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    CFG
    Earnings call· Mar 2025(Q1 FY25)

    CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI CFG

    Apr 16, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Citizens Financial Group Q1 FY25 — NIM Expansion and Strategic Initiative Progress

    Citizens Financial Group delivered Q1 FY25 results in line with expectations, marked by NIM expansion and robust balance sheet strength. While capital markets faced headwinds from macro uncertainty, strategic initiatives like the Private Bank continued strong growth. Management reaffirmed its full-year EPS guidance, highlighting levers to offset potential macro challenges and a clear path to medium-term ROTCE targets.

    Highlights

    5
    • Net Interest Margin (NIM) expanded by 3 basis points to 2.90% in Q1 FY25.

    • Core loan growth was 1% on a period-end basis, excluding noncore runoff.

    • Private Bank deposits reached $8.7 billion and Assets Under Management (AUM) reached $5.2 billion in Q1 FY25.

    • CET1 ratio remained strong at 10.64% (9.1% adjusted for AOCI opt-out removal).

    • Executed $200 million in stock buybacks during Q1 FY25, contributing to $386 million total capital returned.

    Concerns

    3
    • Capital markets fees saw softness due to market uncertainty and seasonality, leading to a 3.5% linked-quarter decrease in noninterest income.

    • M&A and loan syndication activity were lower, with deals being pushed out due to uncertain market conditions.

    • Potential for slower loan growth and higher credit provision if macro headwinds, such as persistent market volatility or a deeper recession, materialize.

    Guidance & targets

    14
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EPS
    Reaffirmed
    high materiality
    High
    Net Interest Margin (NIM)
    3.05% to 3.10%
    high materiality
    High
    Net Interest Margin (NIM)
    3.15% to 3.30%
    high materiality
    High
    Net Interest Margin (NIM)
    3.25% to 3.50%
    high materiality
    High
    Net Interest Income (NII)
    up approximately 3%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Net Interest Margin (NIM)
    up approximately 5 basis points
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Noninterest Income
    up mid- to high single digits
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Expenses
    broadly stable
    low materiality
    Medium
    Credit Trends (Charge-offs)
    improve slightly from the first quarter charge-off level
    medium materiality
    Medium
    CET1 Ratio
    10.5% to 10.75%
    high materiality
    Medium
    Share Repurchases
    approximately $200 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    ROTCE
    16% to 18%
    high materiality
    High
    Private Bank Accretion to Citizens Bottom Line
    5%
    medium materiality
    High
    Positive Operating Leverage
    $150 million
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    1
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Private Bank
    Continued strong growth, tracking well against 2025 accretion and ROE targets. Zero customers in delinquency or criticized.
    Deposits: $8.7 billion (period-end Q1 FY25)Deposits growth: up $1.7 billion linked quarterAUM: $5.2 billion (period-end Q1 FY25)Loans: $3.7 billion (period-end Q1 FY25)Loans growth: up $550 million linked quarterNoninterest-bearing deposits mix: slightly over 40%Consumer loan mix: 30% (up from low 20s a year ago)Mortgage originations: about double YoY
    $0.04 EPS contribution

    Operational metrics

    34
    Senior debt issued
    $750 million
    Q1 FY25

    Further bolstering funding base.

    Adjusted EPS
    $0.77
    Q1 FY25

    In line with expectations.

    ROTCE
    9.6%
    Q1 FY25

    null

    Noninterest income
    -3.5%linked quarter
    Q1 FY25

    Driven by seasonal impacts in capital markets and part fees.

    Interest-bearing deposit costs
    -18linked quarter
    Q1 FY25

    Maintained noninterest-bearing deposits at 21%.

    Cumulative interest-bearing deposit down beta
    53%improved
    Q1 FY25

    null

    Total operating expenses
    1.7%linked quarter
    Q1 FY25

    Primarily reflecting seasonality in salaries and benefits.

    Noncore education loan sale
    $1.9 billion
    Q1 FY25

    $200 million sold in Q1, balance to settle ratably over next 3 quarters. Accretive to NIM, EPS, ROTCE.

    Auto loan runoff
    $700 million
    Q1 FY25

    Contributed to slight decrease in period-end and average loans.

    Core loan growth (excluding noncore)
    1%period end basis
    Q1 FY25

    Excluding noncore.

    Period-end deposits
    $3 billionup 2% linked quarter
    Q1 FY25

    Driven by low-cost growth in Private Bank and consumer, partially offset by seasonal commercial decrease.

    Noninterest-bearing deposits mix
    21%stable with prior quarter
    Q1 FY25

    null

    Stable retail deposits as % of total
    68%
    Q1 FY25

    Compares to peer average of about 55%.

    Pro forma LCR
    122%
    Q1 FY25

    Significantly above Category 1 bank requirement.

    Net charge-offs (including noncore impact)
    58
    Q1 FY25

    Includes 7 bps impact from noncore transaction.

    Net charge-offs (excluding noncore impact)
    51down modestly from 53 bps in prior quarter
    Q1 FY25

    In line with expectations.

    Nonaccrual loans
    -5%linked quarter
    Q1 FY25

    Reflecting decline in commercial and retail.

    Allowance for credit losses coverage ratio
    1.61%relatively stable
    Q1 FY25

    Portfolio mix continues to improve.

    Reserve for general office portfolio
    $351 millionbroadly stable with prior quarter
    Q1 FY25

    null

    Expected loss rate for general office portfolio
    20%
    Q1 FY25

    Cumulative charge-offs plus current reserve against March 2023 loan balance.

    Share repurchases executed
    $200 million
    Q1 FY25

    Taking advantage of strong capital position.

    Total capital returned to shareholders
    $386 million
    Q1 FY25

    Including dividends.

    Noncore education loan charge-off
    $25 million
    Q1 FY25

    Associated with the $1.9 billion portfolio sale, covered by a pre-existing allowance.

    Noncore portfolio remaining
    $2.6 billion
    Q4 FY25

    Entire book expected to be down to this level by the end of the year.

    Retail book residential secured
    79%
    Q1 FY25

    null

    HELOC growth
    9%YoY
    Q1 FY25

    Through innovative investments and customer experience.

    Mortgage portfolio growth
    3%YoY
    Q1 FY25

    High-quality customers, low prepay speeds.

    C&I portfolio investment grade equivalent
    80%
    Q1 FY25

    Moving more upmarket.

    Retail book prime and high prime
    95%
    Q1 FY25

    null

    Retail book secured
    78%
    Q1 FY25

    null

    HELOC combined loan-to-value (CLTV)
    <80%
    Q1 FY25

    null

    Mortgage combined loan-to-value (CLTV)
    51%
    Q1 FY25

    null

    Student loan refinancing with advanced degrees
    40%
    Q1 FY25

    Less sensitive to unemployment spikes.

    Student loans co-signed by parent
    98%
    Q1 FY25

    In school.

    Industry KPIs

    13
    MetricValueDetails
    Loans
    Deposits
    Rotce ROE9.6%%
    Cet1 ratio10.64%%
    Capital returns$386 millionUSD
    Fee income lines
    Allowance reserves1.61%%
    Net interest income
    Net interest margin2.90%%
    Net charge offs npls58 bpsbps
    Total operating expenses
    Provision for credit losses
    Efficiency ratio operating leverage

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    UndisclosedSale of purchased student loans from noncore portfolio$1.9 billion

    $200 million of the portfolio was sold in Q1, with the balance to be settled ratably over the next 3 quarters. Proceeds to pay down high-cost funding, purchase low-risk-weighted securities, and repurchase shares.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Macro environment uncertainty (policy decisions, tariffs, federal government downsizing)H1 FY25, potentially persisting

    Pushout in capital markets fees, slower loan growth, higher credit provision.

    Mitigation: Potential offsets include better funding costs, greater share repurchases, cost transformation efforts.

    Persistent market volatilitySecond half of the year

    Could impact capital markets revenue and anticipated loan growth.

    Mitigation: Lower loan growth could facilitate additional share repurchases, further lower deposit costs, and expense management through streamlining operations.

    Heightened likelihood of a deeper recession

    Could lead to higher provision.

    Mitigation: Current reserves are conservative, and corporate/consumer borrowers are broadly in good shape.

    Destaffing of FTC and SECCurrent

    Taking longer to get M&A transactions done.

    Mitigation: Deals are not lost, just delayed; pent-up demand remains strong.

    What to watch in Q2 FY25

    5

    Capital Markets Revenue

    Q2 FY25
    CurrentSoftness in Q1 due to market uncertainty
    TargetNice bounce off Q1 levels, conversion of record pipeline

    Why it matters

    Capital markets revenue is a material driver for full-year fee income growth and PPNR.

    Noninterest income is expected to be up mid- to high single digits led by capital markets with some risk if market uncertainty🌐 persists.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Can you provide color on current loan demand trends, line utilization, and the impact of factors like tariffs on growth?

    Management observed increased line utilization (up a couple of percentage points) in commercial, driven by tariffs, M&A, and working capital. Consumer loan growth was led by residential and HELOC (up 9% YoY), while Private Bank loans grew $500 million linked quarter. They also noted bond markets disintermediating some loan growth but expect a reversal.

    We are seeing some line utilization increases. We saw that up a couple of percentage points at the end of the first quarter compared to the fourth quarter. That was driven by a number of factors. I mean we think tariffs is part of the story, but I'd also say that M&A and some working capital is in there as well.

    asked by John Pancari · answered by John Woods

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Noncore Student Loan Portfolio Divestiture

    Citizens entered an agreement to sell $1.9 billion in purchased student loans from its noncore portfolio, with $200 million settled in Q1 FY25 and the balance to be settled ratably over the next three quarters. This acceleration in noncore runoff is expected to be accretive to NIM, EPS, and ROTCE. The proceeds will be strategically redeployed to pay down high-cost funding, purchase low-risk-weighted securities, and repurchase shares, aligning with the company's capital allocation priorities. The remaining noncore auto portfolio, with a duration of approximately 2 years, is expected to run off predictably, reaching $2.6 billion by Q4 FY25.

    02

    Strategic Growth in Private Bank and New Markets

    The Private Bank continued its strong growth trajectory, reaching $8.7 billion in deposits and $5.2 billion in AUM by the end of Q1 FY25, contributing $0.04 to EPS. It added $1.7 billion in deposits and $550 million in loans linked quarter, with over 40% of deposits being noninterest-bearing. The bank expanded its private wealth teams into Florida, Southern California, and New Jersey, and is tracking well towards its 2025 accretion and ROE targets. Progress was also noted in the New York City Metro, private capital, and payments initiatives.

    03

    Capital Markets Activity and Pipeline Strength

    Despite current market uncertainty🌐 and seasonality leading to a 3.5% linked-quarter decrease in noninterest income, the capital markets business maintains a robust outlook. The M&A pipeline is at all-time highs in terms of number and value of transactions, driven by significant pent-up demand. Management expressed optimism that these deals, which include mid-sized transactions ranging from $100 million to $300 million, will close as market uncertainty🌐 subsides, providing a potential tailwind for fee income in the second half of the year.

    04

    Balance Sheet Resilience and Capital Management

    Citizens maintains a very strong balance sheet, with a CET1 ratio of 10.64% (9.1% adjusted for AOCI opt-out removal) and an LDR of 77.5%. The company executed $200 million in stock buybacks during Q1 FY25, returning a total of $386 million to shareholders including dividends. Management indicated a willingness to increase buybacks opportunistically if loan growth slows, leveraging the attractive valuation of its stock and strong capital position.

    05

    Credit Quality and Conservative Reserve Posture

    Credit trends remained favorable, with net charge-offs of 58 bps (51 bps excluding the noncore transaction impact) and nonaccrual loans down 5% linked quarter. The allowance for credit losses remained stable at 1.61%, underpinned by conservative economic forecasts. The baseline scenario assumes a 5.1% unemployment rate for most of the book, while the general office portfolio within CRE is reserved under a severe recession scenario with a 9.3% unemployment rate and a 4.4% GDP decline, reflecting a robust coverage of 12.3% ($351 million).

    06

    Deposit Franchise Performance

    Period-end deposits increased by approximately $3 billion or 2% linked quarter, primarily driven by low-cost growth in the Private Bank and consumer segments. Interest-bearing deposit costs decreased by 18 basis points, and the cumulative interest-bearing deposit down beta improved to 53%. Stable retail deposits constitute 68% of total deposits, significantly higher than the peer average of about 55%, highlighting the strength and stability of the deposit franchise.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.