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    CFG
    Earnings call· Sep 2025(Q3 FY25)

    CITIZENS FINANCIAL GROUP INC/RI CFG

    Oct 15, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Citizens Financial Group Q3 FY25 — Strong NII Growth and Private Bank Momentum

    Citizens Financial Group delivered robust Q3 FY25 results, marked by strong NII growth and significant momentum in its Private Bank segment, which achieved cumulative breakeven. The company demonstrated positive operating leverage and favorable credit trends, positioning it well for sustained performance into 2026. Management is also initiating a "Reimagine the Bank" program to drive future efficiencies and enhance customer experience, with benefits expected to accelerate from 2027.

    Highlights

    5
    • EPS grew by $0.13 sequentially, a 14% increase, reaching $1.05.

    • Net Interest Income (NII) increased 3.5% sequentially, driven by a 5 basis point NIM expansion to 3%.

    • Fee growth was up 5% linked quarter, with Capital Markets achieving its second-highest quarter ever.

    • Private Bank deposits grew by $3.8 billion to $12.5 billion, exceeding the year-end target of $12 billion.

    • CET1 ratio increased by 10 basis points to 10.7%, while executing $75 million in stock buybacks.

    Concerns

    4
    • Lower long-term interest rates

    • Tighter commercial loan pricing spreads

    • Timing of Private Wealth lift-outs

    • Macro environment uncertainty

    Guidance & targets

    12
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Net Interest Income (NII)
    up approximately 2.5% to 3%
    high materiality
    High
    Net Interest Margin (NIM)
    up approximately 5 basis points
    high materiality
    High
    Noninterest Income
    stable
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Expenses
    stable to up slightly
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Net Charge-offs
    low 40s basis points
    medium materiality
    High
    CET1 ratio
    stable at 10.7%
    high materiality
    High
    Tax rate
    approximately 22.5%
    low materiality
    High
    Private Bank earnings contribution
    approximately 7% earnings contribution
    medium materiality
    High
    Private Bank ROE
    20% to 25% range
    medium materiality
    High
    Reimagine the Bank net benefits
    positive net benefits
    high materiality
    High
    Reimagine the Bank run rate benefits
    greater than $400 million
    high materiality
    High
    TOP 10 program benefit
    $100 million pretax run rate benefit
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    3
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Private Bank
    The Private Bank had a banner quarter for deposits, exceeding its year-end target. It achieved cumulative breakeven and is tracking above its FY25 earnings contribution target. Strong loan and AUM growth were also noted, driven by wealth lift-outs and increased line utilization in subscription finance.
    Deposits (period-end): $12.5BDeposits (average): $10.7BDeposit growth (period-end): $3.8BDeposit growth (average): $2.2BNoninterest-bearing deposit mix: 34%Loans (period-end): $5.9BLoan growth: $1BAUM: $7.6BAUM growth linked quarter: $1.1BEPS contribution (Q3): $0.08EPS contribution (Q2): $0.06Cumulative breakeven: AchievedPBOs with >$300M: Not statedROE: 20%-25% range (target)
    Commercial
    Commercial loans were up slightly on a spot basis due to increased line utilization tied to sponsor activity. The company continues to reduce CRE balances, which are down significantly year-to-date.
    Loans (spot basis): up slightlyCRE balances: down 3% (this quarter)CRE balances: down 6% (year-to-date)
    Core Retail
    Core retail loans grew, driven by home equity and mortgage products.
    Loans: grew by $1B

    Operational metrics

    29
    EPS
    $1.05up $0.13 or 14% sequentially
    Q3 FY25

    Reported EPS for the third quarter.

    Positive operating leverage
    3%sequential
    Q3 FY25

    Sequential positive operating leverage.

    Positive operating leverage
    5%year-over-year
    Q3 FY25

    Year-over-year positive operating leverage.

    Efficiency ratio
    63%170 bps improvement
    Q3 FY25

    Efficiency ratio improved due to disciplined expense management and strong revenues.

    Interest-bearing deposit costs
    stablelinked quarter
    Q3 FY25

    Interest-bearing deposit costs remained stable linked quarter.

    Total deposit costs
    down slightly
    Q3 FY25

    Total deposit costs decreased slightly.

    Cumulative interest-bearing deposit down-beta
    53%
    Q3 FY25

    Cumulative interest-bearing deposit down-beta through Q3.

    Noninterest-bearing balances
    $1.5Bup 4%
    Q3 FY25

    Increase in noninterest-bearing balances.

    Noninterest-bearing mix
    22%steady
    Q3 FY25

    Noninterest-bearing balances as a percentage of total deposits.

    Total deposits (spot)
    $180Bup $5B
    Q3 FY25

    Total spot deposits increased.

    Retail deposits as % of total
    66%vs peer average of 56%
    Q3 FY25

    Stable retail deposits represent a significant portion of total deposits.

    Allowance for credit losses
    1.56%down slightly
    Q3 FY25

    Allowance for credit losses as a percentage of loans.

    General office balance
    $2.5Bdown $1.6B since March 2023 (40%)
    Q3 FY25

    General office portfolio balance continues to decline.

    General office reserve coverage
    12.4%
    Q3 FY25

    Reserve for the general office portfolio.

    CET1 ratio (AOCI opt-out removal adjusted)
    9.4%
    Q3 FY25

    CET1 ratio adjusted for the AOCI opt-out removal.

    Total capital returned to shareholders
    $259M
    Q3 FY25

    Total capital returned to shareholders in Q3.

    Private Bank EPS contribution (YTD)
    $0.18
    YTD Q3 FY25

    Year-to-date EPS contribution from the Private Bank.

    Fed funds range assumption for NIM
    2.75% to 3.75%down from prior assumption
    medium term

    Revised Fed funds rate assumption for the medium-term NIM target.

    10-year yield range assumption for NIM
    4% to 4.5%down from prior assumption (4.25% to 4.5%)
    medium term

    Revised 10-year yield assumption for the medium-term NIM target.

    Private credit exposure
    $3.3B
    Q3 FY25

    Exposure to the private credit complex, primarily through securitization structures.

    Mortgage rates under 5%
    74%
    current

    Percentage of US homeowners with mortgage interest rates under 5%.

    Average loan volume
    1%up sequentially
    Q3 FY25

    Average loan volume growth.

    Period-end loans
    1%up sequentially
    Q3 FY25

    Period-end loans increased, including noncore portfolio runoff.

    Period-end loans (excluding noncore)
    2%up sequentially
    Q3 FY25

    Period-end loans growth excluding noncore runoff.

    Fee growth
    5%linked quarter
    Q3 FY25

    Fee growth driven by Capital Markets and wealth fees.

    Fee growth
    18%year-over-year
    Q3 FY25

    Fee growth year-over-year.

    Loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR)
    78.3%
    Q3 FY25

    Loan-to-deposit ratio.

    Private Bank PBOs with large book size
    $300M
    current

    PBOs have over $300 million, indicating large book size for a short time period.

    Private Bank original team book of business recovery
    50% to 60%vs prior to First Republic failure
    current

    Estimated recovery of the original Private Bank team's book of business size.

    Industry KPIs

    12
    MetricValueDetails
    Loans1%%
    Deposits$180BUSD
    Rotce ROE
    Cet1 ratio10.7%%
    Capital returns$259MUSD
    Fee income lines
    Allowance reserves1.56%%
    Net interest income3.5%%
    Net interest margin3%%
    Net charge offs npls46 bpsbps
    Total operating expenses1%%
    Efficiency ratio operating leverage63%%

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Lower long-term interest ratescurrent

    10-year yield lower than 4.25%-4.50% range

    Mitigation: Crimped front book/back book benefit, but overall NIM trajectory remains strong due to time-based benefits and hedging strategies.

    Tighter commercial loan pricing spreadscurrent

    Not quantified, but noted as 'tight'

    Mitigation: Impacts front book/back book benefit, but offset by strong fee income generation and broad-based financial services applications across client relationships.

    Timing of Private Wealth lift-outsQ4 FY25

    Potential for AUM target miss if lift-outs spill into Q1 FY26

    Mitigation: Negligible net income impact in the short term; robust pipeline of talent and strong interest in the platform. Timing difference, not a fundamental issue.

    Macro environment uncertaintyongoing

    Not quantified

    Mitigation: Focus on execution and controllable factors to sustain momentum. Hedging strategies in place to protect against aggressive Fed rate cuts.

    What to watch in Q4 FY25

    5

    NII growth

    Q4 FY25
    Current3.5% sequential
    Target2.5% to 3% growth

    Why it matters

    NII growth is a primary driver of profitability and reflects the benefits of NIM expansion and asset growth.

    We expect net interest income to be up approximately 2.5% to 3%, driven by an improvement in net interest margin of approximately 5 basis points and interest-earning assets up slightly, maintaining a fairly consistent spot LDR to the third quarter.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    Can you discuss the near-term and medium-term NIM trajectory, especially given the Q4 forecast of 3.05% and the 3.25%-3.50% medium-term target?

    Management expects Q4 NIM at 3.05% driven by time-based benefits, non-core runoff, and fixed asset repricing, overcoming slight asset sensitivity. The medium-term target of 3.25%-3.50% is supported by these benefits, front book/back book dynamics, and mix/pricing. Bruce noted that lower long-term rates and tighter commercial loan spreads have kept NIM at the lower end of prior expectations.

    I'm still happy to be at 3.05%. A couple of things have happened over the course of the year. One is that the back end of the curve has come down. So I think our original view was the 10-year would be in the 4.25% to 4.50% range. And so it's lower than that, which crimps a little bit the front book, back book benefit.

    asked by Robert Siefers · answered by Bruce Van Saun

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Private Bank Expansion and Performance

    The Private Bank continues to be a key growth driver, exceeding its year-end deposit target with $12.5 billion in deposits, up $3.8 billion sequentially. The segment has added 8 wealth lift-outs to its platform, with more in the pipeline, and has grown its team to approximately 500 people since its 2023 launch. It achieved cumulative breakeven this quarter, contributing $0.08 to EPS, up from $0.06 in the prior quarter, and is tracking to approximately 7% earnings contribution for FY25, above its initial target.

    02

    Reimagine the Bank Initiative

    Citizens is launching a 'Reimagine the Bank' initiative to enhance operational efficiency and customer experience, with full details expected in January. This program aims to deliver positive net benefits starting in 2027, accelerating into 2028, with fully phased-in run rate benefits projected to exceed $400 million. The initiative focuses on technology and AI-enabled ideas, vendor rationalization, corporate facilities optimization, and branch network repositioning for long-term growth.

    03

    Capital Markets Strength

    Capital Markets delivered a record third quarter, its second-best performance ever, driven by increased market activity across M&A, debt underwriting (primarily refinance), loan syndication, and equity underwriting. The company ranks fourth for the last 12 months in middle market sponsored loan syndications. Deal pipelines remain strong, and management expects sustained activity, particularly as private equity begins to lean in on refinancing older vintages.

    04

    NIM Expansion and Rate Sensitivity

    Net Interest Margin expanded by 5 basis points to 3% in Q3, driven by non-core runoff benefits, reduced impact from terminated swaps, and fixed-rate asset repricing. The company's cumulative interest-bearing deposit down-beta was 53% through Q3. While slightly asset sensitive, management believes active swaps and mix will offset this, projecting a Q4 NIM of 3.05%. The medium-term NIM target of 3.25% to 3.50% remains intact, even with lower Fed funds rate assumptions, due to hedging strategies and time-based benefits.

    05

    Credit Quality and Portfolio Management

    Credit trends continue to be favorable, with net charge-offs decreasing to 46 basis points, down from 48 basis points in Q2, primarily due to a decrease in C&I. Nonaccrual loans and criticized balances also declined. The allowance for credit losses is slightly down to 1.56%, reflecting an improved portfolio mix from non-core runoff and reduction in the CRE portfolio. The general office portfolio declined by $1.6 billion since March 2023, with a robust 12.4% coverage reserve.

    06

    Succession Planning and Leadership Transition

    Bruce Van Saun highlighted the ongoing leadership transition, with Don McCree retiring in March 2026 and Ted Swimmer taking over Commercial Banking. The arrival of Aunoy Banerjee as the new CFO will complete the refresh of the leadership team, positioning the bank with a dynamic new team for the next decade.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.