Investing tools
DCF calculator for Indian stocks
Pick a company, see the growth its price already assumes, then change the assumptions and watch the fair value move.
Showing Titan Company. See Titan Company company page →
What the price assumes
Growth trapTo justify its price of ₹4366, this stock must grow earnings at 33% every year for 5 years. Our analysis caps realistic growth at ~16%. At that growth it is worth ₹1919 — downside of 56%.
- Growth the price implies
- 32.9% a year
- for 5 years, fading to 5%
- It has actually compounded at
- 15.7% a year
- net profit, FY23–FY26 · EPS 16.0%
- The gap
- 0.2 pp
- -56% downside if it only repeats history
Why this baseline, and what it is built on
Titan has demonstrated strong historical TTM sales growth, with the latest at 15.88%. Management explicitly guides for 15% to 20% CAGR for jewellery sales over the next three to four years, which is a significant portion of their business. While the promise track record is mixed with some revisions and dilutions, the explicit and strong growth guidance, coupled with recent performance, supports a g1 of 16.0%, taking a conservative mid-point of the guidance. The company has higher leverage compared to peers, and a mixed track record, leading to a slightly higher discount rate of 11%. A 5-year stage-1 growth period with a 4-year fade to a 5% terminal growth rate is chosen to reflect the higher growth potential.
Through 2026-03-31
Your assumptions
Change any of these and the value moves. A valuation that flips on a one-point change in the required return is telling you something.
Value on these assumptions
₹1,924.56
Against today's price
-56%
9 projected years, then a terminal value at 5.0%.
Normalized net profit is discounted as a proxy for owner earnings, not full free cash flow. An analytical tool, not investment advice.
How to read this valuation
- Start from the price, not the forecast. A normal DCF asks you to guess growth and hands back a fair value. Run backwards, it takes today's price and solves for the earnings growth the market is already assuming.
- Compare that with what the company has done. The historical profit and EPS CAGR sit beside the implied number. A price that needs 25% a year from a business that has compounded at 10% is asking a lot, and the gap is the risk you are taking on.
- Then apply your own view. Change the growth rate, how long it lasts, how it fades and the return you require. A valuation that flips on a one-point change in the discount rate is telling you something about itself.
- Mind the caveats. Normalized net profit stands in for owner earnings, not full free cash flow; terminal growth is capped at 6%, roughly nominal GDP; cyclicals are flagged because a peak-earnings base overstates value. This is an analytical tool, not investment advice.