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    ASTH
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    Astrana Health Q2 FY26 earnings call ASTH

    Aug 6, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Astrana Health Q2 FY26 — Strong Performance, Raised EBITDA Guidance, and Accelerated Deleveraging

    Astrana Health delivered a strong second quarter, driven by accelerating demand, effective medical cost management, and expanding operating leverage from its AI-native platform. The company raised its full-year adjusted EBITDA guidance while reinvesting a significant portion of its outperformance into strategic growth opportunities. Management emphasized the scalability of its payer-agnostic care model and continued progress in full-risk arrangements, alongside proactive portfolio rebalancing in Medi-Cal.

    Highlights

    5
    • Revenue grew 49% year-over-year to $973 million in Q2 FY26.

    • Adjusted EBITDA increased 43% year-over-year to $69 million in Q2 FY26, near the high end of guidance.

    • Adjusted diluted EPS reached a record high $0.80, up 45% year-over-year.

    • Net leverage declined to 2.26x on a trailing 12-month basis, surpassing the 2.5x goal ahead of schedule.

    • Free cash flow totaled $93 million in H1 FY26, representing approximately 69% conversion of adjusted EBITDA.

    Concerns

    3
    • A one-time $15 million revenue reduction related to CMS' adjustments for ACO REACH 2025 billing activity.

    • Commercial medical cost trend ran slightly above expectations in Q2 FY26.

    • Medicaid attrition is tracking towards the high end of expectations.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $65 million to $70 million
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year Adjusted EBITDA
    $255 million to $280 million
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year Revenue
    $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year Free Cash Flow
    $105 million to $132.5 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year G&A as % of revenue
    approximately 6%
    medium materiality
    High
    Q3 2026 Revenue
    $1 billion and $1.03 billion
    medium materiality
    High
    Q3 2026 Adjusted EBITDA
    $72.5 million and $77.5 million
    medium materiality
    High
    Medium-term EBITDA growth
    mid- to high teens
    high materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    29
    Revenue
    $973 millionup 49% year-over-year
    Q2 FY26

    Driven by organic growth in Care Partners segment, Prospect acquisition, and ramp-up of full-risk contracts.

    Adjusted EBITDA
    $69 millionup 43% year-over-year
    Q2 FY26

    Near the high end of guidance range, reflecting controlled trend and strong performance.

    Adjusted diluted EPS
    $0.80up 45% year-over-year
    Q2 FY26

    Reached a record high.

    Free cash flow conversion
    approximately 69%
    H1 FY26

    Reflects strong cash generation.

    Net leverage
    2.26x
    Q2 FY26

    Declined ahead of schedule, surpassing the 2.5x goal within 24 months.

    Gross leverage
    3.8xdown from 4.2x at the end of Q1
    Q2 FY26

    Reduced by retiring debt.

    Cash balance
    $401 million
    Q2 FY26

    Strong cash position at quarter end.

    Net debt
    $579 million
    Q2 FY26

    Balance at quarter end.

    Debt retired
    $92 million
    Q2 FY26

    Used strong cash generation to reduce debt.

    G&A as % of revenue improvement
    210year-over-year
    Q2 FY26

    Driven by AI-powered workflows and operating leverage.

    Operating expense synergies (Prospect)
    high end
    Annual

    Systematic integration of Prospect onto Astrana's operating system.

    Gross provider retention
    above 99%
    Past year

    Reflects successful integration of Prospect.

    Medical cost trend (overall)
    slightly bettervs. 5.2% full-year assumption
    YTD FY26

    Reflects disciplined management and AI-enabled interventions.

    Medical cost trend (Medicare Advantage and Original Medicare)
    favorablerelative to expectations
    YTD FY26

    Performing well relative to expectations.

    Medical cost trend (Medicaid)
    in linerelative to expectations
    YTD FY26

    Tracking in line with expectations, inclusive of potential adverse selection.

    Medical cost trend (Commercial)
    slightly aboverelative to expectations
    Q2 FY26

    Concentrated in some outpatient specialties, but manageable.

    Members in value-based arrangements
    approximately 1.5 million
    Q2 FY26 end

    Reflects continued growth and portfolio management.

    Capitation revenue from full-risk arrangements
    81%
    Q2 FY26 end

    Reflects prudent progression into full-risk opportunities.

    Membership from full-risk arrangements
    42%
    Q2 FY26 end

    Reflects prudent progression into full-risk opportunities.

    Medicare Advantage professional risk lives added
    approximately 3,000
    Q2 FY26

    New members added with a payer that selected Astrana as its risk partner.

    MSSP ACO ranking
    7thout of 476 ACOs nationwide
    2024 performance year

    Flagship ACO demonstrating strong performance.

    ACO REACH ranking
    top 15%nationally
    2024 performance year

    Flagship entity demonstrating strong performance.

    AI-powered workflows handling time reduction
    more than 50%
    Past 12 months

    Contributed to operating leverage and G&A improvement.

    AI-powered workflows capacity creation
    approximately 60
    Past 12 months

    Equivalent operational capacity created by AI.

    Medicare Advantage risk scores
    approximately 1.0
    Current

    Believed to be lower than the average for Medicare Advantage, indicating upside for appropriate coding.

    Automated member encounters
    over 500,000
    per month

    Includes voice interactions, scheduling, text messages, medication reconciliation, and notifications, extending care reach.

    Reinvestment in growth opportunities
    mid- to high single-digit millions
    FY26

    Deliberately chosen to allocate outperformance into growth, including new contracts and provider partnerships.

    Medi-Cal members transitioning to full-risk
    tens of thousands
    next 12 months

    Strategic rebalancing from professional risk arrangements to full-risk in response to state program changes.

    Revenue reduction (ACO REACH)
    $15 million
    2025 performance year

    One-time reduction, with immaterial net impact to EBITDA due to corresponding expense reduction.

    Industry KPIs

    5
    MetricValueDetails
    Utilization trendsslightly better
    Client retention new winsabove 99%%
    Membership covered lives by lineapproximately 1.5 millionmembers
    Adjusted EPS EBITDA leverage guidance$69 millionUSD
    Medical cost trend vs pricing assumptionslightly better

    Deals & partnerships

    6
    Payer partnersNew Medicare Advantage agreements

    Signed new Medicare Advantage agreements in Hawaii and Texas, and expanded existing relationships in California.

    Physician partnersNew physician partnerships

    Planned new physician partnerships in the South and on the East Coast to strengthen Care Delivery capabilities.

    UndisclosedStrategic tuck-in acquisitions

    Disciplined strategic tuck-in acquisitions within expansion markets to further strengthen Care Delivery capabilities.

    Large national payerDelegated full-risk partnership

    Delegated full-risk partnership in Texas, now 2 full quarters into operation.

    Payer partnerAdded Medicare Advantage professional risk lives

    Added approximately 3,000 new Medicare Advantage professional risk lives in Texas with a selected risk partner.

    Health plan partnersRebalancing Medi-Cal businessover the next 12 months

    Transitioning tens of thousands of Medi-Cal members from professional risk arrangements into full-risk arrangements in California in response to state program changes.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Medicaid-related attritioncurrent

    tracking towards the high end of expectations

    Mitigation: Contemplated in guidance; strategic rebalancing of Medi-Cal business to full-risk arrangements.

    Commercial medical cost trendQ2 FY26

    slightly above expectations in Q2 FY26

    Mitigation: Management is confident in ability to manage trends through clinical and operational levers; commercial is a single-digit percentage of revenue.

    One-time revenue reduction from CMS ACO REACH adjustments2025 performance year (impact recognized Q2 FY26)

    $15 million

    Mitigation: Net impact to EBITDA is immaterial due to corresponding expense reduction; full-year revenue guidance reaffirmed.

    Adverse selection in Medicaidcurrent

    in line with expectations

    Mitigation: Contemplated in guidance.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Medicaid attrition

    next quarter
    Currenttracking towards the high end of expectations
    Targetstabilization or improvement

    Why it matters

    Medicaid attrition impacts membership and the company's margin profile, especially with ongoing redeterminations.

    And in Medicaid, we continue to see attrition tracking towards the high end of our expectations, while adverse selection continues to be in line with expectations as we shared last quarter.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    What are the current cost trends, especially for commercial, and were any segment trends revised?

    Overall medical cost trend year-to-date is slightly better than the 5.2% assumption. Medicare Advantage and Original Medicare are favorable, Medicaid is in line, and commercial is slightly above expectations but manageable, with no anticipated changes to guidance.

    Year-to-date, overall trend is tracking slightly better than our guided 5.2% assumption blended across the business. By line of business, Medicare Advantage and original Medicare are slightly favorable to our overall trend. Medicaid is in line with that trend number... And commercial, as I mentioned earlier, was slightly above.

    asked by Matthew Mardula · answered by Brandon Sim

    2 min read5 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    AI-Native Operating System & Operating Leverage

    Astrana Health's AI-native operating system integrates data, workflows, clinical decision-making, and financial accountability across the enterprise, creating a durable competitive advantage. This unified platform enables AI agents to work seamlessly, leading to intelligent automation that scales and creates value. The system has reduced handling time by over 50% in claims operations and referral management, creating operational capacity equivalent to approximately 60 full-time employees over the past 12 months. This efficiency contributed to a 210 basis point year-over-year improvement in G&A as a percentage of revenue in Q2 FY26, with expectations to exit the year at approximately 6%.

    02

    Responsible Growth & Full-Risk Expansion

    The company continues to grow responsibly, balancing growth with profitability by onboarding new cohorts that generate stronger risk-adjusted returns due to the improving AI-native operating system. This allows for accelerating growth without compromising underwriting standards. New Medicare Advantage agreements were signed in Hawaii and Texas, and existing relationships expanded in California. Astrana is also prudently progressing into full-risk arrangements, with 81% of capitation revenue and 42% of membership now from such arrangements, which are performing in line with underwriting expectations. The expansion markets, including a delegated full-risk partnership in Texas, continue to validate the operating model's portability.

    03

    Medical Cost Trend Management

    Astrana manages medical cost trends through better care, utilizing AI to extend clinicians' reach across a larger patient population without compromising quality. Overall medical cost trend year-to-date remains slightly better than the full-year assumption of approximately 5.2%. Medicare Advantage and original Medicare performed favorably, while Medicaid cost trend was in line with expectations. Commercial trend ran slightly above expectations in Q2, but management is confident in its ability to manage these trends. The flagship MSSP ACO ranked 7th out of 476 nationwide, and the ACO REACH entity ranked in the top 15% nationally for net shared savings in 2024.

    04

    Successful Prospect Integration

    One year after closing the Prospect acquisition, Astrana Health has systematically integrated it onto its operating system, unifying clinical operations and embedding proprietary technology. This approach has been validated by gross provider retention remaining above 99% and operating expense synergies tracking at the high end of the $12 million to $15 million annual target. Medical cost trend within the legacy Prospect business is also running slightly ahead of expectations, establishing a strong operational and clinical foundation for future improvement.

    05

    Portfolio Rebalancing & Strategic Investments

    Astrana is actively positioning its portfolio for long-term value creation, including rebalancing portions of its Medi-Cal business in California by transitioning tens of thousands of members from professional risk to full-risk arrangements over the next 12 months. This is a strategic move to align performance with financial outcomes amidst changes in the state's Medicaid program. The company also reinvested a substantial portion of its Q2 outperformance, in the mid- to high single-digit millions, into attractive long-term growth opportunities such as new payer contracts and provider partnerships, aiming to compound earnings power over time.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.