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Ionis (IONS) Q1 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Mar 2026 (Q1 FY26)· Health Care· Apr 29, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Ionis Q1 FY26 — Strong Commercial Momentum and Raised Full-Year Guidance

Ionis Pharmaceuticals entered 2026 with significant momentum, continuing its transition into a fully integrated commercial biotech company. The company reported strong Q1 financial results driven by accelerating commercial launches of Tryngolza and DAWNZERA, alongside substantial R&D revenue from partnerships. Management raised its full-year revenue and operating loss guidance, reflecting confidence in its expanding commercial portfolio and advancing pipeline, with a clear path towards cash flow breakeven by 2028.

Highlights

5
  • Total revenues increased 87% year-over-year to $246 million in Q1 FY26.

  • Commercial revenue grew over 42% year-over-year in Q1 FY26.

  • DAWNZERA contributed $16 million in Q1 FY26, an increase of 125% compared to the prior quarter.

  • Annual peak sales estimate for olezarsen was increased from >$2 billion to >$3 billion.

  • Full-year 2026 total revenue guidance was raised by $75 million to a range of $875 million to $900 million.

Concerns

2
  • Tryngolza revenue is expected to significantly decline in Q2 FY26 due to an updated price effective April 1.

  • Waylivra sales were down 35% versus the fourth quarter of 2025.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year 2026 Total Revenue
$875 million to $900 million
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 Tryngolza Product Sales
$100 million to $110 million
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 DAWNZERA Product Sales
$110 million to $120 million
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 Operating Expenses
Low-teen percentage range increase
medium materiality
High
Full-year 2026 R&D Expenses
Remain steady
low materiality
High
Full-year 2026 Non-GAAP Operating Loss
$425 million to $475 million
high materiality
High
Full-year 2026 Year-End Cash Balance
Greater than $1.6 billion
medium materiality
High
Cash Flow Breakeven
2028
high materiality
High
Olezarsen Annual Peak Sales Estimate
Greater than $3 billion
high materiality
High
Olezarsen PDUFA Date
June 30
high materiality
High
Zilganersen PDUFA Date
September 22
high materiality
High
Bepirovirsen PDUFA Date
October 26
high materiality
High
Partner-led Launches
5 launches
medium materiality
High

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Tryngolzalaunch
DAWNZERAexpansion

Deals & partnerships

Sobi Partner for Tryngolza launch in Europe.

Tryngolza launch is now underway in Europe through Sobi.

Otsuka Partner for DAWNZERA launch in Europe.

DAWNZERA received European approval earlier this year and Otsuka has initiated launch activities across the region.

GSK Partner for Bepirovirsen.

Bepirovirsen is a potential first-in-class medicine for chronic hepatitis B, partnered with GSK.

AstraZeneca Partner for pelacarsen and eplontersen.

Pelacarsen Lp(a) HORIZON trial and eplontersen Cardio Transform trial data expected this year.

Risks & headwinds

Tryngolza revenue decline due to price change Q2 FY26

Significant decline

Mitigation:New price set to integrate into 2027 payer contracting cycles, positioning for accelerating access post-SHTG approval.

Waylivra sales weakness Q1 FY26

Down 35% versus Q4 FY25

Mitigation:Attributed to January/February pressure related to reauthorizations; expected to pick up in subsequent quarters.

What to watch in Q2 FY26

Olezarsen SHTG Approval and Launch

Q2/Q3 FY26
Current PDUFA date June 30
Target FDA approval and initial launch trajectory

Why it matters

Olezarsen is positioned as Ionis' first wholly owned multibillion-dollar medicine, and its successful launch is key to commercial revenue growth.

We are on track for the launch of olozorsen in severe hypertriglyceridemia, which represents our first independent launch in a broad patient population. We are pleased to have received priority review by the FDA with the PDUFA date of June 30

Find out whether IONS delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

What drove the increase in olezarsen peak sales from $2B to $3B, and what are the gross-to-net expectations?

The increase in olezarsen peak sales was driven by completed HCP demand research, comprehensive payer research, and the established $40,000 annual WACC price. The company is not commenting on gross-to-net at this time.

“So our increase in peak product sales for Trungolza and SHTG and SCS combined in the U.S. to $3 billion was based on several factors. As you recall, we increased the price or the peak sales to $2 billion in January based really solely on the Phase III data and some preliminary HCP demand research that we had conducted. The demand was very high. Since then, we've completed our HCP demand research. But more importantly, we completed our payer research, which landed on our $40,000 annual WACC price, so price as well as priority review. Those are the biggest drivers of the increase in peak sales that we have put out today.”

asked by Jessica Fye · answered by Brett Monia

3 min read 5 chapters

Detailed narrative

Olezarsen Launch Readiness and Market Insights

Ionis is on track for the independent launch of olezarsen in severe hypertriglyceridemia (SHTG), following Priority Review by the FDA with a PDUFA date of June 30. Extensive market research with high-volume lipid specialists, cardiologists, and endocrinologists consistently showed that preventing pancreatitis is the key treatment goal in SHTG, and current options are insufficient. HCPs expressed high intent to prescribe olezarsen across various patient types, with initial use expected for individuals with triglyceride levels above 880 mg/dL or above 500 mg/dL with a history of acute pancreatitis or other high-risk comorbidities. The company has set a new annual wholesale acquisition cost of $40,000, integrating olezarsen into 2027 payer contracting cycles.

DAWNZERA Launch Dynamics and Patient Feedback

The DAWNZERA launch is gaining significant momentum in the U.S., largely in a switch market for Hereditary Angioedema (HAE). The company observes increasing adoption across all patient segments: those switching from existing prophylactic therapies, those previously using on-demand treatment, and treatment-naive patients. The free trial program has been effective with high conversion rates. Feedback from both physicians and patients is consistently positive, highlighting DAWNZERA's strong efficacy, differentiated RNA-targeted mechanism, positive switch data, and patient-friendly profile including a self-administered auto-injector. Repeat prescribers are growing, indicating substantial patient benefit, and the launch fundamentals suggest significant contribution to commercial revenue in 2026 and beyond.

Zilganersen Launch Preparations and Patient Identification

Ionis is preparing for its first independent launch from its neurology portfolio with Zilganersen for Alexander's disease, following FDA Priority Review with a PDUFA date of September 22. The expanded access program is underway. Commercial efforts focus on strengthening relationships with leukodystrophy and rare neurology HCPs, advancing partnerships with patient advocacy groups, and ensuring support infrastructure for diagnosis, treatment, and ongoing care. The medical affairs team is engaging with top centers to build awareness. The company estimates approximately 300 Alexander's disease patients in the U.S., with about 50% identified, and is expanding efforts to identify more patients.

Partnered Pipeline Progress and Value Drivers

The partnered pipeline continues to advance towards multiple value-driving events. Bepirovirsen (chronic hepatitis B, partnered with GSK) is on track for launch in the U.S. and Japan this year, having received Breakthrough Therapy designation and Priority Review with an October 26 PDUFA date. GSK will present Phase III results at EASL. Additionally, data from two major cardiovascular outcome trials are expected this year: the pelacarsen Lp(a) HORIZON trial and the eplontersen Cardio Transform trial in transthyretin-mediated cardiomyopathy. These programs, along with Bepirovirsen, contribute to an expectation of five partner-led launches by the end of 2027, creating diversified royalty and milestone streams.

Financial Strategy and Balance Sheet Strength

Ionis' Q1 performance underscores the value of its diversified revenue model, combining growing commercial revenue with substantial and recurring R&D revenue from partner programs. The company ended the quarter with approximately $1.9 billion in cash, even after repaying $633 million in convertible notes. This strong balance sheet and prudent fiscal management enable strategic investments in ongoing and planned launches and pipeline advancement. The financial outlook reflects accelerating commercial launches, a progressing pipeline, and a diversified revenue base, positioning the company for continued growth and maintaining its target for cash flow breakeven in 2028.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.