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Williams Companies (WMB) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Energy· May 5, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

The Williams Companies Q1 FY26 — Record $2.25B adjusted EBITDA and fifth data-center power project (682 MW NEO)

Data-center power demand is converting into contracted midstream growth faster than planned: another record quarter, new behind-the-meter and pipeline projects spanning Idaho to New York City, and an improving build-cost curve on the power platform. The trade-off is a temporarily stretched balance sheet; management is counting on partner financing and the coming earnings ramp to restore leverage without slowing its commercial win rate.

Highlights

5
  • Record Q1 adjusted EBITDA of $2.25B, up 13% YoY from $1.99B, with adjusted EPS up 22%

  • NEO announced — fifth and largest behind-the-meter power innovation project: 682 MW installed capacity, ~$2.3B investment, 12.5-year hyperscaler contract, in service 2H 2028

  • Now pointing to the upper half of full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance on strong Q1 visibility

  • Contracted book now supports ~9% base EBITDA CAGR (up from ~8% at the February Analyst Day) toward the 10%+ 2025-2030 target

  • Execution milestones: Naughton project placed in service, NESE and SESE construction kicked off, all Socrates South turbines set on foundations, Arista pipeline phase 1 complete, and ~700 MMcf/d of G&P expansions sanctioned in Q1

Concerns

5
  • Leverage expected to run at ~4.1x in 2026, above the 3.5-4.0x target range, as growth capex midpoint rises to $7.3B for a fifth power project — financing plan not yet finalized (expected within a couple of months)

  • Northeast G&P grew just 2% (+$10M) as volume declines in certain dry gas areas offset rich-gas growth

  • Haynesville producer customers described as cautious on drilling amid weak near-term natural gas prices

  • Constitution pipeline remains gated on aggregating customer commitments across a fragmented New England/New York market

  • Other segment adjusted EBITDA down ~$20M YoY following the January 2026 upstream Haynesville divestiture

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA
Upper half of original full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance range
high materiality
High
2026 growth capital expenditure (midpoint)
$7.3 billion growth capex midpoint
high materiality
High
2026 leverage
~4.1x — modestly above target range
high materiality
High
Leverage return to target range
Return to the 3.5-4.0x target range over time, with natural deleveraging as projects come online in 2027-2028
medium materiality
High
Dividend growth
Continued dividend growth — commitment stays intact
medium materiality
High
Long-term adjusted EBITDA and EPS CAGR (2025-2030)
10%+ CAGR for both EBITDA and EPS
high materiality
High
Contracted-book base EBITDA growth CAGR (2025-2030)
~9% base CAGR from currently contracted business — described as 'still a pretty conservative look'
high materiality
High
Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA (seasonality)
Seasonally lower EBITDA in Q2 before sequential growth resumes through the second half of 2026
medium materiality
High
Financing plan announcement
Firm up financing plans within the next couple of months
medium materiality
High
Summer 2026 power demand (market commentary)
'Pretty robust' power demand expected this summer
low materiality
Medium
Rockies Columbia Connector phase 2 commercialization
Progress on the second phase (Washington/Oregon markets) hoped for this year
low materiality
Low
Natural gas storage project commercializations
Commercialization announcements expected in upcoming quarters (Gulf Coast and Mountain West storage projects)
low materiality
Low

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Transmission & Gulf (transcript: 'transmission and Golf' — ASR for Gulf)
Growth across every business in the segment. Transco was driven by higher tariff rates following last year's rate case settlement plus the effects of numerous expansion projects; deepwater reflected the combined effects of recent Gulf expansion projects.
Transco adjusted EBITDA growth: ~10% YoYDeepwater businesses adjusted EBITDA growth: >60% YoYNatural gas storage adjusted EBITDA growth: +35% YoY
—+~17% adjusted EBITDA (up nearly $150M YoY)——
Northeast G&P
Strong growth in rich gas areas was offset by volume declines in certain dry gas areas.
—+2% (+$10M) adjusted EBITDA——
West
Led by Haynesville investments, including a full quarter of the Louisiana Energy Gateway pipeline in service.
Louisiana Energy Gateway: first full quarter of service
—+~16% (+$56M) adjusted EBITDA——
Sequent (gas & power marketing)
Another strong start to the year for the marketing business. The Cogentrix investment is expected to be divested later this year (details in deals_partnerships).
Cogentrix contribution to the YoY increase: ~$15M (investment acquired March 2025)
—+$72M adjusted EBITDA YoY—$227M adjusted EBITDA in Q1
Other (including upstream)
Decline primarily reflects the divestiture of the upstream Haynesville assets, which closed in January 2026; the associated book gain is excluded from all recurring financial metrics (amount in deals_partnerships).
—Down ~$20M adjusted EBITDA YoY——

Orderbook & backlog

Power innovation opportunity backlog ~6 GW (order of magnitude) Q1 FY26 call, referencing the February Analyst Day figure

Described as 'as robust if not more so' than at Analyst Day, even after commercializing NEO

Management cautioned against precision on the figure; projects will layer in over the next several years, paced against execution capacity, secured equipment/supply chain, and balance-sheet discipline, with the team actively high-grading the backlog toward projects where Williams has competitive advantage.

Deals & partnerships

Undisclosed hyperscaler (confidential) Customer contract — behind-the-meter power supply (NEO power innovation project) 12.5 years

Fifth power innovation project and the largest announced to date; counterparty to be disclosed when confidentiality allows. Permits to be filed later in 2026. Project anatomy (capacity, investment, in-service timing) in capital_programs; management noted ongoing discussions across the pipeline for even longer 15-20 year terms.

Undisclosed large investment-grade data-center customer (Northeast) Customer contract — gas infrastructure agreement for backup power (Atlas) 13 years

Provides pipeline capacity to convert the customer's backup generation from diesel to natural gas, using the compressibility of gas in the Transco system as effective storage; modest capex (anatomy in capital_programs) but strategically important as a replicable solution for existing data centers.

Cogentrix Planned divestiture of investment (acquired March 2025)

The Cogentrix investment currently contributes within the Sequent marketing segment (its Q1 contribution is captured in segment_performance); management flagged the planned exit as a reminder alongside Q1 results.

Undisclosed buyer — upstream Haynesville assets Divestiture — upstream Haynesville E&P assets

Sale of Williams' upstream Haynesville position; consistent with the strategy of exiting upstream exposure while expanding Haynesville gathering infrastructure ahead of the LNG demand ramp.

Woodside LNG partnership — pipeline connection (Line 200) and LNG offtake option 1.5 MTPA offtake option (option, not obligation)

Williams has taken over as primary owner of Line 200, which will connect Transco and the Louisiana Energy Gateway system as the primary source of gas delivery into the Woodside LNG terminal. Williams is talking to producers about using the 1.5 MTPA option to attract more volume through its Haynesville system, completing the wellhead-to-water strategy (transcript garble: 'well had the water').

Capital programs

NEO (power innovation project #5) announced/commercialized ~$2.3B
Funding: Under evaluation — options include project-level equity partners (robust interest cited); included in the raised 2026 growth capex
Start: Commercialized Q1 FY26; permits to be filed later in 2026

Benefit:682 MW of installed behind-the-meter power capacity

Largest power project Williams has announced to date, for a confidential hyperscaler under a long-term contract (contract terms in deals_partnerships); its addition drove the increase in 2026 growth capex guidance and the temporary leverage excursion.

Atlas (gas infrastructure for data-center backup power) announced Slightly under $50M
Start: Announced Q1 FY26

Benefit:Up to 164 MMcf/d of pipeline capacity — lateral interconnection facilities with redundancy off Transco, replacing diesel backup generation at an existing Northeast data center

Framed as proof-of-concept for using pipeline compressibility as gas storage/backup in lieu of on-site diesel or CNG/LNG — a lower-emission solution management expects to replicate at other facilities.

Silver Spur (Northwest Pipeline expansion — Rockies Columbia Connector phase 1) announced/commercialized
Start: Commercialized Q1 FY26, following last year's open seasons

Benefit:275 MMcf/d of added natural gas pipeline capacity via new compression plus a 90-mile transmission pipeline into the Idaho market

One of the first major pipeline infrastructure expansions in the Pacific Northwest in over two decades; phase-2 discussions ongoing with Washington and Oregon customers.

Transco Power Express (upsized) upsized — a new customer added and an existing commitment upsized

Benefit:Increased to 750 MMcf/d of new capacity (transcript: 'new race capacity' — ASR) serving data-center-driven market growth in Virginia

Scope was flexed to meet firmed-up customer needs without impacting overall project timing — cited as demonstrating the Transco system's ability to scale expansion projects.

Socrates (Ohio power innovation project) underway — commissioning first phase

Benefit:All turbines at the South location now placed on foundations (transcript: 'Socrates Platos South location' — ASR garble)

Management expects commissioning learnings to prove up redundancy and unlock more efficient operating modes and additional capacity; an analyst cited ~50% redundant capacity in the design, which management neither confirmed nor corrected.

Arista pipeline (Ohio) nearing completion — commissioning

Benefit:Deliberately overbuilt capacity to serve as a natural-gas energy artery for the Columbus/New Albany data-center corridor, serving Socrates and other Ohio power innovation projects

Also rendered 'ARISTADA' by the transcript (ASR). Prepared to deliver gas for the Socrates startup (transcript garble: 'deliver gas for platelets out').

Northeast Supply Enhancement (NESE) underway — construction
Start: Construction kicked off in Q1 FY26

Benefit:First new gas pipeline into New York City

Groundbreaking celebrated with the Interior Secretary, Energy Secretary, EPA Administrator and FERC Chairman; described as a project 'many thought impossible' and, unlike Constitution, anchored by effectively a single customer and single state.

Southeast Supply Enhancement (SESE) underway — construction
Start: Construction kicked off in Q1 FY26

Large-scale Transco pipeline expansion moved into the construction phase; cited among the key transmission projects where execution is going well.

Naughton project (coal-to-gas conversion) completed — in service

Benefit:Helps the customer transition from coal to cleaner-burning natural gas while maintaining affordability and grid reliability

Transcript reads 'the Naughton Coal project' (ASR); described as a critical milestone of the quarter.

Risks & headwinds

Leverage temporarily above target range during the power-project buildout Primarily 2026-2027, before expected deleveraging from earnings growth in 2027-2028

2026 leverage expected at ~4.1x versus the 3.5-4.0x internal target range, driven by execution on five fast-cycle power innovation projects and the raised growth capex

Mitigation:Multiple financing options preserved — project-level equity partners (robust interest from terrific counterparties), potential asset sales over time; financing plans to be firmed up within a couple of months; target described as an internal Board-set range with breathing room versus ratings thresholds

Permitting and litigation delays on infrastructure projects Ongoing; hopes for Senate permitting-reform action this year

Atlantic Sunrise spent 13 years in litigation despite Williams winning every lawsuit; delays increase costs ultimately borne by consumers

Mitigation:Advocacy for folding state 401 water certification into the federal permitting process and for judicial reform; supportive House bill provisions and Senator McCormick's Senate bill cited as momentum

Constitution pipeline commercialization stalled Open-ended

Not quantified — no single New England/New York state or customer is large enough to anchor the project

Mitigation:FERC application on file and expected to succeed; active utility discussions post winter storm Fern; the remaining gating item is coalescing sufficient customer commitments across a fragmented market

Haynesville producer caution amid weak near-term gas prices Near term, ahead of the demand ramp expected over the next year or two

Not quantified by management; a majority of producer customers described as cautious near term, with Henry Hub 'comfortably below' economic levels per the analyst's framing (analyst-origin)

Mitigation:Strong fundamentals cited — Haynesville rig counts up, DUCs building, gas curve in contango; Williams sanctioning gathering expansions ahead of the LNG-driven demand pull

Dry-gas volume declines in the Northeast Q1 FY26

Volume declines in certain dry gas areas offset strong rich-gas growth, holding Northeast G&P segment growth to low single digits in Q1

Mitigation:Continued growth in rich gas areas; new demand tie-backs into the region expected to create additional gathering and processing opportunities

Shifting data-center power landscape — NIMBYism, bring-your-own-power trend, and new competitive entrants Ongoing

Not quantified

Mitigation:Full value-chain positioning (gathering, transmission, Sequent virtual footprint); flexibility across behind-the-meter, bring-your-own-power, hybrid/grid-complementary models, battery storage, and potential steam-turbine/CCGT scale-ups

Q&A highlights

How has hyperscaler appetite evolved versus before, and how will deal formation proceed after the large NEO deal?

Interest remains very strong; the backlog is as robust or more so than at Analyst Day, project cost and efficiency keep improving, and the cadence of projects should layer in over the next several years. A combination of behind-the-meter, hybrid and grid-complementary solutions will be required long-term without compromising the grid or consumer affordability.

“The backlog, I'd say, is remains as robust if not more so than we discussed at Analyst Day.”

asked by Jeremy Tonet (JPMorgan) · answered by Chad Zamarin

4 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Power innovation platform: five projects and an improving cost curve

Management framed the behind-the-meter power program — only about a year old — as moving down an efficiency curve comparable to upstream shale learning curves, with lessons from Socrates and the follow-on Apollo project applied to each successive build; Chad Zamarin noted analysts 'doing the math' on NEO will see cost and efficiency continuing to improve.

Commissioning of Socrates' first phase is expected to prove out built-in redundancy and unlock more efficient operating modes and additional capacity. Battery systems in these projects act primarily as a millisecond-scale buffer between rotating equipment and dynamic AI loads rather than long-duration backup.

Williams is willing to extend beyond behind-the-meter into bring-your-own-power, hybrid and grid-complementary configurations — and over time larger units with steam turbines — positioning as an infrastructure-solutions provider rather than a single-model developer. A sizable power-generation fleet comes online over the next couple of years, which Williams intends to optimize for customers while explicitly not building a speculative power-trading business.

Financing the capex wave

John Porter characterized the leverage excursion as purely a timing dynamic ahead of a 2028 earnings step-up that resets the company's leverage capacity. The preferred path is project-level equity partners in the power innovation portfolio — structures described as allowing capital recycling while Williams retains strategic and operational roles, with some partners potentially even expanding the opportunity set.

He emphasized optionality: asset sales across the portfolio are possible over time, and recent healthy private-market marks on gas pipeline assets were acknowledged when an analyst raised monetization, though partnering on the power projects is the main focus. The treasury team's stated objective is to stay ahead of the commercial teams so financing never constrains the ability to win new business.

Permitting reform and the NESE groundbreaking

Chad Zamarin described the NESE groundbreaking — attended by the Interior Secretary, Energy Secretary, EPA Administrator and the FERC Chairman — as proof that projects many thought impossible can proceed, and highlighted the union jobs and communities the project supports.

Williams' two reform priorities are folding the state 401 water-certification process into the federal permitting framework and judicial reform to curb serial litigation, citing Atlantic Sunrise's long litigation history despite winning every lawsuit. Management is hopeful for Senate action this year, pointing to the House bill's provisions and Senator McCormick's (Pennsylvania) newly released bill as building blocks, and noted Oklahoma's strong congressional delegation.

Northwest, Rockies, Utah and storage expansion

Silver Spur emerged from last year's Rockies Columbia Connector open seasons, with Idaho — cited as the second fastest-growing state by population but lacking infrastructure — the mature first market; phase-2 discussions continue with Washington and Oregon customers. Storage interest is strong on Gulf Coast winter-storm volatility: Pine Prairie is progressing through permitting, an expansion of older facilities is being commercialized, and Mountain West projects are being worked.

In Utah, Williams is building the pipeline that will serve the Aquila project in a corridor growing both demographically and in technology/data-center load.

Haynesville and natural gas fundamentals

Producer customers in the Haynesville were described as cautious near-term on pricing but positioning for the LNG-driven demand ramp, with Williams sanctioning gathering expansions ahead of the pull; management called the Haynesville the most responsive U.S. gas basin for meeting ramping LNG demand.

Chad Zamarin argued the U.S. produces roughly 40% more natural gas than it consumes domestically (versus only about 3% more for liquids), crediting that overproduction for insulating domestic gas prices from geopolitical shocks — gas trades lower than before the Middle East conflict began, while oil and liquid fuels have seen larger price shocks.

Northeast market failure and Constitution

New England and New York grew gas demand by 50% over the last decade while adding no new pipeline infrastructure, leaving them with among the highest utility prices in the country for much of the year; the region holds roughly 20% of the U.S. population but is expected to capture less than 2% of economic development over the next year.

Winter storm Fern underscored the market's fragility and has utilities engaging on both interstate capacity and their own system robustness. Constitution's challenge is structural: unlike NESE's effectively single-customer, single-state anchor, no individual New England state is large enough to underwrite the project, so Williams must coalesce commitments across fragmented constituencies — the last gating item — while the FERC application it has on file advances.

LNG and the Sequent 'virtual footprint'

The Woodside LNG connection is in execution mode, and management framed it as completing a wellhead-to-water strategy (the transcript garbles this as 'well had the water'). Rob Wingo highlighted Sequent's virtual footprint — capacity positions on every major pipeline in the country — which lets Williams pursue data-center projects beyond its physical systems; Slide 17 of the earnings materials maps coverage of essentially every U.S. data-center hub.

The Arista pipeline was deliberately overbuilt as a natural-gas energy artery for the Columbus/New Albany data-center corridor so additional projects can be developed along it — a template management expects to repeat. Management also cautioned there will be winners and losers regionally, with under-piped markets struggling to attract projects even where demand exists.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.