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    XYF
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    X Financial Q1 FY26 earnings call XYF

    May 28, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    X Financial Q1 FY26 — Deliberate 58% origination pullback amid credit stress and PRC regulatory tightening

    A shrink-to-survive quarter: X Financial deliberately cut origination and marketing to defend portfolio quality as PRC regulators tighten internet-lending oversight and consumer credit stress deepens industry-wide. Early signs of sequential operating stabilization are emerging even as year-over-year profitability stays deeply depressed, and a heavily capitalized, cash-rich balance sheet funds the wait. Notably, the Q&A session drew no analyst questions.

    Highlights

    5
    • Operating margin recovered to 12% from the depressed 1.4% of Q4 2025 as credit-tightening measures reduced origination-related provisions

    • Total provisions fell sequentially to RMB 282.9M (USD 41M) from RMB 669.3M in Q4 2025

    • Guarantee income more than tripled year-over-year, partially offsetting the facilitation-fee decline

    • Well-capitalized balance sheet: equity-to-asset ratio ~57% (equity ~RMB 7.8B on ~RMB 13.6B assets) with ~RMB 2.4B total cash including restricted cash

    • Continued capital return: ~1.8M ADS repurchased for ~USD 8.2M from January 1 through May 15, 2026, with USD 39.8M remaining under the authorization

    Concerns

    5
    • Total net revenue fell 39.3% YoY to RMB 1.18B (USD 170.5M); net income dropped to RMB 37.9M from RMB 458.1M a year ago, with net profit margin at 3.2% vs 23.6%

    • 91–180 day delinquency rate surged to 9.95% from 2.73% a year ago (and 6.31% at end-Q4 2025), reflecting a borrower base under continued financial strain

    • Loan origination fell 58.4% YoY (35.8% QoQ) to RMB 14.63B, and Q2 guidance of RMB 11.5B–12.5B implies a further sequential decline

    • Provisions of RMB 282.9M remain more than double the RMB 135.5M recorded in Q1 2025, continuing to weigh on profitability

    • Management warned that if evolving PRC internet-lending regulation is implemented as currently understood, operating results may be materially and adversely affected, and historical profitability should not be assumed indicative of future performance

    Guidance & targets

    2
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Q2 2026 total loan origination volume
    RMB 11.5 billion to RMB 12.5 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Industry pricing, funding conditions and origination activity
    Continued influence from evolving regulatory dynamics for the foreseeable future
    low materiality
    Low

    Operational metrics

    6
    Operating margin
    12%up from 1.4% in Q4 2025; down from 29.6% in Q1 2025
    Q1 FY26

    Management flagged the sequential recovery as a meaningful rebound from the depressed Q4 2025 level while acknowledging profitability remains well below the prior-year period.

    Net profit margin
    3.2%3.9% in Q4 2025; 23.6% in Q1 2025
    Q1 FY26

    Year-over-year compression reflects substantially higher credit provisions and the substantially lower revenue base.

    Return on equity
    1.9%not stated
    Q1 FY26

    Management said the low ROE reflects the substantially reduced earnings base.

    Non-GAAP adjusted net income
    RMB 81 millionGAAP net income was RMB 37.9 million for the same period
    Q1 FY26

    Non-GAAP figure; GAAP basic EPS per ADS was RMB 0.96 (USD 0.14) vs RMB 10.92 a year ago.

    Active borrowers
    ~956,520-60.6% YoY; -43.5% QoQ
    Q1 FY26

    Borrower activity continued to contract, consistent with the deliberate origination pullback and tightened approval criteria.

    Equity-to-asset ratio
    ~57%not stated
    as of March 31, 2026

    Cited as evidence the balance sheet remains well capitalized to navigate the current environment; total cash including restricted cash was ~RMB 2.4 billion.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Fee revenueFacilitation fees fell sharply; guarantee income more than tripled YoY
    Delinquencies31–60 day: 2.61%; 91–180 day: 9.95%%
    Capital returns~1.8 million ADS repurchased for ~USD 8.2 millionUSD M
    Loans card receivablesRMB 35.3 billion outstanding loan balanceRMB B
    Provision reserve rateRMB 282.9 million total provisions (USD 41 million)RMB M
    New accounts card acquisitionsRMB 219.8 million borrower acquisition and marketing expense (USD 31.9 million)RMB M
    Billed business purchase volumeRMB 14.63 billion in loans facilitated and originatedRMB B

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    PRC regulatory tightening on internet-based consumer lendingOngoing; expected to influence industry pricing, funding conditions and origination activity for the foreseeable future

    Unquantified — management stated that if current and emerging requirements are implemented as currently understood, operating results 'may be materially and adversely affected' and historical profitability should not be assumed indicative of future performance; management has limited visibility into scope and direction of implementation

    Mitigation: Close monitoring of developments, strengthened compliance infrastructure, conservative origination posture aligned with evolving supervisory expectations

    Consumer credit deterioration / rising late-stage delinquenciesCurrent and ongoing; consistent with stress observed across the broader Chinese consumer credit industry

    91–180 day delinquency rate rose to 9.95% from 6.31% at end-Q4 2025 and 2.73% a year ago; 31–60 day rate of 2.61% is up from 1.25% a year ago (though improved from 2.9% at end-Q4 2025)

    Mitigation: Further narrowed approval criteria, more resources deployed into collections, origination pulled back in segments where repayment risk has risen most sharply

    Elevated credit costs pressuring profitabilityCurrent; management accepted the trade-off knowingly, prioritizing portfolio integrity over short-term earnings

    Total provisions of RMB 282.9M (USD 41M) remain more than double the RMB 135.5M of Q1 2025, despite improving sequentially from RMB 669.3M in Q4 2025

    Mitigation: Credit-tightening measures already reducing origination-related provisions sequentially; continued underwriting discipline

    Continued volume and revenue contractionAt least through Q2 FY26 per guidance; near-term outlook cautious

    Total net revenue fell 39.3% YoY; loan origination fell 58.4% YoY, and Q2 guidance implies a further sequential decline in origination

    Mitigation: Tight cost control (marketing spend cut sharply), capital preservation, shift to lower-cost internally operated origination channels, process automation to keep the cost base lean

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Deliberate retrenchment and origination discipline

    Management carried forward the more conservative posture adopted in the second half of 2025 and further reduced the pace of activity in Q1, explicitly prioritizing portfolio integrity and long-term balance-sheet stability over near-term origination volume. The company continued shifting its origination mix toward internally operated channels to deepen borrower relationships and reduce reliance on higher-cost third-party traffic. Underwriting criteria were further tightened, compliance infrastructure was strengthened, and process automation continued rolling out across servicing and collections to improve efficiency while keeping the cost base lean. Kan Li characterized the volume pullback as deliberate and aligned with evolving supervisory expectations.

    02

    Credit stress and management's response

    Credit conditions remained under pressure, consistent with stress management says it and others are observing across the broader Chinese consumer credit industry, with the data reflecting a borrower base under continued financial strain. A notable divergence emerged: the early-stage 31–60 day delinquency rate improved sequentially while the late-stage 91–180 day rate rose sharply, suggesting prior-vintage stress flowing through even as tightening slows new deterioration. The response was to further narrow approval criteria, deploy more resources into collections, and pull back origination in the segments where repayment risk has risen most sharply. Management accepted the earnings cost knowingly — as Kan Li put it, 'Protecting the integrity of the portfolio matters more to us than defending short-term earnings.'

    03

    P&L in transition: revenue contraction with sequential margin recovery

    Total net revenue was RMB 1.18B (USD 170.5M), down 39.3% year-over-year and 19.9% sequentially, driven primarily by the deliberate reduction in origination activity and partially offset by growth in guarantee income and financing income. Total operating costs and expenses fell to RMB 1.04B (USD 150.1M), down 24.1% year-over-year and 28.5% sequentially, led by the sharp pullback in borrower acquisition and marketing spend. Income from operations recovered to RMB 140.7M (USD 20.4M) — down 75.4% year-over-year but a meaningful rebound from the depressed Q4 2025 level — while income before income taxes of RMB 136.8M was partially offset by investment-related items below the operating line. Net income was RMB 37.9M (USD 5.5M) versus RMB 57.2M in Q4 2025 and RMB 458.1M in Q1 2025; basic earnings per ADS were RMB 0.96 (USD 0.14) versus RMB 10.92 a year ago.

    04

    Revenue mix by line

    Across business lines the pattern tracked the overall volume pullback: facilitation fees fell sharply as origination volume dropped, while post-origination fees declined more modestly, in line with the smaller outstanding portfolio. On the positive side, guarantee income more than tripled year-over-year, reflecting continued recognition of revenue from the existing guaranteed loan portfolio, and financing income was broadly stable. Management referred investors to the 6-K for the full line-item breakdown.

    05

    Regulatory environment: strengthening oversight, limited visibility

    The regulatory environment governing internet-based lending in the People's Republic of China continued to evolve during the quarter, with authorities further strengthening oversight across the consumer credit business chain. Noah Kauffman stated that management has limited visibility into the ultimate scope and direction of implementation, and issued an explicit warning: if current and emerging requirements are implemented as currently understood, operating results may be materially and adversely affected, and historical levels of profitability should not be assumed indicative of future performance. He framed Q1 as 'a business in transition' — revenue and profitability well below prior-year levels amid elevated credit costs and reduced origination, but with early signs of sequential stabilization in operating performance.

    06

    Balance sheet, liquidity and capital return

    The balance sheet remains well capitalized, with total assets of approximately RMB 13.6B and shareholders' equity of approximately RMB 7.8B at quarter-end, and total cash including restricted cash of approximately RMB 2.4B — a position management described as in good shape to navigate the current environment. The share repurchase program continued during the quarter, which management framed as an ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders while maintaining balance-sheet strength. The near-term stance remains capital preservation, disciplined origination and cost control, with updates promised as the regulatory picture becomes clear. The call concluded with no analyst questions taken in the Q&A session.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.