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    ETR
    Earnings call· Dec 2024(Q4 FY24)

    ENTERGY CORP /DE/ ETR

    Feb 18, 2025 Source

    Executive summary

    Entergy Q4 FY24 — Strong Industrial Growth and Expanded Capital Plan Driven by Data Centers

    Entergy concluded FY24 with strong financial performance, driven by robust industrial and data center growth, leading to a significant increase in its multi-year capital plan. The company is actively pursuing new generation and transmission investments to support this demand, while also managing financial health and exploring new nuclear options. The long-term outlook reflects an accelerated growth trajectory, underpinned by strategic stakeholder engagement and risk management.

    Highlights

    5
    • Reported 2024 adjusted EPS of $3.65, landing in the top half of guidance.

    • Industrial sales grew 8% for the year and 15% for the fourth quarter.

    • Increased the 4-year capital plan (2025-2028) by $2.7 billion to $37 billion.

    • Raised the long-term EPS growth rate outlook through 2028 to 'greater than 8%'.

    • Achieved a book FFO to adjusted debt of 14.7% in 2024, outperforming rating agency thresholds.

    Concerns

    6
    • Winter weather events

    • Hurricanes

    • Financing costs / Interest rate risk

    • New nuclear investment financial risk

    • Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) investment

    • Legislative activity in Texas and Arkansas

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Adjusted EPS
    $3.75 to $3.95
    high materiality
    High
    Long-term Adjusted EPS Growth Rate
    greater than 8%
    high materiality
    High
    Weather-adjusted Retail Sales Growth
    6%
    medium materiality
    High
    Industrial Sales Growth
    11% to 12%
    medium materiality
    High
    Utility O&M
    roughly flat
    low materiality
    Medium
    Dividend Growth
    6% per year
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    12
    Adjusted EPS
    $3.65
    FY24

    In the top half of guidance range.

    Weather-adjusted Retail Sales Growth
    4%YoY
    FY24

    Consistent with original expectations, driven by strong industrial growth.

    Industrial Sales Growth
    8%YoY
    FY24

    Driven by large customers in petroleum refining, chlor-alkali, and technology segments.

    Industrial Sales Growth
    15%YoY
    Q4 FY24

    Strong growth in the fourth quarter.

    Book FFO to Adjusted Debt
    14.7%
    FY24

    Estimate Moody's and S&P comparable metrics will be well above their thresholds.

    S&P SERI Issuer Credit Rating
    BBB-upgraded from BB+
    December

    Upgrade in response to FERC's approval of the LPSC settlement.

    Equity Needs Sourced
    $1.4B
    2025-2026

    Secured using ATM program.

    Equity Needs Remaining
    $3.3B
    2027-2028

    75% not expected to be needed until 2027 and 2028.

    FFO-to-Debt Target
    15%
    long-term

    Sustainable target for credit metrics.

    Earned ROEs
    improving from 9% to 9.5%
    forecast period

    Expectation for ROEs over the forecast period.

    Dividend Payout Ratio
    could declinehistorically 60-65%
    outlook period

    Due to significant growth, payout ratio may decline while dividend growth remains at 6%.

    Industrial Sales CAGR
    12% to 13%
    2024-2028

    Forecasted compound annual growth rate.

    Industry KPIs

    4
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debt14.7%%
    Retail sales growth4%%
    New gas generation builds upgradesOrange County Advanced Power Station, Delta Blues facility
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas

    Orderbook & backlog

    1
    Data Center Opportunity Pipeline5 to 10 GWQ4 FY24

    Represents the total opportunity within the larger pipeline; largest growth category, well positioned to capture additional projects.

    Deals & partnerships

    5
    Unnamed large customerNew electric service agreement (ESA) in Mississippi

    Customer has not announced their project; provides community enhancements through ad valorem taxes and direct investments.

    MetaExpansion of capacity needs for existing contract in Louisiana

    Detailed in supplemental testimony submitted by Entergy Louisiana last week.

    Entergy Mississippi (acquiring) / Entergy Louisiana (divesting)Divestiture of Entergy Louisiana's 16% of Grand Gulf capacity and energy to Entergy Mississippi

    Approved by LPSC and New Orleans City Council.

    Mitsubishi Power Americas and Siemens EnergySecured critical long lead time equipment (turbines, transformers)

    Provides clear line of sight to acquire additional equipment for subsequent projects beyond current plan.

    HoltecMOU to investigate new SMR technology

    Part of exploring new nuclear options.

    Capital programs

    5
    4-year Capital Planunderway$37 billion
    Funding: operating cash flow, pension, customer contributions (CIAC, minimum bills), equity ($1.4B secured, $3.3B remaining)
    Start: 2025

    Benefit: dispatchable and renewable generation capacity, distribution investments, reliability and resilience improvements, support for customer growth

    $2.7 billion higher than previous plan provided at EEI; primarily in Mississippi and Louisiana.

    Resilience Investment Phase 1underwaymore than $2 billion
    Spent to date: 7 projects completed in Louisiana (1 in New Orleans) in 2024

    Benefit: improved resilience and reliability

    Final approvals in Louisiana, Texas and New Orleans.

    Resilience Investment Phase 2pending regulatory approvalgreater than $2 billion

    Benefit: improved resilience and reliability

    Expect to seek approval by end of 2025 or early 2026; capital will be added once clarity through regulatory process.

    MTAP 10-year Planapproved$1.8 billion

    Benefit: 49 projects to support reliability

    Approved in December; included in current capital plan.

    MTAP '25 Projectsproposed$3.7 billion

    Benefit: meet NERC reliability standards as system grows

    Proposed projects included in current capital plan.

    Risks & headwinds

    6
    Winter weather eventsJanuary

    Winter event Enzo in January brought extremely low temperatures; system and 4 of 5 operating companies set new winter peak records.

    Mitigation: Operations performed well throughout the event.

    Hurricanes2024

    Two hurricanes in 2024 (e.g., Francine); crews restored 90% of customers within 3 days for Francine.

    Mitigation: Leveraged learnings from previous storm responses; Entergy workers assisted other utilities in restoration efforts.

    Financing costs / Interest rate risklong-term

    Higher ratings should result in relatively lower borrowing costs.

    Mitigation: Maintaining healthy credit metrics; current forecast outperforms rating agency thresholds, growing towards a sustainable 15% FFO-to-Debt.

    New nuclear investment financial risk

    No specific quantification, but acknowledged as a risk.

    Mitigation: Will carefully manage financial risk with any new nuclear investment; exploring risk management tools (state funds, federal support, customer/vendor partnerships, consortiums).

    Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS) investment

    Current capital plan does not include dollars for CCS.

    Mitigation: Actively working on developing projects including customer supported investment and third-party ownership options; FEED study underway at Lake Charles power station with decision expected this year.

    Legislative activity in Texas and Arkansasearly in sessions

    No specific quantification, but acknowledged as a potential impact.

    Mitigation: Looking at options to support investment needed for new growth opportunities and to create space for more risk management investments and resilience to benefit customers.

    What to watch in Q1 FY25

    5

    Resilience Investment Phase 2 Approval

    by end of 2025 or early 2026
    CurrentPhase 1 underway, seeking approvals for subsequent phases
    TargetRegulatory approval for Phase 2 ($2B+)

    Why it matters

    Secures ongoing investment for grid hardening and reliability, impacting future capital plan and rate base.

    We expect to be in a position by the end of the year to begin to seek the next phase. So it could be just before the end of the year or just after the end of the year at this point

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Clarification on the core drivers of the $3 billion CapEx update (skewed to generation/renewables) and what 'new nuclear' entails (large-scale vs. SMRs, federal/state conversations).

    The CapEx increase is largely for generation (cycle and renewables) and some distribution/nuclear investments. For new nuclear, Entergy is looking at all forms, including large-scale (like AP1000) and SMRs (MOU with Holtec, investigating GE's technology), focusing on risk profile and value for stakeholders. Conversations are primarily at the state level, with federal interest evolving.

    We actually are looking at all forms of new nuclear, the large scale, like an AP1000... But we are also looking at SMRs. We have MOU with Holtec to investigate their new technology.

    asked by Sharriar Pourreza · answered by Andrew Marsh

    3 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Data Center & Industrial Growth Fuels Expansion

    Entergy reported strong industrial sales growth of 8% for the year and 15% in Q4 2024, driven by the natural advantages of the Gulf South. The company added two large hyperscale data centers to its outlook in 2024 and maintains a robust pipeline of 5 to 10 gigawatts of data center opportunities. A new electric service agreement (ESA) was announced with an unnamed large customer in Mississippi, and an expansion of Meta's capacity needs via an anticipated ESA in Louisiana is expected, contributing to an industrial sales compound annual growth rate of 12% to 13% from 2024 through 2028.

    02

    Expanded Capital Plan to Support Growth and Reliability

    The company announced a new 4-year capital plan totaling $37 billion from 2025 through 2028, an increase of $2.7 billion from previous estimates. This plan is primarily focused on dispatchable and renewable generation capacity, distribution investments for reliability and resilience, and includes projects like the Orange County Advanced Power Station in Texas and the Delta Blues facility in Mississippi. The capital plan also incorporates investments from the MTAP 10-year plan ($1.8 billion for 49 projects) and proposed MTAP '25 projects ($3.7 billion) to meet NERC reliability standards.

    03

    Strategic Regulatory and Legislative Engagement

    Entergy has a busy regulatory calendar for 2025, including formula rate plan filings, potential transmission distribution riders in Texas, and decisions on new customer-driven generation and transmission investments. The company is also engaging in legislative processes in Texas and Arkansas to support investment for new growth opportunities and risk management, particularly around resilience and storm cost recovery. Successful regulatory processes in 2024 included final approvals of SERI settlements and over $2 billion in resilience investment approvals.

    04

    New Generation and Nuclear Footprint Exploration

    The company has secured critical long-lead time equipment with Mitsubishi Power Americas and Siemens Energy for current and future projects. New gas plants, including combined-cycle facilities configured for future carbon capture and sequestration (CCS), are part of the plan, with a FEED study for CCS underway at Lake Charles power station expected to reach a decision this year. Entergy is also exploring expansion of its nuclear footprint through upgrades, license extensions, and evaluating potential new nuclear options (both large-scale and SMRs) with partners, carefully managing financial risk.

    05

    Strengthening Financial Health and Credit Metrics

    Entergy closed 2024 with solid credit metrics, achieving a book FFO to adjusted debt of 14.7%, which is expected to be well above rating agency thresholds. S&P upgraded SERI's issuer credit rating to BBB- from BB+ in December. The company plans to finance the increased capital plan through operating cash flow, pension contributions, customer contributions (CIAC, minimum bills), and equity, with $1.4 billion already secured and $3.3 billion remaining to be sourced, mostly in 2027 and 2028. The forecast aims for a sustainable 15% FFO-to-Debt.

    06

    Resilience and Operational Excellence

    The company demonstrated strong operational performance during two hurricanes in 2024, restoring 90% of customers within 3 days for Hurricane Francine, and during the winter weather event Enzo in January, where its system and 4 of 5 operating companies set new winter peak records. Resilience investments are underway, with 7 projects completed in Louisiana in 2024, and the company expects to seek approvals for subsequent phases of its resilience program by the end of 2025 or early 2026.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.