Rigetti (RGTI) Q2 FY26 earnings call: guidance and Q&A

Rigetti continues to demonstrate technical leadership with its Cepheus-1-108Q system, one of the highest qubit count gate-based quantum computers globally, maintaining median single qubit gate fidelity of ~99.9% and median 2-qubit gate fidelity of ~99.1% with gate speeds around 60 nanoseconds. The company is focused on improving coherence times (currently 25-30 microseconds) by roughly 2-3x over the next several years through chip design, material initiatives (e.g., niobium/tantalum capping with Fermilab), and fabrication process refinements. The long-term objective is to reach approximately 1,000 qubits, 99.9% 2-qubit gate fidelities, and gate speeds below 40 nanoseconds in roughly 3 years, leveraging its modular chiplet-based architecture.

A Letter of Intent (LOI) with the U.S. Department of Commerce for up to $100 million in CHIPS Act funding over 3 years further validates Rigetti's superconducting chiplet-based approach. This prospective partnership aims to accelerate R&D, tackle key scaling bottlenecks in multichip architectures, and advance multiple generations of quantum processors and control electronics at Fab-1. The funding, which would involve an equity stake for the department, is seen as strategically significant for national security and strengthening domestic industry, aligning with the administration's broader quantum computing investments.

Rigetti announced an expanded collaboration with HPE and the Pittsburgh Supercomputing Center to develop a hybrid quantum-classical supercomputer, integrating a 9-qubit Novera system with an HPE-powered supercomputing environment. This initiative, funded by an NSF grant, will allow researchers to develop and test hybrid workloads on real hardware. The company also secured Novera QPU sales to the University of Saskatchewan and a large Japanese conglomerate, alongside continued progress on the $8.4 million C-DAC order for a 108-qubit system in India, reflecting growing demand for its on-premises systems.

The quantum computing market remains early-stage, with revenue variability influenced by system delivery timing and government projects. However, global investment is expanding, led by governments (e.g., U.K.'s ProQure initiative) and increasingly complemented by commercial interest across industries like materials, logistics, and financial services. Rigetti maintains a disciplined capital deployment strategy, directing the majority of spending towards core R&D activities to advance its technology platform, with the CHIPS Act funding expected to further reinforce this approach while being mindful of potential dilution.

Rigetti's Fremont Fab-1, a 150-millimeter facility, currently has ample capacity for quantum chip production, with 9-qubit chiplets measuring approximately 6mm by 6mm. While capacity is not a concern, the company is exploring options for upgrading the fab to enhance capability, particularly in areas like automation and advanced equipment, to support future chiplet designs (e.g., 36-qubit chiplets) and the roadmap towards 1,000 qubits and beyond. Investments in dilution refrigeration and infrastructure are also underway to support higher qubit count systems.