EVgo (EVGO) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

EVgo announced a significant agreement with Tesla to deploy EVgo branded superchargers, with EVgo owning and setting pricing, while Tesla builds and operates. These V4 superchargers (500 kW) will feature Magic Dock technology, supporting both NACS and CCS vehicles, effectively doubling EVgo's addressable market. The partnership also ensures EVgo's NACS-equipped stations will appear in Tesla's navigation system, a critical factor for Tesla drivers. This strategic move is expected to accelerate NACS deployment across EVgo's network, with the goal of all 2023 vintage and newer sites having a NACS connector within two years.

EVgo ended Q2 FY26 with 5,380 stalls in operation, a threefold increase since 2021, including 4,000 owned and operated. The company added 280 new stalls in Q2, while decommissioning 175 legacy chargers. Daily throughput per stall was down 2% year-over-year but up 7% sequentially. Notably, mature 350-kilowatt stores are already achieving the mid-350 kilowatt-hours per day throughput level projected for 2028, with these stores contributing almost 70% of current throughput. The company is scaling its network with new site host partnerships, such as Brixmor, to ensure high-quality locations.

EVgo reiterated its confidence in achieving approximately $0.5 billion in recurring adjusted EBITDA by 2030, with EBITDA margins in the low to mid-30% range. This forecast is underpinned by strong operating leverage in both charging gross margin and adjusted G&A. Charging gross margin is projected to reach around 50% by 2030 as throughput rises, leveraging fixed costs. Adjusted G&A is expected to barely double over 2025 levels by 2030, allowing a significant portion of gross profit to flow to the bottom line. The company projects 4,000 to 5,000 new stores deployed by 2030.

Despite a lower Vehicles in Operation (VIO) forecast compared to three years ago, the market still expects VIO to double by 2030, with a 17% annual growth rate. EV sales volumes in Q2 FY26 were 247,000, up 15% from Q1, indicating stabilization after federal incentive losses. The used EV market is seen as a significant tailwind, with over 1.5 million vehicles coming off lease between 2026 and 2028, as these owners are more reliant on public fast charging. State-level incentives, particularly in California, are also spurring EV adoption and rideshare electrification.

Beyond its core charging business, EVgo is evaluating opportunities to monetize its excess utility connected capacity, which is expected to quadruple to over 2 gigawatts in the next five years. Potential adjacencies include demand response, battery energy storage systems, or capacity for a distributed edge AI inference network. The company also sees inorganic growth opportunities due to its ability to attract non-dilutive financing, potentially acquiring attractive sites from underperforming competitors. A dedicated corporate development team has been formed to explore these avenues, including potential geographic expansion.