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    WM
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    WASTE MANAGEMENT Q4 FY24 earnings call WM

    Jan 30, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Waste Management Q4 FY24 — Record Margins & Strong Sustainability Growth

    Waste Management delivered a strong Q4 FY24, marked by record operating EBITDA margins in its core collection and disposal business and significant progress on sustainability investments. The company successfully integrated the Stericycle acquisition, raising synergy targets, and is focused on operational efficiencies and strategic capital allocation to drive robust EBITDA and free cash flow growth in 2025, despite some commodity and tax credit headwinds.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved over 10% operating EBITDA growth in legacy business for FY24, reaching a 30% full-year operating EBITDA margin for the first time.

    • Collection and disposal business operating EBITDA grew 10.4% in FY24, achieving a record 37.2% margin for the year.

    • Cash flow from operations grew over 14% to $5.39 billion in FY24, and free cash flow before sustainability investments increased 22.5% to $3.27 billion.

    • Annualized driver turnover reached a record low of 15%, an improvement of over 300 basis points from 2023.

    • Successfully completed Stericycle acquisition, now expecting $250 million in synergies over three years, with up to $100 million in 2025.

    Concerns

    5
    • Anticipate a $63 million headwind in 2025 from the expiration of alternative fuel tax credits, impacting operating EBITDA margin by 30 basis points.

    • Industrial business volumes remain soft, with no expectation for a significant rebound in 2025.

    • Recycling commodity prices are assumed to be $85/ton for 2025, down from $92/ton in 2024, leading to some pressure in H1 2025.

    • Increased cash interest expense expected to be $350 million to $400 million higher in 2025, with $300 million related to the Stericycle acquisition.

    • Residential volume shedding is expected to continue at 3% to 3.5% through 2025 and 2026, impacting overall volume growth.

    Guidance & targets

    21
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Total Company Operating EBITDA Growth
    15%
    high materiality
    High
    Collection and Disposal Operating EBITDA Growth
    more than 7%
    high materiality
    High
    Sustainability Segments Incremental Operating EBITDA Contribution
    $150 million
    medium materiality
    High
    WM Healthcare Solutions Operating EBITDA Growth (pre-synergies)
    about 9%
    medium materiality
    High
    Stericycle Synergies
    up to $100 million
    high materiality
    High
    Collection and Disposal Core Price Increase
    5.8% to 6.2%
    medium materiality
    High
    Collection and Disposal Yield
    4% to 4.2%
    medium materiality
    High
    Collection and Disposal Volume Growth
    0.25% to 0.75%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Capital Expenditures
    $3.175 billion to $3.275 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Free Cash Flow
    $2.725 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Investment in Solid Waste Acquisitions
    $100 million to $200 million
    low materiality
    High
    Estimated Dividend Payments
    about $1.3 billion
    low materiality
    High
    Leverage Ratio
    approximately 3.1x
    high materiality
    High
    WM Healthcare Solutions Revenue Growth
    2.5% to 5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Residential Volume Shedding
    3% to 3.5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Stericycle SG&A as % of Revenue Target
    15% and beyond
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Incremental Spend on ERP Initiative (Stericycle)
    $35 million to $40 million
    low materiality
    High
    Cash Interest Expense Increase
    $350 million to $400 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Cash Tax Increase
    $75 million to $100 million
    low materiality
    High
    Wage Inflation
    4% to 5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Recycled Commodity Prices
    $85/ton
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Collection and Disposal
    Achieved highest ever operating EBITDA margin for the full year 2024. Growth exceeded original projections, with margins expanding 200 basis points. Delivered nearly $700 million in operating EBITDA growth.
    Yield: 4.5%Core Price: 6.7%Churn: ~9%
    10.4%37.2%
    Residential Line of Business
    Operating EBITDA margin grew more than 400 basis points for the full year 2024. Driven by route automation and shedding lower-margin business. Reduced labor dependency and enhanced safety.
    Operating EBITDA margin growth: >400 bps
    approaching 20%
    WM Healthcare Solutions
    Expected revenue and EBITDA for FY25, including synergies. WM's definition of EBITDA differs from Stericycle's historical reporting. The 2024 pro forma EBITDA (WM definition, excluding synergies) was around $350 million.
    $2.6 billion$460 million

    Operational metrics

    39
    Operating EBITDA Growth (Legacy Business)
    >10%YoY
    FY24

    Driven by focus on top line growth and cost discipline.

    Full Year Operating EBITDA Margin
    30%
    FY24

    Achieved for the first time in company history.

    Operating Expenses as % of Revenue
    60.3%
    Q4 FY24

    Fifth consecutive quarter below 61%.

    Operating Expenses as % of Revenue
    60.7%down 100 bps from 2023
    FY24

    First time below 61% for full year, improved 100 basis points from 2023.

    Labor Costs as % of Revenue
    declined 60 bpsYoY
    FY24

    Compared to 2023, notable despite dilutive impacts from acquisitions.

    Collection and Disposal Operating EBITDA Growth
    $700 million
    FY24

    Delivered in operating EBITDA growth.

    Operating EBITDA Margin Improvement (Collection and Disposal)
    200 bps
    FY24

    Driven by price, cost optimization, and shedding low-margin residential business.

    Operating EBITDA Margin Improvement from Price/Cost/Mix (Collection and Disposal)
    about 180 bps
    FY24

    From benefits of price, cost optimization, and intentional shedding of low-margin residential business.

    Operating EBITDA Margin Improvement from Lower Fuel Costs (Collection and Disposal)
    remaining improvement
    FY24

    The remaining improvement in collection and disposal margin was from lower fuel costs.

    Operating EBITDA Margin Headwind from Commodity Pricing
    about 30 bps
    FY24

    From higher commodity pricing in recycling brokerage business.

    Operating EBITDA Margin Headwind from Incentive Compensation
    about 30 bps
    FY24

    From increased incentive compensation costs.

    Operating EBITDA Margin Headwind from Employee Health & Welfare
    about 30 bps
    FY24

    From higher employee health and welfare costs.

    Operating EBITDA Margin Headwind from Stericycle Addition
    about 30 bps
    FY24

    From the addition of Stericycle.

    SG&A as % of Revenue
    9.6%
    FY24

    Includes a 30 basis point headwind from WM Healthcare Solutions.

    SG&A as % of Revenue Improvement (Legacy Business)
    10 bpsYoY
    FY24

    Compared to 2023, largely through discipline in discretionary spending and targeted optimization of customer engagement costs.

    Capital Returned to Shareholders
    $1.47 billion
    FY24

    Includes over $1.2 billion in dividends.

    Investment in Tech and Acquisitions (Traditional Solid Waste & Recycling)
    about $800 million
    FY24

    To expand traditional solid waste and recycling footprint.

    Sustainability Growth Initiatives Investment
    $950 million
    FY24

    Funding for sustainability growth initiatives.

    Investment Tax Credit (ITC) Benefit
    $220 million
    FY25

    Anticipated benefit included in free cash flow outlook.

    Investment Tax Credit (ITC) Benefit
    $135 million
    FY24

    Captured in 2024. Combined with 2025 expected benefit, exceeds previous range of $250M-$350M.

    Alternative Fuel Tax Credit Headwind
    $63 million
    FY25

    Headwind from expiration of alternative fuel tax credits.

    Stericycle EBITDA (WM Definition, ex-synergies)
    $350 million
    FY24

    Implied full-year EBITDA number on a WM measured basis, excluding synergy capture.

    Stericycle EBITDA (WM Definition, incl. synergies)
    $460 million
    FY25

    Projected EBITDA for FY25, including $85 million to $90 million of synergy capture.

    Stericycle Synergies (Total)
    $250 milliondoubled from $125 million
    3-year period

    Total expected synergies over a 3-year period, doubled from initial $125 million estimate.

    Stericycle Synergies (FY24 Q4 Realized)
    $4 million
    Q4 FY24

    Realized synergies in the fourth quarter.

    Stericycle Synergies (FY25 Midpoint)
    $85 million to $90 million
    FY25

    Midpoint assumption for synergy realization in 2025.

    Driver Turnover
    15%improved >300 bps from 2023
    as of Dec

    Lowest ever annualized driver turnover.

    Residential Routes Automated
    over 500
    since 2022

    Part of residential optimization effort.

    Residential Routes Exited
    additional 400
    since 2022

    Where conversion was not an option or profit margins were challenged.

    MSW Volumes Growth
    4.4%annual increase
    FY24

    Demonstrates value of expanding network and logistical capabilities, with acceleration in H2.

    Residential Customers with Zero or Less EBIT Margin
    25%
    current

    Indicates ongoing opportunity for residential business cleanup.

    Positions Not Replaced
    about 2,500
    through end of last year

    Across different functional areas, contributing to cost savings.

    Future Positions Not Replaced
    another 1,000
    future

    Expected from recycling facility upgrades and conversions.

    RNG Plants Completed Construction
    all but 2
    by end of 2025

    The remaining 2 will be completed in early H1 2026.

    RNG Plants Eligible for ITC
    all 20
    future

    Excluding those in Canada, all 20 projects are expected to be eligible for ITC.

    Projected RIN Sales Locked Up
    about 50%
    FY25

    Includes preselling some 2025 RINs at $2.70.

    Future Years RINs Locked In
    about 15%
    future years

    Part of a proactive approach to manage RIN price volatility.

    Recycling Automation Roles Eliminated
    over 850
    through 2024

    Benefit from automation facilities, independent of commodity prices.

    Solid Waste Internalization Rate
    >70%
    Q4 FY24

    Exceeded 70% in Q4, driven by network value and logistical capabilities.

    Industry KPIs

    8
    MetricValueDetails
    Yield4.5%%
    Volume0.25% to 0.75%%
    Core price6.7%%
    EBITDA margin30%%
    Churn retentionabout 9%%
    Safety turnover15%%
    Price to cost spreadpositive
    Recycling commodity impact$85$/ton

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    StericycleAcquisition of leading medical waste management and secure information destruction businesses.

    Acquisition successfully completed in November 2024. Integration efforts are underway, with commercial operations, support, and back-office functions integrated into WM structures. Synergy estimates doubled from initial $125 million.

    Capital programs

    2
    Renewable Natural Gas Facilitiesunderway

    Benefit: 5 facilities online in 2024, 8 plants online in 2025

    5 facilities brought online in 2024. 8 plants expected to come online in 2025. All but 2 of the 20 planned plants will be constructed by end of 2025, with the remaining 2 in early H1 2026.

    Recycling Facility Automation Upgradesunderway

    Benefit: improved throughput and lowered operating costs

    Advanced automation upgrades at 10 recycling facilities in 2024, improving throughput and lowering operating costs. Added recycling facilities in 2 new markets.

    Risks & headwinds

    8
    Expiration of Alternative Fuel Tax CreditsFY25

    $63 million headwind

    Mitigation: Disciplined focus on pricing and cost management to maintain healthy margins.

    Softness in Industrial Business VolumesFY25

    soft

    Mitigation: Rolling out disciplined growth programs to enhance volume capture at appropriate pricing levels.

    Higher Commodity Pricing in Recycling Brokerage BusinessFY24

    about 30 bps EBITDA margin impact

    Mitigation: Offset by automation benefits and a fee-for-service model that creates a floor when commodity prices decline.

    Increased Incentive Compensation CostsFY24

    about 30 bps EBITDA margin impact

    Higher Employee Health and Welfare CostsFY24

    about 30 bps EBITDA margin impact

    Impact of Stericycle Acquisition on MarginFY24

    about 30 bps EBITDA margin impact

    Mitigation: Integration efforts focused on synergy capture and operational efficiencies.

    Increased Cash Interest ExpenseFY25

    $350 million to $400 million higher

    Mitigation: Deleveraging balance sheet through earnings growth and debt reduction; pausing share buybacks.

    Recycling Commodity Price VolatilityFY25

    FY25 assumption $85/ton (down from $92/ton in FY24)

    Mitigation: 50% of 2025 projected RIN sales locked up; proactive approach to manage RINs; automation benefits and fee-for-service model provide resilience.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Stericycle Synergy Realization

    next quarter
    Current$4 million (Q4 FY24)
    TargetProgress towards $85M-$90M (FY25 midpoint)

    Why it matters

    Synergy capture is a key driver of WM Healthcare Solutions' profitability and overall company growth, especially given the increased target.

    Our midpoint assumes $85 million to $90 million of realization.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Clarification on the $460 million incremental EBITDA for Stericycle, whether it includes synergies, and if there was a definitional change in EBITDA calculation compared to Stericycle's prior reporting.

    Confirmed a definitional change in EBITDA, with WM using a more conventional approach. The $460 million for 2025 includes $85 million to $90 million of realized synergies, starting from a recast 2024 run rate of $350 million (excluding synergies).

    Yes, there was a definitional change in EBITDA between the 2 companies. We have, I would say, I guess, a more conventional approach to what we adjust out of earnings. And we found that they adjusted things that look more like normal course of business costs.

    asked by Patrick Brown · answered by Devina Rankin

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Operational Excellence and Cost Discipline

    WM achieved a full-year operating expense as a percentage of revenue of 60.7% in 2024, the first time below 61% and a 100 basis point improvement from 2023. This was driven by strong execution, automation, and technology adoption. Labor costs as a percentage of revenue declined by 60 basis points year-over-year, despite acquisition impacts. Annualized driver turnover reached a record low of 15%, improving over 300 basis points from 2023. Repair and maintenance costs also declined as a percentage of revenue due to increased truck deliveries, fleet optimization, and streamlined maintenance.

    02

    Sustainability Growth Investments

    In 2024, WM brought 5 renewable natural gas (RNG) facilities online and advanced automation upgrades at 10 recycling facilities, adding recycling facilities in 2 new markets. These investments are expected to contribute operating EBITDA approaching $800 million in 2027. The company is confident in the demand for RNG and the overall investment thesis for these assets. All but 2 of the 20 planned RNG plants will have completed construction by the end of 2025, with the remaining 2 in early H1 2026.

    03

    Stericycle Acquisition and Integration

    The successful completion of the Stericycle acquisition in November 2024 broadens WM's solutions in medical waste management and secure information destruction. Integration efforts are underway, with commercial operations, support, and back-office functions integrated within three months. Synergy estimates have been doubled to $250 million over three years, with up to $100 million expected in 2025. The synergy capture is primarily from internalization, SG&A, and OpEx, with significant opportunities in optimizing sales coverage and consolidating recycling capacity. The WM Healthcare Solutions business is expected to grow about 9% in EBITDA before synergies in 2025.

    04

    Residential Business Optimization

    WM's residential line of business saw its operating EBITDA margin grow over 400 basis points, approaching 20% for the full year 2024. This improvement was driven by automating over 500 residential routes and exiting an additional 400 lower-margin routes since 2022. The company continues to shed unprofitable residential business, with 25% of residential customers still having an EBIT margin of zero or less, indicating further opportunity for optimization.

    05

    Capital Allocation and Deleveraging

    In 2024, WM returned $1.47 billion to shareholders, including over $1.2 billion in dividends. The company invested about $800 million in tech and acquisitions for traditional solid waste and recycling, and $950 million in sustainability growth initiatives. For 2025, capital expenditures are targeted at $3.175 billion to $3.275 billion, including $625 million for sustainability and $225 million for WM Healthcare Solutions. Share buybacks have been paused to focus on deleveraging, with a target leverage ratio of approximately 3.1x by the end of 2025, down from 3.5-3.6% in 2024.

    06

    ERP Challenges and Opportunities in WM Healthcare Solutions

    The WM Healthcare Solutions business is undergoing an ERP transition. WM's team is focused on integrating technology with change management and operational connectivity, which was previously lacking. An incremental spend of $35 million to $40 million is expected for this initiative in 2025. The ERP implementation is also expected to drive significant cash improvement, potentially up to $150 million, through DSO improvement, primarily in early 2026.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.