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    XYL
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    Xylem Q1 FY26 earnings call XYL

    Apr 28, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Xylem Q1 FY26 — Record $850M outsourced-water win and 9% EPS growth on a flat top line

    The quarter validates Xylem's reshaping thesis: a deliberately muted top line — 80/20 walk-aways and a bottoming China masking resilient U.S. utility demand — while simplification funds margin expansion and unusually aggressive capital deployment. The record WSS outsourcing win marks the strategic pivot toward long-cycle service annuities, and management framed its held guidance as macro prudence, not a weaker outlook.

    Highlights

    5
    • Adjusted EPS of $1.12, up 9% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA margin up 20 bps to 20.6% despite flat revenue

    • WSS booked the company's largest order ever in April — an $850M outsourced water contract delivered over 20 years (75% service / 25% capital)

    • Backlog rose sequentially to $4.7B with company book-to-bill above 1; Applied Water data-center orders in Q1 exceeded the full-year total for all of 2025

    • MCS orders up a robust 15% YoY as smart-metering projects that shifted out of Q4 landed; U.S. utility orders (MCS+WI proxy) up double digits with revenue up mid-teens

    • $581M of shares repurchased in Q1 under the new $1.5B authorization, dividend raised ~8% in January, and a $219M water-quality instrumentation acquisition signed in March

    Concerns

    5
    • Company orders and organic revenue were both flat YoY, with WSS revenue down 2% on capital-project timing and weather impacts on service branches

    • China revenue fell 30% YoY, and 80/20 walk-away actions continue to weigh on organic growth, weighted to the first 2–3 quarters of the year

    • Applied Water EBITDA margin came in below management's expectations on unfavorable sales mix (up only 10 bps YoY)

    • MCS EBITDA margin declined 10 bps YoY, Q2 MCS margin will be down YoY again on energy impacts, and the international metering divestiture close slipped to end of Q2 on regulatory approval timing

    • FY26 EPS guidance held unchanged despite buyback accretion, explicitly reflecting prudence around an uncertain macro (Middle East conflict, tariffs, fuel inflation, currency and rates)

    Guidance & targets

    16
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 reported revenue
    $9.2B–$9.3B, delivering reported revenue growth of 2%–3%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 organic revenue growth
    2%–4%, unchanged
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin
    22.9%–23.3%, representing 70–110 bps of expansion versus prior year
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS
    $5.35–$5.60, unchanged
    high materiality
    High
    Free cash flow margin (long-term framework)
    Low double-digit free cash flow margin, with additional progress in 2026
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Q2 2026 revenue growth
    2%–3% reported; roughly 1% organic
    high materiality
    High
    Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin
    Approximately 22%–22.5%, up 20–70 bps YoY
    high materiality
    High
    Q2 2026 EPS
    $1.31–$1.36
    high materiality
    High
    MCS segment EBITDA margin trajectory
    Down YoY in Q2 (energy impacts), improving sequentially from Q1, returning to margin expansion in H2
    medium materiality
    Medium
    MCS exit-rate EBITDA margin (post divestiture)
    Well in excess of 25% EBITDA margin exiting FY26, the base rate going into FY27
    high materiality
    Medium
    MCS water (smart metering) orders growth
    Double-digit orders growth for water throughout the balance of the year
    medium materiality
    Medium
    MCS long-term order growth rate
    High-single-digit order growth rate over a rolling ~24 months
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Annual M&A capital deployment
    $1 billion annual capital deployment toward M&A
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Long-term EPS growth (Investor Day 2024 framework)
    Mid-teens EPS growth
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Applied Water segment EBITDA margin
    Back above 20% over the balance of the year, improving sequentially
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Q3 2026 organic revenue growth
    ~5% organic growth (vs ~1% in Q2), on roughly flat sequential revenue dollars, with a normal Q4 seasonal ramp
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    6
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Measurement & Control Solutions (MCS)
    Revenue growth driven by energy metering demand, offset partly by softness in water meters; margin decline driven by unfavorable mix and inflation, partly offset by productivity and price. Orders strength came from smart-metering demand in water, including projects that shifted out of Q4. The international metering divestiture is now expected to close at end of Q2 due to regulatory approval timing, which is reflected in updated reported guidance.
    Orders growth: +15% YoYBook-and-ship revenue growth: +9%Channel inventory: back to normalized levels
    +1%EBITDA margin 20.9%, down 10 bps YoY
    Water Infrastructure
    Orders driven by strong transport demand supported by growth in the U.S. and India. Revenue decline driven by softness in treatment related to 80/20 walk-away actions, partly offset by transport strength; U.S. growth was offset by declines in China and Western Europe (where 80/20 initiatives create short-term noise). Margin expansion driven by productivity more than offsetting inflation and mix.
    Orders growth: +2% YoY
    -1%EBITDA margin up 120 bps YoY
    Applied Water
    Orders lifted by large projects and data-center wins. Revenue flat as strength in U.S. commercial buildings offset softness in industrial and residential end markets. Margin driven by productivity and price, mostly offset by inflation, volume and mix; the shortfall vs expectations was sales mix at the gross-margin line, with management confident in strong expansion over the remainder of the year.
    Orders growth: +2% YoYData-center orders: Q1 exceeded the full-year total for all of 2025
    flatEBITDA margin up 10 bps YoY, below management expectations
    Water Solutions and Services (WSS)
    Orders declined on capital-project timing; subsequently in April the segment booked its largest order ever, the $850M outsourced water contract (see deals_partnerships). Revenue decline driven by capital-project timing and weather impacts on service branch operations, partly offset by strength in dewatering. Margin expansion driven by price, productivity and mix, offset by inflation, volume and investments.
    -2%EBITDA margin 22.1%, up 40 bps YoY
    United States — utility end market (MCS + WI proxy)
    Pine cited these figures as evidence of U.S. utility demand resilience, corroborated by a full-day session with ~15 large-municipality utility CEOs who indicated no meaningful funding pullbacks or project delays. MCS orders were driven by large water orders primarily in the Southeast U.S. plus solid energy activity.
    U.S. utility orders growth: up double digits YoY
    Revenue up mid-teens
    China (geographic)
    Described as bottoming out / bouncing along the bottom. Decline attributed roughly 1/3 to market, 1/3 to competitor actions, and 1/3 to Xylem actively walking away from business; the team is doubling down on areas of greater differentiation. Pressure is concentrated in Q1–Q2 with comps easing thereafter (forward headwind quantified in risks_headwinds).
    -30%

    Operational metrics

    6
    Adjusted EPS
    $1.12+9% YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Non-GAAP (adjusted) basis, per the call's stated convention that all figures are organic and/or adjusted unless otherwise indicated.

    Adjusted EBITDA margin
    20.6%+20 bps YoY
    Q1 FY26

    Non-GAAP. Delivered on flat revenue, credited to operational discipline from the simplification program.

    Net debt to adjusted EBITDA
    0.6xIncreased vs prior, driven by opportunistic share repurchases
    Q1 FY26

    Non-GAAP leverage framing. Balance sheet described as very healthy, supporting continued deployment across the capital framework.

    Dividend increase
    ~8%
    January 2026

    Per-share amount not stated on the call; framed as part of a balanced capital-allocation approach.

    Share buyback
    $581M executed in Q1Against new $1.5B authorization announced February 2026
    Q1 FY26

    Remaining authorization and average price not stated. Called opportunistic and a reflection of confidence in the business.

    Organic revenue growth
    flatvs prior year, in line with expectations
    Q1 FY26

    All references on the call are organic and/or adjusted unless otherwise indicated.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Tariff cost impactNo material impact to projected FY26 results from recently announced tariff changes
    Price realization vs costPrice/cost positive, including the tariff piece
    Data center prime power demandQ1 data-center orders exceeded the full-year total for all of 2025
    Dealer inventory months of supplyBack to normalized levels
    Incremental margin operating leverageNormal ~40% incremental flow-through not earned on inflation-offset pricing%
    Order backlog order intake by segmentCompany orders flat YoY; MCS +15%, Water Infrastructure +2%, Applied Water +2%, WSS down on capital-project timing% YoY
    Industry production market size forecasts$1.5 trillion U.S. water infrastructure investment needed over the next decade$T

    Orderbook & backlog

    5
    Total backlog$4.7BEnd of Q1 FY26

    Up sequentially

    Demand described as solid; backlog growth to be read in conjunction with orders given large-project lumpiness.

    Book-to-bill (company)Above 1Q1 FY26

    Cited as evidence of staying close to customers despite flat orders YoY (WSS project timing offset strength in other segments).

    MCS segment backlog~$1.4BEnd of Q1 FY26

    Flat sequentially

    Prepared remarks: MCS book-to-bill below 1 with backlog flat. Q&A (Grogan) separately noted backlog increased sequentially but by less than the implied book-to-bill because in-quarter orders were previously won projects now under firm within-year delivery commitments — both statements captured as made; internal tension flagged.

    MCS book-to-billBelow 1Q1 FY26

    Despite orders up 15% YoY; large-project timing makes single-quarter book-to-bill noisy per management.

    Applied Water book-to-billWell above 1Q1 FY26

    Lifted by large projects and data-center wins; data-center orders in Q1 exceeded the full-year total for all of 2025.

    Deals & partnerships

    3
    Undisclosed German water-quality instrumentation firm (name withheld under confidentiality provisions with the seller)Acquisition (bolt-on)$219M purchase price (consideration type not stated)

    Designer/manufacturer of highly engineered water-quality instruments; a leader in submersible sensors for environmental monitoring, spanning clean water, wastewater, environmental and industrial applications. Expands Xylem's role as a systems intelligence partner supporting resilient long-cycle demand and higher-value digital and service solutions. Described as a small-to-medium bolt-on within the analytics business.

    Undisclosed buyer — international metering (metrology) business divestitureDivestiture (MCS international metering business)

    Update provided in prepared remarks; the delayed close is reflected in updated guidance. Q&A referred to it as the 'international metrology divestiture' (likely ASR variant of metering).

    Undisclosed existing customer in the specialty-chemical verticalCustomer contract — outsourced water services (largest order in company history)$850M total contract value, ~75% service / ~25% capital20 years

    Booked by Water Solutions and Services (WSS). Xylem provides process water for cooling and boiler feed water in the customer's manufacturing process — front-end capital build plus long-term service tail. Management says a pipeline of further outsourced contracts exists and reinforces that the WSS services strategy is delivering.

    Risks & headwinds

    8
    China demand weaknessConcentrated in Q1–Q2 FY26; comps ease thereafter; described as bottoming

    China revenue down 30% YoY in Q1; ~1% headwind to FY26 total sales, ~2% in H1 (pressure concentrated in Q1–Q2)

    Mitigation: Doubling down on areas of differentiation; roughly 1/3 of the decline is Xylem deliberately walking away from business

    80/20 walk-away revenue dragWeighted to the first 2–3 quarters of FY26; longer-tail exits in the treatment business (Water Infrastructure) may extend past that

    ~200 bps offset to FY26 organic growth (analyst-cited prior-guidance figure, not disputed by management)

    Mitigation: Deliberate portfolio action under the 80/20 program; FY26 previously framed as the peak walk-away year

    Middle East conflict and fuel-cost inflationNext 4 weeks called critical for watching the conflict (reference to strait garbled as [indiscernible] in transcript)

    Unquantified; fuel prices already increasing on the Iran escalation

    Mitigation: Immediate fuel surcharges implemented; incremental pricing first lever, dynamic supply-chain management/alternate sourcing second

    Tariffs and broader input-cost inflationFY26

    No material impact to projected FY26 results from recently announced tariff changes; still price/cost positive including the tariff piece

    Mitigation: Price as first lever, sourcing actions second; offsets expected roughly dollar-for-dollar, though below the normal ~40% incremental flow-through, so margin percentage could compress slightly

    International metering divestiture regulatory delayQ2 FY26

    Close pushed to end of Q2 FY26 on regulatory approval timing

    Mitigation: Reflected in updated guidance (reported revenue raised to $9.2B–$9.3B); MCS margin trajectory intact post-close

    Applied Water margin below planQ1 FY26; sequential recovery expected through balance of year

    Q1 EBITDA margin up only 10 bps YoY, below management expectations, on unfavorable sales mix at the gross-margin line

    Mitigation: Cost actions taken, mix normalization, and higher-margin data-center projects shipping later in the year; back above 20% expected

    Weather impact on WSS service branch operationsQ1 FY26

    Contributed (with capital-project timing) to WSS revenue decline of 2% YoY

    Mitigation: Partly offset by strength in dewatering

    Macro monitoring items: currency and interest-rate fluctuationsOngoing through FY26

    Unquantified

    Mitigation: Explicitly monitored alongside tariffs and inflationary pressures; guidance approach kept prudent (EPS range held despite buyback benefit)

    Q&A highlights

    9

    Who is the customer, what are the economics, and is there a pipeline for more outsourced contracts?

    Pine: customer unnamed but existing, in the specialty-chemical vertical; Xylem supplies process water for cooling and boiler feed water, and more pipeline exists. Grogan detailed the anatomy: ~75% service / 25% capital, ~10% of contract value realized this year, capital build completing next year, water flowing in 2028 to start the 20-year service tail.

    So out of the $850 million, it's about 75% service and 25% capital. right? We'll realize about 10% of the contract value this year with the balance of the capital build next year and look to flow water in 2028 to start the service tail.

    asked by Deane Dray (RBC Capital Markets) · answered by William Grogan

    4 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Quarter shape: flat by design, margins by discipline

    Q1 delivered flat orders and flat organic revenue versus prior year — explicitly in line with expectations — as deliberate 80/20 walk-away actions and China weakness moderated the short-term top line while demand for mission-critical solutions held. Management's emphasis was on execution quality: productivity and price more than offset inflation, unfavorable mix and lower volume, and working-capital efficiency metrics continued to improve. Free cash flow was positive in the quarter on accrual timing and lower payments, partly offset by restructuring costs and higher CapEx. The framing throughout was that reduced organizational complexity from the multiyear transformation is what lets the company absorb a dynamic external environment.

    02

    WSS outsourcing milestone and the services growth engine

    The $850M, 20-year outsourced water contract booked by Water Solutions & Services in April is presented as proof the strategy is working, not just a milestone — Xylem provides process water for cooling and boiler feed water to an existing specialty-chemical customer, pairing technical know-how on the front-end capital build with a two-decade service tail. Matthew Pine said there is 'for sure' more pipeline of these outsourced deals and that he pushes the team on it daily. The win also reframes WSS's soft quarter: the Q1 orders decline was capital-project timing, immediately followed by the segment's largest order ever.

    03

    Smart metering cycle: energy now, water next

    Pine laid out the AMI replacement clock: electric utilities did their major AMI push coming out of the 2008–09 recession under the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, and that installed base has entered its refresh over roughly the past year, running through the next couple of years. Water deployments lagged that first electric wave by about 5 to 7 years, so the water refresh cycle should begin picking up as the decade closes, heading into 2030. This sequencing underpins why energy metering demand is carrying MCS revenue today while water metering drives the order book, with channel inventory now back to normalized levels.

    04

    China and 80/20 portfolio repositioning

    China is described as 'bottoming out, kind of bouncing at the bottom,' with the pressure concentrated in the first and second quarters before comparisons ease. The decline decomposes into roughly equal thirds — market weakness🌐, competitor actions, and Xylem deliberately walking away from business — while the team doubles down on areas of genuine differentiation. The broader 80/20 walk-away program, previously framed as peaking in 2026, is weighted to the first two to three quarters, with some longer-tail exits in the treatment business inside Water Infrastructure extending beyond that.

    05

    M&A engine rebuilt bottom-up

    Pine contrasted the current M&A process with the prior top-down, lumpy, bigger-target approach: deal sourcing is now owned bottom-up by segment presidents, producing what he called a very strong pipeline across all segments and, he argued, more consistent capital deployment over time. The March acquisition — a German maker of highly engineered water-quality instruments and a leader in submersible sensors for environmental monitoring — fits this template: a small-to-medium bolt-on strengthening high-margin optical sensing and process applications across clean water, wastewater, environmental and industrial markets, with significant revenue synergies expected from cross-selling into Xylem's industrial and utility customer base.

    06

    Inflation levers and supply-chain insulation

    On William Grippin's supply-chain question, management acknowledged forward fixed-price contracts cover only limited raw-commodity exposure; the real defenses are incremental pricing as the first lever and dynamic supply-chain management — alternate sources and competitive bids — as the second, a muscle built through COVID-era disruptions and tariffs. Fuel surcharges went into place immediately as the Iran conflict escalation lifted fuel prices, and management called the next four weeks critical for watching the conflict's ripple effects across the industrial supply chain. The stated expectation is dollar-for-dollar cost offset, while conceding such pricing dilutes margin percentage because it doesn't earn the normal incremental flow-through.

    07

    Sustainability agenda and leadership changes

    The 2025 sustainability report, posted April 24, marks achievement of the goals set in 2019 around water reuse, pollution prevention and stewardship, and pivots to a 2030 agenda with three signature priorities: decarbonizing the water sector, strengthening water stewardship, and expanding access to water, sanitation and hygiene. Two executive changes accompany it: Snehal Desai moves to a more focused Chief Growth and Commercial Officer role leading enterprise growth strategy and commercial excellence, and Sivan Zamir is appointed to a newly created Chief Innovation and Product Officer role to bring differentiated solutions to market faster. Note: the transcript mis-tags this entire closing segment to analyst Scott Davis, though Michael Travers had handed the call back to CEO Matthew Pine for closing comments.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.