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Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) Q4 FY25 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Earnings call· Dec 2025 (Q4 FY25)· Utilities· Feb 25, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Pinnacle West Capital Corporation Q4 FY25 — Strong Demand Growth and Grid Expansion

Pinnacle West delivered strong operational and financial results in Q4 and full year 2025, driven by robust demand growth from large industrial customers like TSMC and data centers, alongside consistent residential expansion. The company is actively investing in grid infrastructure and pursuing a constructive regulatory outcome for its rate case, including a formula rate, to support continued growth and enhance financial predictability. Management is focused on cost efficiencies and managing financing needs amidst significant capital deployment.

Highlights

5
  • Achieved full year 2025 earnings of $5.05 per share, landing in the upper half of updated guidance.

  • Experienced 6.8% weather-normalized sales growth in Q4 FY25, driving full year weather-normalized sales growth of 5%.

  • Achieved 2.4% total customer growth in 2025, installing over 34,000 new meters for the second consecutive year.

  • Successfully completed over 400 megawatts of APS-owned resources ahead of schedule, including new gas units and battery storage.

  • Palo Verde nuclear plant operated at 100% summertime capacity factor and received a 2025 INPO excellence award.

Concerns

3
  • Full year 2025 EPS of $5.05 was a decline from $5.24 in 2024, primarily due to a $0.71 weather-driven drag.

  • Q4 FY25 results were partially offset by milder than normal weather, higher financing costs, and increased pension and OPEB expenses.

  • Regulatory lag continues to impact the ability to consistently translate top-line growth to bottom-line growth, putting pressure on FFO to debt metrics.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Annual Earnings Per Share
$4.55 to $4.75 per share
high materiality
High
Weather-Normalized Sales Growth
4% to 6%
medium materiality
High
Long-Term Sales Growth
5% to 7%
high materiality
High
O&M per Megawatt Hour
further reduce
medium materiality
High
Rate Base Growth
7% to 9%
high materiality
High
Equity Needs
largely derisked
medium materiality
High

Orderbook & backlog

Committed Large Load Capacity 4.5 GW Q4 FY25

Reflects known and committed customer demand, including TSMC and other data centers, expected to materialize over the 15-year IRP period.

Uncommitted Large Load Pipeline 20 GW Q4 FY25

Represents potential incremental demand beyond current plans, actively being negotiated through a subscription model. Any contracted portion would be incremental to the IRP and capital plan.

Deals & partnerships

TSMC Expansion of semiconductor manufacturing footprint

TSMC is expanding with a second fab moving to full production in 2027, a third fab under construction, a fourth fab and advanced packaging facility in early development, and 900 additional acres recently acquired for future expansion.

Transwestern Southwest Desert Pipeline expansion

Closely monitoring progress of Transwestern's Southwest Desert Pipeline expansion, which has been upsized from 42 to 48 inches due to strong regional demand, critical for supporting Arizona's growth.

Capital programs

Capital Program for Reliability and Growth underway
Funding: thoughtful mix of debt and equity

Benefit:reliability, grid resiliency, meeting growing customer needs

Firmly focused on reliability, grid resiliency, and meeting the growing needs of customers, supported by a disciplined financing approach.

Red Hawk Gas Expansion on track

Benefit:additional gas capacity of up to 2 GW commencing in 2030

Remains on track for completion in 2028, with ongoing preparations to support additional gas capacity of up to 2 gigawatts commencing in 2030.

Risks & headwinds

Weather-driven earnings impact FY25

$0.71 per share year-over-year drag

Higher financing costs Q4 FY25

quantified

Mitigation:Disciplined and balanced financing approach, expansion of liquidity, derisking 2026 equity needs.

Increased pension and OPEB expenses Q4 FY25

quantified

Regulatory lag Ongoing, particularly in 2026

Impacts ability to consistently translate top-line growth to bottom-line growth

Mitigation:Focus on processing rate case, advocating for formula rate to allow more prompt recovery and consistent cost recovery.

Lumpy nature of rate cases Historically

Challenged ability to provide precise long-term forecasts

Mitigation:Aiming for formula rate to achieve more linearity and predictable recovery, enabling more consistent disclosures.

What to watch in Q1 FY26

Rate Case Progress

Next quarter (Q1 FY26)
Current Staff and intervener testimony expected next month; hearings scheduled to begin in May.
Target Progress in hearings and potential for constructive outcome.

Why it matters

The rate case outcome, including the implementation of a formula rate, is critical for reducing regulatory lag and ensuring appropriate cost recovery for grid investments.

Our rate case remains on track, staff and intervener testimony is expected next month with hearings scheduled to begin in May.

Find out whether PNW delivers this. Inve re-checks your case every morning.

Q&A highlights

Update on IRP planning timing and how to think about incremental transmission and gas generation opportunities beyond current disclosures, especially regarding the uncommitted load.

An updated 15-year IRP will be filed mid-year, reflecting known and committed demand, including TSMC and organic growth. It will not include uncommitted queue negotiations. Any agreements from the uncommitted queue would be incremental to the IRP and current capital plan.

“But the key is, it will continue to show the robust and strong growth over the long term and the amount of generation and transmission needed to be able to serve this growth.”

asked by Fei She · answered by Theodore Geisler

3 min read 7 chapters

Detailed narrative

Operational Excellence and Peak Demand Management

Pinnacle West demonstrated strong operational results in 2025, serving a new system peak of 8,648 megawatts on August 7, an increase of over 400 megawatts from the prior year. The generating fleet performed exceptionally well, with the Palo Verde nuclear plant achieving a 100% summertime capacity factor and receiving a 2025 INPO excellence award. Safety and reliability remain top priorities, particularly through the third hottest summer on record.

Customer Experience and Digital Innovation

The company made meaningful progress in customer satisfaction, ending 2025 in the top quartile nationally for residential customers and second quartile for business customers, as measured by Escalent. Digital experience also ranked in the first quartile nationally in J.D. Power's study. Innovations like an AI-powered high bill analyzer were deployed to help customers manage energy usage and costs, reflecting a focus on affordability and service.

Economic Growth and Large Load Customers

Arizona's economy continues to see robust growth, driven by commercial and industrial customers, including chip manufacturing and data centers. TSMC is significantly expanding its footprint with multiple fabs under construction or in development, and 900 additional acres acquired for future growth. This large load demand, combined with strong residential growth (over 34,000 new meters installed for the second consecutive year), underpins the company's long-term sales growth outlook of 5% to 7% through 2030.

Grid Expansion and Infrastructure Investments

Pinnacle West is actively expanding its grid infrastructure to support this rapid growth. Over 400 megawatts of APS-owned resources, including new gas units, battery storage, and solar, were completed ahead of schedule. The Red Hawk gas expansion is on track for 2028 completion, with plans for up to 2 gigawatts of additional gas capacity by 2030. The company is also monitoring the upsized Transwestern's Southwest Desert Pipeline expansion, critical for regional demand.

Regulatory Matters and Rate Case Progress

The company's rate case remains on track, with staff and intervener testimony expected next month and hearings scheduled for May. Management values collaboration with the commission and stakeholders to support Arizona's growth, reduce regulatory lag, and ensure appropriate cost allocation. The recent UNS gas case decision, which included a formula rate, was viewed as generally constructive, though material differences exist for APS's situation.

Financial Performance and Cost Management

For full year 2025, the company delivered earnings of $5.05 per share, despite a $0.71 weather-driven drag compared to 2024. Weather-normalized sales growth was 5% for the full year, with 2% residential and 7.5% C&I growth. Pinnacle West achieved a 3.3% year-over-year decrease in O&M per megawatt hour in 2025 and expects further reductions in 2026, emphasizing cost efficiencies and operational excellence.

Financing Strategy and Liquidity

The capital program is supported by a disciplined mix of debt and equity, with 2026 equity needs largely derisked by nearly $500 million already priced. The company expanded its revolving borrowing capacity by $550 million and extended core credit facilities to 2031, enhancing liquidity. Management is exploring alternative financing sources, including customer financing and federal grants, to support its growing capital investment program.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.