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    XEL
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    XCEL ENERGY INC XEL

    Apr 24, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Xcel Energy Q1 FY25 — Strong Start, Demand Growth, and Wildfire Mitigation Progress

    Xcel Energy reported a solid start to FY25, reaffirming its full-year EPS guidance, driven by robust electric sales growth and significant infrastructure investments. The company is actively managing unprecedented electric demand growth from data centers and electrification, while navigating federal policy shifts and tariff impacts. Progress on wildfire mitigation plans and constructive regulatory settlements underscore its commitment to risk reduction and customer affordability.

    Highlights

    5
    • Delivered Q1 FY25 earnings of $0.84 per share, reaffirming full-year guidance of $3.75 to $3.85 per share.

    • Invested $2.3 billion in resilient and reliable energy infrastructure during Q1 FY25.

    • Achieved 2% weather and leap year adjusted electric sales growth in Q1 FY25, driven by growth across most operating companies and customer segments.

    • Reached constructive settlements on the $1.9 billion Colorado wildfire mitigation plan and the $500 million Texas system resiliency plan.

    • Customers saved over $5 billion in avoided fuel costs and PTCs from wind generation since 2018, with an additional $250 million benefit from nuclear PTCs this year.

    Concerns

    4
    • Q1 FY25 earnings of $0.84 per share were down from $0.88 per share in Q1 FY24 due to higher O&M, depreciation, and interest expenses.

    • Estimated total tariff exposure on the $45 billion base capital plan for 2025-2029 is approximately 2% to 3%.

    • Estimated liability for Smokehouse Creek wildfire claims increased to $290 million (from a prior lower estimate), though still below $500 million insurance coverage.

    • Marshall Fire litigation continues with new causation theories introduced by plaintiffs, including an "unidentified flying object" theory, with trial set for late September.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EPS
    $3.75 to $3.85
    high materiality
    High
    O&M expenses increase
    3%
    medium materiality
    High
    Weather adjusted electric sales growth
    3%
    medium materiality
    High
    New generation capacity needed
    15,000 to 29,000 MW
    high materiality
    Medium
    Incremental investment pipeline
    $10+ billion
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    13
    Adjusted EPS
    $0.84down from $0.88 in Q1 FY24
    Q1 FY25

    Earnings drivers for the quarter.

    O&M expenses
    $686 million$81 million higher than 2024
    Q1 FY25

    O&M expenses were front-loaded in Q1.

    Weather and leap year adjusted electric sales growth
    2%YoY
    Q1 FY25

    Strong sales growth in the first quarter.

    Tariff exposure on capital plan
    2% to 3%
    2025-2029

    Estimated tariff impact on the base capital plan before vendor mitigation.

    Customer savings from wind PTCs
    $5 billion
    since 2018

    Savings from avoided fuel costs and production tax credits.

    Customer benefit from nuclear PTCs
    $250 million
    this year

    Additional benefit on customer bills from nuclear production tax credits.

    Wisconsin electric rate case revenue increase request
    $151 million
    2026-2027

    Filed 2026-2027 electric rate case in Wisconsin.

    Wisconsin natural gas rate case revenue increase request
    $24 million
    2026-2027

    Filed 2026-2027 natural gas rate case in Wisconsin.

    Smokehouse Creek wildfire claims resolved
    151out of 225 submitted
    Q1 FY25

    Progress on resolving claims.

    Smokehouse Creek wildfire settlement agreements committed
    $113 million
    Q1 FY25

    Total committed and paid for settlements.

    Smokehouse Creek wildfire estimated liability
    $290 millionupdated low end
    current

    Updated low end of estimated liability, remains well below insurance.

    Marshall Fire lawsuits filed
    25
    current

    Number of lawsuits filed and resolved.

    Colorado projected sales growth
    3% to 7%
    per year

    Projected sales growth in Colorado, driving new generation needs.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    Retail sales growth2%%
    New gas generation builds upgrades720MW

    Capital programs

    3
    Base Capital Planunderway$45 billion
    Start: 2025

    The company's core capital investment plan for the next five years.

    Colorado Wildfire Mitigation Plansettled$1.9 billion
    Funding: securitization mechanism for $1.2 billion by 2029

    Benefit: improved resiliency and reduced risk

    Constructive settlement reached, includes $1.6 billion capital and $300 million O&M over 3 years.

    Texas System Resiliency Plansettled$500 million

    Benefit: improved resiliency and reduced risk

    Constructive settlement reached, awaiting commission decision.

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    Higher O&M expensesQ1 FY25

    $0.11 per share decrease in Q1 FY25 earnings

    Mitigation: O&M expenses are front-loaded, in line with year-to-date budget; full year guidance of 3% increase reaffirmed.

    Higher depreciation and amortizationQ1 FY25

    $0.09 per share decrease in Q1 FY25 earnings

    Mitigation: Reflects capital investment programs, expected.

    Higher interest expenseQ1 FY25

    $0.06 per share decrease in Q1 FY25 earnings

    Mitigation: Expected impact.

    Tariff exposure on capital plan2025-2029

    2% to 3% of $45 billion base capital plan (2025-2029)

    Mitigation: Modest and manageable; diversifying supply base (e.g., 9 substation transformer suppliers); expected rapid evolution of battery supply chain.

    Smokehouse Creek wildfire liabilityOngoing

    Estimated liability updated to $290 million

    Mitigation: Well below $500 million insurance coverage; 151 of 225 claims resolved; 5 of 25 lawsuits settled/dismissed.

    Marshall Fire litigationTrial in late September

    New causation theories introduced by plaintiffs (e.g., unidentified flying object)

    Mitigation: Diligently preparing for trial; strong indemnity agreements on pole attachments.

    Potential changes to tax credit transferabilityLonger term (post-2028 for current proposals)

    Could impact cash flow and require equity issuance if transferability removed for all projects

    Mitigation: Management believes transferability is linked to credits and will continue; alternative flowback mechanisms (e.g., 30-year) could significantly reduce equity impact; strong balance sheet provides flexibility.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    Texas and New Mexico RFP recommended filing

    Q2
    CurrentEvaluating proposals for 5,000 to 10,000 MW
    TargetRecommended filing made

    Why it matters

    This filing will provide clarity on new generation resources to meet growing demand in these territories, impacting future capital plans and rate base.

    In Texas and New Mexico, our teams continue to evaluate proposals for generation to meet growing demand. As a reminder, we're seeking 5,000 to 10,000 megawatts through a competitive RFP process, including projects being proposed by the company. We're encouraged by the early results and plan to make a recommended filing in Q2.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    What would be the impact on cash flow and equity if tax credit transferability were to be sunsetted sooner, and how would the company manage such an outcome?

    Management believes transferability is explicitly linked to the credit program and will continue. If it were to change, it would primarily impact projects from 2029 onwards. An alternative flowback mechanism (e.g., over 30 years) could significantly reduce equity impact and manage tax inefficiency, improving near-term cash flow and customer bill stability. The company maintains a strong balance sheet to manage such timing issues.

    But longer term, it just becomes a timing issue where you're pushing those cash flows out in the future. Well, there's also alternative ways you could look at tax equity in the regulated environment. But one of the more interesting concepts and we do this in one of our jurisdictions is you can flow PGCs back in an alternative method and everyone thinks about PGCs being flowed back over the 10-year period as they're generated. In one of our jurisdictions, we've flown back over the life of the project. So pick a wind farm 30 years, flowing back over 30 years, that improves your cash flow in the near term reduces attacks and efficiency and also provides a pretty stable, call it, customer profile from bill impacts.

    asked by Nicholas Campanella · answered by Brian Van Abel

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Unprecedented Electric Demand Growth and Resource Planning

    Xcel Energy is experiencing unprecedented🌐 electric demand growth driven by the oil and gas sector, residential customer growth, EV adoption, beneficial electrification, and data centers across Texas, Colorado, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. The company anticipates needing 15,000 to 29,000 megawatts of new generation by year-end 2031. Resource planning processes are underway, with Minnesota PUC approving an integrated resource plan for nearly 5,000 MW, Texas/New Mexico evaluating RFPs for 5,000 to 10,000 MW, and Colorado recommending 5,000 to 14,000 MW of new generation to meet projected sales growth of 3% to 7% per year.

    02

    Federal Policy Advocacy and Tariff Impacts

    The company is actively engaging at the federal level to advocate for policies supporting cost-effective and rapid adoption of new energy resources, including tech-neutral tax credits, siting and permitting reforms, and wildfire mitigation actions. While tariffs are a fluid situation, Xcel Energy estimates its total tariff exposure on the $45 billion base capital plan for 2025-2029 to be approximately 2% to 3%, primarily impacting battery storage. The company is confident in navigating this, expecting a rapid evolution of the battery supply chain similar to solar.

    03

    Wildfire Mitigation and Constructive Legislation

    Significant progress has been made on wildfire risk reduction. In Colorado, a constructive settlement was reached on the $1.9 billion wildfire mitigation plan, including a securitization mechanism for customer bill impact. In Texas, a settlement was reached on the $500 million system resiliency plan. Both are awaiting commission decisions by Q3 2025. Additionally, legislation in Texas and North Dakota providing an affirmative defense to civil liability for material compliance with approved wildfire mitigation plans is seen as a positive framework for future legislation.

    04

    Customer Affordability and Tax Credit Benefits

    Xcel Energy emphasizes its commitment to keeping customer bills low, with residential electric bill growth below the rate of inflation for the past decade. Tech-neutral and nuclear production tax credits (PTCs) are critical tools for affordability. Since 2018, customers have saved over $5 billion from wind generation PTCs, and upper Midwest customers will see an additional $250 million benefit this year from nuclear PTCs. The company continues to advocate for these incentives with policymakers.

    05

    Smokehouse Creek and Marshall Fire Updates

    Progress is being made on Smokehouse Creek wildfire claims, with 151 of 225 submitted claims resolved and $113 million committed in settlements ($79 million paid through Q1). The estimated liability was updated to $290 million, remaining below the $500 million insurance coverage. For the Marshall Fire, new causation theories have been introduced by plaintiffs, including one involving an "unidentified flying object." The company is preparing for a trial in late September, maintaining that its pole attachments' indemnity agreements are strong.

    06

    Rate Case Activity and Data Center Pipeline

    In Wisconsin, Xcel Energy filed 2026-2027 electric and natural gas rate cases requesting revenue increases based on a 10% ROE and 53.5% equity ratio. The company is evaluating filing rate cases in Colorado and New Mexico later this year. The high-probability data center pipeline is on track to meet contracting goals by fall, with strong interest across Minnesota, Colorado, Wisconsin, and the Dakotas, and AQ studies filed in the Southwest Power Pool for thousands of megawatts of inquiries.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.