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Xylem (XYL) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Industrials· Apr 28, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Xylem Q1 FY26 — Record $850M outsourced-water win and 9% EPS growth on a flat top line

The quarter validates Xylem's reshaping thesis: a deliberately muted top line — 80/20 walk-aways and a bottoming China masking resilient U.S. utility demand — while simplification funds margin expansion and unusually aggressive capital deployment. The record WSS outsourcing win marks the strategic pivot toward long-cycle service annuities, and management framed its held guidance as macro prudence, not a weaker outlook.

Highlights

5
  • Adjusted EPS of $1.12, up 9% YoY, with adjusted EBITDA margin up 20 bps to 20.6% despite flat revenue

  • WSS booked the company's largest order ever in April — an $850M outsourced water contract delivered over 20 years (75% service / 25% capital)

  • Backlog rose sequentially to $4.7B with company book-to-bill above 1; Applied Water data-center orders in Q1 exceeded the full-year total for all of 2025

  • MCS orders up a robust 15% YoY as smart-metering projects that shifted out of Q4 landed; U.S. utility orders (MCS+WI proxy) up double digits with revenue up mid-teens

  • $581M of shares repurchased in Q1 under the new $1.5B authorization, dividend raised ~8% in January, and a $219M water-quality instrumentation acquisition signed in March

Concerns

5
  • Company orders and organic revenue were both flat YoY, with WSS revenue down 2% on capital-project timing and weather impacts on service branches

  • China revenue fell 30% YoY, and 80/20 walk-away actions continue to weigh on organic growth, weighted to the first 2–3 quarters of the year

  • Applied Water EBITDA margin came in below management's expectations on unfavorable sales mix (up only 10 bps YoY)

  • MCS EBITDA margin declined 10 bps YoY, Q2 MCS margin will be down YoY again on energy impacts, and the international metering divestiture close slipped to end of Q2 on regulatory approval timing

  • FY26 EPS guidance held unchanged despite buyback accretion, explicitly reflecting prudence around an uncertain macro (Middle East conflict, tariffs, fuel inflation, currency and rates)

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year 2026 reported revenue
$9.2B–$9.3B, delivering reported revenue growth of 2%–3%
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 organic revenue growth
2%–4%, unchanged
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin
22.9%–23.3%, representing 70–110 bps of expansion versus prior year
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 adjusted EPS
$5.35–$5.60, unchanged
high materiality
High
Free cash flow margin (long-term framework)
Low double-digit free cash flow margin, with additional progress in 2026
medium materiality
Medium
Q2 2026 revenue growth
2%–3% reported; roughly 1% organic
high materiality
High
Q2 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin
Approximately 22%–22.5%, up 20–70 bps YoY
high materiality
High
Q2 2026 EPS
$1.31–$1.36
high materiality
High
MCS segment EBITDA margin trajectory
Down YoY in Q2 (energy impacts), improving sequentially from Q1, returning to margin expansion in H2
medium materiality
Medium
MCS exit-rate EBITDA margin (post divestiture)
Well in excess of 25% EBITDA margin exiting FY26, the base rate going into FY27
high materiality
Medium
MCS water (smart metering) orders growth
Double-digit orders growth for water throughout the balance of the year
medium materiality
Medium
MCS long-term order growth rate
High-single-digit order growth rate over a rolling ~24 months
medium materiality
Medium
Annual M&A capital deployment
$1 billion annual capital deployment toward M&A
medium materiality
Medium
Long-term EPS growth (Investor Day 2024 framework)
Mid-teens EPS growth
medium materiality
Medium
Applied Water segment EBITDA margin
Back above 20% over the balance of the year, improving sequentially
medium materiality
Medium
Q3 2026 organic revenue growth
~5% organic growth (vs ~1% in Q2), on roughly flat sequential revenue dollars, with a normal Q4 seasonal ramp
medium materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Measurement & Control Solutions (MCS)
Revenue growth driven by energy metering demand, offset partly by softness in water meters; margin decline driven by unfavorable mix and inflation, partly offset by productivity and price. Orders strength came from smart-metering demand in water, including projects that shifted out of Q4. The international metering divestiture is now expected to close at end of Q2 due to regulatory approval timing, which is reflected in updated reported guidance.
Orders growth: +15% YoYBook-and-ship revenue growth: +9%Channel inventory: back to normalized levels
—+1%—EBITDA margin 20.9%, down 10 bps YoY
Water Infrastructure
Orders driven by strong transport demand supported by growth in the U.S. and India. Revenue decline driven by softness in treatment related to 80/20 walk-away actions, partly offset by transport strength; U.S. growth was offset by declines in China and Western Europe (where 80/20 initiatives create short-term noise). Margin expansion driven by productivity more than offsetting inflation and mix.
Orders growth: +2% YoY
—-1%—EBITDA margin up 120 bps YoY
Applied Water
Orders lifted by large projects and data-center wins. Revenue flat as strength in U.S. commercial buildings offset softness in industrial and residential end markets. Margin driven by productivity and price, mostly offset by inflation, volume and mix; the shortfall vs expectations was sales mix at the gross-margin line, with management confident in strong expansion over the remainder of the year.
Orders growth: +2% YoYData-center orders: Q1 exceeded the full-year total for all of 2025
—flat—EBITDA margin up 10 bps YoY, below management expectations
Water Solutions and Services (WSS)
Orders declined on capital-project timing; subsequently in April the segment booked its largest order ever, the $850M outsourced water contract (see deals_partnerships). Revenue decline driven by capital-project timing and weather impacts on service branch operations, partly offset by strength in dewatering. Margin expansion driven by price, productivity and mix, offset by inflation, volume and investments.
—-2%—EBITDA margin 22.1%, up 40 bps YoY
United States — utility end market (MCS + WI proxy)
Pine cited these figures as evidence of U.S. utility demand resilience, corroborated by a full-day session with ~15 large-municipality utility CEOs who indicated no meaningful funding pullbacks or project delays. MCS orders were driven by large water orders primarily in the Southeast U.S. plus solid energy activity.
U.S. utility orders growth: up double digits YoY
—Revenue up mid-teens——
China (geographic)
Described as bottoming out / bouncing along the bottom. Decline attributed roughly 1/3 to market, 1/3 to competitor actions, and 1/3 to Xylem actively walking away from business; the team is doubling down on areas of greater differentiation. Pressure is concentrated in Q1–Q2 with comps easing thereafter (forward headwind quantified in risks_headwinds).
—-30%——

XYL operating KPIs by quarter

XYL operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPI Dec 2024 Q4 FY24 Mar 2025 Q1 FY25 Sep 2025 Q3 FY25 Dec 2025 Q4 FY25This call Mar 2026 Q1 FY26 Jun 2026 Q2 FY26Change vs prior quarter
Backlog
$5.1B Demand remains positive, with our ending backlog of $5.1 billion essentially flat from the prior year, driven by progress executing an MCS on their past due backlog, but offset in part by growth across the other 3 segments. Source: earnings call transcript
$5.1B Demand remained solid with our ending backlog at $5.1 billion and our book-to-bill for the quarter above 1. Source: earnings call transcript
~$5B Backlog remains robust, closing the quarter at approximately $5 billion. Source: earnings call transcript
$4.6B Demand remains positive with our backlog finishing at $4.6 billion. Source: earnings call transcript
$4.7B Demand remains solid with our ending backlog up sequentially to $4.7 billion, and our book-to-bill for the quarter was above 1. Source: earnings call transcript
$5.3B Demand remains healthy with our ending backlog at $5.3 billion and our book-to-bill for the quarter well above 1. Source: earnings call transcript
+12.8%
Backlog Measurement and Control Solutions
~$1.9B Though total MCS backlog remained at roughly $1.9 billion, in line with the prior quarter. Source: earnings call transcript
$1.8B In Measurement & Control Solutions, we continue to convert the backlog with the total for MCS coming down slightly from the prior quarter to $1.8 billion. Source: earnings call transcript
—
~$1.4B In Measurement & Control Solutions, we continue to convert the backlog with MCS' backlog finishing the year at roughly $1.4 billion. Source: earnings call transcript
~$1.4B In Measurement & Control Solutions, book-to-bill was below 1, but backlog remained flat sequentially at roughly $1.4 billion. Source: earnings call transcript
~$1.2B For Measurement and Control Solutions, in the quarter, book-to-bill was below 1, but backlog remained at roughly $1.2 billion. Source: earnings call transcript
—

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Orderbook & backlog

Total backlog $4.7B End of Q1 FY26

Up sequentially

Demand described as solid; backlog growth to be read in conjunction with orders given large-project lumpiness.

Book-to-bill (company) Above 1 Q1 FY26

Cited as evidence of staying close to customers despite flat orders YoY (WSS project timing offset strength in other segments).

MCS segment backlog ~$1.4B End of Q1 FY26

Flat sequentially

Prepared remarks: MCS book-to-bill below 1 with backlog flat. Q&A (Grogan) separately noted backlog increased sequentially but by less than the implied book-to-bill because in-quarter orders were previously won projects now under firm within-year delivery commitments — both statements captured as made; internal tension flagged.

MCS book-to-bill Below 1 Q1 FY26

Despite orders up 15% YoY; large-project timing makes single-quarter book-to-bill noisy per management.

Applied Water book-to-bill Well above 1 Q1 FY26

Lifted by large projects and data-center wins; data-center orders in Q1 exceeded the full-year total for all of 2025.

Deals & partnerships

Undisclosed German water-quality instrumentation firm (name withheld under confidentiality provisions with the seller) Acquisition (bolt-on) $219M purchase price (consideration type not stated)

Designer/manufacturer of highly engineered water-quality instruments; a leader in submersible sensors for environmental monitoring, spanning clean water, wastewater, environmental and industrial applications. Expands Xylem's role as a systems intelligence partner supporting resilient long-cycle demand and higher-value digital and service solutions. Described as a small-to-medium bolt-on within the analytics business.

Undisclosed buyer — international metering (metrology) business divestiture Divestiture (MCS international metering business)

Update provided in prepared remarks; the delayed close is reflected in updated guidance. Q&A referred to it as the 'international metrology divestiture' (likely ASR variant of metering).

Undisclosed existing customer in the specialty-chemical vertical Customer contract — outsourced water services (largest order in company history) $850M total contract value, ~75% service / ~25% capital 20 years

Booked by Water Solutions and Services (WSS). Xylem provides process water for cooling and boiler feed water in the customer's manufacturing process — front-end capital build plus long-term service tail. Management says a pipeline of further outsourced contracts exists and reinforces that the WSS services strategy is delivering.

Risks & headwinds

China demand weakness Concentrated in Q1–Q2 FY26; comps ease thereafter; described as bottoming

China revenue down 30% YoY in Q1; ~1% headwind to FY26 total sales, ~2% in H1 (pressure concentrated in Q1–Q2)

Mitigation:Doubling down on areas of differentiation; roughly 1/3 of the decline is Xylem deliberately walking away from business

80/20 walk-away revenue drag Weighted to the first 2–3 quarters of FY26; longer-tail exits in the treatment business (Water Infrastructure) may extend past that

~200 bps offset to FY26 organic growth (analyst-cited prior-guidance figure, not disputed by management)

Mitigation:Deliberate portfolio action under the 80/20 program; FY26 previously framed as the peak walk-away year

Middle East conflict and fuel-cost inflation Next 4 weeks called critical for watching the conflict (reference to strait garbled as [indiscernible] in transcript)

Unquantified; fuel prices already increasing on the Iran escalation

Mitigation:Immediate fuel surcharges implemented; incremental pricing first lever, dynamic supply-chain management/alternate sourcing second

Tariffs and broader input-cost inflation FY26

No material impact to projected FY26 results from recently announced tariff changes; still price/cost positive including the tariff piece

Mitigation:Price as first lever, sourcing actions second; offsets expected roughly dollar-for-dollar, though below the normal ~40% incremental flow-through, so margin percentage could compress slightly

International metering divestiture regulatory delay Q2 FY26

Close pushed to end of Q2 FY26 on regulatory approval timing

Mitigation:Reflected in updated guidance (reported revenue raised to $9.2B–$9.3B); MCS margin trajectory intact post-close

Applied Water margin below plan Q1 FY26; sequential recovery expected through balance of year

Q1 EBITDA margin up only 10 bps YoY, below management expectations, on unfavorable sales mix at the gross-margin line

Mitigation:Cost actions taken, mix normalization, and higher-margin data-center projects shipping later in the year; back above 20% expected

Weather impact on WSS service branch operations Q1 FY26

Contributed (with capital-project timing) to WSS revenue decline of 2% YoY

Mitigation:Partly offset by strength in dewatering

Macro monitoring items: currency and interest-rate fluctuations Ongoing through FY26

Unquantified

Mitigation:Explicitly monitored alongside tariffs and inflationary pressures; guidance approach kept prudent (EPS range held despite buyback benefit)

Q&A highlights

Who is the customer, what are the economics, and is there a pipeline for more outsourced contracts?

Pine: customer unnamed but existing, in the specialty-chemical vertical; Xylem supplies process water for cooling and boiler feed water, and more pipeline exists. Grogan detailed the anatomy: ~75% service / 25% capital, ~10% of contract value realized this year, capital build completing next year, water flowing in 2028 to start the 20-year service tail.

“So out of the $850 million, it's about 75% service and 25% capital. right? We'll realize about 10% of the contract value this year with the balance of the capital build next year and look to flow water in 2028 to start the service tail.”

asked by Deane Dray (RBC Capital Markets) · answered by William Grogan

4 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Quarter shape: flat by design, margins by discipline

Q1 delivered flat orders and flat organic revenue versus prior year — explicitly in line with expectations — as deliberate 80/20 walk-away actions and China weakness moderated the short-term top line while demand for mission-critical solutions held. Management's emphasis was on execution quality: productivity and price more than offset inflation, unfavorable mix and lower volume, and working-capital efficiency metrics continued to improve.

Free cash flow was positive in the quarter on accrual timing and lower payments, partly offset by restructuring costs and higher CapEx. The framing throughout was that reduced organizational complexity from the multiyear transformation is what lets the company absorb a dynamic external environment.

WSS outsourcing milestone and the services growth engine

The $850M, 20-year outsourced water contract booked by Water Solutions & Services in April is presented as proof the strategy is working, not just a milestone — Xylem provides process water for cooling and boiler feed water to an existing specialty-chemical customer, pairing technical know-how on the front-end capital build with a two-decade service tail.

Matthew Pine said there is 'for sure' more pipeline of these outsourced deals and that he pushes the team on it daily. The win also reframes WSS's soft quarter: the Q1 orders decline was capital-project timing, immediately followed by the segment's largest order ever.

Smart metering cycle: energy now, water next

Pine laid out the AMI replacement clock: electric utilities did their major AMI push coming out of the 2008–09 recession under the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act, and that installed base has entered its refresh over roughly the past year, running through the next couple of years.

Water deployments lagged that first electric wave by about 5 to 7 years, so the water refresh cycle should begin picking up as the decade closes, heading into 2030. This sequencing underpins why energy metering demand is carrying MCS revenue today while water metering drives the order book, with channel inventory now back to normalized levels.

China and 80/20 portfolio repositioning

China is described as 'bottoming out, kind of bouncing at the bottom,' with the pressure concentrated in the first and second quarters before comparisons ease. The decline decomposes into roughly equal thirds — market weakness, competitor actions, and Xylem deliberately walking away from business — while the team doubles down on areas of genuine differentiation.

The broader 80/20 walk-away program, previously framed as peaking in 2026, is weighted to the first two to three quarters, with some longer-tail exits in the treatment business inside Water Infrastructure extending beyond that.

M&A engine rebuilt bottom-up

Pine contrasted the current M&A process with the prior top-down, lumpy, bigger-target approach: deal sourcing is now owned bottom-up by segment presidents, producing what he called a very strong pipeline across all segments and, he argued, more consistent capital deployment over time.

The March acquisition — a German maker of highly engineered water-quality instruments and a leader in submersible sensors for environmental monitoring — fits this template: a small-to-medium bolt-on strengthening high-margin optical sensing and process applications across clean water, wastewater, environmental and industrial markets, with significant revenue synergies expected from cross-selling into Xylem's industrial and utility customer base.

Inflation levers and supply-chain insulation

On William Grippin's supply-chain question, management acknowledged forward fixed-price contracts cover only limited raw-commodity exposure; the real defenses are incremental pricing as the first lever and dynamic supply-chain management — alternate sources and competitive bids — as the second, a muscle built through COVID-era disruptions and tariffs.

Fuel surcharges went into place immediately as the Iran conflict escalation lifted fuel prices, and management called the next four weeks critical for watching the conflict's ripple effects across the industrial supply chain. The stated expectation is dollar-for-dollar cost offset, while conceding such pricing dilutes margin percentage because it doesn't earn the normal incremental flow-through.

Sustainability agenda and leadership changes

The 2025 sustainability report, posted April 24, marks achievement of the goals set in 2019 around water reuse, pollution prevention and stewardship, and pivots to a 2030 agenda with three signature priorities: decarbonizing the water sector, strengthening water stewardship, and expanding access to water, sanitation and hygiene.

Two executive changes accompany it: Snehal Desai moves to a more focused Chief Growth and Commercial Officer role leading enterprise growth strategy and commercial excellence, and Sivan Zamir is appointed to a newly created Chief Innovation and Product Officer role to bring differentiated solutions to market faster.

Note: the transcript mis-tags this entire closing segment to analyst Scott Davis, though Michael Travers had handed the call back to CEO Matthew Pine for closing comments.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.