Investing tools
DCF calculator for Indian stocks
Pick a company, see the growth its price already assumes, then change the assumptions and watch the fair value move.
Showing Marico. See Marico company page →
What the price assumes
Growth trapTo justify its price of ₹776, this stock must grow earnings at 40% every year for 5 years. Our analysis caps realistic growth at ~10%. At that growth it is worth ₹203 — downside of 74%.
- Growth the price implies
- 39.9% a year
- for 5 years, fading to 5%
- It has actually compounded at
- -3.8% a year
- net profit, FY23–FY26 · EPS -3.4%
- The gap
- 0.3 pp
- -74% downside if it only repeats history
Why this baseline, and what it is built on
Marico's recent TTM sales growth is 4.64%, but management provides specific and positive guidance for FY27, targeting 'double-digit revenue growth' (10%+) and 'high-teen EBITDA growth' (15%+), along with 150 bps operating margin expansion. The promise track record is mixed, with some misses and ghosted promises, but also several new and on-track initiatives. Given the explicit forward guidance, a g1 of 10.0% is chosen, aligning with the lower end of 'double-digit' growth, while acknowledging the mixed track record and recent lower TTM growth. Low leverage, but a mixed track record, leads to a discount rate of 11%. A 5-year stage-1 growth period with a 3-year fade to a 5% terminal growth rate is applied.
Through 2026-03-31
Your assumptions
Change any of these and the value moves. A valuation that flips on a one-point change in the required return is telling you something.
Value on these assumptions
₹203.21
Against today's price
-74%
8 projected years, then a terminal value at 5.0%.
Normalized net profit is discounted as a proxy for owner earnings, not full free cash flow. An analytical tool, not investment advice.
How to read this valuation
- Start from the price, not the forecast. A normal DCF asks you to guess growth and hands back a fair value. Run backwards, it takes today's price and solves for the earnings growth the market is already assuming.
- Compare that with what the company has done. The historical profit and EPS CAGR sit beside the implied number. A price that needs 25% a year from a business that has compounded at 10% is asking a lot, and the gap is the risk you are taking on.
- Then apply your own view. Change the growth rate, how long it lasts, how it fades and the return you require. A valuation that flips on a one-point change in the discount rate is telling you something about itself.
- Mind the caveats. Normalized net profit stands in for owner earnings, not full free cash flow; terminal growth is capped at 6%, roughly nominal GDP; cyclicals are flagged because a peak-earnings base overstates value. This is an analytical tool, not investment advice.