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    XEL
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    XCEL ENERGY INC XEL

    Feb 6, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Xcel Energy Q4 FY24 — Solid Operational Progress and Data Center Growth

    Xcel Energy delivered solid operational and financial results in Q4 FY24, meeting its earnings guidance for the 20th consecutive year despite headwinds. The company is focused on significant capital investments in infrastructure, advancing its clean energy transition, and serving substantial customer growth, particularly from data centers. Management reaffirmed its 2025 EPS guidance and highlighted ongoing efforts in wildfire mitigation and cost management to ensure customer affordability and system resiliency.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved $3.50 per share in ongoing earnings for FY24, delivering within guidance for the 20th consecutive year.

    • Invested over $7.5 billion in infrastructure in 2024, supporting grid reliability and clean energy.

    • Wind fleet achieved 97% availability in 2024, marking best performance in 5 years.

    • Reduced carbon emissions on the electric system by 57% relative to 2005 levels.

    • Continuous improvement programs generated nearly $500 million in sustainable savings since 2020.

    Concerns

    4
    • FY24 ongoing earnings landed at the low end of the guidance range due to investments in resiliency and warmer-than-normal December weather.

    • O&M expenses increased by $96 million in 2024 due to wildfire mitigation, generation maintenance, and storm response.

    • Estimated liability for Marshall Fire claims remains at $215 million, with a trial set for September.

    • Higher interest charges, net of AFUDC debt, decreased earnings by $0.24 per share in 2024.

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2025 ongoing EPS
    $3.75 to $3.85 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term EPS growth rate
    upper half of 6% to 8%
    high materiality
    High
    5-year base capital plan rate base growth
    in excess of 9%
    high materiality
    High
    Data center contract execution
    remaining amount included in 5-year sales forecast
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    25
    Ongoing EPS
    $3.50
    FY24

    Delivered within guidance range for the 20th consecutive year.

    Ongoing EPS
    $3.35
    FY23

    Compared to FY24 ongoing EPS.

    Earnings impact from rate cases and riders
    $0.87
    FY24

    Positive earnings driver.

    Earnings impact from higher other income
    $0.16
    FY24

    Due to interest income on cash balances and gain on debt repurchase.

    Earnings impact from higher depreciation and amortization
    -$0.40
    FY24

    Reflecting capital investment programs.

    Earnings impact from higher interest charges (net of AFUDC debt)
    -$0.24
    FY24

    Driven by increased debt levels and higher interest rates.

    Earnings impact from higher O&M
    -$0.13
    FY24

    Due to increased investment in wildfire mitigation, generation maintenance, damage prevention, and storm response.

    Earnings impact from other smaller items
    -$0.11
    FY24

    Combined impact of various items.

    Weather-adjusted electric sales growth
    3%
    Q4

    Driven by increased C&I load in SPS and residential sales in PSCo.

    Weather-adjusted electric sales growth
    1%
    FY24

    Driven by increased C&I load in SPS and residential sales in PSCo.

    O&M expenses increase
    $96M
    FY24

    Reflecting actions to reduce future operational risk by increasing investment in wildfire mitigation, generation maintenance, damage prevention, and storm response.

    Wind fleet availability
    97%best performance in 5 years
    FY24

    Achieved first quartile benchmarks, ensuring customer benefit from zero fuel cost and production tax credits.

    Carbon emissions reduction (electric system)
    57%
    relative to 2005 levels

    On track to meet 80% carbon reduction goal by 2030.

    Residential electric bills vs. national average
    28%
    current

    Attributable to thoughtful investments, low-cost renewable resources, and continuous improvement.

    Residential natural gas bills vs. national average
    12%
    current

    Attributable to thoughtful investments, low-cost renewable resources, and continuous improvement.

    Residential electric customer share of wallet reduction
    13%
    since 2014

    Customers have further potential to reduce energy expenditures by over 40% with EV adoption.

    Continuous improvement programs savings
    ~$500M
    since 2020

    Sustainable savings for customers while improving operations and reducing enterprise risk.

    Steel for Fuel program savings
    ~$5B
    since 2017

    Avoided fuel costs and production tax credit benefits for customers.

    Transferability (PTCs) embedded in forecast
    $700M
    annual

    Reduction to revenue, then credits are transferred.

    Forward equity issued
    ~$1.4B
    FY24

    To help fund the $45 billion 5-year capital plan, reduces financing risk and maintains strong balance sheet.

    Marshall Fire claims resolved
    113 of 199
    current

    Progress in the claims process, viewed as constructive.

    Marshall Fire settlement agreements committed
    $73M
    current

    Portion of total estimated liability.

    Marshall Fire settlement agreements paid
    $35M
    current

    Portion of total estimated liability.

    Marshall Fire estimated liability
    $215Mno change
    current

    As described in disclosure, no change to the estimated liability.

    Minnesota electric rate case interim rates
    $192M
    annual

    Approved effective January 2025.

    Industry KPIs

    6
    MetricValueDetails
    Retail sales growth3%%
    Regulatory rate base growthin excess of 9%%
    Rto market structure review
    New gas generation builds upgrades1,000 MWMW
    Contracted large load capacity esas loasapproximately half
    Nuclear capacity factor gas forced outage factor

    Orderbook & backlog

    3
    Data center capacity (5-year sales forecast)approximately halfQ4 FY24

    Already signed contracts; projects under construction and energizing late 2025. Remaining amount expected to be executed by fall.

    Additional investment opportunities pipeline$10BQ4 FY24

    Significant pipeline beyond current base plan.

    Expected load growth30%Q4 FY24

    Expected over the next 5 years.

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Multiple hyperscalersData center capacity agreements

    Signed contracts for approximately half of the new data center capacity included in the 5-year sales forecast. These projects are under construction and will begin energization late 2025. Expect to execute contracts for the remaining amount by fall.

    Capital programs

    5
    5-year base capital planunderway$45B
    Funding: balance of debt and equity

    Benefit: rate base growth in excess of 9%

    Aims to deliver long-term EPS growth in the upper half of 6% to 8% range. Funded by nearly $1.4B in forward equity issued in 2024.

    Colorado Power Pathway projectunderway
    Start: 2023

    Benefit: 675-mile double-circuit 345 kV transmission loop, enable >5,000 MW of essential energy resources

    Began construction on the final segment in July 2024. Will connect resources in Eastern Colorado.

    Sherco solar projectunderway

    Benefit: 710 MW total capacity

    Phase 1 started commercial operations in November 2024. 2 additional phases to come online in 2025 and 2026. Will be the largest solar facility in the Upper Midwest, using existing interconnection from retired coal unit.

    Harrington coal plant conversionnearing completion

    Benefit: 1,000 MW natural gas capacity

    Conversion from coal to natural gas, providing essential energy resiliency and reliability.

    MISO Tranche 2.1 and SPP 2024 ITP portfoliosapproved$3B-$4B

    Benefit: enhance transmission systems, meet customer growth and resiliency needs

    Represents capital investment in excess of the base plan for Xcel Energy's portion of these projects.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Wildfire riskOngoing

    O&M expenses increased $96M in 2024 due to wildfire mitigation and other costs.

    Mitigation: Updated wildfire mitigation plans in Colorado, Texas, and other states. Accelerated risk reduction efforts including operational mitigations (PSPS, wildfire safety operations), physical mitigations (pole repair/replacement, vegetation management), and deployment of advanced risk modeling tools (Technosylva, AI cameras, weather stations).

    Marshall Fire litigationTrial in September

    Estimated liability of $215M; $73M committed in settlement agreements, $35M paid. Trial set for September (liability-only).

    Mitigation: Prepared to defend against claims in trial, disagree with share support and source of second ignition. Progress made in resolving claims (113 of 199 submitted claims resolved).

    Permitting challenges for infrastructure developmentLong-term

    30% expected load growth over the next 5 years requires rapid infrastructure build-out.

    Mitigation: Support broad permitting reform at federal, state, and local levels. Xcel's projects are not expected to be significantly impacted by recent EOs as they do not involve offshore wind or federal lands. Permitting needs for wind, solar, and storage assets are relatively light.

    Labor availability for capital projectsLong-term

    Massive build-out requires significant human capital.

    Mitigation: Working actively with national and local IBEWs and other trade organizations. Partnering with vendors to provide insights into capital project backlog. Supporting developmental geo colleges, technical colleges, and high school recruitment to build talent pipeline.

    China tariffs on renewable componentsOngoing

    Impact on procurement decisions for renewable assets.

    Mitigation: Planned for tariffs, familiar with working with suppliers and manufacturing outside of China. Making appropriate procurement decisions to deliver best possible price to customers.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Minnesota Commission RFP/IRP settlement decision

    Q1 FY25
    CurrentPending decision
    TargetDecision from Minnesota Commission

    Why it matters

    This decision will shape Xcel's generation portfolio, including 720 MW of company-owned firm dispatchable resources and 4,200 MW of additional generation needs.

    In the first quarter, we anticipate a decision from the Minnesota Commission on our RFP an IRP settlement.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Are Xcel's projects impacted by new administration's renewable permitting policies? What is embedded in the plan regarding transferability?

    Xcel's projects are not expected to be impacted by recent EOs as they have no offshore wind or federal land projects. The company supports broad permitting reform. Approximately $700 million per year in transferability is embedded in the forecast, which is a reduction to revenue.

    We have about 30% expected load growth over the next 5 years and making sure that we can deliver on that is important. So any -- we think that any of the executive orders and any of the challenges that may be embedded in there today are things that we can always work through.

    asked by Nicholas Campanella · answered by Robert Frenzel

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Capital Investments and Infrastructure Development

    Xcel Energy invested over $7.5 billion in 2024 across its 8 states to build and maintain infrastructure, focusing on advanced grid technology, transmission, and carbon-free generation. Key projects include the Colorado Power Pathway, a 675-mile transmission loop enabling over 5,000 MW of resources, and potential $3 billion to $4 billion in capital investment from MISO Tranche 2.1 and SPP 2024 ITP transmission portfolios. These investments are crucial for supporting customer growth and enhancing system reliability and resiliency.

    02

    Clean Energy Transition and Resource Planning

    The company continues its clean energy transition, with Phase 1 of the Sherco solar project (710 MW total capacity) starting commercial operations in November. The Monticello nuclear facility received a 20-year license renewal through 2050, securing a critical low-cost, carbon-free resource. Xcel Energy is also converting its 1,000 MW Harrington coal plant to natural gas. The company remains on track to achieve an 80% carbon reduction by 2030, supported by its geographic advantage in renewable resources.

    03

    Wildfire Mitigation and System Resiliency

    Xcel Energy has accelerated efforts to protect its system from extreme weather, filing updated wildfire mitigation plans in Colorado and a new system resiliency plan in Texas, along with plans in other states. Risk reduction efforts include operational mitigations like public safety power shutoffs, physical mitigations such as repairing priority distribution poles and vegetation management, and deployment of advanced risk modeling tools and AI-equipped cameras and weather stations.

    04

    Customer Growth and Data Center Demand

    The company anticipates approximately 30% load growth over the next 5 years, driven significantly by data centers. Xcel Energy has already signed contracts for about half of the new data center capacity included in its 5-year sales forecast, with these projects under construction and expected to energize later this year. Management expects to execute contracts for the remaining base plan capacity by fall, with a large backlog of additional opportunities, and notes that data centers represent only half of the 5% long-term sales growth projection.

    05

    Regulatory and Legislative Engagements

    In regulatory matters, interim rates of $192 million were approved in the Minnesota electric rate case effective January 2025, and a settlement was approved in the North Dakota natural gas rate case. The company is awaiting key decisions on resource plans, including Minnesota's RFP and IRP settlement (Q1), SPS's 10,000 MW RFP recommendations (Q2), and Colorado's resource plan for 5,000-14,000 MW needs (Q3). Discussions are ongoing regarding federal and state wildfire policy changes and the impact of IRA legislation on tax credits and transferability.

    06

    Financial Performance and Capital Funding

    Xcel Energy reported ongoing earnings of $3.50 per share for FY24, up from $3.35 in 2023, driven by rate cases and other income, partially offset by higher depreciation, interest, and O&M. To fund its $45 billion 5-year capital plan, the company issued nearly $1.4 billion in forward equity in 2024, aiming to reduce financing risk and maintain a strong balance sheet. The estimated liability for the Marshall Fire claims remains at $215 million, with 113 of 199 claims resolved.

    07

    Cost Management and Customer Affordability

    The company emphasizes its commitment to keeping customer bills low, with average residential electric and natural gas bills 28% and 12% below the national average, respectively. Continuous improvement programs have generated nearly $500 million in sustainable savings since 2020, and the Steel for Fuel program has saved customers nearly $5 billion in avoided fuel costs and production tax credit benefits since 2017. The residential electric customer share of wallet has been reduced by 13% since 2014.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.