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    CXW
    Earnings call· Jun 2026(Q2 FY26)

    CoreCivic Q2 FY26 earnings call CXW

    Aug 6, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    CoreCivic Q2 FY26 — Strategic Asset Sales Fortify Balance Sheet and Drive Shareholder Returns

    CoreCivic executed significant asset sales in Q2 FY26, generating substantial net proceeds of $1.6 billion, which were primarily used to reduce debt and fund a $500 million increase to the share repurchase program. The company redefined its operating segments and reported strong operational performance, exceeding analyst estimates for adjusted EPS and EBITDA, despite temporary declines in ICE populations. Management remains confident in the underlying value of its real estate portfolio and its ability to meet government demand, prioritizing shareholder returns through repurchases.

    Highlights

    5
    • Sale of 4 facilities for gross proceeds of $2.234 billion, yielding estimated net proceeds of $1.6 billion.

    • Adjusted EPS of $0.38 exceeded average analyst estimates by $0.04.

    • Adjusted EBITDA of $109.4 million exceeded average analyst estimates by $2 million.

    • Board approved a $500 million increase to the share repurchase program, bringing total capacity to $756 million.

    • Average daily population across all facilities increased to 56,363 individuals, up from 54,026 in the prior year quarter.

    Concerns

    3
    • Operating margins in the Residential segment decreased to 22.4% from 26.1% YoY, partly due to a 6.6% decline in average daily ICE populations from Q1 to Q2.

    • Operating margins could be negatively impacted by contract modifications for sold facilities and start-up activities at the Prairie Correctional facility.

    • Revenue from U.S. Marshals Service decreased by $14.1 million versus the prior year quarter.

    Guidance & targets

    11
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Diluted EPS
    $15.00 to $15.20
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted Diluted EPS
    $1.62 to $1.70
    high materiality
    High
    Normalized FFO per share
    $2.61 to $2.70
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA
    $440.5 million to $445.5 million
    high materiality
    High
    Maintenance Capital Expenditures
    $65 million to $75 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Other Capital Expenditures
    $15 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Capital Expenditures for Idle Facilities Activation
    $35 million to $40 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Adjusted Funds From Operations (AFFO)
    $257.5 million to $271.5 million
    high materiality
    High
    Annual Effective Tax Rate
    25% to 28%
    low materiality
    Medium
    General and Administrative (G&A) Expenses
    $173 million to $175 million
    medium materiality
    Medium
    ICE Populations (Q3/Q4)
    Modestly higher
    high materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    2
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    CoreCivic Residential
    Operating margin decreased from 26.1% in the prior year quarter, primarily due to $8.2 million of ERCs reflected in Q2 2025. Excluding ERCs, margin was 24.5% in prior year. Decline in ICE populations and 55% occupancy at ramping facilities contributed to margin decline. Margins expected to increase in H2 as occupancies rise.
    Occupancy: 78.4%Occupancy YoY change: +1.6 pointsSegment Net Operating Income contribution: 92.4%
    22.4%
    CoreCivic Services
    Operating margin was in line with expectations. Segment Net Operating Income contribution increased from 0.5% in prior year due to the acquisition of Clinical Solutions Pharmacy.
    Segment Net Operating Income contribution: 6.1%
    10.2%

    Operational metrics

    54
    Average price per bed (asset sales)
    $307,000
    Q2 FY26

    Average price per bed for the 4 facilities sold.

    Revolving credit facility outstanding balance repaid
    $575 million
    Q2 FY26

    Portion of net sale proceeds used to repay the outstanding balance under the revolving credit facility.

    Share repurchase program capacity increase
    $500 million
    Q2 FY26

    Increase to existing share repurchase program authorized by the Board on August 4, 2026.

    Total share repurchase program capacity
    $756 million
    Q2 FY26

    Total capacity for additional repurchases after the $500 million increase.

    M&A expenses (Q2 FY26)
    $0.7 million
    Q2 FY26

    Expenses associated with M&A activities for the acquisition of Clinical Solutions Pharmacy, reported in G&A expense.

    Employee retention credits (Q2 FY25)
    $11.6 million
    Q2 FY25

    Collection of employee retention credits, including interest, in the prior year quarter.

    Adjusted EPS impact from ERCs (Q2 FY25)
    $0.08
    Q2 FY25

    Per share impact of employee retention credits in the prior year quarter.

    Initial purchase price for CSP
    $148 million
    Q2 FY26

    Funded with cash on hand and borrowings under the revolving credit facility.

    Adjusted EBITDA increase (excluding ERCs)
    $17.7 million19.3% YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Increase in adjusted EBITDA from prior year quarter, excluding employee retention credits.

    Weighted average diluted shares outstanding decrease
    8.9%YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Decrease in weighted average diluted shares outstanding as a result of the share repurchase program.

    Operating income from ramping facilities
    $21.1 million
    Q2 FY26

    Operating income generated at the 4 facilities ramping up during Q2 FY26.

    Net debt to adjusted EBITDA
    2.9x
    Q2 FY26

    Leverage ratio as of June 30, 2026, using trailing 12 months.

    Cash on hand
    $108.9 million
    Q2 FY26

    Cash balance as of June 30, 2026.

    Borrowing capacity on revolving credit facility (Q2 end)
    $273.3 million
    Q2 FY26

    Additional borrowing capacity on revolving credit facility as of June 30, 2026.

    Revolving credit facility outstanding balance (Q2 end)
    $280 million
    Q2 FY26

    Balance outstanding on revolving credit facility as of June 30, 2026.

    Total liquidity (Q2 end)
    $382.2 million
    Q2 FY26

    Total liquidity as of June 30, 2026, including cash on hand and borrowing capacity.

    Net proceeds from California City and Otay Mesa sales
    $1.1 billion
    Q3 FY26

    Estimated net proceeds after transaction costs and taxes from the sale of California City and Otay Mesa facilities, completed July 2, 2026.

    Debt repaid from California City and Otay Mesa proceeds
    $608.5 million
    Q3 FY26

    Total debt paid down using net proceeds from the California City and Otay Mesa sales.

    Senior notes due 2027 repaid
    $238.5 million
    Q3 FY26

    Repayment of 4.75% unsecured notes due 2027, part of the $608.5 million debt reduction.

    Net proceeds from Midwest Regional and Prairie sales
    $522 million
    Q3 FY26

    Estimated net proceeds after taxes and transaction costs from the sale of Midwest Regional Reception Center and Prairie Correctional facility, completed early August 2026.

    Cash on hand (post-sales and debt repayments)
    $1 billion
    Q3 FY26

    Estimated cash on hand after income taxes and debt repayments from all facility sales.

    Total debt outstanding (post-sales and debt repayments)
    $739.1 million
    Q3 FY26

    Estimated total debt outstanding after income taxes and debt repayments from all facility sales.

    Borrowing capacity on revolving credit facility (post-sales)
    $553.3 million
    Q3 FY26

    Estimated borrowing capacity under revolving credit facility after all facility sales and debt repayments.

    Shares repurchased since May 2022
    28.1 million
    May 2022 - Q2 FY26

    Total shares repurchased under the share repurchase program since its authorization.

    Aggregate cost of shares repurchased
    $444.2 million
    May 2022 - Q2 FY26

    Total cost of shares repurchased under the share repurchase program.

    Average price of shares repurchased
    $15.82
    May 2022 - Q2 FY26

    Average price per share for repurchases since May 2022.

    Remaining share repurchase authorization
    $755.8 million
    Q2 FY26

    Amount authorized and available under the share repurchase program, including the increased authorization.

    Number of facilities owned (post-sales)
    56
    Q3 FY26

    Number of corrections, detention, and reentry facilities retained after the recent sales.

    Design capacity (post-sales)
    63,727
    Q3 FY26

    Total design capacity of retained facilities.

    Total square footage (post-sales)
    12.3 million
    Q3 FY26

    Total square footage of retained facilities.

    ICE-dedicated facilities owned (post-sales)
    9
    Q3 FY26

    Number of facilities contracted and dedicated fully to ICE among retained assets.

    ICE-dedicated facilities design capacity (post-sales)
    10,750
    Q3 FY26

    Design capacity of ICE-dedicated facilities among retained assets.

    ICE-dedicated facilities square footage (post-sales)
    2.2 million
    Q3 FY26

    Square footage of ICE-dedicated facilities among retained assets.

    Revenue from federal partners growth
    27.2%YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Increase in revenue from federal partners (primarily ICE and U.S. Marshals Service) compared to prior year quarter.

    Revenue from ICE growth
    $91.3 million51.6% YoY
    Q2 FY26

    Increase in revenue from ICE compared to prior year quarter.

    Revenue from U.S. Marshals Service decrease
    $14.1 millionYoY
    Q2 FY26

    Decrease in revenue from U.S. Marshals Service compared to prior year quarter, partly due to mix shift.

    ICE populations in care increase (2025-Q2 2026)
    6,00059.6%
    Beginning of 2025 - Q2 FY26

    Increase in ICE populations in CoreCivic's care from beginning of 2025 through June 30, 2026.

    ICE populations in care (Q2 end)
    16,197
    Q2 FY26

    Number of ICE individuals cared for as of June 30, 2026.

    Average daily population decrease (QoQ)
    1,184QoQ
    Q2 FY26

    Decrease in average daily population in Q2 FY26 from Q1 FY26, net of increases at activated facilities.

    Nationwide ICE detention populations (peak)
    70,800
    Late January 2026

    Historical high for nationwide ICE detention populations.

    Nationwide ICE detention populations decrease
    10,500
    January - April 2026

    Decrease in detention populations by early April 2026 due to government shutdown, DHS leadership changes, and redeployment of ICE agents.

    Nationwide ICE detention populations (early July)
    65,500
    Early July 2026

    Nationwide ICE detention populations as of early July, showing a rebound.

    California City detention facility population
    1,674
    Q2 FY26

    Population at the California City detention facility as of June 30, 2026.

    Diamondback correctional facility population
    1,522
    Q2 FY26

    Population at the Diamondback correctional facility as of June 30, 2026.

    Midwest Regional Reception Center population
    379
    Q2 FY26

    Population at the Midwest Regional Reception Center as of June 30, 2026, after accepting detainees in March.

    Idle corrections and detention facilities
    4
    Q2 FY26

    Number of idle facilities available to meet federal or state demand.

    ICE populations in care decline (QoQ)
    6.6%QoQ
    Q2 FY26

    Decline in average daily ICE populations in CoreCivic's care during Q2 FY26 from Q1 FY26.

    Nationwide ICE detention populations decline (peak to trough)
    14.8%
    January - April 2026

    Decline in nationwide ICE detention populations from 70,766 at end of January to 60,311 in early April.

    Nationwide ICE detention populations increase (April to July)
    9%
    April - July 2026

    Increase in nationwide ICE detention populations from 60,311 in early April to 65,765 in mid-July.

    ICE populations in CoreCivic care increase (April to July)
    17.7%
    April - July 2026

    Increase in ICE populations in CoreCivic's care during the same period.

    Run rate adjusted EBITDA
    $450 million
    FY26

    Estimated run rate for total adjusted EBITDA, excluding the Prairie facility's full activation impact.

    Stock price (current)
    $32
    Q2 FY26

    Approximate trading price of the stock at the time of the call.

    Stock price (8x EBITDA multiple)
    $41.50
    Hypothetical

    Hypothetical stock price if trading at 8x EBITDA multiple.

    Stock price (9.5x EBITDA multiple)
    $48
    Hypothetical

    Hypothetical stock price if trading at 9.5x EBITDA multiple (20-year average).

    Industry KPIs

    1
    MetricValueDetails
    EBITDA margin22.4%%

    Deals & partnerships

    4
    Department of Homeland SecuritySale of two detention facilities while retaining management contracts.$1.5 billion

    Sale of California City Detention Facility (2,560-bed) and Otay Mesa Detention Center (1,994-bed), both in California. Completed July 2, 2026.

    Government partnerSale of two correctional facilities while retaining management contracts.$734 million

    Sale of Midwest Regional Reception Center (Kansas) and Prairie Correctional Facility (Minnesota). Completed early August 2026.

    ICENew management contract award for a previously idle facility.

    New contract award to manage the 1,600-bed Prairie Correctional Facility, idle since 2010. Began hiring staff, expecting detainees in Q4.

    Clinical Solutions Pharmacy (CSP)Acquisition of a pharmaceutical supplies and services provider.$148 million

    Acquisition completed April 1, 2026. Initial purchase price of $148 million funded with cash on hand and revolving credit facility borrowings.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Potential for modified contract terms for sold facilitiesOngoing

    Not quantified, but incorporated into updated Adjusted EBITDA guidance range ($440.5M-$445.5M vs prior $453.8M-$461.8M)

    Mitigation: Management has incorporated its best estimate of financial impact into the updated guidance range.

    Start-up activities and phased intake at Prairie Correctional FacilityRemainder of FY26

    Immaterial impact to earnings for remainder of 2026

    Mitigation: Phased commencement of intake operations and start-up activities are factored into guidance.

    Temporary decline in ICE detention populationsQ2 FY26 (resolved)

    Nationwide ICE detention populations declined by 10,500 individuals (14.8%) from January to early April 2026; CoreCivic's average daily ICE populations declined by 6.6% QoQ.

    Mitigation: Management believes these declines were temporary due to government shutdown, DHS leadership changes, and agent redeployment, all of which have since resolved. Populations have begun to rise again.

    Increased General and Administrative (G&A) expensesFY26

    Forecasted $173 million to $175 million for FY26 (up from prior guidance)

    Mitigation: Increase is due to higher incentive compensation associated with the facility sales, which is a one-time event related to value creation.

    Potential for share repurchases to negatively impact net income, FFO, and EBITDASecond half of 2026

    Reduction in interest income associated with cash used for repurchases

    Mitigation: While these metrics may be negatively impacted, the corresponding per-share measures are expected to be favorably impacted by the reduction in weighted average shares outstanding.

    What to watch in Q3 FY26

    5

    Contract adjustments for sold facilities

    Next quarter
    CurrentNegotiations ongoing, impact incorporated into FY26 guidance
    TargetFinalized contract terms and their financial impact

    Why it matters

    Resolution of contract terms for the recently sold facilities will clarify the ongoing revenue and margin profile for these assets under continued management.

    Yes, we're not -- we've incorporated the range of outcomes from those negotiations into our guidance, but we're not specifically quantifying them for obvious reasons. Those negotiations are not yet complete, but we felt like putting -- incorporating our best estimate into the range would provide investors with what the run rate could be.

    Q&A highlights

    8

    How much of the adjusted EBITDA guidance change is due to anticipated contract adjustments for the sold facilities, and when are these changes expected to be effective?

    Management stated they incorporated a range of outcomes from ongoing negotiations into guidance but would not quantify the specific delta or effective date as negotiations are not yet complete.

    Yes, we're not -- we've incorporated the range of outcomes from those negotiations into our guidance, but we're not specifically quantifying them for obvious reasons. Those negotiations are not yet complete, but we felt like putting -- incorporating our best estimate into the range would provide investors with what the run rate could be. I don't yet know the effective date of those contract negotiations when they'd be effective either as of yet.

    asked by Gregory Gibas · answered by David Garfinkle

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Asset Sales and Balance Sheet Fortification

    CoreCivic completed the sale of four facilities for a total gross proceeds of $2.234 billion, resulting in estimated net proceeds of $1.6 billion after taxes and transaction costs. These sales, including California City Detention Facility, Otay Mesa Detention Center, Midwest Regional Reception Center, and Prairie Correctional Facility, demonstrate the underlying value of the company's real estate portfolio. The proceeds were primarily used to repay $608.5 million of outstanding debt, including the $575 million revolving credit facility and $238.5 million of senior notes due 2027, significantly strengthening the balance sheet and increasing liquidity to $1 billion cash on hand and $553.3 million in borrowing capacity.

    02

    Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    Following the substantial asset sales, the Board of Directors approved a $500 million increase to the existing share repurchase program, bringing the total authorization to $755.8 million. Management intends to utilize a substantial portion of the remaining net proceeds for share repurchases, viewing the stock as significantly undervalued at approximately 6x EBITDA compared to a 20-year average of 9.5x. The company's leverage policy target is 2.25x to 2.75x, with current net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 2.9x as of June 30, 2026, and a potential to drop below 2x after further debt repayments and share repurchases.

    03

    Operational Performance and Segment Re-definition

    CoreCivic redefined its operating segments into CoreCivic Residential, CoreCivic Services, and CoreCivic Properties to align with its operational strategy. The company exceeded analyst estimates for adjusted EPS by $0.04 and adjusted EBITDA by $2 million in Q2 FY26. Total occupancy for the Residential segment was 78.4%, up 1.6 points YoY, with an average daily population of 56,363 individuals. Revenue from federal partners, primarily ICE, increased 27.2% YoY, with ICE revenue specifically up 51.6%.

    04

    ICE Population Dynamics and Facility Activations

    ICE populations in CoreCivic's care increased by approximately 6,000 individuals (59.6%) from early 2025 to June 30, 2026. While nationwide ICE detention populations saw a temporary decline in Q2 FY26 due to a government shutdown and leadership changes, they have since begun to rise, reaching 65,500 in early July. CoreCivic continues to activate facilities, including California City and Diamondback, which were 55% occupied in Q2, and recently secured a new contract for the 1,600-bed Prairie Correctional Facility, expecting minimal earnings contribution in 2026 due to start-up activities.

    05

    Outlook and Strategic Flexibility

    The updated FY26 guidance reflects the financial impact of the facility sales, including interest income from residual cash balances and increased G&A for incentive compensation. The company maintains a vast real estate portfolio of 56 facilities with 63,727 beds, emphasizing its continued role as a significant owner of specialized real estate infrastructure. Discussions with ICE for potential additional facility sales are in preliminary stages and not included in current guidance, highlighting ongoing strategic flexibility.

    06

    State and U.S. Marshals Service Operations

    At the state level, CoreCivic successfully secured traditional inflation-related per diem increases and adjustments for staff wage compensation, with state operations performing well and a solid outlook for the remainder of the year. While U.S. Marshals Service revenue decreased by $14.1 million YoY due to mix shifts where ICE and Marshals share contracts, positive movement in Marshal populations was observed in the last quarter, consistent with seasonal expectations.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.