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Namib Minerals (NAMM) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Jun 2026 (Q2 FY26)· Materials· Oct 1, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Namib Minerals Q2 FY26 — Gold-price leverage funds capacity and restart plans

This first-half call showed a miner whose price-driven earnings leverage strengthened even as lower grade and delayed mill commissioning exposed operating fragility. The investment case now turns on a clean How ramp, tighter fixed-cost absorption and a safe, non-dilutive Redwing restart while liquidity remains constrained.

Highlights

5
  • Adjusted EBITDA increased 76% to $19.0M and adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 37% from 30%.

  • Average net realized gold price rose 48% to $4,195/oz, more than offsetting the 7% decline in ounces sold.

  • Production costs declined 3% to $17.9M despite a 15% increase in power tariffs.

  • Operating cash flow increased 61% to $9.3M, while trade and other payables were $0.5M below year-end.

  • Redwing dewatering was completed on September 21, 2026, ahead of the published Q4 target, enabling an accelerated restart funded without new equity.

Concerns

5
  • How Mine H1 2026 production fell 11% to 11,373 ounces as grade declined to 1.7 g/t from 1.9 g/t; FY26 production guidance was cut to 26,500-27,000 ounces from 28,000-31,500 ounces.

  • Group AISC reached $3,078/oz in H1, above the prior $2,400-$2,700/oz guidance; FY26 guidance was raised to $2,650-$2,850/oz.

  • Underlying administrative expenses roughly doubled to approximately $10.5M from $5.5M, reflecting a full period of Nasdaq-listed-company costs.

  • At June 30, cash was $1.8M and the working-capital deficit was $42.9M; current liabilities were $63.3M versus current assets of $20.4M.

  • Noncash earn-out and warrant fair-value losses totaled $11.3M, driven primarily by the share-price rise from $1.01 to $1.88.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full-year production
26,500-27,000 ounces
high materiality
High
Full-year C1 cash cost
$1,400-$1,650 per ounce
high materiality
High
Full-year group all-in sustaining cost
$2,650-$2,850 per ounce
high materiality
High
How Mine mill commissioning
Commission in mid-October 2026
high materiality
High
How Mine expanded mill ramp
Full rate by end-December 2026 after a 6-8 week ramp
high materiality
High
How Mine annualized production rate
More than 30,000 ounces annualized
high materiality
Medium
Redwing first production
First production in January 2027 at a rate above prescribed thresholds
high materiality
High
Redwing technical feasibility study completion
Conclude in early Q1 2027
medium materiality
High
Redwing resource definition and DFS completion
Conclude in Q4 2027
high materiality
Medium
Second-half administrative expenses
Below H1 2026
medium materiality
Medium
Second-half group all-in sustaining cost
Materially lower than H1 2026
medium materiality
Medium
FY27 production and cost guidance publication
Provide guidance in Q1 2027
medium materiality
High
Redwing FY26 production contribution
Not material
medium materiality
High

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
How Mine
Higher gold pricing more than offset lower production and sales volume. The mine's largely fixed cost base caused per-ounce costs to rise despite lower absolute production cost.
Gold production: 11,373 ozGold sales volume: 11,357 ozTonnes milled: 233,000 tonnesAverage grade: 1.7 g/tRecovery: 88%Net realized gold price: $4,195/ozProduction costs: $17.9M
$50.8MProduction down 11%; sales volume down 7%; net realized price up 48%—Mine-level AISC: $2,534/oz versus $2,265/oz

Deals & partnerships

Ecobank Secured bank financing facility $5M 36 months, through May 2029

Namib drew the facility in full in July 2026. It is repaid in monthly installments from gold sales.

BancABC Increase to existing bank financing facility Facility increased from $6.7M to $13.2M

Agreement announced September 29, 2026 to increase the existing bank facility.

Capital programs

How Mine expanded milling plant nearing completion
Period spend: Included within $10.7M of H1 2026 investing cash outflow covering the How expansion, How production ramp-up and Redwing restart; project-specific spend was not separated.
Funding: Operating cash flow and bank debt; management said the next steps were funded without new equity.

Benefit:Raises processing capacity from approximately 40,500 tonnes/month to 55,000 tonnes/month, about 36%; supports annualized production above 30,000 ounces at current grades once fully ramped.

How Mine was mill-constrained; installation was substantially complete and recommissioning checks were underway. Commissioning remained within the previously communicated H2 timeline but was later than assumed in the original production plan.

Redwing initial restart underway
Period spend: Included within $10.7M of H1 2026 investing cash outflow covering the How expansion, How production ramp-up and Redwing restart; project-specific spend was not separated.
Funding: Internally generated cash flows; no new equity issuance planned for the initial restart.
Start: October 2026

Benefit:Restarts Redwing at an initial reduced capacity above Zimbabwe's prescribed production and capital-investment thresholds using existing developed mining areas and processing infrastructure.

Dewatering was completed September 21, 2026, ahead of the previously published Q4 target. The three-month initial restart is an additional workstream alongside, not a replacement for, the staged feasibility pathway; a full geotechnical audit is the gate before mining resumes.

Redwing Development Milestones and feasibility program underway Earlier aggregate indication of approximately $300M-$400M for Redwing and Mazowe, subject to feasibility-study validation
Funding: Technical feasibility study described as fully funded; management's staged development approach has so far used bank debt rather than equity.

Benefit:Defines the potential larger-scale Redwing operation and its required capital; no large-scale development decision will be taken before study completion.

Stages 2-5 of the published Development Milestones pathway were unchanged. Management said the earlier approximately $300M-$400M aggregate indication for Redwing and Mazowe still required DFS validation and was never intended as one upfront requirement.

Corporate restructuring completed
Period spend: $2.6M of one-time restructuring costs in H1 2026
Spent to date: Completed in H1 2026
Funding: Internally funded.

Benefit:Reduces the annualized administrative-expense run rate; specific savings were not quantified.

The restructuring was completed in H1 2026 and generated $2.6M of one-time restructuring costs. Management expects the savings to contribute in H2.

Risks & headwinds

Lower grade and delayed mill contribution reduced production H1 and FY26

H1 production fell 11% to 11,373 oz; FY26 production guidance was reduced from 28,000-31,500 oz to 26,500-27,000 oz.

Mitigation:Commission the expanded mill in mid-October and ramp over 6-8 weeks to add throughput and improve fixed-cost absorption.

Elevated group all-in sustaining cost FY26

Group AISC was $3,078/oz in H1 versus $2,462/oz a year earlier and above prior FY26 guidance; new FY26 range is $2,650-$2,850/oz.

Mitigation:Restructuring savings and higher H2 volumes are expected to lower per-ounce costs.

Higher public-company overhead H1 and H2 2026

Underlying administrative expenses were approximately $10.5M versus $5.5M; $2.6M of one-time restructuring costs were incurred.

Mitigation:H1 restructuring is expected to reduce the annualized run rate and H2 administrative expenses.

Liquidity and working-capital pressure Through June 2027

Cash was $1.8M and working-capital deficit was $42.9M at June 30; current liabilities were $63.3M, including $7.5M share-settled earn-out and approximately $15.9M in ring-fenced entities.

Mitigation:Management updated cash projections, drew the Ecobank facility and agreed an increase to the BancABC facility; it emphasized ring-fencing and share settlement for portions of liabilities.

Redwing restart execution and underground safety October 2026-January 2027

Redwing restart program runs for three months from October 2026, targeting first production in January 2027.

Mitigation:Complete a full geotechnical audit before mining, then re-equip historical areas, refurbish the plant and mobilize the workforce.

Zimbabwe mining-policy compliance By January 1, 2027

Zimbabwe's prescribed operating and capital-investment thresholds become effective January 1, 2027; Mazowe's specific compliance plan was not quantified.

Mitigation:Initial Redwing restart targets compliance using existing infrastructure; management is developing a similar response for Mazowe.

Share-price-driven noncash earnings volatility Ongoing

Earn-out and warrant fair-value losses totaled a stated $11.3M as the share price rose from $1.01 to $1.88.

Mitigation:Management distinguishes the movements from cash performance and excludes them from adjusted EBITDA.

What to watch in Q3 FY26

How mill commissioning

next quarter
Current Installation substantially complete; recommissioning checks underway
Target Commissioned in mid-October 2026 and progressing through the 6-8 week ramp

Why it matters

Commissioning timing determines whether Namib can deliver revised production guidance and improve fixed-cost absorption.

We expect to commission mid-October.

Find out whether NAMM delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

How is Mazowe being positioned to comply with Zimbabwe's new mining-policy framework?

Tulani said the company is working to ensure Mazowe meets the Ministry's specifications, consistent with its Redwing approach, but provided no plan, cost or timing.

“We are presently working towards ensuring the mine meets the necessary specifications.”

asked by Unknown Executive · answered by Tulani Sikwila

2 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

How Mine production and mill constraint

How Mine remained the sole producing foundation in H1, but lower grade and slightly lower tonnage reduced ounces despite stable throughput and recovery. The existing mill was operating close to its practical limit, leaving little ability to offset grade weakness with additional tonnes.

Management characterized the revised annual outlook as a commissioning-timing issue rather than an asset-capacity problem. The expanded circuit is intended to unlock greater throughput and spread a largely fixed operating-cost base across more ounces.

Gold-price leverage and cost absorption

The stronger gold-price environment more than offset lower sales volume and created substantial operating leverage. Mine-level production costs declined in absolute terms despite higher power tariffs, but fixed-cost absorption caused per-ounce costs to rise. Group AISC also carried corporate overhead plus Redwing and Mazowe care-and-maintenance costs against How Mine's ounces. Management expects better second-half absorption as the expanded mill ramps and restructuring savings appear.

Adjusted earnings and corporate cost base

Adjusted earnings strengthened as higher realized pricing expanded gross profit, partly offset by increased corporate costs. Underlying administration increased because 2026 included a full period of public-company infrastructure, executive hires, insurance, investor relations, legal and professional fees, and share-based compensation.

Management completed restructuring during the half to lower the future run rate. The call distinguished these recurring listed-company costs from transaction and restructuring charges in each comparison period.

Redwing accelerated restart

Redwing's restart was accelerated after Zimbabwe introduced operating and investment thresholds effective at the start of 2027. Early dewatering completion and existing underground and processing infrastructure make an initial reduced-capacity restart possible without waiting for the DFS. A geotechnical audit remains the safety gate before mining resumes, followed by re-equipping, plant refurbishment and workforce mobilization.

The broader feasibility-led development path continues separately and no large-scale capital decision has been made.

Liquidity, working capital and going concern

The group ended the half with a significant working-capital deficit, although management argued the headline amount overstates immediate cash claims because part relates to a share-settled earn-out and part sits in ring-fenced care-and-maintenance entities. Cash-flow projections through June 2027 were updated for the revised commissioning and production assumptions and continued to support the going-concern basis.

Liquidity improved after period-end through Ecobank and BancABC facilities. Management reported covenant compliance both at June 30 and at the time of the call.

Funding discipline and portfolio obligations

Management reiterated a sequenced, non-dilutive funding philosophy: operating cash supports the initial Redwing restart, while bank facilities fund development milestones. The earlier aggregate development estimate for Redwing and Mazowe remains preliminary and subject to DFS validation, with capital expected to be deployed through separate stage gates rather than upfront.

The company explicitly disclaimed any Namib Minerals, Greenstone or BMC payment obligation for the outstanding BMC purchase price. Mazowe's response to Zimbabwe's policy framework was still being developed.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.