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    CFG
    Earnings call· Mar 2026(Q1 FY26)

    CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI Q1 FY26 earnings call CFG

    Apr 16, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Citizens Financial Group Q1 FY26 — 47% EPS growth, 24bp YoY NIM expansion and record Q1 capital markets fees

    Citizens is executing a deliberate mix-shift toward deeper, lower-risk relationships — private bank, wealth, and industry-specialized corporate coverage — while a self-funding reimagine-the-bank/AI program underwrites continued investment. Management held its full-year guide despite geopolitical volatility, leaning on time-based swap roll-off and strategic execution to march toward its medium-term return target.

    Highlights

    5
    • EPS of $1.13, up 47% year-over-year, with ROTCE of 12.2% and 700+ basis points of positive operating leverage YoY

    • NIM expanded 7bps QoQ to 3.14% (up 24bps YoY), driven by reduced drag from terminated swaps/noncore runoff (5bps) and improving funding costs; interest-bearing deposit cost down 16bps

    • Record first-quarter capital markets fees, with the category up 34% YoY; wealth fees up 23% YoY; noninterest income up 11% YoY

    • Private Bank momentum: deposits reached $16.6B, loans $7.7B (+$600M), client assets $10.1B, ROE >25%, ~10% of pretax income and $0.11 EPS contribution (up from $0.10)

    • Favorable credit — net charge-offs 39bps (down from 43bps QoQ); CET1 10.5% and ACL coverage 1.52%; ~$500M returned to shareholders

    Concerns

    5
    • Market volatility and geopolitical/war uncertainty (notably from March) pushed several capital markets deals from Q1 into Q2, and syndications were lower

    • Mortgage banking fees down 19% QoQ on a lower MSR valuation

    • Allowance forecast now contemplates a mild recession with slight deterioration versus last quarter, reflecting the potential impact of higher energy prices

    • Commercial CRE balances reduced further, down ~4% QoQ and 16% YoY; noncore auto ran off ~$500M in the quarter

    • Management flagged its outsized stress capital buffer (4.5%) / SCB as a 'scarlet letter' and is carrying extra capital through 2026 given macro uncertainty

    Guidance & targets

    20
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Net interest income (Q2)
    up 3% to 4%
    high materiality
    High
    Noninterest income (Q2)
    up 3% to 5%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Expenses (Q2)
    stable to up 1%
    medium materiality
    High
    Net charge-offs (Q2)
    stable to down slightly
    medium materiality
    High
    CET1 ratio (Q2)
    10.5% to 10.6%
    high materiality
    High
    Share repurchases (Q2)
    about $225M
    medium materiality
    High
    Full-year expense growth
    ~4.5%
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year positive operating leverage
    500 basis points
    high materiality
    High
    Full-year capital markets / fee income growth
    6% to 8% growth
    high materiality
    Medium
    ROTCE target
    16% to 18%
    high materiality
    Medium
    Net interest margin (4Q26)
    3.22% to 3.28%
    high materiality
    High
    Net interest margin (4Q27)
    3.30% to 3.50%
    high materiality
    Medium
    Reimagine the Bank pretax P&L benefit
    $450M run-rate
    high materiality
    Medium
    Reimagine the Bank exit run-rate benefit (2026)
    ~$100M annualized pretax
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Private Bank loan balance (year-end range)
    $11B to $13B
    medium materiality
    High
    Cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta (cycle)
    high 40s%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Basel III Endgame reproposal RWA / CET1 impact
    ~10% RWA reduction, >100bps (~110bps) CET1 uplift; net +30 to +50bps after AOCI phase-in
    high materiality
    Low
    NDFI / private credit portfolio growth
    ~5% per year (mid-single-digit)
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Dividend policy
    raise dividend as earnings grow
    medium materiality
    Medium
    AI call-center automation adoption
    25% of calls answered by non-humans by end of 2026, ramping to 50% in 2027
    medium materiality
    Medium

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Private Bank & Wealth
    Continued strong deposit and loan growth at attractive spreads and mid-20s ROE; wealth lift-outs expected to catch up in Q2. Offices opened in Malmo Park and Laurel Village; Weston Beach FL and Greenwich CT planned this year. Longer term, PBO count targeted at 25-30 over 3-4 years.
    Deposits: $16.6B period-endLoans: $7.7B period-end (+~$600M QoQ, multifamily & residential mortgage)Total client assets: $10.1B (modest net inflows, offset by market impacts)Loan-to-deposit spread: ~4% (400-425 bps)Blended deposit cost: ~220 bpsDDA mix: ~40% (over 50% incl. checking-with-interest)Headcount: ~600 (up from ~150 at launch)Private banking offices: 9 (opened 3 in Q1; target 11 by year-end)NPS: 76 (up from 70)
    ROE >25%; ~10% of pretax income; $0.11 EPS contribution (up from $0.10 QoQ)
    Consumer Bank (Retail)
    Broad steady momentum; mortgage net-positive as prepay speeds slowed; balance sheet rotating into higher-relationship lending. Credit-card balances expected to build modestly in H2 as spend activity flows through.
    Core loans: +~4% YoY (led by HELOC and mortgage)Home equity: #1 US originator (2025 league tables)New credit card originations: +50%+ (new card product)Retail loans ex-noncore: +~$300M spot QoQ (real-estate secured)Consumer deposits: ~$118B; 52% low-cost (DDA or checking-with-interest)Low-cost deposit growth: +130 bps YoY (vs ~50 bps peer average)Consumer deposits: 64% of total (vs ~56% peer average)
    Commercial Banking
    Diversified capital markets franchise; M&A pipeline strong and building with a pickup in new mandates. Mid-corporate reorganized to industry focus, driving new opportunities; Florida/NY/California expansion adding loan demand. Sponsor (PE) activity flattish YoY.
    Commercial loans ex-private bank: +1% spot QoQ (net-new originations, higher line utilization)CRE balances: -~4% QoQ, -16% YoY (deliberate reduction)Capital markets fees: +34% YoY, -4% QoQ (record Q1)Global Markets: +$10M QoQ (client hedging in rates & energy commodities)Middle-market sponsor book-runner rank: #4 by volume (Q1 and trailing 12 months)NDFI/private credit: growing ~5% per year

    Operational metrics

    8
    Reimagine the Bank vendor cost saves
    $30M+
    FY26 (projected)

    Non-AI quick wins already offsetting reimagine-the-bank investment; management expects the number to rise.

    AI software-development productivity uplift
    30% (up to 5-10x in some tests)
    Q1 FY26 / live in production

    Cited as a material productivity improvement and leverage on capital investment; being engineered for scale.

    Private banking offices (PBOs)
    9+3 opened in Q1
    Q1 FY26 period-end

    Key part of the deposit-gathering strategy; billboard value from new locations.

    Private Bank Net Promoter Score
    76up from 70
    Q1 FY26

    Cited as evidence the platform foundation is strong as the business scales.

    Credit card origination growth
    50%+YoY, following new card product launch
    Q1 FY26

    Takes time to translate into balances as spend activity flows through.

    Middle-market sponsor book-runner rank
    #4 by volume
    Q1 FY26 and trailing 12 months

    Evidence of maintained strong market share in sponsor capital markets.

    Day-count impact on NII
    ~$22Mheadwind, more than offset by margin/loan growth
    Q1 FY26 (linked quarter)

    Seasonal fewer-days drag absorbed within the 1.6% linked-quarter NII growth.

    Retail branch density (footprint)
    ~2.25%-2.5% in New Yorkvs 4%+ target for outsized operating leverage
    Q1 FY26

    New York is the fastest-growing region for households and deposits; branch densification planned, partly self-funded by repositioning in-store branches elsewhere.

    Industry KPIs

    14
    MetricValueDetails
    Loansup 1% QoQ (average and period-end)%
    Depositsaverage up 1% / $1.5B QoQ; up $8.6B / 5% YoYUSD / %
    Rotce ROE12.2%% (ROTCE)
    Cet1 ratio10.5%%
    Capital returns~$500M returned to shareholders in Q1USD
    Fee income linesnoninterest income +11% YoY, -2% QoQ (record Q1)%
    Allowance reserves1.52%% (ACL coverage)
    Net interest incomeup 1.6% linked quarter%
    Net interest margin3.14%%
    Net charge offs npls39 bpsbps
    Aoci securities marksAOCI phase-in discussed (no specific mark quantified)
    Provision for credit lossesallowance essentially stable (minimal build)
    Private credit nbfi exposurenot quantified in dollars on the call (detail in appendix slide)
    Efficiency ratio operating leverage700+ bps positive operating leveragebps

    Product announcements

    5
    ProductTypeDetails
    Reimagine the Bank programroadmap
    AI-powered call-center automationmilestone
    AI code assistant for engineeringmilestone
    New credit card productlaunch
    One Citizens cross-enterprise modelupdate

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    Undisclosed M&A boutiqueacquisitionsmall (low capital usage)

    Citizens bought a very small but high-quality M&A boutique in Q1 to go deeper into industry verticals, consistent with its selective, small-deal M&A strategy (dividend > organic growth > selective acquisitions > buybacks).

    Risks & headwinds

    7
    Geopolitical/war uncertainty and elevated market volatility disrupting capital markets activitynear-term (Q2 2026 and ongoing)

    Several March transactions pushed into April/Q2; loan syndications lower; capital markets fees down 4% QoQ; risk flagged to the Q2 3-5% fee guide

    Mitigation: Diversified capital markets franchise (M&A, bond/equity underwriting, syndications); deals re-entering the market in April; full-year fee guide (6-8%) unchanged

    Weaker macro / mild-recession scenario, incl. higher energy prices2026-2027

    Allowance forecast reflects a mild recession with slight deterioration vs last quarter due to potential higher energy prices; could extend the ROTCE timeline

    Mitigation: Portfolio mix-shift to lower-loss-content assets; ACL coverage held at 1.52%; extra capital carried through 2026

    Private credit / NBFI exposure concerns (industry headlines)ongoing

    Not quantified in dollars on the call (detail in appendix); portfolio growing ~5%/year

    Mitigation: Disciplined counterparty selection; granular review of exposures; structural protections; avoidance of technology/software exposure; growth kept to mid-single digits

    Net interest margin sensitivity to Fed rate path2026-2027

    Slight asset sensitivity; higher-for-longer is modestly positive; ~12bps of remaining 2026 NIM benefit is rate-independent (swaps/noncore)

    Mitigation: Rate-independent swap/noncore roll-off; deposit optimization (beta 50%, high-40s cycle target); confidence in 4Q26 NIM of 3.22-3.28%

    Mortgage banking / MSR valuation volatilityQ1 2026

    Mortgage fees down 19% QoQ on a lower MSR valuation

    Mitigation: Partially offset by slightly higher production and servicing fees

    Regulatory capital / outsized SCB and Basel III Endgame uncertainty2026 (CCAR) and phase-in period

    Stress capital buffer 4.5% viewed as outsized ('scarlet letter'); Basel reproposal benefit (~110bps gross, +30-50bps net) still in comment period

    Mitigation: Optimistic on CCAR giving a more accurate/lower notional SCB; carrying extra capital through 2026; any ratchet-down likely a 2027 event

    Deposit competition / funding-cost pressure if no rate cutsongoing

    Interest-bearing deposit cost down 16bps and total down 12bps in Q1; deposit volumes depend on GDP/loan formation

    Mitigation: Strong low-cost/DDA franchise (NIB mix 23%, low-cost 43%); private-bank DDA growth; top-quartile consumer low-cost growth (+130bps YoY)

    Q&A highlights

    10

    How did capital markets perform versus expectations given the volatile environment and deals pushed from Q4, and what's the forward look on pipelines and pull-through?

    Management was pleased given increased volatility, crediting diversification across M&A, bond/equity underwriting and syndications for a record Q1. Some March deals leaked into April and are now re-entering the market; pipelines are strong (especially M&A, with a pickup in new mandates), and the firm is not lowering full-year numbers.

    it was a record first quarter for us in capital markets fees, that shouldn't go unnoted.

    asked by Robert (Scott) Siefers · answered by Bruce Van Saun / Theodore Swimmer

    4 min read8 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Seasonally soft quarter, strong headline results

    Citizens delivered EPS of $1.13 with ROTCE of 12.2% in a seasonally soft first quarter, producing 47% YoY EPS growth, 700+ basis points of positive operating leverage and 24bps of YoY NIM expansion. Results were paced by strong NII — up 1.6% linked quarter on an expanded margin and higher earning assets, overcoming a ~$22M day-count drag — and a best-ever first-quarter fee result led by the commercial bank. Management characterized the quarter as a strong start delivered notwithstanding geopolitical tensions and macro uncertainty🌐.

    02

    Net interest margin walk and deposit repricing

    NIM improved 7bps QoQ to 3.14%, driven primarily by 5bps of combined benefit from reduced drag on terminated swaps and noncore runoff, 1bp of fixed-rate asset repricing, and 1bp net from improved funding cost and mix (partly offset by lower accretion). Interest-bearing deposit costs fell 16bps and total deposit costs 12bps; cumulative interest-bearing deposit beta improved to 50%, with a high-40s beta projected for the cycle even as the Fed is expected to hold steady in 2026. Roughly 12bps of additional rate-independent swap/noncore benefit remains for the balance of the year.

    03

    Capital markets: record Q1 despite volatility

    Capital markets fees were up 34% YoY (down 4% versus a strong Q4) and set a first-quarter record, with diversification across M&A, bond underwriting, equity underwriting and syndicated loans. M&A delivered a good result with a building pipeline; bond underwriting rose from the prior quarter; equity underwriting was stable QoQ and up sharply YoY; loan syndications were lower on volatility. Some March transactions were pushed into April and are now re-entering the market. Citizens ranks #4 in middle-market sponsor book-runner deals by volume (both Q1 and trailing 12 months). Global Markets rose $10M QoQ on client hedging in rates and energy commodities.

    04

    Loan and deposit growth broad-based

    Average and period-end loans rose 1% QoQ with growth across all three businesses. Commercial loans ex private bank were up 1% spot on net-new originations and higher line utilization, partly offset by ~4% QoQ (16% YoY) CRE paydowns. The Private Bank added ~$600M of loans (multifamily, residential mortgage) to reach $7.7B; retail ex-noncore grew ~$300M led by real-estate-secured, offset by ~$500M noncore auto runoff. Average deposits rose 1% ($1.5B) QoQ, up $8.6B (5%) YoY; spot noninterest-bearing balances grew $1.3B (3%) QoQ and $4.1B (11%) YoY, lifting the NIB mix to 23% and keeping the low-cost mix at 43%. Consumer deposits are 64% of the book versus a ~56% peer average.

    05

    Credit quality and allowance

    Net charge-offs came in at 39bps, down from 43bps in the prior quarter, with nonaccruals down modestly on a decline in commercial (largely C&I). The allowance was essentially stable at 1.52% ACL coverage, reflecting continued portfolio mix improvement — noncore runoff, CRE reduction and strong originations of lower-loss-content C&I, residential real estate secured and private loans. The economic forecast supporting the allowance contemplates a mild recession with slight deterioration versus last quarter, reflecting the potential impact of higher energy prices; the broad credit outlook remains positive.

    06

    Private Bank scaling toward material contribution

    The Private Bank contributed $0.11 to EPS (up from $0.10), roughly 10% of pretax income, at an ROE above 25%. It ended the quarter with $16.6B of deposits, $7.7B of loans (added at a healthy ~4% spread over deposit costs) and $10.1B of client assets with modest net inflows. DDA is ~40% of private-bank deposits (over 50% including checking-with-interest); blended deposit cost is ~220bps. The business has scaled from ~150 people at launch to ~600, opened 3 more offices (to 9 total, targeting 11 by year-end and 25-30 over 3-4 years), with a robust talent pipeline and wealth lift-outs expected to catch up📎 in Q2.

    07

    Reimagine the Bank and AI deployment

    The reimagine-the-bank program targets $450M of pretax P&L benefit by end-2028, with a ~$100M annualized run-rate benefit expected exiting 2026 — self-funded so far by non-AI quick wins including $30M+ of projected vendor saves and facility closures, against ~$6M of Q1 implementation costs. On AI, a code-assistant is live and delivering material engineering productivity gains (30%, up to 5-10x in some tests), and a call-center AI pilot targets 25% of calls handled by non-humans by end-2026, ramping toward 50% in 2027. Management stresses real financial benefits over 'science-fair projects' and architecting for model plug-and-play.

    08

    Capital, regulatory reform and New York expansion

    CET1 ended at 10.5% with ~$500M returned to shareholders in Q1. Management is optimistic on regulatory change: the Basel III Endgame reproposal could cut RWA ~10% (~110bps CET1 gross, net +30 to +50bps after AOCI phase-in), and is evaluating ERBA versus the revised standardized approach. It also anticipates a more accurate — and hopefully💬 lower notional-equivalent — SCB from the upcoming CCAR round, though it plans to carry extra capital through 2026 given war-related uncertainty; any ratchet-down is more likely a 2027 event. Separately, Citizens is analyzing its branch footprint for net-new investment, with New York City likely to see branch growth (currently ~2.25-2.5% density versus a 4%+ target), details expected midyear.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.