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    ALHC
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    Alignment Healthcare Q4 FY25 earnings call ALHC

    Feb 26, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Alignment Healthcare Q4 FY25 — Strong Profitability and Ex-California Growth

    Alignment Healthcare delivered a strong Q4 FY25, exceeding profitability guidance and demonstrating significant margin expansion for the full year, driven by membership growth and operational efficiency. The company is confident in its clinically-led model to navigate a challenging reimbursement environment, including the final phase-in of V28 and utilization pressures. Strategic investments in ex-California markets and AI workflows are planned to sustain growth and scalability, with a focus on disciplined expansion and long-term embedded earnings potential.

    Highlights

    5
    • Health plan membership grew 25% year-over-year to 236,300 in Q4 FY25.

    • Total revenue reached $1 billion in Q4 FY25, a 44% year-over-year increase.

    • Adjusted EBITDA for FY25 was $110 million, representing a 270 basis points margin expansion year-over-year.

    • FY25 adjusted gross profit of $495 million resulted in an MBR of 87.5%, an improvement of 130 basis points year-over-year.

    • Ex-California membership more than doubled in FY25, reaching 38,000 members and representing 16% of total membership.

    Concerns

    3
    • The 2027 advance rate notice indicated a relatively flat rate environment for the industry, with a 0.9% net increase, which is below the industry's trend expectations.

    • New member mix in 2026 is disproportionately represented by LIS dual eligible and C-SNP eligible members, which typically join with higher MBRs in year 1.

    • The company does not incorporate any assumption for sweep pickup from new members in its initial 2026 guidance, which was a $14 million benefit in FY25.

    Guidance & targets

    10
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Full-year 2026 Health plan membership
    292,000 to 298,000 members
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Revenue
    $5.14 billion to $5.19 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Adjusted gross profit
    $615 million to $650 million
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Adjusted EBITDA
    $133 million to $163 million
    high materiality
    High
    Q1 2026 Health plan membership
    281,000 to 285,000 members
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2026 Revenue
    $1.21 billion to $1.23 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2026 Adjusted gross profit
    $138 million to $148 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Q1 2026 Adjusted EBITDA
    $26 million to $36 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 Adjusted SG&A as percentage of revenue
    Further improvement
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year 2026 MBR seasonality
    Modestly lower in H1, slightly higher in H2 compared to full year average
    low materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    19
    Health plan membership
    236,30025% year-over-year growth
    Q4 FY25

    Reported for the fourth quarter 2025.

    Adjusted gross profit
    $125 million
    Q4 FY25

    Exceeded the high end of guidance.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $11 millionsolidly surpassed guidance range of negative $9 million to negative $1 million
    Q4 FY25

    Exceeded the high end of guidance.

    Adjusted gross profit
    $495 million
    FY25

    Full year result.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $110 millionfrom $1 million in 2024
    FY25

    Represents a significant transformation in profitability.

    Adjusted EBITDA margin
    2.8%270 basis points margin expansion year-over-year
    FY25

    Full year result.

    Ex-California membership
    38,000more than doubled
    December 2025

    Demonstrates replicability of the model beyond California.

    Health plan membership
    275,30031% growth year-over-year
    January 2026

    Results from 2026 AEP.

    California membership growth
    23%
    AEP 2026

    Growth across California counties during AEP.

    Ex-California membership growth
    over 80%
    AEP 2026

    Rapid expansion outside of California during AEP.

    AEP voluntary disenrollment improvement
    nearly 20%
    AEP 2026

    Result of focused growth strategy.

    Gross sales from plan switchers
    approximately 80%
    AEP 2026

    Indicates effective sales strategy targeting switchers.

    GAAP SG&A
    $443 million
    FY25

    Full year 2025 GAAP SG&A.

    Adjusted SG&A
    $385 million28% increase year-over-year
    FY25

    Full year 2025 adjusted SG&A.

    Adjusted SG&A as percentage of revenue
    9.7%declined from 11.1% in 2024, representing an improvement of approximately 140 basis points
    FY25

    Demonstrates operating expense scale economies.

    Cash and investments balance
    $604 million
    FY25

    Ended the year with strong cash position.

    Inpatient admissions per 1,000
    low 40s
    Q4 FY25

    Result of proactive care approach.

    HCC value derived from chart reviews
    approximately 1%
    current

    Indicates limited exposure to potential changes in risk score calculations related to unlinked chart reviews.

    Care Anywhere member engagement
    about 65%about the same year-to-year
    current

    Opportunity for improvement in member engagement.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Utilization trendslow 40sadmissions per 1,000
    Stars rate environment100%%
    Medical loss care ratio87.5%%
    Client retention new winsnearly 20%%
    Membership covered lives by line236,300members
    Adjusted EPS EBITDA leverage guidance$110 millionUSD
    Medical cost trend vs pricing assumption0.9%%

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Undisclosed banksRevolving credit facility$200 million

    Announced subsequent to the quarter end, this facility is for 'good housekeeping' and supports organic growth objectives.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    2027 Advance Rate Notice impactFY27

    0.9% net increase for the industry

    Mitigation: Company's strong clinically-led model and core medical cost management competency enables it to win in any rate environment; 100% of members in 4 stars or above plans for 2027.

    V28 Risk Model Phase-inFY26

    Third and final phase-in in 2026

    Mitigation: Proactive care approach and strong outcomes in medical cost categories, disciplined growth strategy, and bid assumptions.

    New member mix with higher MBRsFY26

    New member mix disproportionately represented by LIS dual eligible and C-SNP eligible members, who typically join with higher MBRs in year 1.

    Mitigation: Caring for these complex members is core to the clinical model, with long-term opportunity and embedded value.

    Exclusion of sweep pickup from 2026 guidanceFY26

    Sweep pickup was a benefit of approximately $14 million to full year adjusted gross profit and EBITDA in 2025.

    Mitigation: Management consciously chose not to incorporate this assumption in initial guidance, reflecting a conservative approach.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    4

    Care Anywhere member engagement

    ongoing
    Currentabout 65%
    Target75%

    Why it matters

    Increased engagement with the Care Anywhere platform is crucial for improving clinical outcomes and driving medical cost management efficiency.

    I think we were still at about 65%, which really isn't bad. But I think we've set a target internally we're trying to get to 75%.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Given Alignment's strong performance in a flat rate environment over the past two years, what would prevent a similar rerun of success in 2027, especially if rates remain flat?

    CEO John Kao expressed confidence that the model will work irrespective of rate changes, noting that a flat or slightly increased rate environment could be favorable. He emphasized disciplined growth, durable provider relationships, and continuous internal improvements in operations, clinical care, and AI deployment to strengthen the company for future growth.

    Well, Michael, this is John. You should probably expect my response to be, we feel very comfortable with the 20% growth rate No, we feel good. I mean the model is working, and it will work irrespective of what happens in the rate universe.

    asked by Michael Ha · answered by John Kao

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Clinical Model Resilience and Profitability Maturation

    Alignment Healthcare demonstrated the strategic and operational advantages of its clinically centric model in FY25, transforming from near breakeven in adjusted EBITDA in 2024 to $110 million in 2025. This was achieved despite significant industry disruption🌐, including the V28 risk model phase-in, Part D program redesign, and broad utilization pressures. The company's model, focused on delivering high-quality care at lower costs, enabled margin expansion while competitors faced challenges, reinforcing confidence in its ability to win in any rate environment.

    02

    Ex-California Market Expansion and Star Ratings Success

    The company successfully replicated its model beyond California, more than doubling ex-California membership to 38,000 members by December 2025, representing 16% of total membership. This growth was driven by leading with quality, evidenced by a 5-star plan in North Carolina for the third consecutive year, two 5-star plans in Nevada, a 4.5-star plan in Texas, and a 4-star plan in Arizona. The portability of the Care Anywhere clinical model and scalability of health plan operations are key to unlocking growth potential in these markets.

    03

    2026 AEP Results and Responsible Growth Strategy

    Alignment Healthcare grew to 275,300 health plan members in January 2026, a 31% year-over-year increase, with 23% growth in California and over 80% growth in ex-California counties. The company focused on responsible growth through bid design and sales strategy, achieving a nearly 20% improvement in AEP voluntary disenrollment and sourcing approximately 80% of gross sales from plan switchers. This balanced approach aims to capitalize on growth opportunities while managing the impact of the final V28 phase-in.

    04

    2027 Advance Rate Notice and Regulatory Environment

    Management views the 2027 advance rate notice, indicating a 0.9% net increase, as consistent with CMS's focus on program integrity and aligning payments with underlying costs. The company's exposure to unlinked chart reviews is limited (approximately 1% of total HCC value), and it believes its strong clinically-led model and medical cost management competency will allow it to thrive. The current environment is seen as creating a more level playing field, allowing Alignment's distinct care management model to shine.

    05

    AI Investments and Operational Efficiency

    The company plans targeted investments in AI workflows to improve administrative efficiency and enhance its clinical model and new market playbook. Efforts are focused on establishing a unified data architecture and documenting end-to-end workflows to ensure scalable and abrasion-free growth. Potential AI use cases include refining stratification models for Care Anywhere members, improving member services, and leveraging AI for financial reporting and actionable conclusions market by market, with an internal target to increase Care Anywhere engagement from 65% to 75%.

    06

    Capital Structure and Free Cash Flow Generation

    Alignment Healthcare generated positive free cash flow in 2025, ending the year with $604 million in cash and investments. Subsequent to the quarter, the company closed a $200 million revolving credit facility, described as 'good housekeeping' and not expected to be drawn on in the near term. The increasing positive free cash flow position is intended to support organic growth objectives and further mature the capital structure.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.