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Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) Q3 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Jul 2025 (Q3 FY25)· Financials· Aug 26, 2025

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Scotiabank Q3 FY25 — Broad-based beat with 15% adjusted EPS growth and normalized credit

Scotiabank's 'value over volume' repositioning is inflecting from optimization toward growth: two years of client deselection and RWA discipline have lifted returns and funded buybacks, and management now frames FY26 as the pivot year for Canadian commercial and International Banking. Market-facing wealth and GBM engines carried the quarter while normalized credit and a strong capital position give room to lean into growth, though unresolved trade uncertainty tempers the near-term outlook.

Highlights

5
  • Adjusted earnings $2.5B / EPS $1.88, up 15% YoY; pretax pre-provision profit up 17% YoY

  • ROE 12.4%, up 110 bps YoY; all-bank NIM expanded 22 bps YoY and 5 bps QoQ

  • Credit normalized: performing PCL build fell to 4 bps ($66M) from Q2's 18 bps, and impaired PCL ratio came in at 51 bps, down 6 bps QoQ

  • GBM earnings $473M, up 29% YoY, on capital-markets revenue up 54%; wealth net sales of $6.2B YTD versus $5B of redemptions a year ago (an $11.2B swing)

  • CET1 13.3% with a 6th straight quarter of positive operating leverage; productivity ratio 53.7%, improved 230 bps YoY

Concerns

5
  • Canadian Banking earnings $959M, down 2% YoY, with YTD operating leverage of negative 2.2%

  • Effective tax rate jumped to 25% from 18.6% on higher withholding taxes and the global minimum tax

  • Trade uncertainty and no Canada-U.S. deal; Canadian consumer stress concentrated in the 18-26 cohort; commercial and mortgage weakness in Mexico

  • GIL formations up 7% QoQ and muted loan growth (GBM loans -14% YoY, IB loans -3% YoY)

  • Management flagged that Q3 trading and IB strength (fixed income ~$432M) is unlikely to be replicated every quarter

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Internal capital generation per quarter
15-20 basis points per quarter
medium materiality
Medium
Other (Corporate) segment net loss
low 40s ($M loss) next quarter
low materiality
Medium
Canadian Banking net interest margin
continued small sequential improvements starting next quarter
medium materiality
Medium
International Banking net interest margin
stable 4.45%-4.50%, improving thereafter (2027 story)
medium materiality
Medium
Canadian Banking operating leverage
positive operating leverage on a sustainable basis, aim into next year
high materiality
Medium
Canadian commercial loan growth
grow in line with the market next year
medium materiality
Medium
International Banking revenue/earnings growth
5% to 7% growth
high materiality
Medium
CET1 ratio
comfortably above 13% next quarter
medium materiality
High
Share buyback (NCIB program)
complete the buyback program as quickly as possible (approval up to 20 million shares)
medium materiality
Medium
FY25 earnings
strong earnings growth in 2025, positioning well into 2026
medium materiality
Low
Signature Banking household conversion (Private Bank)
convert roughly 2x the number of households targeted for this business by year-end
low materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Canadian Banking
Sequential improvement on better credit and 2 bps deposit-mix-driven margin expansion; YoY earnings down as the bank continues to invest. Mix shift toward small business/commercial and multiproduct primacy is the growth lever into FY26.
Average loans: +3% YoY (mortgages +5%, credit cards +1%)Deposits: +2% YoY (personal +2%, nonpersonal +1%)Net interest income: +2% YoYNet interest margin: +2 bps QoQ, -7 bps YoYPCL ratio: 40 bps (+1 bp YoY)Expenses: +4% YoY, +1% QoQOperating leverage: -2.2% YTDRetail savings & day-to-day deposits: +6% YoY
—-2% (earnings)+7% PTPP QoQEarnings $959M; PTPP in line YoY
Global Wealth Management
Strength across Asset Management, Private Banking and International Wealth; AUM/AUA growth driven by market appreciation and higher net sales. Positioned as the 'glue' of all-bank client primacy.
Spot AUM: $407B, +12% YoYAUA: over $750B, +9% YoYExpenses: +11% YoYOperating leverage: +1.9% YTDInternational Wealth Management earnings: $64M (Mexico, Peru, Chile)Mexico asset growth: +18% YoYCanadian advisory net sales: ~+85% YoYBranch mutual fund AUM: +11% YoY, +7% sequentially
+12% YoY+13% (earnings)—Earnings $424M (Canadian +13%, International WM +21%)
Global Banking and Markets
Record IB year and robust trading; balance sheet down 14% YoY while fee income and ROE (+310 bps) rose. Management expects durability but not exact replication each quarter. Canada #2 in DCM league tables YTD; U.S. IG DCM share at new highs.
Capital markets revenue: +54% YoYNet interest income: +15% YoYLoan balances: -14% YoYNoninterest income: +$220M / +23% YoYExpenses: +16% YoYOperating leverage: +5.9% YTDU.S. share of GBM earnings: 42% in Q3Fixed income trading revenue: ~$432MUnderwriting & advisory fees: +28% YTD; trading revenues +50% YTD
+21% YoY+29% (earnings)+5% revenue QoQEarnings $473M
International Banking
Ahead of Investor Day commitments on optimization and cost discipline; deselection largely complete with a 2026 pivot to wallet-share-led growth. Mexico is the key growth engine but its economy is contracting ~1.5%; some commercial/mortgage weakness there.
Net interest margin: 4.54%, +13 bps YoYNII: +3% YoY; noninterest income: +3% YoYDeposits: flat YoYLoans: -3% YoY (business -8%, retail +3%)PCL: $562M, 139 bps (stable)Expenses: flat YoY and QoQOperating leverage: +1.8% YTDEffective tax rate: 23.6% (up from 19.5% in Q2)IB Global Banking & Markets earnings: $313M, +12% YoYROE: 15%, +180 bps YoY
+3% YoY (adjusted, constant dollar)+7% (earnings)+1% QoQEarnings $675M; YTD earnings +1%
Other (Corporate)
Improvement driven by lower funding costs; strategy allocates funding costs to business lines for accurate pricing and primacy, keeping the segment stable and low rather than volatile.
Revenue driver: lower funding costsNext-quarter guide: loss in the low 40s ($M)
+$81M vs Q2—+$24M improvement QoQAdjusted net loss $56M

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
AskAI internal chatbotmilestone
U.S. modern cash-management offeringlaunch
Signature Banking initiative (Private Bank)launch

Deals & partnerships

Credit Scotia (Peru) divestiture

Sale of Credit Scotia in Peru cited by the CRO as helping international retail credit performance alongside primacy/collections focus.

Scene+ program partners loyalty partnership

Working with Scene+ partners to extract data and target the right product to the right customer over time.

Risks & headwinds

U.S.-Canada trade uncertainty / no trade deal near term / ongoing

Prompted an 18 bps performing PCL build in Q2 (since normalized to 4 bps); ongoing macro overhang, unquantified this quarter

Mitigation:Conservative capital and reserve posture; over $470M performing allowances built YTD, total ACL ratio 96 bps

Canadian consumer stress ongoing

Pockets of weakness concentrated in the 18-26 age cohort; 90-day+ mortgage delinquency steady at 24 bps with fixed-rate renewal payment shock offsetting variable-rate improvement

Mitigation:Surgical originations, enhanced collections; some green shoots (retail sales +2.3% in Q2, discretionary spend improving)

Mexico commercial and mortgage weakness ongoing

Higher impaired PCLs in Mexico mortgages; Mexican economy contracting ~1.5% in 2025

Mitigation:CRO and IB head spending significant time with local teams; positive on Chile/Peru, constructive on Mexico

Toronto/Vancouver housing and condo market dynamics monitoring

No material impact to credit performance observed to date

Mitigation:Ongoing monitoring of housing/condo market dynamics

Prime auto vintage seasoning (2022/2023 used-car originations) medium term

'Almost halfway or more' through the vintage burn-down; drove lower Q3 impaired retail PCLs

Mitigation:Collections efforts and natural aging of vintages; management believes 'the worst is past us' on the auto book but not definitively

Gross impaired loan (GIL) formations rising near term

GIL formations up 7% QoQ (Canadian commercial, Mexico); GBM GILs improved

Mitigation:Forecasts do not show translation into higher PCLs; management confident of digesting formations without higher FY26 losses

Effective tax-rate increase ongoing

Effective tax rate rose to 25% from 18.6% YoY

Mitigation:Result of deliberate capital optimization in foreign jurisdictions; withholding-tax hit lands in the Other segment

Capital-markets / trading cyclicality quarter to quarter

Fixed-income trading of ~$432M and record IB fees benefited from volatility; unlikely to repeat every quarter

Mitigation:New initiatives to reduce volatility and build a more durable franchise so elevated levels become 'more of the norm'

Non-retail (commercial) impaired provisions ongoing

Canadian commercial impaired PCLs up $37M QoQ on higher formations; can be lumpy

Mitigation:Clients adjusting to shifting trade dynamics; weakness described as isolated and contained, no widespread deterioration

Q&A highlights

Given a 13.3% CET1, cheap valuation and progress toward a 14% ROE, will management lean more aggressively into buybacks, and is sub-13% CET1 an absolute no?

Raj called 13.3% very strong (200+ bps added over two years), ordered capital deployment as organic growth > credit-migration buffer > buybacks, and said the bank has NCIB room for 20M shares and will complete the program as quickly as market conditions allow. He would not commit to operating below 13% now, expecting to stay comfortably above 13% next quarter, deferring 2026 comfort levels to the Q4 call.

“having great buffers over 11.5% is a fantastic position to be in to grow from”

asked by Ebrahim Poonawala · answered by Rajagopal Viswanathan

4 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Balance-sheet optimization: value over volume

Over the past 24 months Scotiabank repositioned the balance sheet by cross-selling and rightsizing lending relationships, deliberately accepting lower loan growth to improve ROE, capital capacity and liquidity. The all-bank loan-to-deposit ratio improved to 104% in Q3 2025 from 116% in Q4 2022, and wholesale funding to total assets fell 280 bps to 18.8% from 21.6%.

Canadian commercial loan growth is flat yet revenue rose 16% YTD and PTPP is up 25%; GBM loans fell 14% YoY while PTPP rose 29% and ROE improved 310 bps. Management says the optimization phase is largely complete and expects increased-but-profitable loan growth next year.

Credit normalization after a conservative Q2

All-bank PCLs were ~$1B or 55 bps, down $357M QoQ. Performing provisions fell $280M to $66M (4 bps) after Q2's elevated 18 bps tariff-driven build, and impaired provisions were $975M (51 bps), down 6 bps QoQ. Canadian retail drove the improvement — impaired retail PCLs of $315M (34 bps) fell 11 bps on aging 2022/2023 prime-auto vintages ('the pig moving through the python') and lower net write-offs. 90-day+ mortgage delinquency held at 24 bps for a third straight quarter.

YTD the bank built over $470M in performing allowances; total ACL ratio is 96 bps. Management remains cautious given trade uncertainty and Mexican weakness.

GBM and capital-markets strength

Global Banking and Markets delivered earnings of $473M, up 29% YoY, with revenue up 21% and capital-markets revenue up 54%. Trading-related revenues rose ~50% YTD and underwriting/advisory fees grew 28% YTD, aided by a record year in investment banking and record-high M&A fees in 2025.

The U.S. contributed 42% of GBM earnings and continues to reach new highs in investment-grade DCM market share; in Canada GBM ranks #2 YTD in DCM league tables. GBM also launched its first U.S. mortgage capital-markets funding transaction. Management cautioned that not every quarter will replicate this one but is building a more durable franchise.

International Banking pivot to growth

IB delivered adjusted constant-dollar earnings of $675M, up 7% YoY, with revenue up 3%, NIM expanded 13 bps YoY, and expenses flat despite inflation. Since Q4 2023 IB PTPP rose 22% and ROE improved 360 bps; International GBM loans fell ~$9B while earnings rose ~$76M (32%).

Client deselection — concentrated in mass-market retail and commercial — is 'pretty much done'; mass-market acquisition is running ~20% lower while affluent/emerging-affluent/top-of-mass segments grow faster. Management frames 2026 as the pivot-to-growth year, wallet-share led, holding a ~2% return-on-RWA discipline. Mexico is the key growth engine but its economy is contracting ~1.5% this year.

Wealth management momentum and primacy

Global Wealth Management earnings rose 13% YoY to $424M with revenue up 12%; spot AUM grew 12% YoY to $407B and AUA grew 9% to over $750B. Collective wealth-channel net sales were $6.2B YTD versus $5B of redemptions a year earlier — an $11.2B swing — while retail investment-advice net sales reached $1.7B YTD (vs $900M net redemptions).

Canadian advisory net sales are up ~85% YoY; International Wealth earnings rose 21% YoY with record earnings in Mexican wealth. Wealth is positioned as the 'glue' of the all-bank client-primacy strategy, with $11B of cross-referrals YTD (+13%).

Capital, buybacks and internal generation

CET1 ended at 13.3%, up 10 bps QoQ, with 13 bps of internal capital generation and a 4 bps OCI-securities gain partly offset by 5 bps allocated to buying back 3.2 million shares. The bank has added over 200 bps of capital in two years and has NCIB approval for up to 20 million shares.

Capital-deployment priorities are organic growth first, credit-migration buffer second, and buybacks third; management expects to remain comfortably above 13% next quarter and targets 15-20 bps of quarterly internal capital generation into FY26. RWA rose $4B to $463B.

AI, GTB and North American cash management

Scotiabank completed the rollout of its AskAI internal LLM chatbot to all Canadian retail branches and client-experience centres, while its external AI chatbot handles over 125,000 inquiries monthly. On global transaction banking, the pipeline has grown 5x over the past year; the bank piloted and, as of October 1, fully rolled out a modern U.S. cash-management offering to connect its North American corridor — leveraging its universal-bank footprint (including multinational payroll at scale) as a differentiator versus traditional cash-management providers.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.