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    PNW
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    PINNACLE WEST CAPITAL Q4 FY25 earnings call PNW

    Feb 25, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Pinnacle West Capital Corporation Q4 FY25 — Strong Demand Growth and Grid Expansion

    Pinnacle West delivered strong operational and financial results in Q4 and full year 2025, driven by robust demand growth from large industrial customers like TSMC and data centers, alongside consistent residential expansion. The company is actively investing in grid infrastructure and pursuing a constructive regulatory outcome for its rate case, including a formula rate, to support continued growth and enhance financial predictability. Management is focused on cost efficiencies and managing financing needs amidst significant capital deployment.

    Highlights

    5
    • Achieved full year 2025 earnings of $5.05 per share, landing in the upper half of updated guidance.

    • Experienced 6.8% weather-normalized sales growth in Q4 FY25, driving full year weather-normalized sales growth of 5%.

    • Achieved 2.4% total customer growth in 2025, installing over 34,000 new meters for the second consecutive year.

    • Successfully completed over 400 megawatts of APS-owned resources ahead of schedule, including new gas units and battery storage.

    • Palo Verde nuclear plant operated at 100% summertime capacity factor and received a 2025 INPO excellence award.

    Concerns

    3
    • Full year 2025 EPS of $5.05 was a decline from $5.24 in 2024, primarily due to a $0.71 weather-driven drag.

    • Q4 FY25 results were partially offset by milder than normal weather, higher financing costs, and increased pension and OPEB expenses.

    • Regulatory lag continues to impact the ability to consistently translate top-line growth to bottom-line growth, putting pressure on FFO to debt metrics.

    Guidance & targets

    6
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Annual Earnings Per Share
    $4.55 to $4.75 per share
    high materiality
    High
    Weather-Normalized Sales Growth
    4% to 6%
    medium materiality
    High
    Long-Term Sales Growth
    5% to 7%
    high materiality
    High
    O&M per Megawatt Hour
    further reduce
    medium materiality
    High
    Rate Base Growth
    7% to 9%
    high materiality
    High
    Equity Needs
    largely derisked
    medium materiality
    High

    Operational metrics

    14
    Earnings Per Share
    $0.13vs. $0.06 loss in Q4 2024
    Q4 FY25

    Reflects continued vitality, strong operational execution, and sustained cost management.

    Earnings Per Share
    $5.05vs. $5.24 in 2024
    FY25

    Landed in the upper half of updated guidance range. Decline primarily weather-driven.

    Weather-Normalized Sales Growth
    6.8%
    Q4 FY25

    Driving full year weather-normalized sales growth of 5%.

    Weather-Normalized Sales Growth
    5%
    FY25

    Included 2% residential growth and 7.5% commercial and industrial growth for the year.

    Residential Sales Growth
    2%
    FY25

    Part of 5% full year weather-normalized sales growth.

    Commercial and Industrial Sales Growth
    7.5%
    FY25

    Part of 5% full year weather-normalized sales growth.

    Total Customer Growth
    2.4%
    FY25

    At the high end of guidance range, reflecting new businesses and residents.

    New Meters Installed
    34,000second consecutive year
    FY25

    Highest level in 20 years, reflecting strong residential growth.

    System Peak Demand
    8,648over 400 MW higher than prior year
    August 7, 2025

    Set a new system peak, served with top quartile reliability.

    APS-Owned Resources Completed
    400ahead of schedule
    FY25

    Completed ahead of schedule, supporting demand growth.

    O&M per Megawatt Hour Decrease
    3.3%year-over-year
    FY25

    Successful achievement of cost efficiencies.

    HoldCo Debt Percentage of Total Debt
    17%
    Year-end 2025

    Within the company's target range.

    Equity Needs Priced
    $500M
    FY26

    Nearly $500 million of 2026 equity needs already priced, largely derisking financing.

    Revolving Borrowing Capacity Expansion
    $550M
    Q4 FY25

    Expansion of revolving borrowing capacity, with core credit facilities extended to 2031.

    Industry KPIs

    7
    MetricValueDetails
    Ffo to debthigh 14s%
    Retail sales growth5%%
    Regulatory rate base growth7% to 9%%
    Rto market structure reviewGenerally constructive
    New gas generation builds upgrades400MW
    Contracted large load capacity esas loas4.5GW
    Nuclear capacity factor gas forced outage factor100%%

    Orderbook & backlog

    2
    Committed Large Load Capacity4.5 GWQ4 FY25

    Reflects known and committed customer demand, including TSMC and other data centers, expected to materialize over the 15-year IRP period.

    Uncommitted Large Load Pipeline20 GWQ4 FY25

    Represents potential incremental demand beyond current plans, actively being negotiated through a subscription model. Any contracted portion would be incremental to the IRP and capital plan.

    Deals & partnerships

    2
    TSMCExpansion of semiconductor manufacturing footprint

    TSMC is expanding with a second fab moving to full production in 2027, a third fab under construction, a fourth fab and advanced packaging facility in early development, and 900 additional acres recently acquired for future expansion.

    TranswesternSouthwest Desert Pipeline expansion

    Closely monitoring progress of Transwestern's Southwest Desert Pipeline expansion, which has been upsized from 42 to 48 inches due to strong regional demand, critical for supporting Arizona's growth.

    Capital programs

    2
    Capital Program for Reliability and Growthunderway
    Funding: thoughtful mix of debt and equity

    Benefit: reliability, grid resiliency, meeting growing customer needs

    Firmly focused on reliability, grid resiliency, and meeting the growing needs of customers, supported by a disciplined financing approach.

    Red Hawk Gas Expansionon track

    Benefit: additional gas capacity of up to 2 GW commencing in 2030

    Remains on track for completion in 2028, with ongoing preparations to support additional gas capacity of up to 2 gigawatts commencing in 2030.

    Risks & headwinds

    5
    Weather-driven earnings impactFY25

    $0.71 per share year-over-year drag

    Higher financing costsQ4 FY25

    quantified

    Mitigation: Disciplined and balanced financing approach, expansion of liquidity, derisking 2026 equity needs.

    Increased pension and OPEB expensesQ4 FY25

    quantified

    Regulatory lagOngoing, particularly in 2026

    Impacts ability to consistently translate top-line growth to bottom-line growth

    Mitigation: Focus on processing rate case, advocating for formula rate to allow more prompt recovery and consistent cost recovery.

    Lumpy nature of rate casesHistorically

    Challenged ability to provide precise long-term forecasts

    Mitigation: Aiming for formula rate to achieve more linearity and predictable recovery, enabling more consistent disclosures.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    Rate Case Progress

    Next quarter (Q1 FY26)
    CurrentStaff and intervener testimony expected next month; hearings scheduled to begin in May.
    TargetProgress in hearings and potential for constructive outcome.

    Why it matters

    The rate case outcome, including the implementation of a formula rate, is critical for reducing regulatory lag and ensuring appropriate cost recovery for grid investments.

    Our rate case remains on track, staff and intervener testimony is expected next month with hearings scheduled to begin in May.

    Q&A highlights

    6

    Update on IRP planning timing and how to think about incremental transmission and gas generation opportunities beyond current disclosures, especially regarding the uncommitted load.

    An updated 15-year IRP will be filed mid-year, reflecting known and committed demand, including TSMC and organic growth. It will not include uncommitted queue negotiations. Any agreements from the uncommitted queue would be incremental to the IRP and current capital plan.

    But the key is, it will continue to show the robust and strong growth over the long term and the amount of generation and transmission needed to be able to serve this growth.

    asked by Fei She · answered by Theodore Geisler

    3 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Operational Excellence and Peak Demand Management

    Pinnacle West demonstrated strong operational results in 2025, serving a new system peak of 8,648 megawatts on August 7, an increase of over 400 megawatts from the prior year. The generating fleet performed exceptionally well, with the Palo Verde nuclear plant achieving a 100% summertime capacity factor and receiving a 2025 INPO excellence award. Safety and reliability remain top priorities, particularly through the third hottest summer on record.

    02

    Customer Experience and Digital Innovation

    The company made meaningful progress in customer satisfaction, ending 2025 in the top quartile nationally for residential customers and second quartile for business customers, as measured by Escalent. Digital experience also ranked in the first quartile nationally in J.D. Power's study. Innovations like an AI-powered high bill analyzer were deployed to help customers manage energy usage and costs, reflecting a focus on affordability and service.

    03

    Economic Growth and Large Load Customers

    Arizona's economy continues to see robust growth, driven by commercial and industrial customers, including chip manufacturing and data centers. TSMC is significantly expanding its footprint with multiple fabs under construction or in development, and 900 additional acres acquired for future growth. This large load demand, combined with strong residential growth (over 34,000 new meters installed for the second consecutive year), underpins the company's long-term sales growth outlook of 5% to 7% through 2030.

    04

    Grid Expansion and Infrastructure Investments

    Pinnacle West is actively expanding its grid infrastructure to support this rapid growth. Over 400 megawatts of APS-owned resources, including new gas units, battery storage, and solar, were completed ahead of schedule. The Red Hawk gas expansion is on track for 2028 completion, with plans for up to 2 gigawatts of additional gas capacity by 2030. The company is also monitoring the upsized Transwestern's Southwest Desert Pipeline expansion, critical for regional demand.

    05

    Regulatory Matters and Rate Case Progress

    The company's rate case remains on track, with staff and intervener testimony expected next month and hearings scheduled for May. Management values collaboration with the commission and stakeholders to support Arizona's growth, reduce regulatory lag, and ensure appropriate cost allocation. The recent UNS gas case decision, which included a formula rate, was viewed as generally constructive, though material differences exist for APS's situation.

    06

    Financial Performance and Cost Management

    For full year 2025, the company delivered earnings of $5.05 per share, despite a $0.71 weather-driven drag compared to 2024. Weather-normalized sales growth was 5% for the full year, with 2% residential and 7.5% C&I growth. Pinnacle West achieved a 3.3% year-over-year decrease in O&M per megawatt hour in 2025 and expects further reductions in 2026, emphasizing cost efficiencies and operational excellence.

    07

    Financing Strategy and Liquidity

    The capital program is supported by a disciplined mix of debt and equity, with 2026 equity needs largely derisked by nearly $500 million already priced. The company expanded its revolving borrowing capacity by $550 million and extended core credit facilities to 2031, enhancing liquidity. Management is exploring alternative financing sources, including customer financing and federal grants, to support its growing capital investment program.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.