.81 per share, marking the 23rd consecutive year of increases.

  • Projecting weather-normal retail electric sales in Wisconsin to grow 1.6% in 2026, with large commercial and industrial segment growing 5.8%.

Concerns

3
  • Incurred a $0.46 per share charge related to a proposed Illinois settlement, including a $130 million rate base reduction and $125 million in customer credits.

  • Higher interest expense contributed to a $0.24 variance in the Corporate and Other segment.

  • Potential pressure on FFO to debt metrics due to the Illinois settlement's cash component.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full Year 2026 Adjusted EPS
$5.51 to $5.61 per share
high materiality
High
Q1 2026 Adjusted EPS
$2.27 per share to $2.37 per share
medium materiality
High
Long-Term EPS Growth Rate
7% to 8% a year
high materiality
High
2026 Debt Funding
$4 billion to $5 billion
medium materiality
High
2026 Common Equity Issuance
$900 million and $1.1 billion
medium materiality
High
Dividend Payout Ratio
65% to 70% of our earnings
medium materiality
High

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Utility Operations
Adjusted earnings were $0.63 higher in 2025 compared to 2024, positively impacted by weather and significant rate base growth, partially offset by higher depreciation, amortization, O&M, and tax items.
Adjusted earnings contribution: $0.63 higher in 2025 vs 2024Weather impact on earnings: $0.35 positive vs 2024Rate base growth contribution to earnings: $0.74AFUDC equity contribution to earnings: $0.12
————
American Transmission Company (ATC)
Earnings increased $0.02 compared to 2024, driven by continued capital investment to meet demand growth and maintain reliability, partially offset by a one-time gain recognized in 2024.
Earnings increase: $0.02 vs 2024Capital investment contribution to earnings: $0.06
————
Energy Infrastructure Segment
Earnings increased $0.10 in 2025 from higher production tax credits associated with the acquisition of additional solar generation projects in late 2024 and early 2025.
Earnings increase: $0.10 vs 2024
————
Corporate and Other Segment
Experienced a $0.24 negative variance driven by higher interest expense from increased debt balances, and gains recorded in 2024 from early debt retirements.
Variance: $0.24 negative vs 2024
————

Deals & partnerships

Microsoft Customer contract / Infrastructure development Multiyear delivery

Purchased over 2,000 acres. First phase expected to go online in 2026. Received approval for 15 additional data center buildings. Pledged to be a good neighbor, pay fair share for electricity, minimize water use, create jobs, add to tax base, and invest in community.

Vantage Data Centers (for Oracle and OpenAI) Customer contract / Infrastructure development $15 billion

Signed on to develop facilities on approximately 1,900 acres. Broke ground on initial phase (670 acres) in December 2025. First facility could come online late 2026. Vantage expects to invest $15 billion to complete this phase in 2028.

Foxconn Local investment / Expansion $0.5 billion

Announced new plans to renovate and expand its Racine County campus, focusing on manufacturing data center components. Expects to invest more than $0.5 billion.

Rockwell Automation Local investment / New facility

Planned in November to build a new manufacturing site in Southeastern Wisconsin, expected to span over 1 million square feet, potentially becoming the company's largest manufacturing campus globally.

Uline Local investment / Expansion

Completed yet another large land purchase to further expand its business operations in Southeast Wisconsin.

Capital programs

5-Year Capital Plan underway $37.5 billion
Funding: 50% equity content for incremental capital
Start: 2026

Benefit:Meet 3.9 GW electric demand growth

Updated plan, increased by $1 billion due to Microsoft expansion. Projecting long-term EPS growth of 7% to 8%.

Natural Gas Generation & LNG Storage Investment underway $7.4 billion
Start: 2026

Benefit:Modern, efficient natural gas generation and LNG storage, including combustion turbines, RICE units, and upgrades.

Part of the 5-year capital plan to maintain a reliable balanced generation mix.

Renewables Investment underway $12.6 billion
Start: 2026

Benefit:Add 6,500 megawatts to generation fleet

Part of the 5-year capital plan. Includes 7 renewable generation projects and 2 battery storage facilities under construction.

Oak Creek Combustion Turbine Project well underway

Benefit:5-unit, 1,100-megawatt combustion turbine

Construction is well underway at the Oak Creek site.

LNG Facility broke ground
Start: Q4 2025

Benefit:2 Bcf LNG facility

Broke ground in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Paris RICE Generation Site broke ground
Start: Q4 2025

Benefit:7-unit RICE generation site

Broke ground in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Illinois Pipe Retirement Program underway
Start: 2026

Benefit:Retire all cast iron and ductile iron pipe under 36 inches in diameter

Key driver for Illinois rate request. Approximately 35 miles expected to be retired in 2026, ramping up to a run rate in 2028.

Risks & headwinds

Financial impact from Illinois proposed settlement FY25 (charge), prospective (rate base reduction), 3 years (customer credits)

$0.46 per share one-time charge; $130 million rate base reduction; $125 million customer credits over 3 years (approx. $50 million in first year)

Mitigation:Settlement resolves 12 pending cases, allowing focus on future; reaffirmed long-term EPS growth guidance incorporates this impact, offset by data center growth.

Increased interest expense FY25

$0.24 negative variance in Corporate and Other segment

Mitigation:Company plans for $4 billion to $5 billion in debt funding in 2026, including refinancing, and has significant capacity for hybrid financing.

Potential pressure on FFO to debt metrics Near-term

Due to cash component of Illinois settlement

Mitigation:Management acknowledged the pressure but did not detail specific mitigation beyond overall financial planning.

Affordability concerns and election rhetoric in Wisconsin Leading up to Wisconsin GRC filing in April 2026 and beyond

General concern, no specific quantification

Mitigation:Company is focused on keeping rates low, implementing cost-saving initiatives, and returning $55 million in positive fuel recovery to customers. VLC tariff designed to ensure large customers pay their fair share.

Local opposition to data centers Ongoing

Not quantified, mentioned as 'a little noise around the state'

Mitigation:Hyperscalers and company are increasing transparency and working proactively with communities; VLC tariff ensures fair cost allocation.

Expiration of Point Beach PPA contracts 2030 and 2033

Contracts end in 2030 and early 2033

Mitigation:Evaluating replacement options, including new generation builds, with potential upside for the capital plan; analysis to be factored into fall update.

Q&A highlights

Seeking more detail on the 500 MW Microsoft expansion, potential beyond the 5-year plan, and the full scale of the opportunity.

Scott Lauber confirmed the 500 MW is from new land north of Highway 11, and Microsoft views Wisconsin as a "multiyear delivery," suggesting more growth beyond 2030. He noted Microsoft is looking for more land and has been transparent locally, but he doesn't want to get ahead of their announcements.

“I do not want to get out ahead of Microsoft and their plans. All I can really say is they're starting to do land at about 570 acres, and that's about where we put that 500 megawatts. There's more land. That's just the start of that development.”

asked by Julien Dumoulin-Smith · answered by Scott Lauber

2 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Accelerated Data Center Demand & Capital Plan Expansion

WEC Energy Group is experiencing significant electric demand growth, primarily from data centers in its service territory. Microsoft's expanded campus and Vantage Data Centers' projects for Oracle and OpenAI are driving an additional 3.9 gigawatts of electric demand growth in the 5-year plan.

This has led to a $1 billion increase in the capital plan, now totaling $37.5 billion over the next five years, reinforcing the company's long-term growth outlook.

Illinois Regulatory Settlement

The company reached a proposed settlement with the Illinois Attorney General to resolve 12 pending cases, including rider QIP and uncollectible rider reconciliations from 2017-2023. The settlement involves a $130 million rate base reduction and $125 million in customer credits over three years, with the first $50 million in the initial year.

This aims to put historical issues behind them and focus on future investments like the pipe retirement program.

Wisconsin Regulatory Strategy

WEC is pursuing a very large customer (VLC) tariff in Wisconsin, designed to ensure hyperscalers pay their fair share while protecting other customers. A commission order is expected in early May 2026. The company plans to file rate reviews in April 2026 for forward-looking test years 2027 and 2028, with affordability remaining a key consideration in their rate-setting process.

Strategic Generation Investments

To meet the growing demand, the company plans to invest $7.4 billion in modern natural gas generation and LNG storage, including a 1,100-megawatt combustion turbine project and a 2 Bcf LNG facility. Additionally, $12.6 billion is allocated for renewables, aiming to add 6,500 megawatts to the generation fleet, with 7 renewable and 2 battery storage facilities currently under construction.

Financing and Shareholder Returns

WEC expects to fund its capital plan with $4 billion to $5 billion in debt and $900 million to $1.1 billion in common equity in 2026, maintaining a 50% equity content for incremental capital. The Board approved a 6.7% dividend increase to $3.81 per share annually, aligning with its policy of paying out 65% to 70% of earnings, marking 23 consecutive years of dividend growth.

Point Beach PPA & Future Generation

The contracts for Point Beach nuclear plant expire in 2030 and 2033. Management is evaluating replacement options, viewing potential new generation builds as an upside opportunity for the capital plan, especially given the high cost of the existing PPA and the need for economic solutions for customers.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.