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    WFC
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    WELLS FARGO & COMPANY/MN WFC

    Jan 15, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Wells Fargo Q4 FY24 — Strong Performance and Strategic Progress Towards 15% ROTCE Target

    Wells Fargo delivered solid Q4 FY24 results, capping a year of significant progress in risk and control work, strategic investments, and capital returns. The company's earnings profile continues to improve, driven by strong fee-based revenue growth and disciplined expense management, largely offsetting expected NII declines. Management remains confident in its path to a 15% ROTCE, leveraging growth in credit card, wealth management, and investment banking, while navigating ongoing commercial real estate office portfolio weakness and maintaining flexibility for continued investments.

    Highlights

    7
    • Diluted earnings per share was up 11% from a year ago.

    • Fee-based revenue grew 15% from a year ago, largely offsetting expected NII decline.

    • Repurchased approximately $20 billion of common stock in 2024, up 64% from a year ago, and increased common stock dividend per share by 15%.

    • Opened over 2.4 million new credit card accounts in 2024, with credit performing as expected.

    • Mobile active customers grew by 1.5 million in 2024, up 5% from a year ago, and Zelle transactions exceeded 1 billion, up 22% from a year ago.

    • Investment banking market share with commercial banking clients increased by approximately 150 basis points in 2024.

    • Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE) improved to 13.4% in 2024, with a clear path to 15%.

    Concerns

    4
    • Commercial real estate office fundamentals remain weak, with expectations for lumpy losses.

    • Auto revenue decreased 21% from a year ago, driven by lower loan balances and loan spread compression.

    • Personal lending revenue declined due to lower loan balances and loan spread compression.

    • Markets revenue was down 5% from a year ago, driven by lower revenues in equities and municipals.

    Guidance & targets

    7
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2025 Net Interest Income (NII)
    approximately 1% to 3% higher
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Net Interest Income (NII)
    approximately 3% to 5% higher
    high materiality
    High
    Net Interest Income (NII) Trajectory
    relatively stable in the first half of 2025, with more growth in the second half
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2025 Noninterest Expense
    approximately $54.2 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Average Loans Growth
    modestly from fourth quarter of 2024 to fourth quarter of 2025
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Deposits Growth
    modestly
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Return on Tangible Common Equity (ROTCE)
    15%
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    10
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Consumer Banking and Lending - Consumer Small and Business Banking
    Revenue declined due to lower net interest income, reflecting customer migration to higher-yielding deposit products, though the pace of migration is slowing.
    -7%
    Consumer Banking and Lending - Home Lending
    Revenue grew driven by higher mortgage banking fees.
    2%
    Consumer Banking and Lending - Credit Card
    Revenue grew as loan balances increased and card fees grew from higher point-of-sale volume. New products are performing as expected.
    3%
    Consumer Banking and Lending - Auto
    Revenue decreased due to lower loan balances, reflecting previous credit tightening actions and continued loan spread compression.
    -21%
    Commercial Banking - Middle Market Banking
    Revenue was down due to lower net interest income, reflecting higher deposit costs, partially offset by growth in treasury management fees.
    Average loan balances: up
    -2%
    Commercial Banking - Asset-Based Lending and Leasing
    Revenue decreased due to lower net interest income and lease income, partially offset by improved results from equity investments.
    Average loan balances: down
    -12%
    Corporate and Investment Banking - Banking
    Revenue was down due to higher deposit costs and lower loan balances, partially offset by higher investment banking revenue from increased activity in equity and debt capital markets and higher advisory fees.
    -4%
    Corporate and Investment Banking - Commercial Real Estate
    Revenue decreased, reflecting the impact of lower loan balances, partially offset by higher capital markets revenue from higher volumes in commercial mortgage-backed securities, real estate loan syndications, and multifamily capital.
    -1%
    Corporate and Investment Banking - Markets
    Revenue was down, driven by lower revenues in equities and municipals, partially offset by stronger performance in most other FICC products. Included an $85 million loss from funding valuation adjustments for derivatives.
    -5%
    Wealth and Investment Management
    Revenue increased due to higher asset-based fees driven by increased market valuations. Growth in deposits and loans benefited from product enhancements and pricing improvements.
    Average deposits: up 16% YoYAverage loans: grew 2% YoY
    8%

    Operational metrics

    30
    Diluted EPS
    $1.43
    Q4 FY24

    Q4 FY24 diluted EPS included $0.26 per share of discrete tax benefits, largely offset by $0.15 per share of severance and $0.10 per share of net losses on the sale of debt securities.

    Severance expense
    $647 million
    Q4 FY24

    Severance expense incurred in Q4 FY24.

    Net losses on sale of debt securities
    $448 million
    Q4 FY24

    Resulted from the repositioning of approximately $80 billion of securities into higher-yielding securities.

    Investment portfolio repositioning payback period
    2.5 years
    Q4 FY24

    Estimated payback period for the repositioning of approximately $80 billion of securities.

    Average common shares outstanding reduction
    21%
    Since Q4 2019

    Result of active capital return over the past 5 years.

    Common stock dividend per share increase
    15%
    2024

    Increased in 2024.

    New credit card accounts opened
    2.4 million
    2024

    Reflects successful rollout of new card products while maintaining credit standards.

    Credit card spend growth
    $17 billionup
    YoY

    Demonstrates momentum in the credit card business.

    Home lending headcount reduction
    47%
    Since early 2023

    Part of repositioning the home lending business.

    Third-party mortgage loan serviced reduction
    28%
    Since early 2023

    Part of streamlining the home lending business.

    Debit card transactions
    10 billionup 2% YoY
    2024

    Highest annual volume in company history.

    Branches refurbished
    730
    2024

    Part of efforts to accelerate branch refurbishment.

    Consumer checking accounts opened digitally
    over 40%
    Q4 FY24

    Reflects enhancements to the mobile app.

    Mobile active customers growth
    1.5 millionup 5% YoY
    2024

    Reflects increased digital engagement.

    Zelle transactions growth
    1 billionup 22% YoY
    2024

    Customers are increasingly using Zelle.

    Premier bankers increase
    8%
    YoY

    Part of efforts to better serve affluent clients.

    Branch-based financial advisers increase
    5%
    YoY

    Focus on increasing bankers and advisers in top locations.

    Net asset flows into Wealth and Investment Management Premier channel
    $23 billion
    2024

    Driven by enhanced customer relationship management capabilities and increased collaboration.

    Deposit and investment balances for Premier clients growth
    10%
    YoY

    Grew steadily throughout the year.

    Investment banking market share increase with commercial banking clients
    150 basis points
    2024

    Reflects targeted investment banking capabilities towards commercial banking clients.

    CIB new hires
    over 75
    Since 2019

    Many in key coverage product groups within trading and banking.

    Gross expense reductions from efficiency initiatives
    $2.4 billion
    2025

    Expected for 2025.

    Total gross expense saves from efficiency initiatives
    over $12 billion
    Over 4 years

    Achieved since focusing on efficiency initiatives.

    Incremental technology expense
    $900 million
    2025

    Expected increase in investments for infrastructure and business capabilities.

    Incremental other investments
    $900 million
    2025

    Expected increase in investments for various areas including risk and control infrastructure, digital platforms, core lending capabilities, and customer growth initiatives.

    Other expenses increase
    $800 million
    2025

    Expected increase including merit increases and performance-based discretionary compensation.

    Seasonally higher personnel expenses
    $650 million to $700 million
    Q1

    Expected for Q1.

    Operating losses
    $1.1 billionapproximately $700 million lower than 2024
    2025

    Expected for 2025.

    Severance expense reduction
    $500 million
    2025

    Expected reduction in 2025 given the expense accrual in Q4 2024.

    Wealth and Investment Management revenue-related expenses increase
    $600 million
    2025

    Expected increase in 2025, which is a positive as these are more than offset by higher noninterest income.

    Industry KPIs

    10
    MetricValueDetails
    Loans
    Deposits
    Rotce ROE13.4%%
    Cet1 ratio11.1%%
    Capital returns$4 billionUSD
    Fee income lines
    Allowance reserves$103 millionUSD
    Net interest income$11.75 billionUSD
    Net charge offs npls
    Total operating expenses$54.6 billionUSD

    Product announcements

    2
    ProductTypeDetails
    Co-branded auto financing for Volkswagen and Audilaunch
    Wells Fargo Premierlaunch

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    Centerbridge PartnersStrategic partnership to introduce Overland Advisors for direct lending product.

    Created a strategic partnership with Centerbridge Partners and introduced Overland Advisors to better service commercial banking customers with a direct lending product.

    Volkswagen and AudiMultiyear co-branded agreement to be the preferred purchase finance provider for auto brands.multiyear

    Wells Fargo will be the preferred purchase finance provider for Volkswagen and Audi brands in the United States starting in the first half of this year.

    UndisclosedAgreement to sell the non-agency third-party servicing segment of commercial mortgage servicing business.

    Entered into a definitive agreement last year to sell a segment of the commercial mortgage servicing business that was not in sync with strategic priorities.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Commercial real estate office portfolio weakness

    Commercial net loan charge-offs increased $80 million from Q3 to 30 basis points of average loans, driven by the commercial real estate office portfolio.

    Mitigation: Actively working with clients; allowance coverage for CIB and CRE office portfolio increased 12%.

    Cyber risk

    Discussed as the biggest risk currently.

    Mitigation: Significant investment in resources and technology to manage cyber risk.

    Geopolitical risks and market surprises

    Qualitative mention of potential 'bad things' related to conflict or market surprises.

    Mitigation: Prepared for them through general company operations and risk management.

    Asset cap

    Ongoing constraint on growth and capital deployment.

    Mitigation: Focus on organic growth opportunities and efficient capital return within current constraints.

    Remaining consent orders

    Unspecified number of remaining consent orders.

    Mitigation: Top priority to successfully complete the required work and embed an operational risk and compliance mindset.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Net Interest Income trajectory

    H1 2025, H2 2025
    CurrentRelatively stable in H1 2025
    TargetMore growth in H2 2025

    Why it matters

    NII is a primary driver of bank profitability, and its trajectory will indicate the impact of rate changes and balance sheet management.

    We expect net interest income will be relatively stable in the first half of 2025, which includes the impact from 2 fewer days in the first quarter with more growth in the second half of the year.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Seeking more detail on deposit growth, mix, and how it impacts paydown of higher-cost borrowings, and an update on credit card profitability as early vintages mature.

    Management expects continued stabilization of noninterest-bearing to interest-bearing mix, with absolute growth across the consumer franchise and no expected pricing pressure on the consumer side. Credit card profitability is still in early days, with earliest vintages maturing and expected to contribute more meaningfully to the P&L over the next year or two, with credit performance as expected.

    So we're just starting to kind of see those earliest vintages mature and become more profitable. So we're still early days in terms of seeing that profitability really come through in the P&L.

    asked by John McDonald · answered by Michael Santomassimo

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Risk and Control Progress and Consent Order Resolution

    Wells Fargo has made significant strides in its risk and control work, which remains a top priority. The OCC terminated a consent order regarding sales practices in early 2024, marking the sixth such order closed since 2019. Management emphasized that the operational risk and compliance infrastructure is greatly changed, providing confidence in the ability to grow while maintaining a tightly controlled framework.

    02

    Strategic Investments Driving Revenue Diversification

    The company has consciously diversified revenues to reduce reliance on net interest income, with fee-based revenue growing 15% year-over-year in 2024, largely offsetting the expected NII decline. Investments in areas like credit card, wealth management, and investment banking are beginning to yield results, contributing to an improving earnings profile and customer engagement.

    03

    Credit Card Business Momentum and Profitability Outlook

    The credit card platform is a key strategic objective, with 11 new cards rolled out since 2021 and over 2.4 million new accounts opened in 2024. Credit performance is consistent with expectations, and strong credit card spend increased by over $17 billion year-over-year. The earliest vintages of new products are starting to mature, with profitability expected to contribute more meaningfully to the P&L over the next year or two.

    04

    Home Lending Repositioning and Efficiency Initiatives

    Wells Fargo continues to reposition its home lending business, reducing headcount by 47% and the amount of third-party mortgage loans serviced by 28% since early 2023. This streamlining has made the business more profitable, with further opportunities for improvement. The company has also delivered over $12 billion in gross expense saves from efficiency initiatives over the past four years, with an additional $2.4 billion targeted for 2025.

    05

    Digital and Branch Enhancements Driving Customer Engagement

    Significant investments have been made in digital capabilities and branch infrastructure. In 2024, 730 branches were refurbished, and mobile app enhancements led to over 40% of consumer checking accounts being opened digitally in Q4. Mobile active customers grew by 1.5 million, and Zelle transactions surpassed 1 billion, demonstrating increased customer engagement across channels.

    06

    Wealth and Investment Management Growth and Commercial Banking Expansion

    The introduction of Wells Fargo Premier and increased Premier bankers (up 8%) and financial advisers (up 5%) contributed to $23 billion in net asset flows into the Premier channel and a 10% increase in deposit and investment balances for Premier clients. In Commercial Banking, the company is adding relationship managers and business development officers, and its investment banking market share with commercial clients increased by 150 basis points in 2024.

    07

    Investment Portfolio Repositioning and Capital Management

    The company executed a strategic repositioning of its investment portfolio, selling approximately $80 billion of securities and reinvesting into higher-yielding assets, with an estimated payback period of 2.5 years. Wells Fargo maintained a strong CET1 ratio of 11.1% and returned $25 billion of capital to shareholders in 2024, including $20 billion in share repurchases and a 15% increase in its common stock dividend.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.