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    G N F C

    GNFC
    Chemicals·11 Feb 2026
    Management Summary

    GNFC reported an improved operational income in Q3 FY26, driven by volume growth in both chemical and fertilizer segments, with fertilizer segment losses notably reduced. The company is progressing on its Rs. 2,800 crore CAPEX plan, having spent Rs. 1,000 crores by December 2025, and expects its CCPP project to contribute Rs. 82 crores net inflow upon commissioning by early Q4. While TDI prices are improving, the chemical segment faced broader pricing pressure, and raw material volatility for methanol remains a concern.

    Highlights

    5
    • Operational income improved, mainly driven by volumes in chemical as well as fertilizer.

    • Losses in the fertilizer segment have come down.

    • TDI prices are improving since January, with anti-dumping duty extended for another five years.

    • CCPP project expected to commission by end March or early April 2026, generating a net inflow of Rs. 82 crores.

    • Ammonia production is expanding by 50,000 tonnes per annum through a make-up loop.

    Concerns

    3
    • Chemical segment faced pricing pressure in most products, except TDI, during Quarter 3.

    • Uncertainty continues regarding methanol prices and availability, which is a main feed into acetic gas.

    • A slight delay in the weak nitric acid project, though it is recoupable.

    What Changed1

    vs Q4 FY26

    Guidance items3 → 8 (+5)

    Capital allocation

    2
    high confidence
    CategoryHeadline
    Capex

    ₹1,000 crores

    Liquidity

    Liquidity disclosed

    Working capital has been quite under control because of the subsidy flow. The subsidy outstanding as at the quarter is roughly Rs. 302 crores.

    Guidance & targets

    8
    CategoryTargetPriority
    Project Contribution
    CCPP Net Inflow
    Rs. 82 crores
    High
    Cost Savings
    Annual Cost Savings from A.T. Kearney
    Rs. 260-300 crores
    Medium
    Cost Savings
    Locked-in Savings from Renewable Power Purchase Agreement
    Rs. 5-7 crores
    High
    Regulatory
    Fixed Cost Revision Decision
    Decision by government
    Medium
    Capacity
    Ammonia Production Capacity Expansion
    50,000 tonnes per annum
    High
    Raw Material Sourcing
    Ammonia Purchase from Market
    35,000-40,000 tonnes
    High
    Volume Growth
    Weak Nitric Acid and Ammonium Nitrate Melt Volume Increase
    Increased volumes
    High
    Capacity Utilization
    TDI Full Capacity Utilization
    60,000-67,000 tonnes
    High

    What to watch in Q4 FY26

    5

    CCPP Commissioning & Net Contribution

    Next quarter (Q4 FY26)
    CurrentExpected by end March or early April 2026
    TargetCommissioned, generating net inflow of Rs. 82 crores

    Why it matters

    This significant new project is expected to contribute materially to profitability.

    CCPP, which is expected to commission sometime by end March or early April, which is expected to give a net inflow in terms of the contribution. At gross level, it is around Rs. 110 crores. At net level, it is going to generate around Rs. 82 crores, and net of its relevant direct cost.

    Risks & concerns

    4
    RiskSeverity

    Methanol price uncertainty and volatility

    Uncertainty on methanol still continues, affecting its availability and price, which is a main feed into acetic gas.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Pricing pressure in chemical products

    The chemical segment experienced pricing pressure in most products, except TDI, during Quarter 3.Management acknowledged

    medium

    Delay in CCPP and weak nitric acid projects

    CCPP commissioning is slightly delayed to end March/early April, and weak nitric acid has a slight recoupable delay.Management acknowledged

    low

    Increased competition in nitric acid downstream

    Several players like Deepak Nitrite and Chambal are expanding or setting up new nitric acid plants, potentially leading to oversupply.Analyst not addressed

    medium

    Q&A highlights

    8

    “So all the pricing is done on an import parity basis based on the indexes available to us, because that's the way to keep transparency in the pricing, and that's the way to find questions from any customer. So this is how GNFC operates. It takes its price, calculates the import parity price, and prices its products. At times, it is at a premium. At times, it is at a discount. For exact premium and discount during the quarter, our colleague Mr. Tejash Shah will respond on that. The second question is on the anti-dumping duty. Anti-dumping duty, just yesterday we came to know, is extended for another five years on the TDI. So, anti-dumping duty is also taken into consideration for the purpose of arriving at an import parity.”

    Clarifies the company's pricing strategy for TDI and the positive impact of the extended anti-dumping duty on realizations.

    asked by Nirav Jimudia

    2 min read6 chapters

    Detailed Narrative

    01

    Q3 FY26 Business Performance Overview

    GNFC's operational income improved in Q3 FY26, driven by increased volumes in both the chemical and fertilizer segments. The fertilizer segment demonstrated stability, with slight improvements in NBS rates and good performance from complex fertilizer and urea volumes, leading to a reduction in segment losses. Conversely, the chemical segment, while achieving better volumes, faced pricing pressure across most products, with TDI being an exception.

    02

    CAPEX Progress and New Approvals

    The company's total ongoing CAPEX projects amount to Rs. 2,800 crores, with Rs. 1,000 crores already spent as of December 2025. The CCPP project is on track for commissioning by end March or early April 2026, expected to generate a net inflow of Rs. 82 crores. Additionally, the Board approved new CAPEX for a fifth boiler at Bharuch, estimated at Rs. 480-500 crores, aiming to boost efficiency from 71-75% to 83%. An extra line from DGVCL/GETCO was also approved to enhance green power utilization and operational stability.

    03

    Cost Optimization Initiatives

    GNFC has engaged A.T. Kearney since October to identify and implement cost savings, targeting a total of Rs. 260-300 crores annually. While some initial savings have been realized, the majority are pending the finalization of contracts with suppliers. A concrete saving of Rs. 5-7 crores has been secured through renewable power purchase agreements, with further annual savings expected upon full contract sign-off.

    04

    TDI Market Dynamics and Production

    GNFC maintains approximately 60% market share in the Indian TDI market, which has a total consumption of about 1 lakh tonnes in foam applications. The company's combined capacity across both plants is 60,000-67,000 tonnes. In Q3 FY26, TDI production was 16,000 metric tonnes, contributing to sales of 30,000 tonnes up to Q3. Management aims to operate at full capacity, and TDI prices have shown an improving trend since January, bolstered by a five-year extension of anti-dumping duties.

    05

    Ammonia Capacity Expansion and Sourcing

    GNFC is expanding its ammonia production capacity by 50,000 tonnes per annum through an ammonia make-up loop to support downstream projects. Despite this expansion, the company anticipates needing to purchase an additional 35,000-40,000 tonnes of ammonia from the external market to meet its overall requirements.

    06

    Raw Material and Pricing Outlook

    The company faces ongoing uncertainty and volatility in methanol prices and availability, a critical raw material for acetic gas. However, the removal of export tax rebates by China is expected to positively impact acetic acid prices in the Indian market. TDI prices are also showing an upward trend globally and domestically, supported by the recent extension of anti-dumping duties for five years.

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