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Banco Santander (SAN) FY25 earnings call: guidance

Earnings call· Dec 2025 (FY25)· Financials· Feb 3, 2026

Source: earnings call transcript

Executive summary

Banco Santander FY25 — Record Results and Strategic Webster Acquisition

Banco Santander delivered record full-year 2025 results, driven by strong customer growth, improved efficiency, and robust capital generation. The company announced the strategic acquisition of Webster Financial Corporation, a bolt-on transaction expected to significantly enhance U.S. profitability and efficiency, accelerating the group's transformation and hard currency earnings mix. Management reiterated its commitment to substantial shareholder returns while maintaining strong capital levels.

Highlights

5
  • Annual profit hit a record EUR 14.1 billion in FY25, up 12% YoY (15% ex-Argentina).

  • Customer base grew by 8 million to 100 million.

  • Efficiency improved to almost 41% and RoTE post AT1 increased to 16.3%.

  • CET1 ratio reached an all-time high of 13.5%, up 70 bps in FY25.

  • Shareholder value creation (TNAV + dividend per share) grew by 14%.

Concerns

1
  • Restructuring and integration costs

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Shareholder Distribution
at least EUR 10 billion
high materiality
High
UK RoTE (TSB)
16%
medium materiality
High
Group CET1 Ratio (post Webster closing)
12.8% to 13%
high materiality
High
U.S. EPS Accretion (Webster acquisition)
7% to 8%
high materiality
High
U.S. RoTE (combined with Webster)
18%
high materiality
High
Webster Acquisition Cost Synergies
close to EUR 800 million pretax
high materiality
High
Combined U.S. Efficiency Ratio
below 40%
high materiality
High
Group CET1 Ratio
above 13%
high materiality
High
Group RoTE
in excess of 20%
high materiality
High
Revenue Growth (FY26 ex-M&A)
mid-single digit
medium materiality
High
Revenue Growth (FY26 including M&A)
double digit
medium materiality
High
Fee Growth vs NII Growth (FY26 ex-M&A)
fee growth higher and surpassing net interest income growth
medium materiality
High
Cost (FY26 ex-M&A)
lower in absolute terms
medium materiality
High
Cost of Risk (FY26 ex-M&A)
broadly stable
medium materiality
High
Attributable Profit (FY26 ex-M&A)
increase
medium materiality
High
CET1 Ratio (FY26 ex-M&A)
close to 13% (12.8% to 13%)
high materiality
High
Revenue Growth (FY27)
double digits
medium materiality
High
Net Profit Growth (FY27)
mid-teens
medium materiality
High
CET1 Ratio (FY27)
over 13%
high materiality
High

Segment performance

SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
Retail
Profit grew 9% year-on-year with cost declining in real terms, reflecting progress on transformation and tech platform deployment.
Cost-to-income ratio: 39%Active customers growth: ~2%Cost to serve reduction: ~4%
—9%—almost 80% post AT1 RoTE
Consumer
Delivered strong financial performance supported by solid NII growth and improved cost of risk, driven by scaling Openbank and expanding partnerships.
NII growth: 5% YoY
—8%——
CIB
Focused on markets where they have invested to build a world-class franchise, resulting in record revenue and strong fee growth while maintaining a low risk profile.
Fee growth: high single-digit
record year——18% RoTE
Wealth
Profit was up on the back of strong commercial activity and double-digit fee growth, supported by global private banking platform.
Fee growth: double-digit
—27%——
Payments
Capturing scale and growing opportunity through global platforms, operating on both sides of the value chain.
Volume growth: 9%PagoNxt EBITDA margin: >34%
————
Santander U.S. (stand-alone)
Made huge progress in building a sustainable and more profitable model, being one of the top countries in value creation for Santander shareholders.
PAT: 1.7Openbank deposits: EUR 5 billionOpenbank customers: >200,000CIB RoTE: 18%
—over 30% (2023-2025 profit growth)—15% adjusted RoTE
Santander U.S. (combined with Webster)
The acquisition of Webster will accelerate transformation, making the combined entity best-in-class in profitability and efficiency among U.S. banks.
Efficiency ratio: below 40% by 2028Deposit share (Northeast): 8% (top 5 position)National retail and commercial bank by assets: top 10Loan-to-deposit ratio: ~100%Combined cost of deposits: 2.4% (down from 2.7%)Combined cost of risk: ~1.3% (vs 1.6% stand-alone)
———18% RoTE by 2028

Product announcements

ProductTypeDetails
Openbankexpansion
TNAVexpansion
Santander Consumer Finance and Open Banking Europemilestone

Deals & partnerships

Webster Financial Corporation Acquisition of Webster Financial Corporation to strengthen U.S. Northeast franchise. EUR 12.2 billion (65% cash, 35% Santander shares)

Scales U.S. Northeast franchise to 10th largest retail/commercial bank by assets, 5th largest by deposits in Northeast footprint. Highly complementary businesses, Webster brings lower cost of deposits and strong commercial franchise.

Santander Polska Disposal of Santander Polska. 2.2x price to tangible book

Disposal completed at the beginning of January.

TSB Acquisition of TSB.

Deployed some of the excess capital into this acquisition.

Risks & headwinds

Restructuring and integration costs 2026

around onetime cost synergies

Mitigation:Will be largely booked against the gain on sale from Poland.

What to watch next

Webster acquisition closing

before year-end '26
Current Announced
Target Closed

Why it matters

The Webster acquisition is a major strategic step expected to significantly boost U.S. profitability and efficiency, impacting group-level targets.

We expect to complete the transaction before year-end '26 with a joint integration team led by John Ciulla, who is the current Chairman and CEO of Webster and will become the CEO of Santander Bank NA with Christiana Riley remaining Country Head of Santander U.S.

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Detailed narrative

FY25 Performance Highlights

Banco Santander reported a record annual profit of EUR 14.1 billion in FY25, marking a 12% year-over-year increase (15% excluding Argentina). This strong performance was underpinned by solid underlying growth across all businesses, with revenue up 4% in constant euros and fee income growing 9%.

The company achieved an efficiency ratio of almost 41% and a post-AT1 RoTE of 16.3%, while strengthening its balance sheet with an all-time high CET1 ratio of 13.5%.

Strategic Webster Acquisition

Santander announced the acquisition of Webster Financial Corporation for EUR 12.2 billion, a strategic bolt-on transaction aimed at accelerating the transformation of Santander U.S. This acquisition is expected to significantly enhance U.S. profitability, targeting an 18% RoTE by 2028, and deliver 7-8% EPS accretion in 2028.

The deal is projected to position the combined U.S. entity as a top 3 cost-efficient and top 5 profitable bank among the top 25 U.S. banks.

Synergies and Integration Benefits

The Webster acquisition is anticipated to generate close to EUR 800 million in pre-tax cost synergies by the end of 2028, primarily through headquarters efficiencies, branch optimization, and technology integration. The combination will improve the U.S. business's loan-to-deposit ratio to approximately 100% and reduce the combined cost of deposits from 2.7% to 2.4%.

The transaction also brings a lower risk profile, reducing the combined U.S. cost of risk to around 1.3%.

Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

The company reaffirmed its commitment to distribute at least EUR 10 billion to shareholders through share buybacks for 2025 and 2026. A new EUR 5 billion buyback program was approved, funded by EUR 3.2 billion from the Santander Polska sale and EUR 1.8 billion from H2 2025 results, commencing immediately.

The Webster acquisition, financed 65% cash and 35% shares, is expected to yield a return on invested capital (ROIC) of nearly 15%, aligning with the company's capital hierarchy.

U.S. Business Transformation and Outlook

Santander U.S. has demonstrated strong organic progress, with profits growing over 30% from 2023 to 2025 and achieving a 15% adjusted RoTE. The Webster acquisition is considered a crucial step to achieve best-in-class profitability and efficiency in the U.S. market.

The group expects to achieve an overall RoTE in excess of 20% by 2028, with the Webster deal increasing the share of hard currency loans to 80% of the total group portfolio, enhancing long-term value creation.

FY26 and FY27 Outlook

Management outlined expectations for 2026 as a transition year, with revenue (ex-M&A) projected to grow mid-single digit in constant euros, costs to be lower, and cost of risk broadly stable, leading to higher attributable profit. Including M&A, revenue growth is expected to be double-digit. For 2027, guidance includes double-digit revenue growth, mid-teens net profit growth, and a CET1 ratio exceeding 13%.

Summary of the company's earnings call; see how call summaries are prepared. Not investment advice.