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    AGO
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    ASSURED GUARANTY Q2 FY26 earnings call AGO

    Aug 7, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Assured Guaranty Q2 FY26 — Record Valuation Metrics and Strong New Business Production

    Assured Guaranty delivered a strong second quarter, marked by record valuation metrics and robust new business production, particularly in U.S. public finance and global structured finance. The company is actively pursuing growth in its annuity reinsurance platform and international financial guarantee markets, while strategically allocating capital to high-return opportunities, balancing share repurchases with new business investments.

    Highlights

    5
    • Key valuation metrics, including adjusted operating shareholders' equity ($129.94 per share) and adjusted book value ($189.72 per share), reached record highs at quarter end.

    • New business production (PVP) generated $152 million in H1 2026, marking a 48% increase over H1 2025.

    • Adjusted operating income increased to $55 million or $1.23 per share, representing a 22% increase over Q2 2025 per share.

    • Loss expense decreased significantly from $28 million in Q2 2025 to $4 million in Q2 2026.

    • S&P, KBRA, and Moody's affirmed financial strength ratings of financial guarantee insurance subsidiaries with stable outlooks, citing excellent capital and earnings.

    Concerns

    2
    • Alternative investments were down in Q2 2026 due to a $19 million mark-to-market loss on a CLO equity fund, reported on a one-quarter lag.

    • The Brightline transaction continues to experience liquidity pressure, though expected losses have not exceeded deferred premium revenue.

    Guidance & targets

    5
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Demand for core products
    continue
    low materiality
    High
    Annuity reinsurance production and income milestones
    on track to meet
    medium materiality
    High
    PVP (Production Volume Potential) from Q3 commitments
    $42 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Fund finance transaction renewals
    majority will renew at maturity
    low materiality
    High
    PVP (Production Volume Potential) growth
    grow year-over-year
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    1
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Asset Management
    Alternative investments continue to support the strategic decision to allocate a portion of the investment portfolio to them, providing significantly higher returns than the fixed maturity portfolio.
    Inception-to-date annualized internal rate of return for alternative investments: 12%

    Operational metrics

    25
    Adjusted operating income
    $55 millionup from $50 million in Q2 2025
    Q2 2026

    Primarily attributable to strong premium income and lower loss expense.

    Adjusted operating income per share
    $1.2322% increase over Q2 2025
    Q2 2026

    Reflects the increase in adjusted operating income.

    Net earned premiums
    increased
    Q2 2026

    Due to both higher refundings and higher scheduled net earned premiums, primarily from shorter duration strategies like fund finance.

    Loss expense
    $4 milliondown from $28 million in Q2 2025
    Q2 2026

    The largest driver of economic loss development was the Brightline transaction, which did not impact adjusted operating income.

    Mark-to-market loss on CLO equity fund
    $19 million
    Q2 2026

    Reported on a 1-quarter lag. Other alternative investments performed well.

    Inception-to-date IRR for alternative investments
    12%significantly higher than 3-year average yield on fixed maturity portfolio of 4.3%
    inception-to-date

    Reflects the performance of the diversified alternative investment portfolio.

    3-year average yield on fixed maturity portfolio
    4.3%
    3-year average

    Comparison point for alternative investment returns.

    Shares repurchased
    554,000
    Q2 2026

    Part of the ongoing capital deployment strategy.

    Value of shares repurchased
    $45 million
    Q2 2026

    Executed at an average price of $80.68 per share.

    Dividends returned to shareholders
    $17 million
    Q2 2026

    In addition to share repurchases, reflecting shareholder returns.

    Total share repurchases since program inception
    $6 billion81% of shares outstanding at program start
    since 2013

    Represents 81% of shares outstanding at the start of the program in 2013.

    Quarterly dividends per share
    $0.38increased from $0.10
    current

    Reflects the increase in quarterly dividends per share over time.

    Holding company liquidity
    $179 million
    as of call date

    Includes $60 million at AGL.

    Adjusted operating shareholders' equity per share
    $129.94record high
    end of Q2 2026

    Reached a record high at the end of the second quarter.

    Adjusted book value per share
    $189.72record high
    end of Q2 2026

    Reached a record high at the end of the second quarter.

    PVP (Production Volume Potential)
    $132 millionnearly 20% higher than in the first half of 2025
    H1 2026

    Stated by CEO Dominic Frederico. See also COO Robert Bailenson's figure of $152 million for H1 2026 PVP.

    PVP (Production Volume Potential)
    $152 million48% increase compared with $103 million in the first half of last year
    H1 2026

    Stated by COO Robert Bailenson. See also CEO Dominic Frederico's figure of $132 million for H1 2026 PVP.

    PVP (Production Volume Potential)
    $106 million
    H1 2026

    U.S. public finance loan produced more first half PVP than the whole company did during the first half of 2025.

    PVP (Production Volume Potential)
    $35 millioncompared to $15 million in the first half of last year
    H1 2026

    Primarily attributable to fund finance and financial guarantees for life insurance capital management purposes.

    Insured new issue par
    $9.6 billion
    H1 2026

    Covering 423 transactions in total, including both primary and secondary market par.

    Number of transactions insured
    423
    H1 2026

    Includes both primary and secondary market par.

    Total U.S. public finance insured par
    $10.1 billion
    H1 2026

    Includes primary and secondary market par.

    AA category par insured
    $2.8 billion
    H1 2026

    Across primary and secondary transactions.

    Number of large transactions insured
    17
    H1 2026

    Transactions that were $100 million of par or more.

    Fund finance maturities
    few months to 2 years
    ongoing

    Relatively short lives, allowing for quicker capital recycling.

    Industry KPIs

    2
    MetricValueDetails
    Capital returns$45 million buybacks, $17 million dividendsUSD
    Book value per share$189.72USD

    Risks & headwinds

    3
    Liquidity pressure for Brightline transactionCurrent

    Brightline continues to experience liquidity pressure

    Mitigation: Proactive work with Brightline and other creditors on a solution; long runway until 2042 for interest payments; senior position in capital stack.

    Mark-to-market loss on CLO equity fundQ2 2026 (reported on 1-quarter lag)

    $19 million

    Mitigation: Diversification of alternative investment portfolio; long-term view; some losses already reversing in Q3.

    Potential for accelerated capital needs for Assured Life ReNear-term

    could put a little bit of strain in our original projection of capital

    Mitigation: Capital allocation based on opportunistic basis, evaluating all alternatives, prioritizing high-ROE growth opportunities.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Assured Life Re capital needs

    Next quarter
    Currentcould put a little bit of strain in our original projection of capital
    TargetCapital needs met without impacting buybacks or other growth initiatives.

    Why it matters

    The acceleration of Assured Life Re bookings could require more upfront capital, potentially affecting capital allocation decisions between growth and shareholder returns.

    So that could put a little bit of strain in our original projection of capital. And as we said, we're living capital based on an opportunistic basis. We evaluate all alternatives.

    Q&A highlights

    5

    How does increased volatility in CLO returns affect the strategy for higher-yielding alternative investments, and what is the expected impact of Q2 CLO marks on Q3 results given the reporting lag?

    Management views alternative investments as a diversified basket, not solely CLOs. They acknowledge market fluctuations but maintain a long-term view, noting that some Q2 CLO losses are already reversing in Q3. They remain comfortable with the strategy and the 12% inception-to-date IRR.

    Everything is going to happen is a good day and it's bad day. Most markets or at least some markets will have the ability to reverse and we've seen already activity in the large one that we took the loss in this quarter already reversing in next quarter because we booked it on a quarter lag or reversing some of it.

    asked by Unknown Analyst · answered by Dominic Frederico

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Record Valuation Metrics and Capital Strength

    Assured Guaranty reported record per share valuation metrics at the end of Q2 2026, with adjusted operating shareholders' equity reaching $129.94 and adjusted book value at $189.72. These achievements reflect successful execution of strategic initiatives and were underscored by S&P, KBRA, and Moody's affirming the financial strength ratings of its financial guarantee insurance subsidiaries with stable outlooks, citing excellent capital and earnings, exceptional liquidity, and a strong competitive position.

    02

    Robust New Business Production

    The company generated $152 million in PVP during the first half of 2026, marking a 48% increase over the first half of 2025. This growth was primarily driven by strong activity in U.S. public finance, which contributed $106 million in PVP, and global structured finance, which saw PVP increase to $35 million from $15 million in the prior year. The company remains the top provider of municipal bond insurance, insuring $9.6 billion of new issue par across 423 transactions, including 17 transactions of $100 million or more.

    03

    Strategic Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    Assured Guaranty continues to evaluate capital deployment opportunities, balancing growth investments in its financial guarantee and annuity reinsurance platforms with shareholder returns. In Q2 2026, the company repurchased 554,000 shares for $45 million at an average price of $80.68 per share and returned $17 million in dividends. Since 2013, total share repurchases amount to $6 billion, representing 81% of shares outstanding at the program's inception, alongside a quarterly dividend increase from $0.10 to $0.38 per share.

    04

    Annuity Reinsurance and International Expansion

    The Assured Life Re platform is progressing well, with the company comfortable about meeting production and income milestones. Management noted potential for accelerated bookings, which could require more upfront capital. Concurrently, Assured Guaranty is focused on expanding its financial guarantee business in Europe and the Asia Pacific region, complementing its strong U.S. municipal business and aiming for greater revenue diversification, with a strong pipeline expected for the second half of 2026.

    05

    Investment Portfolio Performance and Credit Exposures

    The alternative investment portfolio maintained an inception-to-date IRR of approximately 12%, significantly outperforming the 3-year average yield of 4.3% on the fixed maturity portfolio, despite a $19 million mark-to-market loss on a CLO equity fund in Q2. The company continues to proactively manage its Brightline transaction exposure, which experienced economic loss development but did not impact adjusted operating income due to sufficient deferred premium revenue. No significant developments were reported regarding Thames Water exposure.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.