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X Financial (XYF) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Financials· May 28, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

X Financial Q1 FY26 — Deliberate 58% origination pullback amid credit stress and PRC regulatory tightening

A shrink-to-survive quarter: X Financial deliberately cut origination and marketing to defend portfolio quality as PRC regulators tighten internet-lending oversight and consumer credit stress deepens industry-wide. Early signs of sequential operating stabilization are emerging even as year-over-year profitability stays deeply depressed, and a heavily capitalized, cash-rich balance sheet funds the wait. Notably, the Q&A session drew no analyst questions.

Highlights

5
  • Operating margin recovered to 12% from the depressed 1.4% of Q4 2025 as credit-tightening measures reduced origination-related provisions

  • Total provisions fell sequentially to RMB 282.9M (USD 41M) from RMB 669.3M in Q4 2025

  • Guarantee income more than tripled year-over-year, partially offsetting the facilitation-fee decline

  • Well-capitalized balance sheet: equity-to-asset ratio ~57% (equity ~RMB 7.8B on ~RMB 13.6B assets) with ~RMB 2.4B total cash including restricted cash

  • Continued capital return: ~1.8M ADS repurchased for ~USD 8.2M from January 1 through May 15, 2026, with USD 39.8M remaining under the authorization

Concerns

5
  • Total net revenue fell 39.3% YoY to RMB 1.18B (USD 170.5M); net income dropped to RMB 37.9M from RMB 458.1M a year ago, with net profit margin at 3.2% vs 23.6%

  • 91–180 day delinquency rate surged to 9.95% from 2.73% a year ago (and 6.31% at end-Q4 2025), reflecting a borrower base under continued financial strain

  • Loan origination fell 58.4% YoY (35.8% QoQ) to RMB 14.63B, and Q2 guidance of RMB 11.5B–12.5B implies a further sequential decline

  • Provisions of RMB 282.9M remain more than double the RMB 135.5M recorded in Q1 2025, continuing to weigh on profitability

  • Management warned that if evolving PRC internet-lending regulation is implemented as currently understood, operating results may be materially and adversely affected, and historical profitability should not be assumed indicative of future performance

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Q2 2026 total loan origination volume
RMB 11.5 billion to RMB 12.5 billion
high materiality
High
Industry pricing, funding conditions and origination activity
Continued influence from evolving regulatory dynamics for the foreseeable future
low materiality
Low

XYF operating KPIs by quarter

XYF operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPIThis call Mar 2026 Q1 FY26 Jun 2026 Q2 FY26Change vs prior quarter
Loan origination volume
14.63B CNY During the quarter, we facilitated and originated RMB 14.63 billion in loans, a decline of 58.4% year-over-year and 35.8% sequentially from the fourth quarter. Source: earnings call transcript
11.63B CNY During the quarter, we facilitated and originated RMB 11.63 billion in loans, a decline of 70.2% year-over-year and 20.5% sequentially from the first quarter. Source: earnings call transcript
-20.5%
Active borrowers
~956.52K We served approximately 956,520 active borrowers, down 60.6% year-over-year and 43.5% from the prior quarter. Source: earnings call transcript
~720.258K From a volume standpoint, we served approximately 720,258 active borrowers in the quarter, down 74.8% year-over-year and 24.7% from the prior quarter. Source: earnings call transcript
—
Loans facilitated
~1.25M We facilitated approximately 1.25 million loans during the period with an average loan size of RMB 11,741 per transaction. Source: earnings call transcript
~910K We facilitated approximately 0.91 million loans during the period. Source: earnings call transcript
—
Average loan size
11.741K CNY We facilitated approximately 1.25 million loans during the period with an average loan size of RMB 11,741 per transaction. Source: earnings call transcript
12.712K CNY The average loan amount per transaction rose to RMB 12,712, up 8.3% from the prior quarter and 21.3% year-over-year, reflecting a shift in transaction mix toward higher-quality borrowers. Source: earnings call transcript
+8.3%
Outstanding loan balance
35.3B CNY Outstanding loan balance at the quarter end stood at RMB 35.3 billion, a decline of 39.6% from the same period of 2025. Source: earnings call transcript
24.97B CNY Outstanding loan balance at the quarter end stood at RMB 24.97 billion, a decline of 61.5% from the same period of 2025 and 29.2% from the year of the first quarter -- from the end of the first quarter. Source: earnings call transcript
-29.3%
31- to 60-day delinquency rate
2.61% As of March 31, our 31- to 60-day delinquency rate was 2.61% compared with 2.9% at the end of Q4 2025 and 1.25% as of the same period of 2025. Source: earnings call transcript
1.73% As of June 30, our 31- to 60-day delinquency rate was 1.73%, compared with 2.61% at the end of Q1 2026 and 1.16% as of the same period of 2025. Source: earnings call transcript
-0.9 pt

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Risks & headwinds

PRC regulatory tightening on internet-based consumer lending Ongoing; expected to influence industry pricing, funding conditions and origination activity for the foreseeable future

Unquantified — management stated that if current and emerging requirements are implemented as currently understood, operating results 'may be materially and adversely affected' and historical profitability should not be assumed indicative of future performance; management has limited visibility into scope and direction of implementation

Mitigation:Close monitoring of developments, strengthened compliance infrastructure, conservative origination posture aligned with evolving supervisory expectations

Consumer credit deterioration / rising late-stage delinquencies Current and ongoing; consistent with stress observed across the broader Chinese consumer credit industry

91–180 day delinquency rate rose to 9.95% from 6.31% at end-Q4 2025 and 2.73% a year ago; 31–60 day rate of 2.61% is up from 1.25% a year ago (though improved from 2.9% at end-Q4 2025)

Mitigation:Further narrowed approval criteria, more resources deployed into collections, origination pulled back in segments where repayment risk has risen most sharply

Elevated credit costs pressuring profitability Current; management accepted the trade-off knowingly, prioritizing portfolio integrity over short-term earnings

Total provisions of RMB 282.9M (USD 41M) remain more than double the RMB 135.5M of Q1 2025, despite improving sequentially from RMB 669.3M in Q4 2025

Mitigation:Credit-tightening measures already reducing origination-related provisions sequentially; continued underwriting discipline

Continued volume and revenue contraction At least through Q2 FY26 per guidance; near-term outlook cautious

Total net revenue fell 39.3% YoY; loan origination fell 58.4% YoY, and Q2 guidance implies a further sequential decline in origination

Mitigation:Tight cost control (marketing spend cut sharply), capital preservation, shift to lower-cost internally operated origination channels, process automation to keep the cost base lean

3 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Deliberate retrenchment and origination discipline

Management carried forward the more conservative posture adopted in the second half of 2025 and further reduced the pace of activity in Q1, explicitly prioritizing portfolio integrity and long-term balance-sheet stability over near-term origination volume. The company continued shifting its origination mix toward internally operated channels to deepen borrower relationships and reduce reliance on higher-cost third-party traffic.

Underwriting criteria were further tightened, compliance infrastructure was strengthened, and process automation continued rolling out across servicing and collections to improve efficiency while keeping the cost base lean. Kan Li characterized the volume pullback as deliberate and aligned with evolving supervisory expectations.

Credit stress and management's response

Credit conditions remained under pressure, consistent with stress management says it and others are observing across the broader Chinese consumer credit industry, with the data reflecting a borrower base under continued financial strain. A notable divergence emerged: the early-stage 31–60 day delinquency rate improved sequentially while the late-stage 91–180 day rate rose sharply, suggesting prior-vintage stress flowing through even as tightening slows new deterioration.

The response was to further narrow approval criteria, deploy more resources into collections, and pull back origination in the segments where repayment risk has risen most sharply. Management accepted the earnings cost knowingly — as Kan Li put it, 'Protecting the integrity of the portfolio matters more to us than defending short-term earnings.'

P&L in transition: revenue contraction with sequential margin recovery

Total net revenue was RMB 1.18B (USD 170.5M), down 39.3% year-over-year and 19.9% sequentially, driven primarily by the deliberate reduction in origination activity and partially offset by growth in guarantee income and financing income. Total operating costs and expenses fell to RMB 1.04B (USD 150.1M), down 24.1% year-over-year and 28.5% sequentially, led by the sharp pullback in borrower acquisition and marketing spend.

Income from operations recovered to RMB 140.7M (USD 20.4M) — down 75.4% year-over-year but a meaningful rebound from the depressed Q4 2025 level — while income before income taxes of RMB 136.8M was partially offset by investment-related items below the operating line.

Net income was RMB 37.9M (USD 5.5M) versus RMB 57.2M in Q4 2025 and RMB 458.1M in Q1 2025; basic earnings per ADS were RMB 0.96 (USD 0.14) versus RMB 10.92 a year ago.

Revenue mix by line

Across business lines the pattern tracked the overall volume pullback: facilitation fees fell sharply as origination volume dropped, while post-origination fees declined more modestly, in line with the smaller outstanding portfolio. On the positive side, guarantee income more than tripled year-over-year, reflecting continued recognition of revenue from the existing guaranteed loan portfolio, and financing income was broadly stable.

Management referred investors to the 6-K for the full line-item breakdown.

Regulatory environment: strengthening oversight, limited visibility

The regulatory environment governing internet-based lending in the People's Republic of China continued to evolve during the quarter, with authorities further strengthening oversight across the consumer credit business chain. Noah Kauffman stated that management has limited visibility into the ultimate scope and direction of implementation, and issued an explicit warning: if current and emerging requirements are implemented as currently understood, operating results may be materially and adversely affected, and historical levels of profitability should not be assumed indicative of future performance.

He framed Q1 as 'a business in transition' — revenue and profitability well below prior-year levels amid elevated credit costs and reduced origination, but with early signs of sequential stabilization in operating performance.

Balance sheet, liquidity and capital return

The balance sheet remains well capitalized, with total assets of approximately RMB 13.6B and shareholders' equity of approximately RMB 7.8B at quarter-end, and total cash including restricted cash of approximately RMB 2.4B — a position management described as in good shape to navigate the current environment.

The share repurchase program continued during the quarter, which management framed as an ongoing commitment to returning value to shareholders while maintaining balance-sheet strength. The near-term stance remains capital preservation, disciplined origination and cost control, with updates promised as the regulatory picture becomes clear.

The call concluded with no analyst questions taken in the Q&A session.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.