Exxon Mobil (XOM) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Inquired about the exploration license expiry on the Stabroek block in 2027 and the potential of the force majeure area disputed by Venezuela, asking about milestones for evaluating resource potential.

Management continues exploration in accessible areas, leveraging learnings from development wells. The unlock for the force majeure area depends on the International Court of Justice ruling on the border dispute, which is a critical milestone. ExxonMobil is optimistic about future access, as force majeure pauses the clock.

“one of the unlocks with respect to that region will be the ruling that comes out of the International Court of Justice that's the process that Guyana has been going through with Venezuela to align on the -- which resolve the border dispute. So I think that will be a critical milestone.”

asked by Devin McDermott · answered by Darren Woods

Asked about Q4 Permian production, FY26 guidance, potential upside, and the impact of lightweight proppant deployment.

Management cautioned against extrapolating quarterly results, noting a significant annual improvement is expected for FY26 versus FY25, up approximately 200,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day. Technology, including lightweight proppant (expected in 50% of new wells by end of FY26), shows greater promise, extending growth beyond 2030, with a continued focus on maximizing ultimate recovery at lower cost.

“we expect to be up about 200,000 koebd kind of year-over-year. Again, that's not going to be necessarily what you see each and every quarter.”

asked by Neil Mehta · answered by Kathryn Mikells

Inquired about potential upside from markets not in the 2030 plan, specifically Libya, Iraq, and Venezuela, and followed up on the investability of Venezuela.

Management acknowledged significant resource potential in these markets, contingent on favorable fiscal regimes and legal infrastructure. ExxonMobil's unique capabilities provide an advantage, and progress is expected in some areas, though these take time. Venezuela is currently 'uninvestable' due to fiscal structures, but ExxonMobil offered a technical assessment team to the US administration to help policy-making.

“what I said at the White House was, given the current fiscal structures in place: legal, that you couldn't invest, but that there was opportunities to address that.”

asked by Douglas George Blyth Leggate · answered by Darren Woods

Asked if future assets must be 'advantaged' and how Permian technology can be scaled across the portfolio.

Management clarified that 'advantaged' derives from ExxonMobil's unique capabilities in developing assets, not solely the resource itself, and this approach will continue. Permian technology is scalable due to a centralized technology organization that fosters diverse experiences and ensures innovation flows to the highest value opportunities. The company is also focused on improving recovery from already-depleted fields.

“the advantaged assets are -- the advantage derives from what we bring to the development of those assets, not necessarily in the resource itself.”

asked by Bob Brackett · answered by Darren Woods

Sought an update on FID plans for Papua New Guinea and Mozambique, their competitiveness, and the startup status of Golden Pass.

Management stated that PNG and Mozambique projects are designed to be cost-competitive and advantaged. Mozambique FID is expected in H2 FY26, with delays used productively to optimize design. Golden Pass was mechanically completed in Q4 FY25, is now in commissioning and startup, with first LNG expected very early March 2026.

“My expectation is we will see kind of first LNG produced in very early March is what it's looking like right now.”

asked by Arun Jayaram · answered by Darren Woods

Asked for more details on the new ERP system, its financial impact, and overall materiality.

Management described it as a material part of the transformation, consolidating over 10 ERP systems into one data construct. This has already contributed to $15 billion in structural cost savings through 2025 and will result in 97% fewer profit centers and 70% fewer cost centers, enabling AI at scale and improving efficiency and effectiveness.

“We're going to have 97% fewer profit centers. 70% fewer cost centers.”

asked by Wei Jiang · answered by Kathryn Mikells

Inquired if data center interest in carbon capture and storage (CCS) is genuine and could provide a material uplift for the segment.

Management confirmed the interest is real, noting that for low-carbon data centers at scale, gas-fired power with CCS is the only viable near-to-medium-term option. ExxonMobil is uniquely positioned with its end-to-end CCS system and is in serious discussions with hyperscalers, hoping for a project announcement by year-end.

“My hope is and expectation is we should see that work manifest itself hopefully by year-end with the project announcement, but I think it's serious right now.”

asked by Jean Ann Salisbury · answered by Darren Woods

Asked about the upstream base decline rate and expected downtime/uptime in manufacturing operations.

Management did not provide a specific base decline rate but stated that production is growing past 2030, offsetting depletion, with technology improving recovery at low cost. For manufacturing, a new global operations organization will enhance reliability, availability, and uptime, reducing costs and improving competitiveness.

“No, Paul, I don't have a number for that. Sorry.”

asked by Paul Cheng · answered by Darren Woods