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    Cummins India Limited

    CUMMINSIND
    Capital Goods·29 May 2025
    Management Summary

    Cummins India reported a strong FY25 with 15% revenue growth and 16% PBT growth, driven by robust domestic demand and improved gross margins. While Q4 FY25 saw some domestic Powergen slowdown due to prior year's pre-buy and CPCB IV+ transition, the company anticipates double-digit revenue growth in FY26, supported by broad-based demand across segments and ongoing cost optimization efforts. Global uncertainties and competitive pricing in the new emission standard market remain areas of focus.

    Highlights

    5
    • FY25 sales grew 15% YoY to INR 10,166 crores, driven by 18% domestic sales growth and 6% export growth.

    • FY25 Profit Before Tax (PBT) increased 16% YoY to INR 2,496 crores.

    • Q4 FY25 exports surged 39% YoY to INR 479 crores, with low horsepower exports up 51% YoY.

    • Management expects double-digit revenue growth in FY26, supported by broad-based demand across Powergen, Distribution, and Industrial segments.

    • Gross margins improved due to cost reduction efforts and favorable product mix, with management aiming for sustainability.

    Concerns

    5
    • Q4 FY25 domestic Powergen sales were 7% lower YoY and 31% lower QoQ, partly due to high pre-buy sales in the prior year.

    • CPCB IV+ volumes are currently tracking at 80-85% of CPCB II levels, not yet fully matching.

    • Pricing in the CPCB IV+ market is still settling down, with increased competitive intensity.

    • Uncertainty from changes in global tax and trade policies, and geopolitical issues, impacting export outlook.

    • Anticipated cyclical dip in the compressor segment.

    What Changed2

    vs Q1 FY26

    Guidance items2 → 4 (+2)Risks discussed3 → 4 (+1)
    Key financials

    Metrics

    9

    Periods

    3

    Headline

    1
    • Capacity Utilization
      65%

    Q4 FY25

    4
    • Sales
      ₹2,414 Cr
      YoY+6%QoQ-21%
    • Domestic Sales
      ₹1,935 Cr
      YoY+1%QoQ-25%
    • Exports
      ₹479 Cr
      YoY+39%QoQ+3%
    • Profit Before Tax
      ₹681 Cr
      YoY-3%QoQ+2%

    FY25

    4
    • Sales
      ₹10,166 Cr
      YoY+15%
    • Domestic Sales
      ₹8,395 Cr
      YoY+18%
    • Exports
      ₹1,771 Cr
      YoY+6%
    • Profit Before Tax
      ₹2,496 Cr
      YoY+16%

    Segment breakdown

    FY25 Powergen Domestic Sales
    ₹3,844 Cr Revenue₹272 Cr Low Horsepower₹733 Cr Medium Range₹376 Cr Heavy Duty₹2,463 Cr High Horsepower
    FY25 Distribution Business Sales
    ₹2,687 Cr Revenue
    FY25 Industrial Business Domestic Sales
    ₹1,668 Cr Revenue
    FY25 High Horsepower Exports
    ₹821 Cr Revenue
    FY25 Low Horsepower Exports
    ₹784 Cr Revenue
    Q4 FY25 Powergen Domestic Sales
    ₹874 Cr Revenue
    Q4 FY25 Distribution Business Sales
    ₹631 Cr Revenue
    Q4 FY25 Industrial Domestic Business Sales
    ₹379 Cr Revenue
    Q4 FY25 High Horsepower Exports
    ₹218 Cr Revenue
    Q4 FY25 Low Horsepower Exports
    ₹215 Cr Revenue
    Q4 FY25 Industrial Business Unit
    ₹168 Cr Construction₹114 Cr Rail₹14 Cr Mining₹50 Cr Compressor
    FY25 Industrial Business Unit
    ₹624 Cr Construction₹471 Cr Rail₹131 Cr Mining₹203 Cr Compressor
    List

    Order Book

    low confidence

    Pipeline

    other

    Seeing a lot of activity inquiries and orders coming in for data centers; seeing demand across segments for Powergen; some order and inquiries coming from quick commerce segments (Zepto, Blinkit); order velocity for rail has been sustaining.

    "Management noted strong inquiry and order generation across various segments, particularly in data centers and rail, but did not quantify the total order book or new inflow."

    Source:
    Q&A

    Capital allocation

    1
    high confidence
    CategoryHeadline
    Capex

    ₹230 crores

    Guidance & targets

    3
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Profitability
    Gross Margin
    sustain or better
    High
    Volume
    Powergen Segment Growth
    growing
    Medium
    Revenue
    Distribution Business Growth
    double-digit or better
    High

    What to watch in Q1 FY26

    4

    CPCB IV+ volumes vs CPCB II levels

    another quarter or 2
    Current80-85% of CPCB II volumes
    TargetMatching CPCB II numbers

    Why it matters

    Indicates the pace of market adoption and recovery for new emission standard products, crucial for Powergen segment growth.

    The volumes in CPCB IV plus are not completely matching up to CPCB II. But every quarter, we are seeing increase in the volume trend. I think another quarter or 2 to see the volumes causing CPCB II numbers, not yet.

    Risks & concerns

    4
    RiskSeverity

    Global economic uncertainties (tax, trade policies, geopolitical issues)

    Impacting export outlook and overall revenue growth confidence for FY26.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Increased competitive intensity and pricing pressure in CPCB IV+ market

    Pricing is still settling down and may take another 2-3 quarters to stabilize.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Delays in Coal India tenders and shift to private miners in the mining segment

    Impacting anticipated growth in the mining segment, with tenders not released as expected.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Cyclical dip in the compressor business

    Based on historical analysis, a dip is expected in the compressor segment.Management acknowledged

    low

    Q&A highlights

    8

    “This is largely owing to the fact that the same quarter last year had pre-buy sales of CPCB II. So this is not with respect to just this year. Last year saw higher sales because of the pre-buy. ... The volumes in CPCB IV plus are not completely matching up to CPCB II. But every quarter, we are seeing increase in the volume trend. I think another quarter or 2 to see the volumes causing CPCB II numbers, not yet.”

    Explains the Powergen segment's underperformance in Q4 and provides an update on the transition to new emission norms, indicating volumes are still below previous levels.

    asked by Parikshit Kandpal

    2 min read7 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    FY25 Performance Overview

    Cummins India delivered strong financial results for FY25, with sales reaching INR 10,166 crores, marking a 15% year-on-year increase. This growth was primarily fueled by an 18% rise in domestic sales to INR 8,395 crores, while exports also contributed with a 6% increase to INR 1,771 crores. Profit Before Tax (PBT) for the full year saw a 16% jump, totaling INR 2,496 crores, reflecting overall business strength.

    02

    Q4 FY25 Performance and Segment Dynamics

    For the quarter ended March 31, 2025, sales stood at INR 2,414 crores, a 6% increase compared to the same quarter last year, but a 21% decline sequentially. Domestic sales grew by 1% YoY to INR 1,935 crores, while exports surged by 39% YoY to INR 479 crores, notably driven by a 51% increase in low horsepower exports. The Powergen domestic segment experienced a 7% YoY decline and a 31% QoQ decline, largely attributed to high pre-buy sales in the prior year's CPCB II transition.

    03

    CPCB IV+ Transition and Market Pricing

    The transition to CPCB IV+ emission norms is ongoing, with volumes currently tracking at 80-85% of previous CPCB II levels, and full recovery is expected in another one to two quarters. Management noted that pricing in the CPCB IV+ market is still settling down amidst increased competitive intensity, and full stabilization may take up to three quarters. Despite this, the company has largely maintained its pricing.

    04

    Gross Margin and Cost Optimization

    The company reported improved gross margins for the year, a result of significant efforts in direct material cost reduction and careful pricing strategies. Management emphasized its continuous endeavor to sustain and further improve these margins through ongoing cost optimization and a favorable product mix. Capacity utilization is currently close to 65%.

    05

    Capital Expenditure and Future Outlook

    Cummins India invested approximately INR 230 crores in capital expenditure during FY25. For FY26, the company anticipates a similar level of capex, primarily focused on sustenance and upgrading existing lines. Management projects double-digit revenue growth for FY26, driven by broad-based demand across Powergen, Distribution, and Industrial segments, while remaining cautiously optimistic💬 due to global uncertainties.

    06

    Export Market and Global Uncertainties

    While exports showed strong growth in Q4 FY25, particularly in Latin America and Europe, the outlook for FY26 remains uncertain due to global tax and trade policies, as well as geopolitical issues. The company is actively working to position its products effectively in different international markets to mitigate these external risks.

    07

    Segment-Specific Trends

    The data center market continues to show strong demand with no signs of slowdown. The rail segment maintains positive order velocity. However, the mining segment is experiencing a shift towards private miners, with delays in anticipated Coal India tenders. The compressor business is expected to enter a cyclical dip based on historical analysis.

    This is an AI-generated summary of a publicly available earnings call transcript. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an endorsement. inve.money is not a SEBI-registered investment advisor. Please consult a qualified financial advisor before making any investment decisions.