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Elbit Systems (ESLT) Q3 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Sep 2025 (Q3 FY25)· Industrials· Nov 18, 2025

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Elbit Systems Q3 FY25 — Record $25.2B backlog and margin expansion on European demand

The thesis is pivoting from Israel wartime demand toward durable European order flow as the ceasefire holds, and management frames record backlog plus structural margin gains (operational excellence, automation, AI, one-ERP) as sustainable rather than cyclical. Aerospace's tether to the U.S. budget caps it to single-digit growth, but UAV, directed-energy and European land demand carry the momentum, with cash conversion and capital returns still improving.

Highlights

5
  • Q3 revenue of $1.922B, up 12% YoY (9-month revenue +18%); seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth

  • Record order backlog of $25.2B, up $3.1B YoY and $1.4B sequentially, driven mainly by new European orders (~69% now sourced outside Israel)

  • Non-GAAP diluted EPS of $3.35, up ~52% from $2.21; non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 9.7% from 8.2% (GAAP operating income $171.4M vs $125.8M)

  • Quarterly free cash flow of $101M and 9-month operating cash flow of $461M vs $82.5M a year ago (fifth straight quarter of positive FCF)

  • Signed $2.3B international strategic-solution contract — the largest in company history (8-year performance period)

Concerns

3
  • Aerospace segment revenue fell 3% YoY on lower Precision Guided Munition sales in Asia Pacific

  • Elbit Systems of America revenue declined 2% YoY on weaker electronic-systems and medical-instrument sales

  • Post-ceasefire domestic outlook implies flattish Israel backlog going forward, with growth reliance shifting to international/European orders

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Order backlog trajectory (Israel vs international)
Flattish backlog in Israel, growth outside Israel (predominantly Europe)
high materiality
Medium
Aerospace segment revenue growth
Single-digit growth
medium materiality
Medium
IRON BEAM ground high-power laser first-system deployment
First system deployed by end of 2025
medium materiality
High
Profitability and cash conversion improvement
Continued improvement (no specific numeric target/guidance provided)
low materiality
Low

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Aerospace
Decline mainly from lower Precision Guided Munition sales in Asia Pacific, partially offset by higher PGM sales in Israel and higher unmanned aerial system sales in Europe. Management expects single-digit forward growth (tied to U.S. budget) plus UAV/loitering-munition demand.
9-month revenue growth: +9%
—-3%——
C4I and Cyber
Increase mainly from radio systems and command-and-control system sales in Europe.
9-month revenue growth: +15%
—+14%——
ISTAR and EW
Growth from Electro-Optic systems and Electronic Warfare systems sales in Israel and high-power laser sales in Israel. This segment developed the JUPITER space camera.
9-month revenue growth: +8%
—+5%——
Land
Strong increase from ammunition and munition sales in Israel and in Europe; automation (robots/cobots) in ammunition/munition factories is aiding margins.
9-month revenue growth: +44%
—+41%——
Elbit Systems of America
Decline from lower Electronic systems and medical instrument sales, partially offset by higher Maritime and Warfighter system sales.
9-month revenue growth: +6%
—-2%——
Israel (geography)
Largest single geography; management targets flattish backlog in Israel going forward.
33% of Q3 2025 revenues———
Europe (geography)
Primary future growth engine; the quarter's backlog increase came mainly from new European orders. New facilities opened in Sweden and Germany.
28% of Q3 2025 revenues———
North America (geography)
Includes U.S. 'home market' operations; management exploring further U.S. M&A.
21% of Q3 2025 revenues———
Asia Pacific (geography)
Lower PGM sales in Asia Pacific weighed on the Aerospace segment this quarter.
14% of Q3 2025 revenues———

ESLT operating KPIs by quarter

ESLT operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPI Jun 2025 Q2 FY25This call Sep 2025 Q3 FY25Change vs prior quarter
Backlog
$23.8B Our order backlog as of June 30, 2025, was $23.8 billion, $2.6 billion higher than the backlog at the end of the second quarter of 2024 and $626 million higher than the backlog in the first quarter of 2025. Source: earnings call transcript
$25.2B The order backlog as of September 30, 2025, was $25.2 billion, $3.1 billion higher than the backlog at the end of the third quarter of 2024, and $1.4 billion higher than the backlog in the second quarter of 2025. Source: earnings call transcript
+5.9%

Operating figures the company stated on at least two of the calls shown, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Orderbook & backlog

Total order backlog $25.2 billion 2025-09-30

+$3.1B YoY; +$1.4B QoQ (vs Q2 2025)

~69% derived from orders outside Israel; ~38% scheduled to be performed during the remainder of 2025 and 2026, the rest for 2027 and beyond. Quarter's increase came mainly from new European orders. QoQ +$1.4B split: +$200M Israel, +$1.2B outside Israel.

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
JUPITER space cameramilestone
PAWS 2 infrared missile warning systemlaunch
Frontier wide-area persistent surveillance systemlaunch
IRON BEAM ground high-power laser systemmilestone

Deals & partnerships

Undisclosed international customer customer contract (strategic solution) ~$2.3 billion 8 years

Announced the day before the call ('Yesterday'): an international contract for a strategic solution for approximately USD 2.3 billion, to be performed over 8 years.

Undisclosed European country customer contract $1.635 billion (management said 'USD 1.625 billion (sic) [USD 1.635 billion]') 5 years

Broad-scope order including long-range precision-strike artillery-rocket systems; unmanned reconnaissance and loitering aerial combat systems; ISTAR capabilities incl. SIGINT, COMINT and EW; intelligence collection/processing systems; advanced electro-optic and night-vision systems; combat-vehicle upgrades; and protective systems.

Airbus customer contract $260 million

Contract to supply DIRCM (Directed Infrared Countermeasures) systems to Airbus.

Israel Ministry of Defense (IMOD) and others customer contract

New orders for Hermes 900 drones and advanced airborne munitions for the IMOD; growing interest in Hermes drones, EW systems and training platforms following the 12-day Iran campaign.

Sparton (prior acquisition) acquisition (referenced)

Referenced alongside the night-vision acquisition as successful, growing U.S. positions; management is exploring further U.S. acquisition opportunities.

Capital programs

Operational-excellence / manufacturing automation & ERP program underway

Benefit:Higher gross and operating profitability and improved cash conversion

Management cites CapEx investments now yielding fruit: a fully operational single ERP system across the company, and robots/cobots deployed mainly in ammunition/munition factories, plus AI use — collectively driving the margin expansion. No program dollar amount was disclosed.

Risks & headwinds

Aerospace segment revenue decline Q3 2025

-3% YoY in Q3 2025 (though +9% for nine months)

Mitigation:Growth expected to resume at single-digit rate; UAV/loitering-munition demand and internationally embedded avionics support the segment

Softening domestic (Israel) demand post-ceasefire Forward

Flattish Israel backlog targeted; only +$200M of the +$1.4B QoQ backlog increase came from Israel

Mitigation:Growth reliance shifting to international/European orders (~69% of backlog now outside Israel); ceasefire lets the company refocus on ex-Israel business (~70% of revenue)

Elbit Systems of America revenue decline Q3 2025

-2% YoY in Q3 2025 on lower electronic-systems and medical-instrument sales

Mitigation:Partly offset by Maritime and Warfighter systems; U.S. viewed as strategic 'home market' with M&A and border-protection pipeline

Dependence on U.S. defense budget for Aerospace growth Ongoing

Growth capped to single-digit, tracking single-digit U.S. budget growth

Mitigation:International OEM platform sales (Boeing, Lockheed and others) and UAV demand diversify the revenue base

Q&A highlights

How enduring is domestic (Israel) demand after the ceasefire, and what is the margin trade-off if bookings shift toward international?

Kobi pointed to the $1.4B backlog increase this quarter ($200M Israel, $1.2B outside Israel) as indicative of the future growth pattern: flattish Israel backlog, growth outside Israel, predominantly Europe, based on the funnel and demand pipeline.

“We are targeting around flattish backlog in Israel and growth outside of Israel, predominantly in Europe.”

asked by Jordan Lyonnais · answered by Yaacov Kagan

3 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Revenue growth and margin-expansion trajectory

Q3 2025 revenue reached $1.922B, up 12% YoY (18% for the nine months), the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. GAAP gross margin rose to 24.9% from 24.0% (non-GAAP 25.2% vs 24.4%), and non-GAAP operating margin expanded to 9.7% from 8.2%.

Management attributes the ~1% gross-profitability and ~0.5% operating-expense improvement to better backlog profitability and operational-excellence initiatives (one operational ERP system, robots/cobots in ammunition/munition factories, and AI use), plus scale-driven conversion. This was described as the first quarter showing simultaneous expansion in both gross and operating profitability.

Record backlog and geographic shift toward Europe

Order backlog hit a record $25.2B at September 30, 2025 — $3.1B higher YoY and $1.4B higher sequentially — with the quarter's increase coming mainly from new European orders. Roughly 69% of backlog is now from outside Israel, and about 38% is scheduled for delivery in the remainder of 2025 and 2026, with the rest in 2027 and beyond.

Of the $1.4B sequential increase, $200M came from Israel and $1.2B from outside Israel. Management targets flattish Israel backlog with growth concentrated in Europe going forward.

Segment performance divergence

Land surged 41% YoY (44% for nine months) on ammunition and munition sales in Israel and Europe; C4I and Cyber rose 14% on radio and command-and-control sales in Europe; ISTAR and EW grew 5% on electro-optic, EW and high-power laser sales in Israel.

Aerospace declined 3% on lower PGM sales in Asia Pacific (partly offset by PGM in Israel and UAS in Europe), and Elbit Systems of America fell 2% on weaker electronic-systems and medical-instrument sales, partly offset by Maritime and Warfighter systems.

Cash generation and shareholder return

Quarterly free cash flow was $101M, the fifth consecutive quarter of positive FCF and continued cash-conversion improvement. Nine-month operating cash flow jumped to $461M from $82.5M a year earlier, driven mainly by the strong increase in net income. Financial expenses fell to $34.5M from $45M on lower average net debt, and the effective tax rate dropped to 8.2% from 14.6% on higher deferred tax assets.

The Board declared a $0.75 per-share dividend payable January 5, 2026.

Major contract awards and demand catalysts

Elbit announced its largest-ever contract — an ~$2.3B international strategic-solution deal over 8 years — plus a $1.635B (stated 'USD 1.625 billion (sic)') 5-year contract with a European country covering long-range precision-strike artillery-rocket systems, unmanned reconnaissance and loitering systems, ISTAR/SIGINT/COMINT/EW, EO and night-vision, combat-vehicle upgrades and protection.

Additional orders included Hermes 900 drones, advanced airborne munitions for the IMOD, and a $260M DIRCM contract for Airbus. Post the 12-day Iran campaign, management cites growing interest in Hermes drones, EW systems and training platforms.

Directed energy, UAVs and U.S. expansion

Management sees energy weapons as a key future growth engine: Elbit leads Israel's airborne high-power laser (still in development) and supplies the laser source for the ground IRON BEAM system, expecting more Israeli orders next year and international interest. UAV/loitering-munition demand is strong, with the Hermes 900 selected by over 20 international customers since 2011.

In the U.S. — described as a 'home market' — the night-vision and Sparton sonobuoy acquisitions are growing, avionics and Active Protection (Bradley) are performing well, and management is actively exploring further U.S. M&A and border-protection (CBP) opportunities.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.