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British American Tobacco (BTI) Q2 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Jun 2025 (Q2 FY25)· Consumer Staples· Jul 31, 2025

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

British American Tobacco H1 FY25 — U.S. returns to growth, Modern Oral momentum builds

A deployment-year inflection: after two years of decline the largest profit pool has re-inflected on both revenue and profit, while a maturing multi-category smokeless portfolio led by Modern Oral shifts mix toward higher-margin, faster-payback growth. Management is deliberately holding profit guidance to reinvest H2 behind premium launches (glo Hilo, Vuse Ultra, Velo), positioning for a 2026 return to the medium-term algorithm despite the Bangladesh and Australia drags still masking underlying momentum.

Highlights

5
  • Group revenue +1.8% (constant currency) at the upper end of the 1%-2% range; adjusted profit from operations +1.9% and adjusted diluted EPS +1.7% (162.1p) — slightly ahead of expectations, prompting a raise of full-year revenue to the top end of guidance

  • U.S. returned to both revenue (+3.7%) and profit (+3.2%) growth for the first time since 2022, with combustibles revenue +3.8% and total volume share +10 bps / value share +20 bps

  • Modern Oral revenue +40%; U.S. Velo Plus delivered >380% Modern Oral revenue growth and reached 17%+ volume share by July, #2 in 11 states including New York and Texas

  • New category contribution margin +280 bps to 10.6% and gross margin +250 bps; smokeless now 18.2% of group revenue (+70 bps) with 1.4M new consumers taking the base to 30.5M

  • Capital returns stepped up — 2025 buyback raised GBP 200M to GBP 1.1 billion (GBP 650M in H2); GBP 17 billion returned to shareholders over three years while continuing to deleverage

Concerns

4
  • APMEA revenue -4.8% and adjusted operating profit -12.3%, driven by fiscal/regulatory headwinds in Bangladesh and Australia (combustibles -7.9%)

  • Vapour revenue -13% group-wide (U.S. vapour -12.3%) on illicit single-use products in the U.S. and Canada; no legal-vapour recovery assumed in 2025 guidance

  • APFO guidance held at 1.5%-2.5% despite the top-line raise, reflecting increased H2 new-category investment and a stronger U.S. combustibles comparator in H2

  • GBP 166M of inflation absorbed in H1 and a ~1% transactional FX headwind on adjusted operating profit (FY guide 1%-1.5%); underlying volume decline and consumer wallet pressure persist

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year 2025 group revenue growth
Top end of 1%-2% (constant currency)
high materiality
High
Full-year 2025 adjusted profit from operations (APFO) growth
1.5%-2.5% (constant currency)
high materiality
High
Full-year 2025 new category revenue growth
Mid-single digits
medium materiality
Medium
Full-year 2025 underlying effective tax rate
~25%
low materiality
Medium
Full-year 2025 transactional FX headwind
1%-1.5% on adjusted operating profit
low materiality
Medium
2025 share buyback
GBP 1.1 billion (GBP 650M in H2)
high materiality
High
Cumulative productivity savings by year-end 2025
Exceed GBP 1.2 billion
medium materiality
High
Incremental cost of goods sold savings by 2030
GBP 2 billion
medium materiality
Medium
Fit2Win annualized cost savings by end-2028
~GBP 500 million (annualized)
medium materiality
Medium
Cumulative free cash flow by 2030
More than GBP 50 billion
high materiality
Medium
Medium-term revenue growth algorithm
3%-5%
high materiality
Medium
Medium-term operating profit growth algorithm
4%-6%
high materiality
Medium
Net debt/EBITDA leverage corridor by end-2026
2.5x to 2x
high materiality
Medium
Velo Plus U.S. category contribution FY2025
Positive category contribution
medium materiality
High
U.S. Modern Oral category size (2-year outlook)
Almost double (from ~GBP 2 billion)
low materiality
Medium
2026 revenue and adjusted profit growth
3%-5% revenue / 4%-6% APFO (return to algorithm)
high materiality
Medium

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
United States (geography)
Returned to both revenue and profit growth for the first time since 2022, led by combustibles as it laps last year's investment cycle; Velo Plus offset by Vuse headwinds and launch investment.
Combustibles revenue: +3.8%New category revenue: +3.9%Total volume share: +10 bpsValue share: +20 bpsEx-deep-discount volume share: +60 bpsVelo Plus Modern Oral revenue growth: >380%Vapour (Vuse) revenue: -12.3%
—+3.7%—Adjusted profit +3.2%
AME — Americas & Europe (geography)
Strong Brazil/Turkey combustibles volumes and pricing; profit well ahead of revenue on operating leverage, new-category scale, resource allocation and Canada accounting treatment; offsets from illicit vapour in Canada and single-use-ban dynamics; Heated growth in Poland/Portugal offset by resource-allocation exits in Czech Republic, Germany, Romania.
Combustibles revenue: ~+3%New category revenue: +1.3%Modern Oral revenue: ~+17%Velo volume share (top markets): 63%
—+3.5%—Adjusted operating profit >+10%
APMEA — Asia-Pacific, Middle East & Africa (geography)
Fiscal and regulatory headwinds in Bangladesh and Australia outweighed good performances in Pakistan and Nigeria; new categories driven by Heated Products in Japan and Modern Oral in emerging markets, offset by strategic vapour market exits (e.g. Malaysia).
Combustibles revenue: -7.9%New category revenue: +2.5%
—-4.8%—Adjusted operating profit -12.3%
New Categories (business line)
Quality growth from targeted high-value-market investment, ROI discipline and scale; FY new-category revenue growth expected to move into mid-single digits. Vapour decline mainly illicit trade in U.S. and Canada.
Modern Oral revenue: +40%Heated Products revenue: +3%Vapour revenue: -13%
—+2.4%—Contribution margin 10.6% (+280 bps); gross margin +250 bps
Combustibles (business line)
Volume decline more than offset by strong global pricing; helped by U.S. strength, favorable price/mix, and productivity/simplification gains; U.S. combustibles returned to growth for the first time since 2022.
Volume: declined, more than offset by pricingPrice/mix: strong healthy uplift globally
—+0.8%—Gross profit +2.4%; contribution +2.2%

Deals & partnerships

Accenture Strategic partnership — outsourcing of global shared services

BAT transitions its global shared services to Accenture, gaining access to Accenture's technology ecosystem and Agentic AI solutions; in return BAT strengthens Accenture's global supply-chain and operations capabilities.

Microsoft Strategic technology partnership

Enabled rapid build of BAT's enterprise data platform via MS Fabric and next-gen technologies, advancing global data infrastructure.

ITC Limited (India) Divestiture — partial sale of ITC investment GBP 900M gain

Partial monetization of BAT's stake in ITC; recorded within reported (not adjusted constant-currency) numbers.

ITC Hotels (India) Divestiture — intended sale of hotel-chain stake

BAT does not intend to remain a hotel shareholder; unlocking the shares requires Indian central-bank and forum approvals tied to shareholdings dating to the early 1900s, which are taking time.

Capital programs

Fit2Win announced / planning phase ~GBP 500M annualized savings target; ~GBP 500M associated costs over next 2 years (GBP 350M treated as adjusting)
Period spend: Some costs incurred in 2025, included in guidance
Spent to date: In planning phase
Funding: Self-funded from savings; to be reinvested to fuel innovation-led growth
Start: 2025 (planning phase); costs begin 2025

Benefit:Simplify work processes, review of indirects and routes to market, embed digital decision-making, increase agility

New 3-year program; incremental to the GBP 2bn COGS target from CMD 2024. More detail promised at FY results in February. 'We expect associated costs of GBP 500 million over the next 2 years, and there's a onetime investment, GBP 350 million of that will be treated as adjusting starting in 2025 and ending in 2027.'

Cost of goods sold (COGS) savings target to 2030 underway GBP 2 billion (incremental)
Start: Announced at Capital Markets Day, October 2024

Benefit:Combustibles simplification and new-category scaling savings

Fit2Win is explicitly incremental to this GBP 2bn target.

Productivity / cost-savings program (since 2023) underway / on track Exceed GBP 1.2 billion by year-end 2025
Spent to date: Nearly GBP 900M delivered since 2023
Start: 2023

Benefit:Manage inflation and FX; fund new-category innovation

'Since 2023, we've delivered nearly GBP 900 million in productivity savings and are on track to exceed GBP 1.2 billion by year-end.'

Risks & headwinds

Illicit vapour trade (U.S. and Canada) depressing legal vapour Ongoing; no legal-vapour improvement assumed in 2025 guidance

Group Vapour revenue -13%; U.S. Vapour (Vuse) -12.3%; Canada AME vape hit by Quebec flavor ban; a >40% reduction in illicit U.S. shipments not yet visible on the ground

Mitigation:State vapour directories/enforcement now in 18 states; FDA actions (reclassification, closing small-shipment loopholes, seizures); advocacy for federal enforcement and faster authorizations; premium Vuse Ultra rollout

Fiscal and regulatory headwinds in Bangladesh and Australia 2025; Bangladesh combustibles headwinds expected to lap from 2026

APMEA revenue -4.8%, combustibles -7.9%, adjusted operating profit -12.3%; group would be at 3% revenue / 4.5% profit growth excluding these

Mitigation:Lapping Bangladesh from 2026; strong Pakistan and Nigeria performances; resource reallocation

U.S. consumer wallet pressure and structural combustible volume decline Full-year 2025; no meaningful improvement expected

U.S. combustible volume decline eased to 7.6% (industry ~8%, prior year ~8.5%); consumers still stretched with low confidence

Mitigation:Value-for-money brands (Lucky Strike), robust price/mix and RGM, duty-drawback offset; gas-price decline supportive of volumes

FX headwind from sterling strength Full-year 2025

~1% transactional FX headwind on adjusted operating profit in H1 (FY guide 1%-1.5%); translation FX driven by sterling strength, ~50% from weak USD

Mitigation:Cost savings and productivity to offset; embedded in guidance

Tariff exposure on imported inputs 2025

Absorbed into guidance; characterized as not significant

Mitigation:Productivity gains and pricing; already reflected in maintained guidance

Slow FDA authorization / PMTA backlog Ongoing

Only ~25 authorizations granted against millions of submissions over ~5 years; delays Velo 2.0 and constrains legal smokeless supply

Mitigation:Proactive regulatory advocacy for science-led level playing fields and faster approvals

Stronger U.S. combustibles comparator in H2 H2 2025

H1 benefited from a softer comparator due to 2023/24 pricing and inventory decisions; H2 comparator tougher

Mitigation:Embedded in the maintained 1.5%-2.5% APFO guidance; sustained commercial momentum

Q&A highlights

How is the glo Hilo Japan launch performing versus the Serbia test and how far will rollout reach by year-end; has Velo Plus momentum changed as the biggest competitor returns to shelf; and are Fit2Win's GBP 500M savings gross with reinvestment and no H2 upfront costs?

glo Hilo consumer feedback in Japan is very positive with a more tailored consumables/device offer than Serbia, achieving 1.5% share in weeks even before the 2-piece device; rollout only begins September, hitting the highest HP profit pools by December with real impact in 2026. Velo Plus retains momentum with ~70% retention even as discounts are cut, still gaining share and repurchase; BAT is near the #2 value-share position. Fit2Win will have some 2025 costs (already in guidance), with the ~GBP 500M an annualized saving by end-2028, part reinvested to fuel innovation.

“once the trial, the level of retention is still being kept at a very, very high level at 70% of retention and we have been reducing the discount since the launch. And despite that, we carry on seeing increasing in market share”

asked by Simon Hales · answered by Tadeu Marroco / Soraya Benchikh

5 min read 8 chapters

Detailed narrative

U.S. returns to growth for the first time since 2022

The U.S. — the largest global nicotine profit pool and management's key focus — delivered revenue +3.7% and adjusted profit +3.2%, led by combustibles revenue +3.8% as the business lapped last year's investment cycle. Total volume share rose 10 bps and value share 20 bps (ex-deep-discount volume share +60 bps), with Lucky Strike value share +60 bps as the fastest-growing U.S. combustible brand, Natural American Spirit +10 bps, and Newport stabilized via a soft-pack variant.

Management attributes the recovery to portfolio strengthening, price-gap/indexation fixes, expanded contract coverage, a larger sales force and enhanced revenue growth management. A structural duty-drawback tailwind adds to the top line but management stressed growth would have occurred regardless.

Modern Oral / Velo — the fastest-growing new category, global and U.S.

Modern Oral revenue grew over 40% and is BAT's largest new category in AME by revenue and contribution, with gross margin ~10 pp above combustibles and payback just over one year; Velo holds ~63% volume share in AME top markets, roughly 6x its closest competitor, and captures ~60% of category growth.

In the U.S., Velo Plus drove >380% Modern Oral revenue growth, reached 17%+ volume share by July (from ~9 pp gained by May), is #2 in volume share in 11 states (including NY and Texas, ~10% of the U.S. category), and is now in 135,000 outlets within six months.

Retention runs ~70% even as launch discounts are withdrawn; U.S. average daily consumption of 3 pouches (vs 6 in AME, 12 in Sweden) frames further headroom. The higher-moisture Velo 2.0 (BAT's successful European formulation) awaits FDA authorization and would be complementary.

Premium innovation rollout — glo Hilo and Vuse Ultra

glo Hilo, a breakthrough Heated Products device targeting the premium segment (>80% of industry value), launched in Sendai, Japan in June after a Serbia pilot at end-2024; it captured 1.5 pp of volume share in weeks at a premium price even without the 2-piece device, which arrives with the national Japan rollout in September.

In Vapour, Vuse Ultra — BAT's first premium vapour entry — launched online in Canada at end-Q1 and nationwide from June, taking over 2 pp of value share, and has since launched in the U.K. and Germany. Both roll out in a targeted way into the largest profit pools through H2, with meaningful impact expected in 2026.

Quality growth and the Fit2Win cost program

New category contribution margin rose 280 bps to 10.6% (gross margin +250 bps) on targeted high-value-market investment, ROI discipline and scale. BAT has delivered nearly GBP 900M of productivity savings since 2023, expects to exceed GBP 1.2 billion by year-end, and targets a further GBP 2 billion of COGS savings by 2030.

A new 3-year Fit2Win program — simplifying work processes, reviewing indirects and routes to market, and embedding digital decision-making — is expected to generate ~GBP 500M annualized savings by end-2028 (incremental to the GBP 2bn target), with GBP 500M of costs over two years (GBP 350M treated as adjusting, 2025-2027).

H1 absorbed GBP 166M of inflation and a ~1% transactional FX headwind.

Capital allocation, deleveraging and adjusting items

BAT raised the 2025 buyback by GBP 200M to GBP 1.1 billion (GBP 650M in H2) alongside its progressive dividend, and has returned GBP 17 billion to shareholders over three years while deleveraging. Reported numbers include a GBP 575M reduction in the Canadian provision (updated market forecast) and a GBP 900M gain from the partial sale of the ITC investment; adjusted diluted EPS was 162.1p on a constant basis (+1.7%) versus 155.5p on a current basis.

Management reiterated intent to divest the ITC Hotels stake — held up by bureaucratic/central-bank approvals dating to shareholdings from the early 1900s — with proceeds funding a return to the 2.5x-2x leverage corridor by end-2026.

Regulation and illicit trade

Vapour directory and enforcement legislation has now passed in 18 U.S. states, and FDA actions (product reclassifications, closing small-shipment loopholes, seizures) have driven a >40% reduction in vapour-related shipments to the U.S. — though the long supply chain means no meaningful on-the-ground impact yet, so no legal-vapour recovery is assumed in 2025 guidance.

Management is cautiously optimistic on federal enforcement priorities and continues to press the FDA to accelerate authorizations (only ~25 granted against millions of submissions over five years). Illicit single-use products depressed U.S. Vapour (-12.3%) and Canada (Quebec flavor ban with near-zero enforcement); BAT exited Malaysia vapour where enforcement is absent.

Regional performance — AME strong, APMEA pressured

AME revenue rose 3.5% (combustibles ~+3% on strong Brazil and Turkey volumes and pricing; new categories +1.3% including ~17% Modern Oral growth), with adjusted operating profit up over 10% on operating leverage, new-category scale, resource-allocation choices and Canada accounting treatment.

APMEA revenue fell 4.8% (combustibles -7.9%) and adjusted operating profit -12.3%, as fiscal and regulatory headwinds in Bangladesh and Australia outweighed good performances in Pakistan and Nigeria; new categories grew 2.5% on Heated Products in Japan and Modern Oral in emerging markets, offset by strategic vapour market exits.

Group operating margin grew 20 bps at current rates.

Digital transformation and strategic partnerships

Management framed digital as a key execution enabler: 85% cloud hosting, a Microsoft-built enterprise data platform on MS Fabric, a new GenAI lab in Dubai (deploying tools like Ask Omni and consumer-insight bots), and IT run costs cut 40% at 99.9% uptime.

A newly announced strategic partnership with Accenture will transition BAT's global shared services, giving access to Accenture's technology and Agentic AI ecosystem while BAT strengthens Accenture's supply-chain capabilities. Omni was activated in 13 markets in H1 with more planned for H2.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.