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    SGHC
    Earnings call· Dec 2025(Q4 FY25)

    Super Group (SGHC) Q4 FY25 earnings call SGHC

    Feb 24, 2026 Source

    Executive summary

    Super Group Q4 FY25 — Record Growth and Strong FY26 Guidance

    Super Group delivered a record-breaking Q4 FY25 and full year, driven by strategic portfolio refinement and concentration on core markets, which fueled significant operating leverage. The company achieved new highs in monthly active customers and deposits, supported by technology innovations and disciplined capital allocation. Despite some sports outcome volatility, Super Group issued strong FY26 guidance, anticipating continued organic growth and a boost from the FIFA World Cup, while maintaining a focus on efficiency and shareholder returns.

    Highlights

    5
    • Monthly active customers exceeded 6.1 million in Q4 FY25, a new record, representing a 16% year-over-year increase.

    • Total revenue for FY25 reached $2.2 billion, reflecting a 22% increase compared to the previous year.

    • Adjusted EBITDA for FY25 increased 57% year-over-year to $560 million, achieving an impressive 25% margin.

    • Strong cash generation resulted in $513 million in cash at year-end, up 32% year-over-year, with a 72% EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate.

    • The Board approved an increase of the minimum quarterly dividend target from $0.04 to $0.05 per share, with the first payment in March 2026.

    Concerns

    3
    • Customer-friendly sport outcomes in December 2025 led to an estimated $20 million EBITDA impact.

    • U.K. tax increases are taking effect from April 2026, impacting future profitability.

    • The company is still refining its strategy in Nigeria, a key African market.

    Guidance & targets

    4
    CategoryTargetConfidence
    Total Revenue
    at least $2.55 billion
    high materiality
    High
    Adjusted EBITDA
    more than $680 million
    high materiality
    High
    Marketing as % of Revenue
    roughly 22%
    medium materiality
    Medium
    Minimum Quarterly Dividend Target
    $0.05 per share
    medium materiality
    High

    Segment performance

    7
    SegmentRevenueYoYQoQMargin
    Europe
    Saw strong revenue growth, led by the U.K. and Spain. Encouraged by upcoming H1 slots launch in Germany.
    23%
    U.K.
    Led Europe's strong revenue growth.
    37%
    Spain
    Revenue grew on the back of strong retention and product improvements.
    5%
    Africa
    Grew 27% for the full year 2025. Botswana outperformed, and South Africa delivered strong wagering growth and record casino volumes. Underlying strength highlighted by wager growth despite customer-friendly outcomes. Strategy in Nigeria is being assessed.
    Sports wagers: 31% growth YoYCasino wagers: 32% growth YoY
    7%
    North America (excluding U.S.)
    Canada ex-Ontario increased 15%, supported by strong customer retention and acquisition. Ontario product improvements drove record engagement and deposits. Alberta continues to show solid growth, preparing for regulation in Q2 2026.
    10%
    Canada (excluding Ontario)
    Increased, supported by strong customer retention and acquisition, coupled with improved product rollout.
    15%
    APAC
    Revenue rose despite New Zealand's 5% dip, reflecting a disciplined approach ahead of anticipated local regulations.
    6%

    Operational metrics

    17
    Monthly active customers
    6.1 million16% jump from Q4 2024
    Q4 2025

    Reached an all-time high.

    Deposits
    new highs
    Q4 2025

    Driven by casino momentum and an active sports calendar.

    Total wagering activity (sports)
    20%YoY increase
    Q4 2025

    Part of robust total wagering activity.

    Total wagering activity (casino)
    17%YoY increase
    Q4 2025

    Part of robust total wagering activity.

    Adjusted EBITDA margin
    25%compared with 19% in prior year
    FY25

    Represents an impressive margin.

    EBITDA to Free Cash Flow conversion
    72%
    FY25

    Demonstrates consistent strength of the business.

    Cash balance
    $513 millionup 32% YoY
    end of FY25

    Underscores resilience and durability of the business model.

    Shareholder returns
    $156 million
    FY25

    Part of capital allocation strategy.

    Special dividend
    in excess of $125 million
    February 2026

    Paid in February 2026.

    Sportsbook parlay wager mix
    400 basis pointsequential increase
    Q4 2025

    Resulted from improved sports promotional mechanics.

    Estimated EBITDA impact from customer-friendly outcomes
    $20 million
    December 2025

    Impacted by customer-friendly outcomes in Africa, Champions League, and English Premier League.

    Sports hold
    11.4%compared to 16% in Q4 2024
    Q4 2025

    Reflects customer-friendly outcomes in December.

    Marketing as % of revenue
    22%
    FY26

    Assumed in FY26 guidance for ongoing marketing discipline.

    Apricot EBITDA savings
    $35 million
    annualized

    Annualized projection from the Apricot transaction, savings for 2026 are baked into guidance.

    World Cup tailwinds (Nigeria)
    low single-digit
    FY26

    Expected tailwinds from the expanded World Cup schedule.

    Sports business as % of total
    20%
    current

    Helps navigate ups and downs of sports given the larger casino segment.

    Casino business as % of total
    80%
    current

    Provides stability and ability to navigate sports volatility.

    Product announcements

    3
    ProductTypeDetails
    ZAR Supercoin walletlaunch
    ZAR Supercoin exchange listingsexpansion
    AI-driven hyper-personalized bet pricingupdate

    Deals & partnerships

    1
    ApricotAcquisition of sportsbook technology platform.

    The transaction involves bringing the sportsbook technology in-house for Betway outside of Africa, gaining full control over staff and enabling further product enhancements. Final regulatory approval was received, allowing operation in various jurisdictions.

    Risks & headwinds

    4
    Customer-friendly sports outcomesDecember 2025

    estimated $20 million EBITDA impact

    Mitigation: Profits flowed through in January 2026; new AI pricing and trader initiatives are being embedded; 80% casino business helps navigate sports volatility.

    U.K. tax increasesFY26

    taking effect from April 2026

    Mitigation: Embedded in the FY26 guidance.

    Regulatory shifts (general)ongoing

    null

    Mitigation: Conservative approach around including potential impacts in guidance; navigating for the last 20 years.

    Early World Cup tournament risk on holdearly rounds of the tournament

    null

    Mitigation: Control over incentives and boosts; learned lessons from Africa Cup of Nations; new AI pricing and trader initiatives; 80% casino business provides stability.

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    5

    South Africa tax changes

    next quarter
    CurrentNo new update; operators to submit responses by end of February.
    TargetOutcome of government paper review and committee process.

    Why it matters

    Potential impact on operating environment and profitability in a key market.

    There are obviously no new update. All the operators in South Africa expect to submit their responses at the end of February to the government paper and then it goes through different committees. So we will see how that goes.

    Q&A highlights

    7

    How much did customer-friendly outcomes in December impact results, and how did that translate into profit recycling in January/February, especially between sports and casino?

    Neal Menashe estimated a $20 million EBITDA impact in December from customer-friendly sports outcomes, particularly in Africa, Champions League, and EPL. He noted that these profits flowed through in January, which was a fantastic month. He also highlighted significant growth in casino activity in Q4 2025 compared to the prior period.

    December was meaningful given that we estimate it was probably about a $20 million EBITDA impact from these customers. But obviously, it did flow through on our side in January. As Alinda said, we really had a fantastic January.

    asked by Ryan Sigdahl · answered by Neal Menashe

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Strategic Portfolio Refinement and Core Market Focus

    Super Group refined its portfolio by exiting U.S. iGaming, allowing a concentrated focus on markets with clear durable advantages. This strategy has driven record growth and operating leverage. The company continues to assess its strategy in Nigeria while exploring expansion into other African territories.

    02

    Strong Operational Performance Across Key Geographies

    Europe saw strong revenue growth of 23% year-over-year, led by a 37% increase in the U.K. Spain revenue grew 5%, and Germany is preparing for an H1 slots launch. Africa grew 27% for the full year 2025, with Q4 revenue up 7% year-over-year, driven by 31% growth in sports wagers and 32% growth in casino wagers. North America (excluding the U.S.) grew 10%, with Canada ex-Ontario up 15%.

    03

    Technology and Product Innovation Driving Engagement

    The company successfully launched the ZAR Supercoin in South Africa, the first step in a broader digital payments infrastructure, with a Supercoin wallet expected in H1 2026. Technology migration was completed in all African markets, enabling AI-driven hyper-personalized bet pricing. Product improvements, such as enhanced sports promotional mechanics for Betway ex-Africa, led to a 400 basis point sequential increase in sportsbook parlay wager mix.

    04

    Robust Financial Results and Cash Generation

    For FY25, total revenue reached $2.2 billion (+22% YoY) and Adjusted EBITDA was $560 million (+57% YoY), achieving a 25% margin. Q4 FY25 revenue grew 8% to $578 million, with Adjusted EBITDA up 11% to $139 million. The business demonstrated strong cash generation with a 72% EBITDA to free cash flow conversion rate, closing the year with $513 million in cash, up 32% year-over-year.

    05

    Disciplined Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns

    Super Group returned $156 million to shareholders in FY25, including $20 million in Q4, and paid an additional special dividend exceeding $125 million in February 2026. The Board approved an increase in the minimum quarterly dividend target from $0.04 to $0.05 per share, reflecting confidence in robust cash generation while funding organic growth.

    06

    Regulatory Approvals and Market Expansion Readiness

    The company received final regulatory approval for the Apricot transaction, which strengthens its sportsbook technology platform and is expected to generate $35 million in annualized EBITDA savings. Super Group is also preparing for regulation in Alberta, Canada, expected in Q2 2026, applying lessons learned from the Ontario transition to ensure a smooth migration and competitive market entry.

    AI-generated summary of the company’s earnings call. Not investment advice.