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What Builders FirstSource promised, and what happened

Guidance Tracker · every commitment management made on a call, tracked from the quarter it was made

Guidance

What management said, and what became of it

12 of 17 judged targets kept · 20 open · verdicts reflect calls analysed to Jun 2026.

TargetOriginal wordingSaidLatest callVerdict
Adjusted EBITDA$300 million to $350 millionMar 2026Jun 2026:Adjusted EBITDA was $329 million, down 35% and adjusted EBITDA margin was 8.5%, down 350 basis points primarily due to lower gross profit and reduced operating leverage on the sales decline.
Call transcript, Jun 2026 · no direct link
Achieved
Adjusted EBITDA$1.3 billion to $1.7 billionDec 2025Jun 2026:As a result, we are guiding net sales in the range of $14 billion to $14.8 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $1 billion to $1.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.1% to 8.1%.
Call transcript, Jun 2026 · no direct link
Revised Down
Adjusted EBITDA$275 million to $325 millionJun 2026Jun 2026:For Q3, we expect net sales to be billion to $3.6 billion to $3.9 billion and adjusted EBITDA to be $275 million to $325 million.
Call transcript, Jun 2026 · no direct link
New

A verdict describes what became of management’s own words in later analysed calls. “Delayed” is a change of date, “went quiet” a target the calls stopped mentioning. None of it is a judgement on the investment. The methodology sets out how verdicts are recorded.

The full ledger

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The rest of the ledger

Pro opens all 37 tracked commitments for Builders FirstSource

Above is what the last two calls moved. Pro adds every quarter's revision, the source quote behind each one, and the topics management has stopped answering.