AGI Greenpac Limited — Q3 FY26 earnings call

Call held 29 Jan 2026

Management summary

AGI Greenpac reported a modest 5.4% YoY revenue growth for 9M FY26, reaching ₹1,923 crore, while PAT grew 4.4% to ₹236 crore. Q3 FY26 saw revenue of ₹634 crore, impacted by subdued demand in the beer segment due to extended rains and extreme winters. The company remains focused on strategic capacity expansions, including a new 500 TPD greenfield container glass facility and a 1.6 billion cans aluminum beverage can plant, with significant CAPEX planned for FY27.

Highlights

  • 9M FY26 Revenue from operations stood at ₹1,923 crore, up 5.4% YoY from ₹1,824 crore in 9M FY25.

  • 9M FY26 EBITDA was ₹484 crore, a slight decline from ₹497 crore in 9M FY25 (-2.6% YoY).

  • 9M FY26 Profit After Tax increased to ₹236 crore, up 4.4% YoY from ₹226 crore.

  • Q3 FY26 Revenue from operations was ₹634 crore, with EBITDA of ₹154 crore and PAT of ₹71 crore.

  • Container glass sales volume increased ~10% QoQ but was slightly lower by 2% YoY in Q3 FY26, with 95% capacity utilization.

  • Specialty glass sales volume was largely flat QoQ but up more than 13% YoY in Q3 FY26, with ~85% capacity utilization.

  • The container glass de-bottlenecking project is fully completed, increasing capacity to 1,900 tons per day, ahead of schedule.

  • Net bank debt as of December 31, 2025, stood at approximately ₹389 crore, after prepaying remaining ECB loan.

Key financials

2 periods

Q3 FY26

  • Revenue
    ₹634 Cr
  • EBITDA
    ₹154 Cr
  • PAT
    ₹71 Cr

9M

  • FY26 Revenue
    ₹1,923 Cr
    YoY +5.4%
  • FY26 EBITDA
    ₹484 Cr
    YoY -2.6%
  • FY26 PAT
    ₹236 Cr
    YoY +4.4%

What they filed

Q1 FY27: revenue up 14.1%, net profit up 11.2% against the same quarter last year.

₹ Cr · quarterly
Line itemQ2 FY25Q3 FY25Q4 FY25Q1 FY26Q2 FY26Q3 FY26Q4 FY26Q1 FY27
Revenue599 658 705 688 602 +1%634 −4%742 +5%785 +14%
EBITDA154 169 154 142 150 −3%150 −11%153 −1%175 +23%
Net profit72 91 97 89 76 +6%71 −22%115 +19%99 +11%
How to read this

₹ crore, as filed. The percentage beside a figure is the change against the same quarter a year earlier — never the quarter before, which would make every seasonal business look like it collapses and booms each year.

Segment breakdown

SegmentQ3 FY26 Volume Growth QoQQ3 FY26 Volume Growth YoYQ3 FY26 Sales Realization QoQQ3 FY26 Sales Realization YoY
Container Glass10%-2%₹-450/ton₹-1,200/ton
Specialty Glass0%13%₹900/ton₹6,800/ton
Commercial Glass————

Guidance & targets

Profitability

  • EBITDA Margins (annualized, excluding non-operating income) Profitability · 12-18 months · High confidence 24% to 25%
    EBITDA margins were lower compared to the same period last year, mainly due to the combined effect of muted volumes in certain product category and adjustments in average sales realisations. That said, we continue to maintain our 12-18 months margins guidance excluding non-operating income in the range of 24% to 25%, as margins are best assessed on an annualised basis rather than quarter-to-quarter.

    — Rajesh Khosla, President & CEO

  • EBITDA per ton (excluding non-operating income) Profitability · Ongoing · High confidence Rs.9,500 to Rs.10,500
    Yes, as you can see, we have been giving guidance EBITDA per ton ranging Rs.9,500 to Rs. 10,500 and these are excluding other non-operating incomes.

    — Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO

  • Specialty Glass EBITDA percentage Profitability · Ongoing · High confidence 25% to 26%
    No, ma'am, we do not disclose the numbers of EBITDA per ton. So, it is just the percentage EBITDA, which is there, and it is in line with whatever we have been achieving; I can say it is close to around 25% to 26% number in this specialty glass.

    — Rajesh Khosla, President & CEO

Volume

  • Overall Volume Growth Volume · FY26 · Medium confidence 7% to 9%
    Yes, on a growth side of, I can say, volume side or on a metric ton side, I think we will be touching close to 7% to 8% to 9%, something like that, we are going to end up.

    — Rajesh Khosla, President & CEO

  • Container Glass Volume Growth Volume · FY27 · Medium confidence 3% to 4%
    Next year, we expect that we should be able to further grow on the volume side by around 3% to 4% on the container glass

    — Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO

  • Specialty Glass Volume Growth Volume · FY27 · Medium confidence 7% to 10%
    and another around 7% to 10% on the specialty glass, given the current trends of Q3, Q4, a lot of our capacities on specialty glass are also now getting picked up.

    — Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO

  • Overall Volume Growth Volume · FY27 · Medium confidence 8% to 9%
    Overall, for FY27, we expect to maintain a growth of around 8% to 9%.

    — Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO

  • Overall Volume Growth Volume · next 12-18 months · High confidence 8% to 10%
    Right. So, basically, the confidence of at least 8% to 10% volume growth and maintaining 24%-25% margins, that is there for the next 12-18 months.

    — Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO

Capacity

  • New Plant Capacity Addition Capacity · FY27-28 · High confidence 25%
    We will be adding somewhere around 25% capacity. And we expect around 15% to 17% growth happening in FY27-28 which is purely coming from the incremental capacity from the new plant.

    — Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO

Growth

  • Growth from New Plant Growth · FY27-28 · High confidence 15% to 17%
    And we expect around 15% to 17% growth happening in FY27-28 which is purely coming from the incremental capacity from the new plant.

    — Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO

Capex

  • Major Capex Spend Capex · FY27 · High confidence Rs.1,100 crores to Rs.1,200 crores
    I think the major chunk of spend will come next year and we feel that somewhere around Rs.1,100 crores to Rs.1,200 crores spend should happen next year and remaining in FY28, which will be more on the CAN side.

    — Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO

  • Q4 FY26 Additional Capex Capex · Q4 FY26 · High confidence ₹20-30 crores
    Overall, given that we have already spent over 220 crores, and considering that the de-bottlenecking of the specialty glass line is still underway, we expect to incur an additional ₹20-30 crores in Q4.

    — Sandeep Sikka, Group CFO

Risks & concerns

  • Subdued demand due to adverse weather conditions

    medium

    Extended rains and extreme winters in India led to subdued demand in Q3 FY26, particularly in the beer segment.

    Management acknowledged

  • Raw material price volatility

    medium

    Prices of commodities like oil, natural gas, and soda ash can spike temporarily due to global factors, impacting margins.

    Management acknowledged

  • Global political factors impacting raw material prices

    medium

    War situations or destabilization in regions like Venezuela or Iran can push oil prices, which is difficult to assess.

    Management acknowledged

  • Long-term decline in alcohol consumption by new generations

    low

    Analyst raised concern about GenZ/millennials drinking less alcohol; management noted this is more a Western problem, India's per-capita consumption is very low, and non-alcoholic beverage demand is growing.

    Analyst downplayed

  • QIP dilution impacting shareholder value

    low

    Analyst concerned about QIP dilution given recent share price fall; management assured focus on long-term value creation and timing of QIP based on market conditions.

    Analyst acknowledged

Areas of evasion (1)

  • specific timeline for Delhi High Court appeal decision on HNG acquisition

Q&A highlights

3 direct
Q3 Revenue Miss and Retail Entry Strategy Direct
because of the extended rains and the extreme winters, particularly in the whole of India, there has been a very subdued demand of various beverage segments, particularly in the beer segment. So, because of this subdued demand in the beer segment, because of these extended rains and a flooding in a lot of areas, so this demand has not picked up and it has been a little low than the normal demand in this period.

Analyst questioned the Q3 revenue miss against guidance and the company's retail strategy, prompting management to explain weather impacts and clarify their OEM-focused approach rather than brand building.

Asked by Anil Shah

Long-term Demand for Alcohol and Impact on Glass Business Direct
The new generation is drinking quite a less alcohol. The overall demand contraction globally has happened around 1% on the alcohol side. But, on the other side, we are talking of only one part of the business, that less of the alcohol is consumed. But, more of the non-alcohol part is being consumed.

Analyst raised a critical long-term demand concern regarding changing consumption patterns, to which management provided a nuanced view differentiating global trends from India's low per-capita consumption and growth in non-alcoholic beverages.

Asked by Darshil Jhaveri

QIP Plans and Funding for New Projects Direct
I think the whole rationale for the QIP resolution is that we should have an enabling resolution in place and the approvals of the shareholders. So, whenever we feel the time, the price and markets are ready, we can do. But, in the interim, we are in the process of tying up the entire debt which is required to complete this project.

Analyst questioned the QIP plans given the recent share price fall and potential dilution, leading management to clarify that QIP is an enabling resolution and they are currently securing debt, prioritizing shareholder value and timing.

Asked by Praveen Sharma

3 min read 6 chapters

Detailed narrative

Q3 FY26 Performance and 9M FY26 Overview

AGI Greenpac reported Q3 FY26 revenue of ₹634 crore, with EBITDA at ₹154 crore and PAT at ₹71 crore. For the nine months ended December 31, 2025, revenue grew 5.4% YoY to ₹1,923 crore from ₹1,824 crore in 9M FY25. EBITDA for 9M FY26 was ₹484 crore, a slight decrease from ₹497 crore in the prior year, while PAT increased 4.4% to ₹236 crore. The Q3 performance was impacted by subdued demand in the beer segment due to extended rains and extreme winters.

Segmental Performance and Realizations

In Q3 FY26, container glass sales volume increased by approximately 10% QoQ but was 2% lower YoY, maintaining strong capacity utilization at 95%. Sales realization for container glass decreased by ₹450 per ton QoQ and ₹1,200 per ton YoY, primarily due to contractual adjustments linked to raw material costs. Specialty glass saw flat QoQ volume but a 13% YoY increase, with capacity utilization around 85%. Realization for specialty glass improved significantly by ₹900 per ton QoQ and ₹6,800 per ton YoY.

Capacity Expansion and Greenfield Projects

The container glass de-bottlenecking project is fully completed, increasing capacity to 1,900 tons per day, ahead of the March 2026 timeline. The specialty glass capacity expansion to 200 tons per day is on track for completion by March 2026. The greenfield container glass facility in Madhya Pradesh (500 TPD) is advancing, with land acquisition complete and civil construction underway, targeting commissioning by March 2027. The strategic entry into the aluminum beverage can segment is also on schedule, with equipment procurement in final stages for a 1.6 billion cans annual capacity.

Financial Strength and CAPEX Plans

The company remains financially strong, having prepaid its remaining ECB loan in December 2025, resulting in nil ECB borrowings. Net bank debt as of December 31, 2025, stood at approximately ₹389 crore. For FY27, AGI Greenpac expects a major CAPEX spend of ₹1,100-1,200 crores, with remaining spend in FY28 focused on the CAN side. An additional ₹20-30 crores is expected to be incurred in Q4 FY26 for ongoing projects.

Guidance on Growth and Margins

Management reiterated its guidance for EBITDA margins to be maintained in the range of 24% to 25% on an annualized basis for the next 12-18 months, excluding non-operating income. For FY26, overall volume growth is expected to be around 7% to 9%. Looking ahead to FY27, container glass volume is projected to grow 3% to 4%, and specialty glass 7% to 10%, leading to an overall volume growth of 8% to 9%. The new plant is expected to contribute 15% to 17% growth in FY27-28.

Retail Diversification and Raw Material Outlook

AGI Greenpac is expanding its retail presence by offering end-to-end services as an OEM to brand owners, providing filled products in its bottles through outsourced activities. This strategy aims to strengthen command over its products and improve customer relationships, without building its own brand. On raw materials, soda ash prices have stabilized after the anti-dumping duty investigation. Oil prices are expected to remain within a band, influenced by global supply dynamics and geopolitical events, which management believes will not derail input costs significantly.

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