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ZTO
Earnings call · Jun 2026 (Q2 FY26)

ZTO Express (Cayman) Q2 FY26 earnings call ZTO

Aug 19, 2026 Source

Executive summary

ZTO Q2 FY26 — Profitability and Market Share Expansion Driven by Digitization and Cost Efficiency

ZTO Express delivered strong Q2 FY26 results, driven by strategic focus on high-quality development, market share expansion, and end-to-end cost reduction through digitization. The company successfully navigated industry shifts towards rational competition and recovered profitability, while facing headwinds from rising fuel costs and anticipated social insurance contributions. Management remains committed to sustainable growth and network stability.

Highlights

5
  • Parcel volume reached 10.49 billion, up 6.5% year-over-year.

  • Market share expanded by 0.4 percentage points.

  • Adjusted net income was RMB 3.09 billion, up 50.3% year-over-year.

  • Retail parcel volume grew 47% year-over-year, with average daily volume exceeding 11.7 million.

  • Combined unit cost of transportation and sorting decreased by RMB 0.02 year-over-year.

Concerns

3
  • Temporary cost pressures caused by oil price fluctuations, impacting per parcel transportation cost by approximately RMB 0.02 in Q2.

  • Anticipated continued fuel price impact of RMB 0.01 to RMB 0.02 per parcel in the second half of the year.

  • Potential end-to-end cost increases in the foreseeable future due to the rollout of standardized social security initiatives.

Guidance & targets

CategoryTargetConfidence
Full year parcel volume growth
6% to 10% year-over-year
high materiality
High
Annual Capital Expenditure
around RMB 6 billion
medium materiality
High
Core costs in transit operations decline
RMB 0.03
medium materiality
High
Fuel price impact on per parcel transportation cost
RMB 0.01 to RMB 0.02
medium materiality
Medium

ZTO operating KPIs by quarter

ZTO operating KPIs stated on its earnings calls, by fiscal quarter
KPI Dec 2025 Q4 FY25 Mar 2026 Q1 FY26This call Jun 2026 Q2 FY26Change vs prior quarter
Parcel volume —
9.67B Parcel volume reached 9.67 billion, up 13.2% year-over-year, significantly outpacing industry growth with market share expanding by 1.2 percentage points, further solidifying our leadership position. Source transcript
10.49B Parcel volume reached 10.49 billion, up 6.5% year-over-year with market share expanding by 0.4 percentage points, entrenching our industry leadership position. Source transcript
+8.5%
Daily retail volume
<10M In the fourth quarter, daily retail volume reached close to 10 million parcels. Source transcript
~9.7M In Q1, average daily retail parcel volume reached approximately 9.7 million, which indicates a meaningful growth rate. Source transcript
11.7M+ In the second quarter, average daily retail parcel volume exceeded 11.7 million, of which return parcels averaged approximately 9.8 million each day, increased approximately 80% year-over-year. Source transcript
—

Operating figures the company states on every call, checked against each call's transcript. Click a figure to read the sentence. A dash means it was not stated that quarter.

Risks & headwinds

Temporary cost pressures from oil price fluctuations Q2 FY26 and H2 FY26

Impacted per parcel transportation cost by approximately RMB 0.02 in Q2; diesel cost rose around 24% in Q2. Expected RMB 0.01 to RMB 0.02 impact in H2.

Mitigation:Leveraging opportunistic reserves of oil at lower cost, expanding fleet of natural gas trucks, and actively exploring deployment of electrical vehicles suitable for express delivery operations.

End-to-end cost increases from standardized social security initiatives for flex workers Foreseeable future (stepped rollout)

Inevitably bring about end-to-end cost increases in the foreseeable future.

Mitigation:Complete coverage will strengthen network stability, reduce courier turnover, and further reinforce last-mile service quality in the long run. ZTO upholds the core philosophy of shared success and encourages network partners to provide legitimate rights to frontline workers.

What to watch in Q3 FY26

Fuel price impact on per parcel transportation cost

H2 FY26
Current RMB 0.02 impact in Q2
Target RMB 0.01 to RMB 0.02 impact in H2

Why it matters

Fuel costs are a significant operating expense, and management's ability to mitigate volatility directly impacts profitability.

Looking into the second half, the global environment remains highly uncertain. Unit oil price pulled back meaningfully. We expect -- the oil prices are not necessarily going to pull back meaningfully. So we expect fuel price continue to weigh on per parcel transportation cost by about RMB 0.01 to RMB 0.02.

Q&A highlights

Details on ZTO's high-level strategic thinking on digitalization and AI, specific use cases in operational workflows, and where it has been implemented.

Chairman Lai and Sophie Li explained that AI's core value for ZTO is leveraging data to optimize network-wide costs, creating a self-reinforcing loop of lower cost and higher efficiency. They detailed AI applications in transportation (intelligent routing, 120% YoY growth in route-coordinated parcel volume, 15% fall in stranded parcels), transit centers (Smart Park system, 4% unloading efficiency increase, 88.4% anomaly traceability), management (data agent cutting routing analysis time by >90%), pickup/delivery (precision address system for >250,000 couriers with 99.98% accuracy), customer service (>90% merchant inquiries resolved by AI), and network management (standardized best practice playbooks to >6,000 outlets with 88% response rate).

“[Interpreted] For ZTO, the core value of the AI lives in leveraging data from over 100 million daily parcels and our mature network operations to continuously optimize network-wide costs. It creates a self-reinforcing loop of lower cost and higher efficiency, building a digital technological moat that is not easily replicated.”

asked by Steve Qiu · answered by Sophie Li

2 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Industry Shift and Regulatory Environment

The express delivery industry is fundamentally shifting from a singular focus on scale and price wars towards greater emphasis on value creation, network stability, and tangible benefits for frontline partners. Anti-involution policies are consistently implemented, safeguarding healthy competitive order and balancing interests across headquarters, franchisees, and frontline practitioners. ZTO maintains a long-term mindset, prioritizing steady profit increases for network outlets, sustained earnings growth for couriers, and healthy corporate development over short-term scale gains.

Digitization and AI-Driven Efficiency

ZTO leverages AI and digitization across its entire operational chain, from pickup to delivery, to continuously optimize network-wide costs and enhance efficiency. Key applications include a proprietary intelligent routing and dispatch system covering 6 common scenarios, which grew route-coordinated parcel volume by 120% YoY and reduced stranded parcels by 15%. The Smart Park system monitors transit centers in real-time, flagging 28 types of anomalies, leading to a 4% increase in unloading efficiency and 88.4% anomaly traceability coverage. A proprietary data agent cuts routing analysis time by over 90% for managers.

Retail and Reverse Logistics Growth

Retail parcel volume grew 47% year-over-year, with average daily retail parcel volume exceeding 11.7 million. Return parcels specifically averaged approximately 9.8 million each day, increasing approximately 80% year-over-year. This high-value segment, particularly reverse logistics, is a key driver for product diversification and overall per parcel profitability, as it continues to generate higher per parcel profit than standardized e-commerce parcels, effectively lifting the company's overall profitability.

Social Insurance and Workforce Management

Regulators are advancing a multi-tiered social security system for flexible work arrangements, including express delivery personnel, with a stepped rollout approach. While this will inevitably lead to end-to-end cost increases in the foreseeable future, ZTO believes complete coverage will strengthen network stability, reduce courier turnover, and reinforce last-mile service quality in the long run. The company supports these regulatory efforts, which align with its core philosophy of shared success and protecting frontline workers' rights.

Cost Management and Fuel Price Volatility

Despite rising fuel prices (diesel up ~24% in Q2) which added approximately RMB 0.02 to per parcel transportation cost, ZTO's combined unit sorting and transportation costs decreased by RMB 0.02 (3.2%) year-over-year due to digitization and lean operations. Unit cost of line-haul transportation decreased 3.7% to RMB 0.32, and unit sorting costs decreased 2.6% to RMB 0.24. To counter fuel price volatility, the company is leveraging opportunistic oil reserves, expanding its natural gas truck fleet, and exploring suitable electrical vehicles.

Strategic Priorities and Network Empowerment

ZTO's strategy focuses on improving integrated competitiveness across service, market share, and cost. This includes enhancing door-to-door capabilities for brand differentiation, refining customer segmentation to increase small- to medium-sized customers and value-added services, and establishing benchmarks for efficiency gains. The company aims to empower franchisee partners through digitalization, standardize policies, and customize improvement plans for loss-making outlets to foster a mutually beneficial ecosystem of shared prosperity.

AI-generated summary of the company's earnings call. Not investment advice.